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Starco Brands LA Bowl Hosted By Gronk: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Mountain West will look to win its third straight LA Bowl as Boise State takes on UCLA. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
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Will the Broncos leave the City of Angels with their second straight bowl win?
STARCO BRANDS LA BOWL HOSTED BY GRONK: UCLA Bruins (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12) vs. Boise State Broncos (8-5, 6-2 Mountain West)
WHEN: Saturday, December 16 — 4:30 PM PT/5:30 PM MT
WHERE: SoFi Stadium; Inglewood, CA
WEATHER: Mostly sunny, high of 76 degrees (note: game indoors)
TV: ABC
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ABC, by following this link.
RADIO: The UCLA broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the UCLA Sports Network, including flagship 570 AM (KLAC) in Los Angeles. The Boise State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Bronco Radio Network, including flagship KBOI (670 AM and 93.1 FM) in Boise.
SERIES RECORD: UCLA leads the all-time series, 1-0. In the lone previous meeting on September 4, 1999, the Bruins defeated the Broncos, 38-7, in Pasadena.
LAST GAME: Boise State defeated UNLV on the road in the Mountain West football championship game, 44-20, while UCLA lost to Cal at home, 33-7.
WEBSITES: UCLABruins.com, the official UCLA athletics website | BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): UCLA | Boise State
ODDS: UCLA -4
SP+ PROJECTION: UCLA by 0.5
FEI PROJECTION: UCLA by 1.0
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: UCLA 80.46% win probability (31.93-20.55)
The second Mountain West game of the opening weekend of bowl games pairs the UCLA Bruins against the Boise State Broncos in Los Angeles on Saturday evening.
The Broncos have the opportunity to end the Bruins era in the PAC-12 with a loss and accomplish their final remaining season goal of winning a bowl game. This won’t be an easy task as UCLA is a talented team playing a virtual home game as SoFi Stadium is actually closer to campus than Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena.
Here’s how newly promoted head coach Spencer Danielson and the Broncos can get it done on Saturday against UCLA, as well as how the Bruins can handle business against Boise State.
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Three Keys to a UCLA Victory
1. Make sure the Murphy twins introduce themselves (rudely) to Boise State’s new quarterback.
Though star defensive end Laiatu Latu won’t take the field in the game, the Bruins have plenty of defenders who should be in a position to test Boise State freshman CJ Tiller, one of the team’s top 2023 recruits and the likely starter at quarterback for the bowl. After all, this is still a front seven that generated a 14.6% havoc rate in the regular season.
Chief among the remaining cohort are the Murphys, Grayson and Gabriel, who have combined for 11 sacks, 22.5 tackles for loss, and (per PFF) 63 quarterback hurries. How often they can get the upper hand against Broncos offensive tackles Kage Casey and Cade Beresford, who have given up 36 combined hurries but just four sacks, will be a critical factor for the Bruins.
2. Don’t waste red zone trips.
UCLA has often betrayed themselves inside the opponents’ 20-yard line this fall, ending the regular season by converting just 61.8% of their 55 red zone opportunities into points, the worst rate in the country. That problem has been magnified throughout the team’s recent slide, too, because the Bruins scored only seven touchdowns on 19 red zone tries in November.
As Action Network’s Brett McMurphy recently noted, Boise State has scored at least 30 points in ten of their last 11 games, so UCLA cannot afford to let chances fall by the wayside.
3. Re-establish the running game.
While the running back duo of Carson Steele and T.J. Harden both averaged over five yards per carry throughout the regular season, both have experienced a dip in production in recent weeks: Steele managed just 4.02 YPC in November while Harden’s 5.33 YPC average in that stretch is buoyed by a big performance in the team’s win over USC.
Turning that around against a Broncos defense that shut down some of the Mountain West’s most potent running games in the second half could be easier said than done, but UCLA probably can’t afford to put the game entirely in the hands of quarterback Ethan Garbers. Boise State hasn’t often been beaten in the trenches this fall, but they have given up an average of 4.79 YPC in their five losses (compared to 3.38 in eight wins).
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Three Keys to a Boise State Victory
1. Get ahead of the chains with an effective run game.
Boise State got great news recently when star running back Ashton Jeanty announced he will return to The Blue for another year. Jeanty and fellow back George Holani have teamed up to form one of the most effective backfield tandems in the FBS, combining for nearly 2,600 yards from scrimmage and 24 touchdowns. In the Mountain West championship game, the Broncos ran the ball 51 times for 301 yards, good for 5.9 yards per carry, and three touchdowns. The offensive line and offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan also had one of their best outings of the year.
Two major challenges stand in the way of the Broncos accomplishing this key. The first is the departure of dual-threat quarterback Taylen Green who recently entered the transfer portal and announced his commitment to Arkansas. The second is the fact that they are facing the third-ranked rushing defense in the FBS, though it is not quite as complete personnel-wise as it was throughout the regular season.
2. Reduce the pressure on CJ Tiller.
Head coach Spencer Danielson announced true freshman quarterback CJ Tiller will get the start under center with Green’s departure. Tiller has played just two snaps thus far in his college career and has zero pass attempts. Hamdan’s gameplan will be paramount in allowing CJ to get comfortable in his elevated role.
The Broncos’ stout run game outlined above will be key to getting Tiller off to a good start. Expect the talented freshman to utilize play action to slow down the Bruins’ pass rush and allow him time to process his reads and hit targets downfield. The recent announcement by UCLA star defender Laiatu Latu that he will forgo the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft should certainly help the true freshman feel more secure in the pocket on Saturday.
3. Contain UCLA’s athleticism.
It may be a tiresome narrative, but the Bruins have excellent athleticism, as you would expect from a P5 program despite their 7-5 record. Both contests against Power 5 competition this season showed that even with their high-level Mountain West recruiting, there is still a gap between the Broncos and P5 talent at some positions. Some of the issues likely arose from young players on the defense learning on the job and thus not feeling confident enough to play fast and free. It can also be reasoned that their contest against the University of Washington could be thrown out, as they have shown themselves to be above the rest of the FBS in ability, as they are slated to take on Texas in the College Football Playoff Semifinal.
Boise State defensive backs have been especially susceptible to athletic wide receivers running vertical routes. While the safeties and corners have shown marked improvement throughout the season, they still seem to have a play or two per game where they allow a receiver behind them. While the Bruins don’t have the most prolific passing attack, they will undoubtedly take shots deep to test this secondary.
Prediction
While the Broncos have made seemingly countless trips to the desert for the Las Vegas Bowl, the previous bowl destination for the Mountain West champion, this is their first trip to the relatively new LA Bowl. Look for Danielson to once again inspire the team to play for their seniors and do just enough to leave Los Angeles with a victory, behind a solid ground game and a sound defensive effort complete with a couple of turnovers.
Boise State 30, UCLA 24
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