The Green Bay Packers are 4-6 after a big win at Lambeau Field and still very much alive in the NFC playoff race.
This would describe the 2022 Packers but also the 2023 Packers after 10 games.
Last season, the Packers scored an overtime win over Mike McCarthy and the visiting Dallas Cowboys in Green Bay to improve to 4-6, lost two straight games to fall to 4-8, won four-straight games to get to 8-8 but then lost a win-and-in season finale.
The 2023 Packers got the first part of the equation done Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers, coming from behind in the fourth quarter to steal a 23-20 win over Justin Herbert. Matt LaFleur’s team is now 4-6 and in eighth place in the NFC but also staring at a two-game stretch against the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs.
According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Packers’ playoff chances rose from 10 percent last week to 24 percent entering Week 12.
(Enter Undertaker meme.)
With a win over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, the percentage would rise to around 45 percent.
Even with losses to the Lions and Chiefs, the 4-8 Packers wouldn’t be dead because of the schedule. Green Bay faces the New York Giants (3-8), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6), Carolina Panthers (1-9), Minnesota Vikings (6-5) and Chicago Bears (3-8) over the final five. Falling to 4-8 but winning the final five to get to 9-8 would give the Packers a 91 percent chance of making the postseason.
Current NFC playoff standings
1. Eagles (8-1)
2. Lions (8-2)
3. 49ers (7-3)
4. Saints (5-5)
5. Cowboys (7-3)
6. Seahawks (6-4)
7. Vikings (6-5)
8. Packers (4-6)
Of course, last year’s run didn’t end in a postseason appearance. But rebounding from 4-6 and getting back into the playoff hunt in the first year with Jordan Love as the quarterback would be far different than doing so in the final year of the Aaron Rodgers era.
The Packers have won two of three games, avoided the rock bottom scenario and given themselves a chance to be in the hunt over the final seven games. There’s a long way to go, and it will be challenging to carry over built-up momentum against two terrific teams. There’s also no guaranteeing the Packers — who have lost to plenty of average teams already this season and still haven’t won two games in a row — will be capable of ripping off multiple wins during the stretch run, no matter the opponents.
But the Packers have a chance. Love is playing his best football of the season. The rookie playmakers on offense have come alive in a big way. The defense got some lucky breaks but also stopped a top quarterback late on Sunday.
Can LaFleur’s team steal a game against the Lions or Chiefs and win a bunch of games against a favorable five-game schedule to finish the season? While still a long shot, the 4-6 Packers are still alive and have a path to the postseason.