Playoff Picture – Syndication Server

Podcast: Derek Carr, Saints hitting their stride before Week 18 Falcons game

Derek Carr, Saints hitting their stride, but there’s still much to prove entering showdown with Falcons

This week’s Saints Wire podcast is live with managing editor John Sigler (@john_siglerr) and our host Ryan O’Leary (@RyanOLearySMG) recapping the New Orleans Saints’ stunning road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — a win that kept the Saints’ playoff hopes alive.

But how likely is it for New Orleans to reach the postseason? Which games need to break their way in Week 18? And what’s the outlook for their pivotal rematch with the same Atlanta Falcons team that beat them earlier this year?

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Jaguars interested in ‘only one’ playoff scenario: Win and in

Doug Pederson is only interested in one path to the playoffs for the Jaguars.

There are two paths to the postseason for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who currently sit atop a three-way tie for the AFC South lead. They could beat the Tennessee Titans on Sunday and defend their title as division champs. The other scenario isn’t one Jaguars coach Doug Pederson is interested in thinking about.

“There’s only one,” Pederson said. “There’s only one that matters right now for us. … That’s all I need to tell the team. There’s nothing other than trying to win this game on Sunday.”

If the Jaguars manage to beat the Titans in Nashville on Sunday, they’d own the No. 4 seed in the AFC and host the Cleveland Browns in the wild card round.

There is a backdoor into the postseason if Jacksonville loses, though. If the Baltimore Ravens, who have secured the No. 1 seed, beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday, the Jaguars would only need the Las Vegas Raiders to beat the Denver Broncos on Sunday if they lose to the Titans.

“I’m not going to cloud their mind with stuff,” Pederson said. “Obviously, our focus is trying to beat Tennessee and regardless of records and who’s playing and who’s not playing, this is always a really good football game and it’s a four-quarter game. That’s our focus right now.”

The Jaguars have won the AFC South just twice since its creation in 2002 and never in back-to-back seasons. During their tenure in the AFC Central, Jacksonville won the division title in the 1998 and 1999 seasons.

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Updating Saints’ playoff odds after beating the Buccaneers

How did beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers change the New Orleans Saints’ playoff odds? Here’s the outlook after Week 17:

The odds aren’t in their favor, but that isn’t going to cause the New Orleans Saints to keel over and give up. The New York Times Playoff Picture simulator tripled their odds of reaching the postseason after Sunday’s win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Now the Saints have a 37% shot at making the playoffs, largely due to their 27% chance of winning the NFC South. It’s technically possible the Saints could earn the seventh playoff seed as a wild card team in the NFC, but it’s very, very unlikely — this simulator gives them less than a 1% shot at it. They’ll need help from two or three other games to clinch it.

Still, the Saints don’t control their own destiny. The reason their chances of winning the division and reaching the playoffs are so low is because they’ll need the Buccaneers to lose again in Week 18 even if New Orleans defeats the Atlanta Falcons. They dug quite a hole for themselves and now they’ll need help getting out of it. They have a chance, and at this point it’s all fans can ask for.

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Where the Lions fit in the NFC playoff picture with 2 weeks to go

The Lions are the 3 seed but could move up, while the potential first-round opponent is still very much undecided

The kings of the NFC North got to watch two games on Christmas that were of unusual importance for them. The Detroit Lions had a lot of interest in the outcomes of games involving the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.

At the end of Week 16, the Lions are still right where they began the weekend. Detroit is the No. 3 seed in the NFC. They did move closer toward moving up, however.

The 11-4 Lions are now in a three-team tie atop the NFC. The Eagles’ close win over the New York Giants, paired with the Dallas Cowboys losing on Christmas Eve in the final minute in Miami, elevated Philly to the top of the NFC East at 11-4.

The 49ers got smoked at home, 33-19, by the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. San Francisco is now 11-4, too.

Unfortunately for the Lions, Detroit loses all tiebreakers with the Eagles and 49ers in 3-team scenarios. The 49ers have a 9-1 conference record, while Detroit and Philadelphia are 7-3. That gives the 49ers the first tiebreaker and currently the top seed.

The Lions and Eagles have the same conference record (7-3) and identical records against common opponents (3-1). That pushes the tiebreaker to the next criteria, strength of victory. The Eagles edge out Detroit, .479 to .436 in the aggregate record of the team’s they’ve beaten. Philadelphia is the two seed because of that.

The Lions can’t catch the 49ers in tiebreakers. So with two weeks left on the NFL calendar and games at Dallas and home against Minnesota, Detroit will need to get ahead of both San Francisco and Philadelphia in the win column to get the top spot. The path to the two seed involves winding up with a better record than the 49ers and a tie or above the Eagles. Winning over Dallas in Week 17 would give the Lions the edge in common opponent record over the Eagles.

The 49ers visit the Commanders (4-12) and host the Rams (8-7). The Eagles play the Cardinals (3-12) before finishing at the Giants (5-10).

The first-round foe for Detroit is very much up in the air. Currently it would be the Rams, whose win elevated them to 8-7. Seattle is also 8-7, a game ahead of Minnesota, Atlanta, Green Bay and New Orleans for the final spot. Minnesota and Green Bay play in Week 17. Atlanta and New Orleans play in Week 18. Still a lot to be determined in the final two wild card positions.

Dolphins Week 16 rooting guide: Who should Miami support?

The playoffs are just three games aways, so here’s what Dolphins fans, and the team, should be pulling for this weekend.

The Miami Dolphins will spend their Sunday battling the Dallas Cowboys, a team that, like the Dolphins, hasn’t had much success against winning teams but is near the top of the conference.

With a 10-4 record entering Week 16, the Dolphins have a lead in the AFC East and are second in the conference. Other teams will also take the field this weekend, Saturday and Sunday, which will impact Miami’s playoff odds and scenarios with less than a quarter of the season remaining.

Below is our rooting guide for this weekend’s slate of games while the Dolphins take on the Cowboys at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday.

Here are the remaining schedules of teams competing with the Broncos for a playoff spot

Here are the remaining schedules of the teams competing with the Broncos for a playoff spot in the AFC.

The Denver Broncos (7-7) are still alive in the AFC playoff hunt, but they will likely need to win out and get some help from other teams to reach the postseason.

We’re assuming the Baltimore Ravens (11-3), Miami Dolphins (10-4) and Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) will win their respective divisions.

If that happens, the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6), Cleveland Browns (9-5), Cincinnati Bengals (8-6), Indianapolis Colts (8-6), Houston Texans (8-6), Buffalo Bills (8-6) and Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) will be left as Denver’s competition for the final three Wild Card spots.

One of the Jags, Colts or Texans will the AFC South, potentially leaving two of those two teams in contention for a Wild Card seed. So the Broncos will be competing with six teams for three playoff spots.

Denver will close out the regular season against the New England Patriots (3-11), Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) and Las Vegas Raiders (6-8). Today, we’re taking a quick look at the remaining schedules of the teams the Broncos are competing with for one of the AFC’s final playoff seeds.

NFL playoff picture: Broncos have a lot of ground to make up

After losing on Saturday, the Broncos likely need to win out to have a shot of making the NFL playoffs.

Following an ugly 42-17 loss to the Detroit Lions (10-4) on Saturday, the Denver Broncos (7-7) have a lot of ground to make up in a tight AFC playoff race.

The Broncos currently sit as the No. 11 seed in the conference, and only the top seven seeds will reach the postseason. Here’s a look at the AFC’s playoff picture going into Week 16.

Division Leaders

1. Baltimore Ravens (11-3)
2. Miami Dolphins (10-4)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6)

Wild Card Leaders

5. Cleveland Browns (9-5)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)

In the Hunt

8. Houston Texans (8-6)
9. Buffalo Bills (8-6)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)
11. Denver Broncos (7-7)

If the Broncos win out, it’s possible that they could sneak into the playoffs with a 10-7 record. Denver will host the New England Patriots (3-11) in Week 16 and the Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) in Week 17 before going on the road to face the Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) in Week 18 to wrap up the regular season.

The Broncos can still punch a ticket to the postseason, but they will likely need to win out and get some help from other teams now.

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Breaking down the 16 different ways the Lions can clinch a playoff berth in Week 15

When the Detroit Lions host the Denver Broncos on Saturday night, the team has an opportunity to clinch Detroit’s first playoff berth since the 2016 season. Technically, the Lions have 16 different opportunities to wrap up a postseason berth over the Week 15 weekend.

All of the 16 scenarios involve Detroit not losing to Denver. There isn’t a clinching scenario off a Lions’ loss. Technically, there are scenarios where the Lions win and improve to 10-4 but don’t quite clinch a postseason berth. Add the unlikely event of ties into the equation and the pathways to the postseason expand quite a bit, too.

From the NFL, here are all the different scenarios for the Lions to clinch a postseason berth in Week 15:

DET win + SEA loss or tie + GB loss or tie OR
DET win + SEA loss or tie + MIN loss or tie OR
DET win + SEA loss or tie + LAR loss or tie OR
DET win + LAR loss or tie + MIN loss or tie + TB loss OR
DET win + LAR loss or tie + ATL loss or tie + GB loss OR
DET win + LAR loss or tie + MIN loss or tie + ATL loss or tie OR
DET win + GB-TB tie + LAR loss or tie OR
DET tie + TB loss + SEA loss + LAR loss OR
DET tie + GB loss + SEA loss + LAR loss OR
DET tie + LAR loss + SEA loss + ATL loss OR
DET tie + GB loss + SEA loss + ATL loss or tie OR
DET tie + MIN loss + SEA loss + LAR loss OR
DET tie + GB loss + LAR loss + ATL loss or tie + NO loss or tie OR
DET tie + GB-TB tie + MIN loss + SEA loss + LAR tie OR
DET tie + GB-TB tie + MIN loss + SEA loss + ATL loss or tie OR
DET tie + GB-TB tie + MIN loss + LAR loss + ATL loss or tie

As for other games that factor in these scenarios…

Minnesota (7-6) visits Cincinnati (7-6) on Saturday afternoon

Green Bay (6-7) visits Tampa Bay (6-7) on Sunday

Los Angeles (6-7) hosts Washington (4-9) on Sunday

Atlanta (6-7) visits Carolina (1-12)

New Orleans (6-7) visits the New York Giants (5-8)

Playoff Picture: Here’s how Cowboys could take NFC East lead, win out, and still be No. 5

A look at all of the tiebreaker rules and the various scenarios Dallas could find themselves in if they are able to stay red hot throughout the remainder of the regular season. | From @KDDrummondNFL

The Dallas Cowboys are rolling along, now winners of four straight games and six of their last seven contests. The club has strung together 14 straight home victories, dating back to last season and are on a mission to try and earn home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs.

That road is treacherous and unlikely, however Sunday’s results allow the team to dream a little more vividly ahead of Week 14. Thanks to San Francisco’s drubbing of the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys have a chance to take the lead of the NFC East in Week 14. Now it must be stated, a Week 14 lead is not the same thing as control, because even if Dallas has the tiebreaker right now, scheduling quirks means they could win out and still lose the division.

Throw in the fact that Dallas could be win out, win the division, have no team with a better record, and still not earn a bye week and there’s a ton to unpack about the NFC playoff picture.

Buckle up.

NFL playoff picture: Broncos have less room for error now

After losing to the Texans, the Broncos are now 6-6 with a 3-5 conference record. The playoffs are still possible, but it will be tough.

Following a 22-17 loss to the Houston Texans on Sunday, the Denver Broncos are now 6-6 with a 3-5 in-conference record.

Making the playoffs is still possible, but the Broncos will face a tougher road to the postseason now. Houston (7-5) has a better record and a head-to-head tiebreaker, and the Indianapolis Colts (7-5) also won on Sunday.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) did lose in Week 13 and Denver has a head-to-head win over the Cleveland Browns (), but if the Broncos don’t win out, they might need help from other teams to make the playoffs.

Here’s a look at the AFC’s playoff picture after Sunday’s games.

Division Leaders

1. Miami Dolphins (9-3)
2. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-3)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)

Wild Card Leaders

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)
6. Cleveland Browns (7-5)
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-5)

In the Hunt

8. Houston Texans (7-5)
9. Denver Broncos (6-6)
10. Buffalo Bills (6-6)
11. Cincinnati Bengals (5-6)

Up next for the Broncos is a road game against the Los Angeles Chargers (5-7) in Week 14. If Denver is going to keep its playoff hopes alive, the Broncos need to get an in-conference victory next week.

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