Chances – Syndication Server

Ranking all 32 NFL teams (including the Saints) by playoff probability

Ranking all 32 NFL teams (including the long-shot New Orleans Saints) by playoff probability going into Week 17:

Derek Carr and Dennis Allen haven’t exactly guided the New Orleans Saints to the playoffs. They’re facing elimination from the postseason altogether on Sunday; a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would put the NFC South out of reach, and a couple of other games’ results could put the final nails in their coffin.

ESPN’s NFL Football Power Index gives the Saints a 10.9% chance of reaching the playoffs going into Week 17. If New Orleans can’t win the NFC South, they’ll need both the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks to lose out in the final two weeks so they can get that seventh wild-card spot. It isn’t very likely.

Here’s where the Saints rank among the rest of the league per ESPN’s playoff percentages:

Saints’ loss to Falcons hurt their playoff chances, but they aren’t out yet

The Saints’ loss to the Falcons hurt their playoff chances, but they aren’t out yet. A weak schedule is keeping their postseason hopes alive:

A weak schedule is the gift that keeps on giving — or at least one that can keep a bad New Orleans Saints team in the hunt for a playoff seed. The Saints’ loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12 hurt their chances, but they aren’t out of the playoff picture just yet.

ESPN’s Football Power Index predictions give the Saints and Falcons an equal chance of winning the division (42%) with New Orleans slightly ahead (49% to 47%) when it comes to making the playoffs. That suggests the Saints are seen as the team more likely to squeeze in as a wild-card seed should they fail to win the division, but each team’s best path to the postseason runs through the NFC South.

It would take a miracle (and a lot of incompetence from the other wild card hopefuls in the conference) for either the Saints or the Falcons to lose the division and still get into the playoffs. They need the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, and Seattle Seahawks to start losing games.

What are other forecasts saying? The New York Times playoff simulator gives Atlanta a 60% chance of making the playoffs with New Orleans behind at 43%, fueled by a 55% chance of the Falcons winning the division compared to a 34% shot for the Saints. It’s a more competitive race than other division title fights around the league, but not by much, and neither team is very impressive with their 5-6 records.

The Saints haven’t been in control of their own destiny for very long this season, and when they have had chances they’ve ended up fumbling them. The stakes are high with just six games left to play.

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Just like last year, 4-6 Packers still very much alive in NFC playoff race

The Packers just won a big game at Lambeau Field and are still alive at 4-6. It’s 2022 all over again in Green Bay.

The Green Bay Packers are 4-6 after a big win at Lambeau Field and still very much alive in the NFC playoff race.

This would describe the 2022 Packers but also the 2023 Packers after 10 games.

Last season, the Packers scored an overtime win over Mike McCarthy and the visiting Dallas Cowboys in Green Bay to improve to 4-6, lost two straight games to fall to 4-8, won four-straight games to get to 8-8 but then lost a win-and-in season finale.

The 2023 Packers got the first part of the equation done Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers, coming from behind in the fourth quarter to steal a 23-20 win over Justin Herbert. Matt LaFleur’s team is now 4-6 and in eighth place in the NFC but also staring at a two-game stretch against the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs.

According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Packers’ playoff chances rose from 10 percent last week to 24 percent entering Week 12.

(Enter Undertaker meme.)

With a win over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, the percentage would rise to around 45 percent.

Even with losses to the Lions and Chiefs, the 4-8 Packers wouldn’t be dead because of the schedule. Green Bay faces the New York Giants (3-8), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6), Carolina Panthers (1-9), Minnesota Vikings (6-5) and Chicago Bears (3-8) over the final five. Falling to 4-8 but winning the final five to get to 9-8 would give the Packers a 91 percent chance of making the postseason.

Current NFC playoff standings

1. Eagles (8-1)
2. Lions (8-2)
3. 49ers (7-3)
4. Saints (5-5)
5. Cowboys (7-3)
6. Seahawks (6-4)
7. Vikings (6-5)
8. Packers (4-6)

Of course, last year’s run didn’t end in a postseason appearance. But rebounding from 4-6 and getting back into the playoff hunt in the first year with Jordan Love as the quarterback would be far different than doing so in the final year of the Aaron Rodgers era.

The Packers have won two of three games, avoided the rock bottom scenario and given themselves a chance to be in the hunt over the final seven games. There’s a long way to go, and it will be challenging to carry over built-up momentum against two terrific teams. There’s also no guaranteeing the Packers — who have lost to plenty of average teams already this season and still haven’t won two games in a row — will be capable of ripping off multiple wins during the stretch run, no matter the opponents.

But the Packers have a chance. Love is playing his best football of the season. The rookie playmakers on offense have come alive in a big way. The defense got some lucky breaks but also stopped a top quarterback late on Sunday.

Can LaFleur’s team steal a game against the Lions or Chiefs and win a bunch of games against a favorable five-game schedule to finish the season? While still a long shot, the 4-6 Packers are still alive and have a path to the postseason.

Updating the Saints playoff odds after sweeping the Falcons

Believe it or not, the Saints still have a path to the playoffs. Various projections updated their chances after sweeping the Falcons amid a floundering NFC South:

Believe it or not, the New Orleans Saints still have a path to the playoffs. They’ll need a lot of help from other teams, and they need to help themselves by winning more games, but they have a better chance now than they did a week ago.

Various projections updated the Saints’ playoff chances after they swept the Atlanta Falcons amid a floundering NFC South. On a Sunday in which every team but New Orleans went home with a loss, the Saints kept their playoff window open ever so slightly. Their fortunes hinge on winning the division rather than claiming a wild-card spot.

Now, they’re far from favored to reach the postseason. We’re just saying there’s a chance. See for yourself where the Saints stack up against the other NFC South teams, and the r:

Chiefs players who helped or hurt their chances for 53-man roster in preseason Week 3

We take a quick look at seven #Chiefs players who either helped or hurt their 53-man roster chances in preseason Week 3:

The Kansas City Chiefs have completed the 2022 NFL preseason with a 17-10 win over the Green Bay Packers at Arrowhead Stadium.

This final exhibition game served as the last opportunity for many players to showcase their talents and put some good snaps on tape for the Chiefs’ coaching staff and scouting staff to evaluate. So who exactly helped and hurt their chances of making the team during the course of this game?

We take a look at seven players down below:

Notre Dame’s updated road map to College Football Playoff

What do you think should need to happen to get Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff?

Notre Dame checked in sixth this week in the College Football Playoff rankings with two teams ahead of them set to play this weekend and another pair set to play next weekend. It seems like the Irish have a great shot at making the CFP for a third time in four seasons upon hearing that, right?

To quote Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend!”

Although those are the facts today, seemingly everything you hear appears to be hell-bent on a one-loss Big 12 champion (Oklahoma or Oklahoma State) moving past Notre Dame. The Irish will have to hope for whoever wins the Bedlam matchup this weekend to fall in next weekend’s Big 12 championship.

Here is the updated Notre Dame road map to the College Football Playoff after the week 12 CFP rankings were released with all percentages courtesy of the FiveThirtyEight college football tracker.

Notre Dame’s updated path to the College Football Playoff

It might not be likely but you’re at least able to see a path now.

Oh, and Go @thebadgerswire! Huge Wisconsin fans here.

Notre Dame got through the their road test at Virginia without issue as they steamrolled the shorthanded Cavaliers, 28-3. It wasn’t the prettiest of showings but it worked as the Fighting Irish defense but on a display against freshman quarterback Jay Woolfolk.

Now Notre Dame will sit and wait to see where they check-in with the latest set of College Football rankings as the new ones will be released on Tuesday night.

As long as they don’t fall though (and why would they?) the Irish should be in as good of shape as they could possibly ask for at this point.

Here is our weekly Notre Dame road map to the College Football Playoff this week, courtesy of the prediction machine at FiveThirtyEight:

Data Analysts FiveThirtyEight reveal Alabama’s updated statistical chances of making CFP

The statistics starting to look better… time to keep crunching the numbers!

The Alabama Crimson Tide earned their sixth win of the season on the road this past Saturday against Mississippi State, which boosted them up one spot as the current No. 4 team in the nation.

While they are inside the top-four teams in the nation, they sit just on the cusp. One misstep, or a potential loss in the SEC Championship game could lead to the Crimson Tide missing out on the College Football Playoff, which has only happened once in the Playoff-era back in 2019.

FiveThirtyEight, a data firm, reveals the updated statistical likelihood of Alabama making their way back into the top-four to make the playoff and compete for national championship No. 19.

According to the numbers, Nick Saban and Alabama have a 31% chance to win the SEC title, a 44% chance to make the playoff and a 17% chance to win the national championship.

All of the aforementioned statistics improved from their previous findings last week.

While Alabama has the third-best odds to make the playoff, they have the second-best chances to win it all. Seems like all they need to do is work themselves into a position where they can compete.

Roll Tide Wire will continue to follow the Crimson Tide football team as they seek out national title No. 19.

Contact/Follow us @RollTideWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Alabama news, notes and opinion. You can also follow AJ Spurr on Twitter @SpurrFM.

Notre Dame’s CFP chances not entirely dead yet according to FiveThirtyEight

So you’re telling me there’s a chance?

No. 14 Notre Dame’s loss to Cincinnati for all intents and purposes ended the Fighting Irish dream of getting back to the College Football Playoff for a third time in four seasons. Logic would tell us that there is simply too much to have to overcome for Brian Kelly and his squad to have that happen.

However, just what kind of chances does Notre Dame have in making the seemingly impossible become possible?

FiveThirtyEight has put together a formula to project each team’s odds at making the College Football Playoff and gives you the chance to see each team’s odds if they’re to win their next game or win out.

Here’s who the formula says are the odds on favorites to make the CFP and win the national title as we get a look at Notre Dame and the rest of college football’s chances entering week seven: