Tag: 2022 fantasy football tips

Fantasy football injury outlook: RB Chris Carson, Seahawks

What does the future hold for Carson after neck surgery?

Running back Chris Carson has been one of the great NFL stories in recent lore – a seventh-round draft pick in 2017 with no guarantee of making the Seattle Seahawks‘ roster in the post-Marshawn Lynch era to the featured back who posted back-to-back seasons with more than 1,150 rushing yards. He never seemed to have a career locked down for himself, especially when the Seahawks used a first-round pick in 2018 on RB Rashaad Penny.

Overcoming long odds, Carson was the man and it looked to stay that way — until last season when he suffered a severe neck injury that ended his season after just four games and required a significant surgery to repair the damage. Unlike other routine surgeries, neck injuries are a different topic completely. The can end athletic careers, much less one of running backs who have large men with bad intentions and often a full head of steam chasing them down every time they get their hands on the ball.

[lawrence-related id=466743]

The Seahawks have put no timetable on when – or if – Carson can return. In an interview during Seattle’s OTAs, head coach Pete Carroll referenced Carson in the past tense a couple of times – giving the clear insinuation that he may never be coming back to resume his NFL career. While he said all the right things in terms of the Seahawks players being a family and sticking by their injured brothers when they’re down and uncertain about their future, Carroll sounded much more resigned to the idea Carson may not want to come back to resume his career for quality of life concerns.

His biggest hurdle may end up being Carson’s inability to get medical clearance from the Seahawks’ doctors. In the case of neck injuries, there is a very high standard that needs to be reached before clearance is given, and those types of injuries are the result of as many retirements as returns to field.

The Seahawks re-signed Penny in the offseason to hedge their bets in the event Carson can’t come back from his neck injury and doubled down by drafting Doak Walker Award winner Kenneth Walker III from Michigan State in the second round of the 2022 draft. Seattle has a lot of needs, and quarterbacks were available. That move spoke volumes.

Throw in carryover players DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer and Seattle has a stable of running backs who can get along just fine whether Carson is there or not.

Fantasy football outlook

It’s always tragic when a career is cut short by injury and a player’s dream dies with it in his 20s, but there are other factors that need to come into play outside the entertainment world of the NFL.

Carson fulfilled his dream of playing in the NFL and earning a second contract that potentially sets him up for life after football. Some players are willing to accept the risks, but in this case, don’t be stunned if Carson eventually announces his retirement without every playing again. It may not be in the coming weeks or months, but his fantasy value has dropped off the table, because he doesn’t need to make a business decision. He needs to make a life decision. Carson has no fantasy value at this point.

Fantasy football injury outlook: WR Chris Godwin, Buccaneers

Where does Godwin’s rehab stand, and is he worth the risk in fantasy?

In Week 15 of the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin, the most targeted player in Tampa Bay’s pass-happy offense, suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament. As is often the case, the timetable for returning to full speed from such an injury is nine to 12 months, especially for wide receivers putting a lot of pressure on healthy ligaments when making separation-creating cuts.

In trying to determine the prognosis for any injured player recovering in the offseason, there are two primary factors that are taken into consideration – what is the team saying about the extent of the injury, and did the organization come up with a backup plan.

In the case of the Buccaneers, it was both.

The team sent out a positive sign this spring when, despite the injury, the Buccaneers signed Godwin to a three-year contract extension worth $60 million with $40 million in guarantees. In the salary cap era, teams don’t make that kind of financial commitment without having a high level of confidence that the injured player will return to pre-injury form.

[lawrence-related id=466572]

However, Tampa Bay also signed Russell Gage, formerly of the Atlanta Falcons, to a three-year contract in free agency. Ideally, Gage would be the No. 3 receiver in the offense, but the deal is worth $30 million – a heavy tax to pay for a No. 3 receiver. It would appear that the Bucs wanted to make sure that Tom Brady has the weapons he needs as he returns for another run at a Super Bowl, and TB12 himself recruited Gage, so it’s hard to say if there’s more to it than that….

The arrival of Gage gives Tampa Bay options when it comes to how it approaches the timetable for Godwin’s return. Earlier this month, Bucs officials said that Godwin is progressing well with his timetable to return, which would be little to no contact in training camp and the preseason and determining in Week 1 if he is healed enough to be a full-time player. Gage gives the team insurance either way.

Fantasy football outlook

He hasn’t been seen on the field in real-world football situations, leaving some to speculate as to whether Godwin will be able to be on the field Week 1. Fantasy auctions and drafts will come and go before anyone has a true handle on the level of readiness Godwin has, which could play into the hands of owners who are willing to take some risks.

With the uncertainty, Godwin could be devalued on draft day. At best, he will be a low-end WR2 in a conventional league. That said, all accounts coming out of Tampa Bay say his rehab is going as hoped and his target date for a full return is Week 1. In this case, don’t let his injury prevent you from making a move on him because, as a low-end WR2, he’s a value pick if he’s good to go. Just prepare for a sluggish start to his sixth pro season, and draft accordingly because of his long-term track record of durability issues.

Fantasy football: Checking in on Carolina’s tight end situation

Is there anything of note to be found for fantasy purposes?

If you’re looking for a situation that’s rife with uncertainty and has no shortage of variables, then you have arrived at your destination because seemingly everything with the Carolina Panthers is in a state of flux. That starts at the top where head coach Matt Rhule could be entering a make-or-break campaign just three seasons into a seven-year, $62 million deal that convinced Rhule to leave Baylor.

He’ll turn to Ben McAdoo as his new offensive coordinator, a curious move given McAdoo hasn’t filled a high-profile role since being fired as the New York Giants head coach following the 2017 season. In fairness, he has proven to be a competent play-caller.

Things remain murky at quarterback as well with incumbent Sam Darnold now joined by former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield, who was acquired from the Cleveland Browns, marking the second straight offseason the Panthers have traded for a quarterback from the class of 2018. Beyond an encouraging start, Darnold was mostly unimpressive last year and would seem to be on the outside looking in as we head into training camp despite the expected “open competition” talk.

Mayfield suffered through a difficult 2021 that saw the Browns lose confidence in his ability to lead them where they wanted to go and ultimately prompted a trade for Deshaun Watson. Once that move was made, Mayfield’s fate in Cleveland was sealed. While Mayfield is far from a sure thing, don’t read too much into his struggles last year as he played through a difficult shoulder injury that required offseason surgery to correct. Prior to that, the former Oklahoma Sooner averaged 3,705 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions per season; the turnovers are an issue to be sure, but he’s been more successful than Darnold.

During his time in Cleveland, Mayfield worked with some talented tight ends, most notably David Njoku and Austin Hooper (now with the Tennessee Titans). A year ago, that tandem combined for 74 catches, 820 yards, and seven TDs. Those aren’t huge numbers, but if limiting Mayfield’s interceptions is a focus it could lead to shorter throws to tight ends as well as talented but oft injured running back Christian McCaffrey. With that in mind, let’s look at the top two tight ends in Carolina.

Digging deep: Is there any fantasy football value among Indy’s tight ends?

Can Matt Ryan get the most out of this group?

A season ago while with the Atlanta Falcons, new Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan connected with tight ends Kyle Pitts and Hayden Hurst a combined 94 times. In fact, only once during the veteran’s final five seasons in Atlanta did the team fail to have a tight end catch more than 50 passes in a year — and that was 2017 when current Tennessee Titans tight end Austin Hooper caught 49. Go back even further and you’ll see the prolific numbers Tony Gonzalez put up during his time with the Falcons. Bottom line, Ryan has a long history of targeting his tight ends.

Now the question becomes what does head coach Frank Reich want to do? With four different starting quarterbacks in four years, it’s hard to get a read. In 2018, Andrew Luck’s final year, tight ends were targeted 168 times. In 2019, it was 146. In 2020, it fell to 119. Last season, it was just 103. Clearly, that’s a downward trend, but things could tick upward in 2022 with Ryan taking over a team that has only one established wide receiver in the form of Michael Pittman Jr.

The 6 best late-round rookie running backs in fantasy football

Unheralded rookie running backs who could make an impact.

Running backs often are the lifeblood of fantasy football championship rosters, and it behooves gamers to dig deeper than the next person when searching for an edge.

It’s a weak year for top-end rookie backs, highlighted by the New York Jets’ Breece Hall. Particularly this year, fantasy owners are likely to find value in the second half of drafts. The position is volatile and rife with injuries by year’s end. While knowing the top names is a must, seeing less obvious paths to playing time is arguably more important.

Aside from Hall, Seattle’s Kenneth Walker III (Round 8 ADP) and Buffalo’s James Cook (Round 9) typically round out the first rookie backs chosen. Each has merit in some regards. Walker probably has a more linear avenue to serious playing time, whereas Cook’s role is less clear — he currently profiles as a third-down back and even a slot option. Walker, conversely, offers little as a receiver but is built to handle a larger workload than Cook.

Fantasy football injury outlook: RB Travis Etienne, Jaguars

After missing all of 2021, what can we expect from the former first-round pick?

He wasn’t the first running back to come off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft, but when the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Clemson running back Travis Etienne at pick No. 25 many people were convinced he would be the running back that made the biggest fantasy football impact in his rookie season, alongside college teammate Trevor Lawrence.

But his rookie season ended before it could get started when Etienne suffered a Lisfranc injury to his left foot that required surgery.

Although he is still limited in the amount of work he has been able to do in Jacksonville’s offseason program and he will likely start training camp with some restrictions, he is expected to be fully ready to go. Etienne is stepping into an advantageous spot, considering what happened while he was rehabbing his injury.

[lawrence-related id=466648]

There was some confusion about the type of role Etienne would have in what turned out to be a disastrous 11-month debacle with Urban Meyer as head coach. Few teams use a first-round draft pick on running backs, and those that do tend to immediately make them the featured backs in their offenses. The plan was to use Etienne in a Percy Harvin/Deebo Samuel type of role as both a runner and receiver who could be lined up anywhere on the field. However, that situation has changed dramatically.

When Etienne arrived in Jacksonville, there were questions as to how he would fit with a running game that was led by James Robinson, who had been pressed into unexpected feature back status with the surprise release of Leonard Fournette in the days leading up to the 2020 season opener. Robinson carved out of his own role and posted a 1,000-yard rushing season in 2020 before Etienne’s arrival. However, a 2021 Week 16 injury changed the two-headed backfield plans.

Robinson suffered a torn Achilles in mid-December. The standard timetable (Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers excluded) for a full return from a torn Achilles is nine to 12 months, which could take Robinson well into the regular season to return.

Fantasy football outlook

From the Etienne fantasy perspective, it couldn’t be a better scenario. His rehab has been going extremely well, and he was running full speed at the team’s summer minicamp. While he is still not cleared for full contact, everything coming out from the Jaguars coaches and medical staff is that Etienne will be a full participant when training camp begins, and there aren’t concerns of a recurrence. Many players have suffered Lisfranc injuries that requires screws to be surgically implanted in their injured foot and they come back strong, and most leave the screws in the foot because there is little to no associated pain.

Factoring Robinson likely missing in action early, Etienne’s chances to be a fantasy impact player increase considerably and make him a player to target.

Etienne’s 2021 injury should not be a major concern heading into 2022, and his fantasy draft ranking as a mid- to low-end RB2 is warranted. He offers more value in point-pet-reception scoring.

Fantasy football pros and cons: Kyle Pitts vs. George Kittle vs. Dalton Schultz

Will the winner of this exercise surprise you?

It is widely viewed in ranking fantasy football tight ends that Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs and Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens are in a class of their own atop the tight end depth chart.

The question then becomes, who is in the next tier of tight ends once the top two guys are gone? Before we get into it, Darren Waller is the wild card here. He goes anywhere from the third to sixth tight end chosen, on average, depending upon the ADP source. A more casual league typically translates to an earlier selection, likely due in part to name recognition.

The next three are very different athletes, but each can make an argument to be included near the top. George Kittle, of the San Francisco 49ers, has an impressive track record of fantasy success. The Atlanta Falcons‘ Kyle Pitts is arguably the most explosive talent ever at the position. Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz is so valued by the organization that he was hit with the franchise tag rather than risk losing him.

Fantasy football preview: Miami Dolphins wide receivers

Can Tua Tagovailoa get the most out of his talented receiving corps?

The Miami Dolphins wide receiving corps has undergone an epic turnaround in just 18 months as the team selected Jaylen Waddle with the sixth pick in the 2021 draft, made a blockbuster trade to acquire Tyreek Hill, and used free agency to add Cedrick Wilson.

These changes have put a lot of pressure on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to turn the offense around. This is a critical season for the third-year passer, because there can’t be any excuses since the front office has given him the talent to succeed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running backs: What to expect in fantasy football

Here’s how the Tampa backfield should shake out in 2022.

The running back room for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a different look this season after the team allowed Ronald Jones to leave via free agency.

While the exodus of Jones wasn’t unexpected, it does create a void, since he had been the team’s leading rusher in 2019 and 2020 and was No. 2 to Leonard Fournette last season.

New Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles inherits a veteran, playoff-tested team that won’t have a lot of positional uncertainty. However, the running back battle behind Fournette will have to clear itself out during training camp and the preseason.

We have more than a quarter-century track record of creating fantasy football champs. Sign up for The Huddle today to gain an award-winning edge on the competition!

Fantasy football injury outlook: Odell Beckham Jr.

The timing of OBJ’s injury certainly doesn’t help his cause.

In the early portion of his career, Odell Beckham Jr. was rewriting the history books with the New York Giants. Four years and three teams later, Beckham is at a career crossroads and currently powerless to do anything about it.

Beckham remains an unsigned free agent and likely will be for some time after tearing his left ACL twice in two years. What makes Beckham’s current status different than most players coming back from injury is the timing of when it happened and his contract situation.

When Beckham tore his ACL in late October 2020, it took him 11 months to return. He didn’t make it back on the field until late September 2021. He missed training camp, preseason, and the first two regular season games, which wasn’t unusual. The timetable for coming back from a torn ACL is historically nine to 12 months, depending on the severity. The earlier in a season an injury occurs, the better the chance to be ready for the start of the following year.

[lawrence-related id=466572]

That is what makes the Beckham’s second ACL tear so daunting. It didn’t happen in October or November. It happened Feb. 13, 2022, in Super Bowl LVI. Beckham has recently claimed he played the second half of the 2021 season with the torn ACL, but it wasn’t diagnosed until it tore for good on the biggest stage of them all.

There are two components to Beckham’s recovery that are problematic: The first is the ability of his knee to recover from a second tear in less than 17 months. That’s a lot to ask of a young player, much less a player who turns 30 in November. The healing process slows with time, and there can’t be any setbacks to his progress in rehabilitating the injury, because he’s already likely looking at midseason at a minimum before a potential return.

Second, and perhaps worse, is that Beckham is a free agent. Effectively run out of town in both New York and Cleveland, the Los Angeles Rams signed Beckham for the remainder of 2021 as a mercenary for hire. He isn’t rehabbing at a team facility with its in-house medical personnel. He’s on his own, which creates its own set of issues in trying to get a new contract, but OBJ at least knows what it takes to rehab this specific injury.

Any team willing to pay Beckham before the start of the season will be making an investment on a player who will miss the first half at a minimum. Given how tight salary cap dollars are, especially for established teams with highly paid quarterbacks, there won’t be a robust market to sign Beckham among legitimate contenders unless he’s willing to sign another team-friendly deal like he did with the Rams last year.

Fantasy football outlook

If Beckham wants to have a career that lasts another four or five years, the best advice he can be given is to spend 2022 rehabbing and sign a deal with a team for 2023 when he’s fully healthy. Any team that signs him during this season will be doing so simply to have a part-time guy – and will likely pay accordingly. His best landing spot at this point is to re-sign with the Rams and not rush back. Don’t be shocked if you don’t see OBJ at all this season.

Should he ink with a team prior to the heart of fantasy football draft season, Beckham can be left to the wire in all but the deepest of leagues or those with multiple IR spots. He very well may flash a time or two in 2022, if given the opportunity, it will require a roster spot being absorbed for most of the fantasy campaign. That’s too much risk and not enough return on a draft-day investment.