The trick in picking player props, aside from just recognizing trends, is being able to predict game script.
For instance, last week I picked Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards over because I thought Dallas would get up big on Houston and Elliott would get a ton of carries to milk the clock. I also picked Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards under for the same reason — KC wasn’t supposed to be in a shootout with Denver.
Unfortunately, both games ended up being close. So, Elliott fell eight yards short of the over. And Mahomes ended up nowhere near the under because he had to work his magic to make sure the Chiefs won.
Let’s hope for better luck this week.
Week 14: 3-3
2022 record: 35-42