Tag: Win Probability

Beasley’s Revenge: Former Cowboys WR stars in biggest impact plays of Week 13

A look at the Cowboys’ 26-15 loss at home against the Bills, through the lens of EPA and Win Probability metrics from nflscrapR.

The Dallas Cowboys 26-15 loss against the Buffalo Bills was not the worst Thanksgiving defeat in NFL history. That belongs to the Detroit Lions, who lost 47-10 against the Tennessee Titans in 2008. However, the Cowboys’ loss on Thursday seems surreal for a team that seemingly has all the tools be one of the best in the league. The Bills played a sound football game but they benefited from some careless turnovers from the Cowboys. On top of that, head coach Jason Garrett’s unwavering trust in kicker Brett Maher has continued to hurt the team.

It was a stunning loss for the Cowboys. After a score on their opening drive their offense was non-existent. On defense they had no answers for the dynamic duo of quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Cole Beasley. When looking at the biggest plays in the game, this couldn’t be more apparent.

Here is a look using Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) models from nflscrapR. EPA measure the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position.

No. 1 Dak Prescott pass short right to Jason Witten for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.1                DAL WP Shift: 64% -> 71%

The game started out well for the Cowboys. On their opening possession they drove the ball downfield picking up 62 scrimmage yards and an additional 13 yards on penalties. The drive elapsed nine plays, but the team managed to pick up six first downs. The end result was a touchdown from quarterback Dak Prescott to Jason Witten on a well executed play-action pass.

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The score gave the Cowboys the early lead at 7-0, but it would be the last time they scored while the game remained competitive. Things only got worse from here.

No. 2 Josh Allen pass deep right to Cole Beasley for 29 yards

EPA: 4.2                DAL WP Shift: 81% -> 69%

After a successful special teams play from the Cowboys, the Bills were pinned back in their own territory with abysmal field position. They began the drive at their own 2-yard line. In spite of the circumstances, the Bills made the most of the situation. Their biggest play of the drive came on an improbable pass from Allen to Beasley.

Allen was able to generate one of the biggest plays of the game thanks to some allusive movement in the pocket to avoid DeMarcus Lawrence off the edge. He delivered an accurate pass to Beasley and the play garnered 29 yards in total.

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The Bills were ultimately forced into punting the ball on the drive, but the play was a sign of things to come.

No. 3 Allen pass short right to Beasley for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.9                DAL WP Shift: 60% -> 53%

The Bills found the end zone on their third possession. They orchestrated their biggest drive of the game, gaining 85 yards and five first downs on nine plays. The drive was capped with a 25-yard touchdown from Allen to Beasley. It was a seamless play for the Bills as Beasley found the void in the Cowboys’ soft zone defense with relative ease.

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No. 4 Prescott pass short left intended for Tony Pollard, INTERCEPTED

EPA: -4.9              DAL WP Shift: 55% -> 40%

Beginning their fourth drive of the game, the Cowboys’ WP odds stood at 53%. The game was tied late in the second quarter and both teams managed to avoid some costly mistakes to this point. However, it was the Cowboys that would commit the first turnover of the game. The play was a designed screen pass with Pollard being the intended target.

The pass might have reached Pollard, but Prescott was backpedaling and got hit by linebacker Matt Milano at the time of his release.  Following the interception, the Cowboys’ WP was 40%.

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No. 5 Prescott sacked for a 9-yard loss, FUMBLE

EPA: -5.2              DAL WP Shift: 58% -> 43%

After turning the ball over the Cowboys’ defense was able to absorb the blow. They held the Bills to minus-3 yards on the ensuing drive. The Bills settled for a 50-yard field goal attempt from kicker Steven Hauschka, but it was no good.

The Cowboys could breathe easy knowing their costly turnover didn’t result in any points scored. Unfortunately, the relief was short lived. Their next drive only lasted three plays and ended with a forced fumble from rookie defensive tackle Ed Oliver.

Prescott appeared to be locked in with Michael Gallup running an in breaking route on the right, but the play was slow to develop.

No. 6 John Brown pass deep right to Devin Singletary for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 3.7                DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 26%

The forced turnover from Prescott was the biggest play of the game for the Bills. They were gifted with possession at the Cowboys’ 39-yard line. Later in the drive they flexed their creativity on a play that would give them a 14-7 lead. The Bills reached into their bag of tricks with a double reverse pass play with wide receiver John Brown throwing to a wide open Singletary along the sideline.

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After the score, the Cowboys’ WP dropped to 26%. From this point on, the Cowboys failed to get a hold on the game. The Bills never relented their lead and despite their defense giving up a touchdown late in the game, it was never really a close contest.

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Garrett on analytical decisions: ‘We don’t use those stats within the game’

In an era when teams are using advanced math to help call plays, Jason Garrett shows no interest in overriding his gut in key situations.

The Cowboys’ decision to kick a field goal from the New England 11-yard line with 6:04 left in regulation seemed wrong to an awful lot of fans watching the game. It was only the second time Dallas had been that close to the end zone all day. They were down by seven; punching it in would have given the team the chance to tie with a point-after kick.

They had just tried, with a Dak Prescott pass to tight end Blake Jarwin in the back of the end zone. Prescott seemingly had room to run before firing the ball on that third down; even if he had not scored or picked up the first down, he likely would have, at the very least, lessened the fourth-down distance. Despite needing seven yards to move the chains, it was arguably a go-for-it moment.

Jason Garrett disagreed, math and analytics and the way some successful NFL teams are now employing hard and fast statistics to make real-time game decisions be damned.

The coach explained his thought process to 105.3 The Fan on Monday morning:

“Just over six minutes to go in the ball game. We obviously hadn’t done real well on third downs throughout the game, so 4th-and-7 was going to be a challenging situation, particularly down there where you don’t have as much space. So we just felt like, in that situation, with that much time left in the ball game, just go ahead and make it a 4-point game. Let’s see if we can play defense, give our offense an opportunity to come back and win it. The other factor in a situation like that if they do move the ball and they kick a field goal, and you’ve gone for the touchdown and you haven’t made it, now it’s a 10-point game and a two-score game. So this keeps you in a more manageable situation if they do kick a field goal, it still would only be a 7-point game. Biggest thing you try to do there is make sure you give yourself an opportunity to come back the other way. Just under three minutes to go, three timeouts and a two-minute warning, we felt like that gave us a pretty decent chance coming back to win the ball game.”

In Garrett’s answer, some variation of the word feel shows up a lot. Lots of if. Ambiguous, open-ended phrases like let’s see. His usual emphasis on opportunity.

But there’s a big difference between opportunity and probability. And that’s where hosts Shan and RJ went with their follow-up question:

“Coach, there’s a stat called win probability. Basically, it tells you before each play, your chances of winning the game- whether they increase or decrease- based on the play you’re going to run. Do you have that information available to you during the game based on each play? Like, ‘Hey, if we kick the field goal here, our chance of winning the game goes up or down?'”

Garrett paused for a moment before replying, simply, “Yeah, we don’t use those stats within the game.”

One of the best teams in the league, however, does. As mentioned for the radio audience after Garrett’s phone interview, the Baltimore Ravens are taking some of the guesswork out of their playcalling. Sitting up in the coaching booth during every game, right next to offensive coordinator Greg Roman, is a 25-year-old behavioral economics major from Yale who runs the numbers when there’s a decision to be made on the sideline.

Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic has a fascinating profile on Daniel Stern, whose official title with the team is that of football analyst. Now in his fourth season with the Ravens, Stern assists the coaching staff during the week as they create an overall strategy for each opponent. And on gameday, Stern is on the headset, directly talking coach John Harbaugh through things like whether the math says to go for it or not in a key 4th-down situation.

It’s still ultimately up to Harbaugh and his gut, but the analytics give the coach the most data possible to help make the decision. Perhaps not coincidentally, Baltimore (through Week 11) had converted 10 of 14 fourth-down plays attempted in 2019, tied for most in the league. “And on the 10 drives where they’ve converted,” Kapadia writes, “eight have resulted in touchdowns. They’re averaging 10.5 yards per play on fourth down, which is tops in the NFL.”

The Ravens lead the NFL in 4th-down aggressiveness, with a “go rate” over 60 percent (in situations where the win probability is 1-in-5 or better). The Cowboys are between 20 and 25 percent, ranking among the bottom ten teams leaguewide in the above graph, which charts through Week 11.

Sure, it helps the Ravens that they have a weapon like quarterback Lamar Jackson. That obviously lets them be more aggressive in trying to keep opposing defenses on their heels on a do-or-die fourth down play. But Harbaugh has openly embraced concepts like win probability and expected points added and wants to be fed that information during the game.

“We talk about all the different scenarios, and [Stern] basically gives me a percentage,” Harbaugh is quoted in the Athletic piece. “So what’s the added win percentage of going for it? He’ll give it to me like one, two, three, four, five, six, up to whatever. Then you just decide if you want to do it. It’s not strictly based [on the numbers]. I listen to it. If he starts telling me 3 and 4 percent, I get really interested. If it’s 1 or 2 percent, I’m still interested — especially if it’s short, if I think we can get it.”

According to ESPN Stats & Info via Todd Archer, the win probability of the Cowboys going for it on that fourth down with 6:04 to play eleven yards from the goal line? 18.8 percent. “By kicking the field goal,” Archer notes, “the win probability fell to 16.7 percent.”

All of Garrett’s rhetoric about how it felt like cutting the lead kept things more manageable? How the field goal gave the offense a “pretty decent chance” to come back and score again? That decision actually decreased the team’s chances of sneaking a win out of Gillette Stadium. The numbers say so.

Garrett’s dismissal on The Fan?

“Yeah, we don’t use those stats within the game.”

Harbaugh says, “We’re chasing everything that’s gonna give us an edge.”

That sort of philosophy sounds like it would be a breath of fresh air to Cowboys fans, many of whom have tired of Garrett’s old-school insistence on doing things the way he’s always done them just because that’s the way it’s always been done. The 53-year-old Princeton grad may have a lot of football knowledge, but adding a little bit of math to the curriculum sure feels like it might present quite an opportunity.

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Swing State: 3 plays epitomized Cowboys rough loss to Patriots

Analyzing the 3 biggest plays in the Cowboys’ 13-9 defeat to the Patriots using EPA and Win Probability metrics from nflscrapR.

It was yet another close defeat for the Dallas Cowboys, losing 13-9 to the New England Patriots on Sunday. The Cowboys are now 0-4 in games decided by four or fewer points in 2019. The difference between winning and losing came down to a few plays deciding the final outcome, the case in most close contests. The Cowboys needed to play their best brand of football in all three facets against the vaunted Patriots, and they fell short of the mark.

Here are the biggest plays of the game as measured by Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) with data from nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position.

No. 1 Chris Jones punt is blocked by Matthew Slater

EPA: -2.8. DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 37%

Neither team was able to gain much of an advantage through the first quarter. It was at the end of the Cowboys’ third drive when momentum would shift to the Patriots.

New England’s special teams unit proved to play a big part in the game and it started with All-Pro special teamer Matthew Slater. The blocked punt gave the Patriots perfect starting field position at the Cowboys’ 12-yard line.

The short drive was completed with a 10-yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady to rookie wide receiver N’Keal Harry to take an early 7-0 lead.

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No. 2 Dak Prescott pass short right intended for Amari Cooper INTERCEPTED

EPA: -4.6. DAL WP Shift: 26% -> 18%

It was still early in the game but after a touchdown by the Patriots the Cowboys might have felt pressed to score some points of their own. On this play Cooper ran a simple crossing route, but Stephon Gilmore is one of the best man-cover corners in the NFL.

It showed on this play as he basically ran Cooper’s route for him. Gilmore’s interception gifted the Patriots’ offense with ideal field position on their second consecutive drive.

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In spite of the turnover the Cowboys’ defense managed to hold the Patriots’ offense to a field goal try. After a successful kick the score was 10-0 early in the second quarter in favor of the Patriots. Miraculously, the Cowboys were very much in the game, but the early deficit was self-inflicted.

No. 3 Prescott pass deep left to Randall Cobb for 47 yards

EPA: 4.2. DAL WP Shift: 20% -> 36%

The Cowboys’ offenses has featured one of the most explosive passing attacks in the league. Cooper has been the team’s biggest contributing factor to this, but against Gilmore, his role was neutralized. It meant the team’s other receivers needed to have a big game in order for their offense to function as intended.

Those plays were few and far between.

The Cowboys’ biggest gain came on a 47-yard play from Prescott to Cobb in the fourth quarter. Cobb gained 42 yards after the catch but he would lose the ball on the play. He was able to recover the ball for some additional yardage, so altogether the play netted 59 yards.

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This was quite the swing for the Cowboys, but they would settle for a field goal on the drive. A successful attempt brought the score to 13-9; unfortunately for them it would become the final score of the game.

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Highlights, player tracking of Cowboys biggest Week 11 plays

Dissecting the biggest plays in the Dallas Cowboys’ 35-27 victory against the Detroit Lions using EPA and Win Probability metrics.

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys picked up a much needed victory as they beat the Detroit Lions 35-27 in a close game. The Cowboys dominated on the offensive side of the ball while their defense continued to struggle, this time against a Lions team led by backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. The team’s defense has been a let down despite some stellar play from the defensive line. That being the case, the burden is on Dak Prescott to lead the offense in high scoring games, and on Sunday he once again proved more than capable.

It was an explosive game for both passing offenses as each team’s pass defense was lackluster.

Here are the biggest plays of the game in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) with data via nflscrapR. EPA measure the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.

Make sure to check out the multiple views of the player tracking data for unique insight into how the plays unfolded.

The Plays

No. 1: Ezekiel Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, FUMBLE

EPA: -4.2. DAL WP Shift: 48% -> 39%

Another game, another turnover on the Cowboys’ opening drive. The team has been known for their slow starts in 2019 and turnovers have been one of the biggest culprits. On the first rush of the game Elliott fumbled after being gang tackled by a pair of Lions. It was edge rusher Trey Flowers that forced the ball out with a recovery from linebacker Jarrad Davis.

The turnover proved to be a costly one as the Lions were able to turn it into their first score of the game. It was a seamless opening drive for the Lions who would start at their opponents’ 28-yard line. After a short drive, running back Bo Scarbrough scored on a 5-yard rush up the middle.

No. 2: Dak Prescott sacked by Devon Kennard for a loss of 10 yards

EPA: -2.4. DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 34%

The Cowboys’ third drive of the game looked to be a promising one. Beginning at their own 14-yard line, they would slowly inch their way into a scoring opportunity. The drive spanned 14 plays, 79 yards gained and five first downs. Eventually the Cowboys found themselves at the Lions’ 2-yard line on a goal-to-go situation. On third down it was Lions edge rusher Devon Kennard that would generate the sack on a well-timed blitz call for a loss of 10 yards.

After the sack the Cowboys would have to settle for a 30-yard field goal try from Brett Maher putting the score at 7-3 late in the first quarter.

No. 3: Prescott pass short middle to Tony Pollard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 3.5. DAL WP Shift: 44% -> 55%

Trailing by four points to start the second quarter the Cowboys would get their first touchdown of the game in style. Much like in their previous possession, their fourth drive would also be a long one. This drive covered 7 plays, 70 yards gained and three first downs. Their success was rewarded when Prescott connected with Pollard on a 21-yard reception for the score. Pollard flashed his explosive potential by forcing a missed tackle in route to his first career receiving touchdown.

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Cowboys’ 7 plays that changed the game in 28-24 loss to Vikings

A look back at the 7 biggest plays from the Cowboys’ 28-24 loss to the Vikings using EPA and WP metrics from nflscrapR.

The Dallas Cowboys might have suffered their worst loss of the season against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. The final score was 28-24, but the biggest takeaway from the game was the plethora of questionable play-calls and mismanaged opportunities. The Cowboys were clearly the better offensive team from a passing standpoint. However, the rushing attack they heavily relied on in the past was a non-factor against the Vikings, and ultimately, it might have been the driving force behind the daunting loss.

It was a game that featured plenty of explosive plays from both offenses. Here are the biggest plays that stood out in the game as measured by Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability with data via nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a given play based on down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.

The Plays

No. 1: Kirk Cousins pass short right to Dalvin Cook for 27 yards

EPA: 2.1. DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 35%

The Vikings’ first big play of the game came on simple screen pass to Cook. He managed to turn the short pass into an explosive 27 yard catch and run. Cousins was not asked to throw deep against the Cowboys, his average pass on Sunday traveled seven yards through the air. Instead he relied on Cook to generate yards after the catch. Cook totaled 109 yards after the catch and his ability to break tackles and create extra yardage was crucial for the Vikings.

This play would end with a facemask penalty from cornerback Chidobe Awuzie. The resulting catch and 15-yard penalty gave the Vikings field position at the Cowboys’ 10-yard line. They would eventually end the drive with a score, putting them up 7-0 early.

No. 2: Cousins pass short left to Cook for 30 yards

EPA: 2.1. DAL WP Shift: 21% -> 16%

Once again Cook showed why he is one of the best running backs in the NFL. He turned another short screen pass into a huge gain, this time for 30 yards. And much like his first big play this one also ended with a penalty for the Cowboys. A 14-yard roughing the passer call on DeMarcus Lawrence would result in a 44-yard gain for the Vikings.

The Vikings would end the drive with another touchdown. It was tight end Kyle Rudolph that would pick up his second score of the game with linebacker Sean Lee in coverage. The score was now 14-0, but the Cowboys have developed a reputation this season as a team that rallies later in games. This game was no different.

No. 3: Cousins sacked for a loss of 9 yards by Robert Quinn

EPA: -2.3. DAL WP Shift: 13% ->17%

To start the second quarter the Cowboys found themselves in a dire situation. The defense had struggled to contain Cook throughout the first quarter and they desperately needed a stop on third down. So it is no surprise that Quinn came up big for his team when it mattered most. The team needed momentum and Quinn was able to give it to them following this sack.

No. 4: Prescott pass deep right to Amari Cooper for 20 yards

EPA: 2.5. DAL WP Shift: 14% -> 19%

Due to some questionable play-calling on early downs the Cowboys faced plenty of third-and-long situations. Luckily for the Cowboys the combination of Prescott and Cooper has turned into on of the most dependable QB-WR tandems in the NFL. The duo consistently lifted the team in these tight situations, and on this play Cooper displayed his elite awareness skills with a toe drag catch.

No. 5: Prescott pass short left to Michael Gallup for 23 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.9. DAL WP Shift: 19% -> 27%

The Cowboys’ offense finally got back on track in the second quarter. After an impressive 20-yard catch from Cooper, it was Gallup that would give the Cowboys their first score of the game. The Vikings were in zone coverage here, but it was a well designed offensive play that had linebacker Eric Kendricks covering Gallup down the middle of the field for the easy score.

No. 6: Prescott pass deep right to Randall Cobb for 22 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 4.4. DAL WP Shift: 36% -> 49%

Late in the first half the Cowboy were presented with a scoring opportunity. From the 22-yard line the expected points from this part of the field was 2.6. Even so, the Cowboys were not looking to enter half-time with a field goal. The team would even the score at 14-14 on a free play as the defense was called for an offside penalty.

Prescott’s improvisation skills came in handy on the explosive pass play and Cobb showed great focus in making the catch. Cobb had his best game as a Cowboy as he accounted for 106 yards, six receptions and a touchdown.

No. 7: Prescott pass deep right to Cooper for 12 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.4. DAL WP Shift: 44% -> 51%

The duo of Prescott and Cooper connected on plenty of immaculate catches on the night, but this one by far was the most impressive. This play was a pass with some jet-action from RB Tony Pollard. Prescott rolled out to his right as Cooper ran a comeback route. The ball placement essentially left Cooper in a spot that was impossible to defend. But the accuracy from Prescott was also uncanny.

Where do Cowboys go from here?

It was a tough loss for the Cowboys as Prescott put on another MVP-caliber performance. They lost to a good team, but it did not have to be that way. There were plenty of opportunities to seize the game, but it was the coaching staff that came up short with a game plan that featured plenty of runs on first-and-10. All night the Cowboys had struggled to establish the run. Passing on the other hand was a completely different story. Much like they have all season, the Cowboys have possessed on of the best passing offenses in the league through 10 weeks of football.

Right now the biggest question marks come from the Cowboys’ defensive side of the ball. What has been concerning is the team’s never ending battle  against the run despite being at full strength on the defensive front. Even the pass defense has suffered as of late, as Awuzie has failed to take a major leap in his game now in his third year in the league. Overall, the Cowboys do have the talent and the right personnel to compete for a Super Bowl, but reality has not lined up with the expectations for the 2019 season.

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