Breaking down how Chargers running back Isaiah Spiller might do in his rookie season.
The Chargers have developed a type of running back over the last few seasons. Starting with Justin Jackson in 2018, the team has drafted four running backs in the last five seasons. All have been Day 3 picks, all have been between the tackles players, and thus far, none have worked out.
Jackson was probably the best of the group, with a career yards per carry average right at 5. The story with him was always injuries: the former 7th rounder missed more than a third of Chargers games in four seasons. It’s the main reason he wasn’t re-signed this offseason and why he remains a free agent with training camp mere weeks away.
In 2020, Los Angeles knew that they couldn’t rely on Jackson for a full season. They looked down the street, selected UCLA rusher Joshua Kelley in the 4th round, and hoped he would be able to wean some carries from Jackson and Austin Ekeler. To date, Kelley has averaged 3.2 yards per carry and found the end zone just twice. Fumbles and missed blocking assignments on special teams hurt his chances of earning more time.
And so, last season, the Chargers swung again. This time, it was sixth-rounder Larry Rountree III from Missouri, a bruiser if there ever was one. Rountree was going to compete for short yardage carries and take some of the harder hits to keep Ekeler fresh. And then, he averaged 2.4 yards per carry, failing to crack 100 yards on the season despite 36 attempts. His vision looked subpar, he struggled to gain tough yards despite a 220-pound frame, and he wasn’t much better on special teams than Kelley.
All that is how we ended up here. For the fourth time in five years, the Chargers selected a running back in the 4th round or later. For the fourth time in five years, they took a bruising interior runner with questionable third-down value. But something is different about this time because this time, the back the Chargers took was billed as among the best at his position as recently as days before the actual draft.
Texas A&M’s Isaiah Spiller was a hot name for much of the draft cycle last season. No matter where you looked, Spiller, Breece Hall, and Kenneth Walker III were named the top three backs. The question was whether Spiller would be chosen above his classmates, not if he’d make it to Day 3. And yet, the Chargers scooped him up two full rounds after Hall and Walker went to the Jets and Seahawks, respectively.
So, Spiller likely has a chip on his shoulder, as well as a wide-open path to playing time as the thunder to Austin Ekeler’s lightning. What should we expect from the rookie?
Perhaps the easiest place to start would be 2018, back when the Chargers had a running back tandem of Ekeler and 2015 first-round pick Melvin Gordon. That season, Gordon took 175 carries for 885 yards in 12 games, while Ekeler had 106 attempts for 554 yards. Both players eclipsed 400 receiving yards as well. With Ekeler now in the 1A role, let’s assume he takes that heavier load of 175-ish carries, down from 206 last season. That leaves 100-ish carries for Spiller, which could result in a similar line as 2021 rookie Khalil Herbert, who took 103 carries for 433 yards and 2 TDs behind David Montgomery in Chicago.
ESPN projects Spiller for 127 carries for 546 yards and 4 TDs, plus 18 catches for another 131 yards and 1 additional TD. FantasyPros, similarly, has Spiller at 124 carries for 536 yards and four scores, with 18 receptions for 132 yards and 1 TD.
That’s a stat line resembling Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots rookie who took 133 carries for 606 yards and 5 TDs in 12 games. That was good for the fifth-best total amongst rookies last season, mostly behind players who immediately became their team’s featured back. Such a ranking is about the range I expect Spiller to land in as well, considering Hall, Walker, Dameon Pierce, and Tyler Allgeier could all end up RB1 for their respective teams.
It’s also worth noting that both ESPN and FantasyPros have Spiller at more than 4 yards a carry, which would be a tremendous upgrade over Rountree’s 2.4 and Kelley’s 3.1 from 2021. However, Justin Jackson did average 5.4 in relief duty behind Ekeler, albeit over a smaller sample size of just 68 carries.
If Spiller gets 125 carries, is it unreasonable to expect him to get to 600 yards, as Stevenson did? Such a yardage total would be a 4.8 per carry average, which would be better than Stevenson and better than any season Ekeler has posted since 2018. However, there’s precedent to show it’s possible, and the Chargers’ offensive line has improved by adding Zion Johnson this offseason. A 125-carry workload also suggests success in short-yardage situations, so I’d imagine six TDs would be in reach for Spiller.
125 carries for 600 yards and six TDs would undoubtedly be a successful season for Spiller, but it would also be far and away the best season by a non-Ekeler Chargers back since Gordon’s 8-touchdown 2019 campaign. It also assumes a dip in Ekeler’s workload, but remember that the veteran said in OTAs that he wants someone to come to earn reps from him.
We’ll have to wait and see how Spiller produces in 2022, but there’s certainly reason to be optimistic.
