Tag: Player Props

NFL Week 10 best bets: One wager to make for every team

We’ve got one bet to make on NFL every team in Week 10, from player props to picks against the spread.

The second half of the 2023 season officially begins this week with 14 games from Thursday to Monday night. It’s another week of what should be relatively close games, with only two contests featuring spreads larger than 6.5 points.

Things begin on Thursday night with the Panthers-Bears matchup and conclude on Monday night when the Broncos visit the Bills in an AFC showdown in Buffalo.

The NFL Wire editors have picked one bet to make on each team in the league this week. It’s a collection of player props, picks against the spread and more, giving bettors a nice variety of options in Week 10.

Note: The Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins and Eagles are on a bye this week.

All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.

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5 player prop bet picks for Cowboys vs. Jaguars

Do you think Travis Etienne Jr. scores a touchdown today against the Cowboys?

The Dallas Cowboys are set to play in Jacksonville, Fla. for the first time in 16 years and they come with a 10-3 record and no shortage of impressive statistics.

Dallas has scored the third most points in the NFL this season and it has allowed the second fewest. On paper, that means the Cowboys should run through the 5-8 Jacksonville Jaguars with ease.

But oddsmakers have set the Jaguars as just a four-point underdog in Week 15, due mostly to the excellent play of Trevor Lawrence as of late. The No. 1 pick of the 2021 NFL Draft has thrown 10 touchdowns with no interceptions in his last five games and the Jaguars somehow find themselves in the postseason hunt with four weeks left in the regular season.

Two teams are playing with a whole lot at stake and the oddsmakers at BetMGM have offered plenty of player prop bets Sunday. Here are five that look like winners for the meeting of the Cowboys and Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field:

Prince’s NFL Player Props: Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence and more Week 15 picks

The best NFL Week 15 player prop bets.

The trick in picking player props, aside from just recognizing trends, is being able to predict game script.

For instance, last week I picked Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards over because I thought Dallas would get up big on Houston and Elliott would get a ton of carries to milk the clock. I also picked Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards under for the same reason — KC wasn’t supposed to be in a shootout with Denver.

Unfortunately, both games ended up being close. So, Elliott fell eight yards short of the over. And Mahomes ended up nowhere near the under because he had to work his magic to make sure the Chiefs won.

Let’s hope for better luck this week.

Week 14: 3-3

2022 record: 35-42

Prince’s NFL Player Props: Miles Sanders, Matt Ryan and more Week 13 picks

The best NFL Week 13 player prop bets.

OK, so I’m batting .500 over the last couple of weeks. Not terrible, but definitely not something I’m prepared to settle for either.

My record won’t even out until I start stringing together some winning weeks, so that’s what we’re aiming for here.

The problem in Week 12 is that I bet against Jalen Hurts again, and that hasn’t worked out for me all year. So this week we’re going with the bold strategy of betting against…Miles Sanders, his teammate coming off a season-high of rushing yards.

What can I say. I’m a glutton for punishment. Let’s get into Week 13.

Week 12: 3-3

2022 record: 27-38

Prince’s NFL Player Props: Josh Allen, Justin Fields and more Week 9 picks

The best NFL Week 9 player prop bets.

I feel like a round of applause is in order, because finally, FINALLY, I put together a winning week.

You knew the vibes were trending in a positive direction when we went .500 in Week 7, and sure enough the trend continued with a 4-2 record last week. Now we turn to Week 9, hoping the momentum continues.

The theme this week is QB unders. I have three of them from my pick-six, and oddly enough, Justin Fields, who is a part of my six and averages the NFL’s fewest passing yards per game among starters, isn’t one of them. Let’s get into it.

Week 8: 4-2

2022 record: 17-30

A last-minute hedge saved a bettor after the final leg of their $124K parlay failed

>>> losing on the last of 17 legs.

Sometimes hedging a bet is your only option. Because if turning $7 into $124,000 on a 17-leg parlay seems to good to be true, it probably is.

That was the case for one NFL bettor who decided he wasn’t leaving his earnings up to fate.

Ahead of Week 8 action, the bettor placed a bet for $7.77 on a 17-leg parlay with +1600073 odds. It would have paid out more than $124,000. Incredibly, the first 16 legs hit Sunday, leaving Joe Mixon’s rushing yards over on Monday night as the only leg left.

At that point, the bettor had two options. Let it ride and risk coming away with nothing. Or sprinkle something on Mixon’s under to create a win-win scenario.

Wisely, they did the latter. Mixon was held to just 27 yards in a rough game for the Bengals.

It helps to have $34K sitting around that you can use on a hedge. But with that money at their disposal, the bettor netted $29,000.

It’s not the $124K they would’ve won if the final leg of the parlay had hit (or $90K with the hedge subtracted). But for a bet that started with just $7, it’s most definitely a big win.

And it should lead to a pretty good honeymoon. The bettor got married Sunday.

The lesson here is always hedge if you can.

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Derrick Henry helped a $1 bet cash for $20K amid a season-worst week for sportsbooks

A man of the people.

Derrick Henry ran all over the Houston Texans on Sunday.

That’s really not a surprise given his history against them. Before Sunday’s game, Henry had rushed for more than 200 yards with at least two touchdowns in three straight games against Houston dating back to 2019.

So, naturally, bettors expected more of the same.

He delivered, running for 219 yards and two touchdowns, making history in the process by tying the NFL record for most career 200-yard games with six.

Bettors who played his rushing yards and touchdown props played a role in what BetMGM called its worst week of the season, according to ESPN’s David Purdham.

Also reporting a losing day was Caesars, where 98.9% of bets on Henry’s rushing yards prop were on the over — even as it opened at 96.5 yards and grew to 104.5.

FanDuel paid out some big bets too. One bettor at FanDuel took Henry’s alternate rushing yards prop at 150 yards along with his odds to score two touchdowns as part of a 10-leg parlay for $1. It cashed for more than $20,000!

Another bettor at FanDuel had Henry’s 2+ TD prop as the final leg in a bet to turn $10 into more than $25,000. And they smartly let it ride.

Obviously, a lot of other things had to go right for these bettors to hit these wild parlays — and for sportsbooks to have a season-worst week.

But it’s no doubt Henry was one of those factors.

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World Series 2022: Game 1 odds, predictions and prop pick for Phillies vs. Astros

Predictions for Game 1 of the World Series.

Picking a winner in the first game of the World Series is a bit tricky when the teams at hand haven’t seen much of the pitchers they’re about to face, which is the case when it comes to the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies.

Very few Phillies have had more than a couple at-bats in their careers against Astros ace Justin Verlander. The ones who have, had very marginal success. As a team, Philadelphia’s hitters are a career .184 against the likely AL Cy Young winner.

Likewise, there isn’t a single Astros player with more than eight at-bats against Phillies starter Aaron Nola. They’ve hit just .130 against in him in their careers.

Batters will get very familiar with these two over the course of the series and maybe even get a read on their stuff. But in Game 1, after a five-day layoff since the end of the league championship series, I give the advantage to the pitchers and expect more of the same.

When these teams met in the final series of the regular season, Nola pitched a shutout through 6 2/3 innings of the first game with nine strikeouts and just two hits allowed. Verlander pitched a hitless five innings with 10 strikeouts in the second game. Each bullpen completed the shutouts.

If these staffs bring that type of stuff into Game 1, a winner might not be decided until the final innings. And though Nola — a full decade younger than Verlander — could potentially take his start deeper into the game, I expect Philadelphia’s bullpen to crack before Houston’s.

If the game is decided by the starters, I still expect it to be Houston’s lineup to come through first. Though Nola was terrific through his first two starts of the postseason, he allowed six runs and two homers through 4 2/3 innings of his last start in Game 2 of their series against the Padres. Verlander, on the other hand, allowed just one run and three hits in six innings against the Yankees in his last start.

Both offenses pack plenty of power, so all of this could very easily and quickly go out of the window once the game starts. And not since 2017 has Game 1 of the World Series seen fewer than eight runs scored, but I’ll lean on the recent trends and plus money for my favorite pick in this one, which is under 6.5 runs at +100 odds.

Prince’s Pick: Astros win 4-2

Prince’s Prop: Justin Verlander over 5.5 strikeouts (-160)

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Prince’s NFL Player Props: Leonard Fournette, Breece Hall and more Week 7 prop picks

NFL Week 7 player prop bets.

Welcome back to Prince’s Props, and this week is apparently the receiving edition because five of my six prop picks are on receiving yardage overs or unders.

While this hyper-focus on Week 7 receiving wasn’t intentional, it’s hopefully a welcomed change, because Week 6 was another rough week of picks in a season full of them.

I went 2-4 once again, an improvement over the “down” previous week but mostly just status quo for 2022. However, I did go 1-for-1 on receiving yards props — Gabe Davis had over 57.5 yards against the Chiefs — so maybe that’s a sign of good things to come?

Week 6: 2-4

2022 record: 10-25

Prince’s NFL Player Props: Aaron Rodgers, Gabe Davis and more Week 6 prop picks

NFL Week 6 player prop bets.

Laugh at my pain.

That was the title of Kevin Hart’s third comedy stand-up special, and it’s beginning to feel like my life when it comes to picking player props.

These picks are going to be the end of me. And to make the joke worse, I do well on the picks I don’t include in this weekly post – like this one from the Thursday night game.

Either way, we’re back after a season-worst 1-5 last week. I would say it can’t get any worse, but now that would be a lie. Just take the opposite of my picks, and you might come up.

Week 5: 1-5

2022 record: 8-21