Tag: playoff odds

Saints’ playoff chances drop significantly after loss to Rams

The Saints are still in the playoff race but their loss to the Rams significantly impacted their playoff probability.

The New Orleans Saints entered Week 16 with a 41% chance to make the playoffs. With a loss to the Los Angeles Rams last Thursday night, their playoff probability dropped significantly, down to 24%. In comparison, a win would have elevated their playoff probability to 70%. The way it happened was disheartening, but New Orleans could always afford a loss on Thursday.

The stark difference between their playoff probabilities represents the route they’d likely have to take. Their loss to the Rams puts the Saints wild card hopes in doubt. The divisional title is still very much in play. New Orleans finishes the season with divisional games against Buccaneers and Falcons. Wins in those games will likely secure a playoff spot. New Orleans must win out for a divisional title or, less likely, a wild card seed.

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Dolphins playoff and top-seed odds ahead of matchup with the Cowboys

What are the chances that the Dolphins make the playoffs AND take the top seed in the AFC heading into Week 16?

The Miami Dolphins have done well through the first 15 weeks of the season, as they’ve put together a 10-4 record that has them in second place in the AFC heading into their matchup with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon.

With only three games left in the regular season, the New York Times has a playoff simulator that gives the odds of teams making the postseason, as well as if they’ll have a bye week, host a wild-card game or be the team hosted on wild-card weekend.

Based on 240,000 simulations, the Dolphins have a 99% chance of making the postseason. With that, they have a 12% chance of being the top seed in the AFC and securing a first-round bye week. They have an 86% chance of playing on wild-card weekend (47% as the host and 39% as the visitor).

A win over the Cowboys gives Miami a 19% chance of being the first seed, but obviously, other results could make their odds better or worse.

The Dolphins’ chances of taking the top spot in the conference fell despite their win over the New York Jets last week (dropping from 14% to 12%). They have a lot to prove over their last three weeks with three playoff/Super Bowl contenders on the schedule. If Miami wins out, they’ll pass the Baltimore Ravens and earn a first-round bye.

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Every NFL team’s playoff odds going into Week 16 (including the Saints)

Every NFL team’s playoff odds going into Week 16, including the Saints:

We’re moving quickly now with the end of the NFL regular season in sight, and the playoff picture is rapidly taking shape. Some teams have already clinched a postseason berth. But there are still many teams in the hunt for a coveted playoff seed.

So what do their chances look like? What are the New Orleans Saints’ playoff odds, and those of every other team? Here’s a look at all 32 squads with odds from the New York Times NFL playoff simulator:

Rams vs. Saints carries massive playoff implications for both teams

Thursday night’s matchup between the Rams and Saints is virtually a playoff game for both teams

There weren’t many people circling Rams-Saints on their calendars a month ago, but thanks to a 4-1 stretch by the Rams and back-to-back wins by the Saints, both teams come into this Week 16 matchup at 7-7.

The Rams are seventh in the NFC and the Saints are eighth, making his a game with massive playoff implications. As a prime-time matchup on Thursday night, the NFL is probably thrilled it decided not to flex Rams-Saints out.

It’s not a win-and-you’re-in situation for either team, and neither will be eliminated with a loss, but the team that comes away victorious on Thursday night will have a clear path to the postseason. Currently, the Rams have a 52% chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times. With a win, their postseason odds jump to 74%. Great, right? Well, on the flipside, a loss sends their playoff odds plummeting to only 12%.

That’s all dependent on the other results in Week 16, mainly pertaining to the Seahawks, Packers, Vikings and Buccaneers, but Los Angeles’ postseason odds will be severely impacted by a loss.

  • Rams’ current playoff odds: 52%
  • Rams’ playoff odds with win: 74%
  • Rams’ playoff odds with loss: 12%

It’s a similar story for the Saints, who are in a better position than the Rams thanks to the NFC South being a much weaker division than the NFC West, which has already been locked up by the 49ers.

If the Saints win, their odds improve from 45% to 79%. If they lose, they drop to 26%.

  • Saints’ current playoff odds: 45%
  • Saints’ playoff odds with win: 79%
  • Saints’ playoff odds with loss: 26%

These may not be viewed as two of the better teams in the NFL, but Thursday night’s showdown at SoFi Stadium carries huge playoff implications. It’s virtually a playoff game because the loser will have a difficult time getting into the postseason unless there are some unexpected upsets the rest of the way.

Dolphins playoff and top-seed odds ahead of matchup with the Jets

What are the chances that the Dolphins make the playoffs AND take the top seed in the AFC heading into Week 15?

The Miami Dolphins have done well through the first 14 weeks of the season, as they’ve put together a 9-4 record that has them in second place in the AFC heading into their matchup with the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.

With only four games left in the regular season, the New York Times has a playoff simulator that gives the odds of teams making the postseason, as well as if they’ll have a bye week, host a wild-card game or be the team hosted on wild-card weekend.

Based on 60, 921 simulations, the Dolphins have a 97% chance of making the postseason. With that, they have a 14% chance of being the top seed in the AFC and securing a first-round bye week. They have a 88% chance of playing on wild-card weekend (62% as the host and 22% as the visitor).

A win over the Jets gives Miami a 17% chance of being the first seed, but obviously, other results could make their odds better or worse.

The Dolphins took a tough loss to the Tennessee Titans last week that dropped their first-place odds from 37%, so they have a lot to prove, especially with two games against two teams with the best record in the league (the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys) still on the schedule.

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Dolphins playoff and top-seed odds ahead of matchup with the Titans

What are the chances that the Dolphins make the playoffs AND take the top seed in the AFC?

The Miami Dolphins have done well through the first 13 weeks of the season, as they’ve put together a 9-3 record that has them in first place in the AFC heading into their matchup with the Tennessee Titans on Monday night.

With only five games left in the regular season, the New York Times has a playoff simulator that gives the odds of teams making the postseason, as well as if they’ll have a bye week, host a wild-card game or be the team hosted on wild-card weekend.

Based on 390,000 simulations, the Dolphins have better than a 99% chance of making the playoffs. With that, they have a 33% chance of being the top seed and securing a first-round bye week. They have a 66% chance of playing on wild-card weekend (63% as the host and 3% as the visitor).

A win over the Titans gives Miami a 37% chance of being the first seed, but obviously, other results could make their odds better or worse.

Now, the Dolphins will just need to beat the winning teams remaining on their schedule (currently the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys) to prove that they can beat some contenders and feel good about their upcoming battles in the postseason.

NFL teams (including the Falcons) ranked by playoff probability with 5 weeks left

All 32 NFL teams (including the Falcons) ranked by playoff probability with 5 week left in the 2023 season

The Atlanta Falcons (6-6) don’t appear to be a Super Bowl contender this season, but the team has a clear shot at making the playoffs as the NFC South division leader after 12 games.

With five games remaining, there are more than a handful of teams who are still very much alive in the postseason race. So which teams are most likely to be playing postseason football in January?

Here are all 32 teams ranked by their probability of making the playoffs based on ESPN’s Football Power Index.

Lions playoff probability is near 100 percent

The ESPN Football Power Index gives the Lions over a 98 percent chance to make the playoffs

It’s been a few years since the Detroit Lions were in the NFL postseason. The 2016 Lions, under Jim Caldwell, were the last to make the playoffs.

According to ESPN’s latest Football Power Index, the drought will end this year. The 9-3 Lions carry a probability of making the postseason of 98.5 percent. Winning the first NFC North title in franchise history carries an 89.5 percent probability, too.

It makes sense. With five weeks left, Detroit has a three-game lead on the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings, who are both 6-6.

Once in the postseason, the Lions carry over a 60 percent chance to win their first game, according to the ESPN index. That’s the seventh-highest in the league. The probability of advancing beyond the divisional round falls off precipitously, but that’s true of every NFC team not named San Francisco.

As for the Super Bowl? Detroit’s 2 percent probability of winning the NFL title ranks eighth.

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Packers can drastically improve playoff chances with upset win over Chiefs

The Packers don’t necessarily need a win over the Chiefs to remain playoff relevant, but an upset Sunday night would be a huge boost to their playoff odds.

A win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night at Lambeau Field might not be required for the Green Bay Packers to eventually make the postseason in the NFC, but an upset of the defending Super Bowl champions would provide a fourth win in five games, a second consecutive upset over a current playoff team and drastically increase the team’s chances of qualifying for the postseason come the end of the regular season.

According to New York Times playoff predictor, the Packers’ odds of making the playoffs sit at 55 percent entering Sunday night. Other results in the early and late afternoon time slots in Week 13 will affect the percentage by a few points here or there, but the big one is obviously “Sunday Night Football.” Per NYT, the Packers’ odds would shoot up to 72 or 73 percent if they beat the Chiefs to finish Sunday’s games.

A win would improve the Packers to 6-6 after 12 games and set up Matt LaFleur’s team incredibly well over the friendly five-game finish to the regular season.

Packers final 5 games

Week 14: at New York Giants
Week 15: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 16: at Carolina Panthers
Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings
Week 18: vs. Chicago Bears

The two teams the Packers are chasing in the NFC wildcard race are the Seahawks, who lost on Thursday night and are now 6-6, and the Vikings, who are also 6-6 and on a bye.

Again, an upset on Sunday night isn’t necessarily required for a playoff push. The Packers can lose, fall to 5-7 and still have five winnable games and a legitimate chance to get to 10-7 or 9-8. But the math and projection changes drastically if the Chiefs go down at Lambeau Field. While the NFL is a week to week league and matchups can change in an instant, the Packers — especially with a win over the Chiefs in Week 13 — would likely be favored in each of the final five games.

A big chance awaits the Packers. Can LaFleur’s team knock off one of the top seeds in the playoff race for a second straight week and establish themselves as a team to be feared down the stretch?

Packers nearly double playoff odds by upsetting Lions on Thanksgiving

The Packers playoff odds sit at nearly 50 percent after upsetting the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

The Green Bay Packers upset the Detroit Lions, improved to 5-6 and nearly doubled their chances of making the playoffs on Thanksgiving Day.

The 29-22 win over the Lions was the Packers’ third win in the last four games. At 2-5, the Packers looked dead in the water. A month later, Matt LaFleur’s team is alive and well.

The Packers entered Week 12 with a 24 percent chance of making the playoffs, via the playoff simulator at the New York Times. Not great, but far from of it. The upset win at Ford Field was season changing. The Packers’ playoff odds improved to 45 percent after beating the Lions.

At 5-6, the Packers are the No. 8 seed in the NFC and one game back of the Seattle Seahawks for the final wildcard spot.

Why was the win over the Lions so important? The Packers now have a legitimate shot at getting to 10 wins and the path to the postseason is increasingly clear.

While a visit from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be tough next week, the final five-game stretch is manageable: at New York Giants, vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Carolina Panthers, at Minnesota Vikings and vs. Chicago Bears.

Per the New York Times, if the Packers lose to the Chiefs next week but then win five straight games to end the season, the team’s chances of making the playoffs would be close to 100 percent. Even if the Packers lose to the Chiefs and win four of the five six games, their odds end up around 75-80 percent in the simulator.

Long story short, the Packers going 4-2 or 5-1 to finish the season provides a clear path to the postseason. Beating the Lions was a critical piece of the puzzle. They stole a game no one was expecting them to win and are playing their best football at a critical part of the schedule. What was a long shot is now readily available for the Packers.