Top-ranked daily fantasy sports pro Jason Mezrahi, founder and CEO of WinDailySports.com, breaks down his favorite DFS plays at various salary ranges for Week 5 of the NFL season.
Even though we have had great results in picking top DFS plays in this article every week, I’m going to let you in on a little secret: Our projection model at WinDailySports.com has been firing on all cylinders for the first three weeks so what I will do in this article is list some of our highest projected players based off raw points and our highest point per dollar plays based on DraftKings.com pricing.
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These are some of the players Jason will be locking in his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s slate.
QUARTERBACKS
DESHAUN WATSON, HOU
$6,900 DRAFTKINGS, $7,900 FANDUEL
We can no longer use the Bill O’Brien excuse in Houston. The man is finally gone and I personally can’t wait for Adam Gase to be dealt the same fate. We can only hope Watson can get back on track this week and come out of the gate with something to prove. Watson has been good but not great to start this year. His schedule had a very tough start with matchups against the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers. The good news is Will Fuller is still healthy and the Jaguars rank 20th against opposing quarterbacks and allow 261 yards passing per game. Coming off a 300-yard, 2-touchdown game should provide some confidence in rostering Watson in Week 5.
Watson provides a safe floor at his price tag and is one of the best values on the entire slate. Vegas has the Texans putting up 30 points and without a elite running game most of those points should be rolling through Watson. We have him only a couple points behind Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen on our projection models currently but, given the discount, we love the value he provides.
MATT RYAN, ATL
$6,100 DRAFTKINGS, $7,700 FANDUEL
The Falcons are struggling mightily and confidence is at a all time low in Atlanta. Ryan is more of a DraftKings only play for me, where I want to price enforce the $6,100 cost for a quarterback with one of the best matchups on the board. If Vegas is right and the Falcons put up 28 points, we can hope that Matt Ryan puts up 3-4 touchdowns in this matchup.
We have to look out for the status of Julio Jones, if he is out I may lower my exposure to Ryan and bump up my exposure to Calvin Ridley and the rest of the receiving core. If Jones is out feel free to pivot down to Daniel Jones or up to Mahomes, Prescott or Jackson in Week 5.
RUNNING BACKS
MIKE DAVIS, CAR
$6,400 DRAFTKINGS, $6,800 FANDUEL
I never would have thought I would be highlighting the two running backs I am about to dive into but here we are in Week 5 of 2020.
I saw a great tweet this past week that read “We are heading into the 4th quarter of 2020, lets hope we are playing the Atlanta Falcons”
Davis and the Panthers are playing the Falcons and you best believe he is salivating due to the opportunity they present. With two touchdowns in his past two games since he took over for Christian McCaffrey, Mike Davis is now a stable force in the Carolina backfield. He has produced over 22 DraftKings points in his past 2 games and now gets the dream matchup versus the Falcons, who cant stop a nose bleed. He might be highly owned but take the 20+ points and lock in Davis in Week 5.
JERICK MCKINNON, SF
$5,800 DRAFTKINGS, $6,400 FANDUEL
McKinnon dominated the backfield touches in Week 4 and has produced in each and every week of this season. This trend should continue in Week 5 with a matchup versus Miami, who rank 19th against opposing running backs.
McKinnon scored a touchdown in each of the four games this season and has averaged 16.6 DraftKings points. It looks like its McKinnon’s backfield after he received 14 of the 17 rushing attempts and also had 9 targets in the passing game. If Mostert is still out in Week 5, look McKinnon’s way and lock in the value in order to pay up at other spots.
WIDE RECEIVERS
DARIUS SLAYTON, NYG
$4,800 DRAFTKINGS, $5,800 FANDUEL
I told myself that I am done rostering any players from the Jets or the Giants for the rest of the season and then I witnessed again how bad the Cowboys defense truly is.
If the Browns can score 49, the Giants should score at least 24 right?
This is truly a play on the Cowboys defense and not the Giants offense. Lets look at what the Cowboys have allowed as far as scoring this year. Here are the game totals: 20, 39, 38 and 49. The targets for Slayton have been there each and every week, but the production has yet to follow. At $4,900 versus this Cowboy defense I am willing to take the calculated risk on Slayton or Evan Engram, who I will mention later in this article.
ROBBIE ANDERSON, CAR
$5,900 DRAFTKINGS, $6,200 FANDUEL
Leading into this season and every week so far to start the season all the hype has been on DJ Moore. The outcome has not lived up to the hype and each and every week the production has been gobbled up by Robbie Anderson.
Averaging 19.7 points on the season, its been obvious to me that Robbie is the No. 1 receiver in this offense and has out-targeted Moore 34-32 with a way higher catch rate. With two 100 yard games (and a 99 yarder), there is a clear rapport with Teddy Bridgewater. He has been a fantasy darling all year and I expect that trend to continue with his plus-matchup against the Falcons in Week 5.
TIGHT ENDS
GEORGE KITTLE, SF
$6,600 DRAFTKINGS, $7,100 FANDUEL
The George Kittle breakout game finally came in Week 4. Kittle is absolute beast and I wouldn’t want to step in his path once he got the ball in his hands, because his goal is to hurt someone.
Coming off a 15-reception, 183-yard game, ownership maybe high, but with all the value on the slate I think this is the week to pay up at tight end and lock in some points. I am fine with either paying up for Kittle or Mark Andrews and avoiding any potential land mines at the value tight end spots.
EVAN ENGRAM, NYG
$4,400 DRAFTKINGS, $5,500 FANDUEL
I don’t like suggesting New York Giants players, but when I do they will be playing against the Dallas Cowboys. Do I have to remind you how bad this defense is? Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry were dropping dimes all over this defense last week as crazy as that sounds.
The Cowboys defense is terrible and their offense is good/potentially great. Which means the Cowboys should open the game up with the lead, allowing the Giants to play catch up the entire game. Engram’s production has seen an uptick lately and he is the best value at the position so lock him in and lets be present for his breakout performance.
DEFENSES
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
$4,200 DRAFTKINGS, $4,800 FANDUEL
How good is Bill Belichick? He is the best in the business and almost beat Patrick Mahomes with a combination of Brian Hoyer and some leftover scraps on offense. There hasn’t been a better coach in my lifetime and he is a defensive wizard who finds ways to disrupt the entire game plan of the opposing offense.
Give Belichick a young quarterback on the opposite side of the field and watch him dismantle their scheme and cause turnovers galore. If you have the cash to spend up at defense, roster Belichick and the Patriots.
HOUSTON TEXANS
$2,600 DRAFTKINGS, $3,700 FANDUEL
We can only hope that the Texans come together and play some inspired ball and cause some havoc for Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars. They are the cheapest defense I am willing to roster. Minshew will make mistakes and cough up the ball Sunday. With 10 sacks on the season, we can hope for 2-4 sacks, 1-2 turnovers and for the Texans to finally win a game and control some clock late. Their defense has been bad to start the year, but their schedule hasn’t been easy. Look for a bounce back performance out of the Texans at home in Week 5.
Jason Mezrahi has been a professional, top-ranked Daily Fantasy Player on FanDuel and DraftKings for more than eight years. He has won FanDuel’s $155,555 King of the Diamond competition and placed second in DraftKings’ Fantasy Basketball World Championship, earning him $300,000. He owns and operates WinDailySports.com, which supports the DFS and Sports Betting community with resources such as tools, projection models, expert chat, in-depth written analysis and podcasts, plus much more.
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