Tag: Padres Mets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The San Diego Padres (7-5) and New York Mets (6-6) wrap up a 3-game set Wednesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

The Padres won 4-2 as +124 underdogs Tuesday. SS Xander Bogaerts hit a 2-run HR in the top of the 9th inning for the Padres, who have won 4 of their last 5 games.

The Mets closed as -134 favorites in Tuesday’s loss. New York has lost 2 of its last 3 games after back-to-back wins vs. the Miami Marlins Friday and Saturday.

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Padres at Mets projected starters

LHP Blake Snell vs. RHP Tylor Megill

Snell (0-1, 7.88 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 2.13 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 12.4 K/9 through 8 IP.

  • Posted an 8-10 record with a 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 in 128 IP across 24 starts in 2022
  • 6 career starts vs. New York: 3-3 with a 2.73 ERA (33 IP, 10 ER)

Megill (2-0, 1.64 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 11 IP.

  • Was 4-2 in 9 starts and 6 relief appearances last year with a 5.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 47 1/3 IP
  • Has never faced the Padres in his career

Padres at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Mets -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+150) | Mets +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Padres at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Padres 4

Moneyline

BET METS (-110).

New York should bounce back after blowing a 2-1 lead in the 9th inning last time out. The Mets are 47-19 in their last 66 games after a loss and 13-6 in their last 19 at home vs. teams with a winning record.

The Padres should let down after their late comeback win and struggle to beat the Mets at Citi Field in back-to-back games.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

New York +1.5 (-185) should hit, but there is no need to pay the higher price on the run line when the Mets should win straight up. Bet the moneyline and/or the total instead.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-110).

The Over is 8-1-1 in San Diego’s last 10 games after allowing 2 or fewer runs in its previous contest and 7-2 in its last 9 vs. right-handed starters. The Mets should bounce back offensively Wednesday since the Over has gone 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring 2 or fewer runs.

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San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The San Diego Padres (6-5) and New York Mets (6-5) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set Tuesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 1-0.

The Padres had a 3-game win snapped with a 5-0 loss as +117 underdogs in the series opener Monday. San Diego was coming off a 3-1 series win at the Atlanta Braves.

The Mets closed as -127 home favorites in Monday’s win. SS Francisco Lindor and OF Jeff McNeil drove in 2 runs each for the Mets, who have won 3 of their last 4 games.

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Padres at Mets projected starters

LHP Ryan Weathers vs. LHP David Peterson

Weathers (0-0, 3.60 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 2 K across 5 IP in his debut vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 3.

  • Started just 1 game in 2022.
  • Posted a 4-7 record with a 5.32 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 94 2/3 IP across 18 starts and 12 relief appearances in 2021.
  • Has never faced the Mets in his career.

Peterson (0-1, 6.00 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 2.11 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 9 IP.

  • Last start: allowed 5 ER on 5 H and 5 BB with 5 K in 4 IP in a no-decision at the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday.
  • Went 7-5 with a 3.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 105 2/3 IP across 19 starts and 9 relief appearances in 2022.
  • Allowed 1 ER on 2 H and 0 BB with 2 K through 2 IP in 2 relief appearances vs. the Padres in the 2022 postseason.

Padres at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Mets -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-175) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Padres at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Mets 5

Moneyline

BET PADRES (+115).

San Diego plays up to the level of its competition and is 5-1 in its last 6 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Mets are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. winning teams and Peterson wasn’t great against San Diego last year.

The Padres are 6-2 in their last 8 games after scoring 2 or fewer runs in their previous contest and should be able to bounce back Tuesday after getting shut out in the series opener.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

San Diego +1.5 (-175) should hit, but there is no need to pay the higher price on the run line when the Padres should win straight up. Bet the moneyline and/or total instead.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 9 (-105).

San Diego has been bouncing back offensively after poor performances and the Over is 6-1-1 in its last 8 games after scoring 2 or fewer runs in its previous contest. The Over is 6-1 in New York’s last 7 home games vs. left-handed starters and should cash again Tuesday since both pitchers are capable of giving up a lot of runs early.

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San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The San Diego Padres (6-4) are set to begin a 3-game series against the New York Mets (5-5) Monday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of the 2023 season. The Padres had a 6-3 record against the Mets in 2022.

The Padres cruised to a 10-2 victory over the Atlanta Braves Sunday. San Diego has tallied 3 straight wins and outscored Atlanta 25-14 in its 4-game series.

On Sunday, the Mets lost 7-2 to the Miami Marlins with RHP Carlos Carrasco giving up 6 ER in 4 2/3 IP for his 2nd loss of the season. New York still beat Miami 2-1 in the 3-game series despite Sunday’s forgettable performance.

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Padres at Mets projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Darvish (0-0, 1.80 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 7.2 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 through 5 IP.

  • Issued 4 BB while striking out only 3 batters in his season debut against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Apr. 4.
  • Has a 5-0 record with a 2.56 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 in 8 career starts against the Mets.

Scherzer (1-1, 6.35 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 11 1/3 IP.

  • Has given up 3-plus ER in each game and 4 total HRs in his first 2 starts of the season.
  • Has also failed to record more than 6 K’s in a start this season (had 6 K’s or more in 18 of his 23 starts in 2022).

Padres at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Mets -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-175) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Padres at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Padres 4

Moneyline

Even though Scherzer has struggled to begin the season, I’ll side with the METS (-145) at home. Darvish has also looked out of sorts to begin the season despite his 1.80 ERA in his 1st start.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

With both teams having veteran pitchers that are getting adjusted to the new season, I believe this game remains close. The Mets will inch out a close one at home, but the Padres have a lineup that’s capable of keeping this contest within 2 runs.

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Over/Under

There is value in taking OVER 7.5 (+100) as neither Darvish nor Scherzer have looked like aces thus far. Both teams are a combined 12-7-1 to the Over this season.

On top of that, the Padres and the Mets have each had 7 games this season where 8-plus total runs were scored.

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NL Wild Card Series Game 1: San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at New York Mets Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres and New York Mets play Game 1 of an NL Wild Card Series Friday at Citi Field. First pitch is slated for 8:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Padres won 4-2

The Padres went 6-7 over the last couple of weeks of the season but held on to the 2nd NL Wild Card spot. They’re expected to be rolled over in this series against by a dominant Mets pitching staff, but the Friars could be a dangerous team. One reason: OF Juan Soto. He has a 1.001 OPS, .303 batting average, 16 home runs and 42 RBI in 68 games in his career against the Mets.

The Mets come into this one with a chip on their shoulder. They led the NL East for most of the season, but the Atlanta Braves swept them to take the crown in the final week. They actually played pretty well down the stretch, going 12-6 over their final 18 games. One question that will need to be answered is: How will RBI-champ 1B Pete Alonso fare in his first postseason action?

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Padres at Mets projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA) posted a 0.95 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 194 2/3 IP across 30 regular-season starts.

  • 2 starts vs. Mets in 2022: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 9.6 K/9
  • Postseason career: 2-5, 5.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9 over 7 starts

Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA) notched a 0.91 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 145 1/3 IP and 23 starts.

  • 1 start vs. Padres in 2022: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
  • Postseason career: 7-6, 3.22 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, 11.2 K/9 over 128 2/3 IP across 21 starts and 5 relief appearances

Padres at Mets odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Mets -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Padres at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Padres 2

Moneyline

I like the Mets to ride Scherzer to victory here. I have concerns about their bats and middle relief, though. If San Diego is able to get Scherzer’s pitch count up to get him out within 18 outs, they could steal this one.

But, the Mets are at home with a foul taste in their mouths, and they have a proven stud on the mound. Darvish has had serious questions in his postseason past.

Take the METS (-155).

Run line/Against the spread

As mentioned, the Mets went 12-6 over the last 18, and 10 of those victories were by 2 runs or more. The Padres’ hitters are a little green when it comes to playoffs outside of Soto. That could be the edge the Mets need.

LEAN METS -1.5 (+145) for a decent return.

Over/Under

It’s a 63-degree night with a brisk 10-mph gust coming in from left-center field. The Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in New York. This is a small number with a lot of unknown variables at play.

I’ll LEAN UNDER 6.5 (-125) for a HALF-UNIT.

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San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (32-24) and the San Diego Padres (37-29) wrap up their three-game set in Citi Field Sunday at 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego has lost the first two games of this series, four straight, and six out of their last seven. New York has now won three in a row and five of their last six games.

Season series: Mets lead 4-2.

RHP Chris Paddack is on the rubber for the Padres. Paddack is 2-5 with a 4.27 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 across 11 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-2, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 6 K last Sunday vs. the Mets.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster: 50 at-bats with a .260/.315/.400 slash line, 15/3 K/BB, 2 HR and 4 RBIs.

LHP Joey Lucchesi makes his seventh start (with three bullpen outings) for the Mets. Lucchesi is 1-4 with a 5.79 ERA (28 IP, 18 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 2-0, with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 3 K at the Padres June 4.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster: 27 at-bats with a .222/.250/.481 slash line, 5/1 K/BB, 2 HR and 2 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Padres at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:53 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+125) | Mets +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Mets 6, Padres 4

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the METS (+110) for a tiny wager because New York’s lineup has been far more productive recently and the Mets have an edge in relief pitching.

New York’s lineup has the fourth-highest WAR, wRC+, and wOBA over the last two weeks while San Diego’s bats are last in all three categories.

Also, the Padres’ lineup is struggling vs. left-handed pitching this season as they rank in the bottom-5 of the MLB in OPS and wOBA while ranking sixth-worst in wRC+.

Furthermore, the Mets relievers are first in WAR and in the top-3 of xFIP and SIERA this year.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the METS +0.5 (-125) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because they’ll fare better this week vs. Paddack than last week since he predominantly only throws a fastball or change up. The previous experience against Paddack will pay dividends for New York’s lineup.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS because San Diego’s bullpen is almost as good as New York’s and both starters kept the damage minimal when they faced Sunday’s opponent earlier this season.

However, something tells me these lineups could tee off on the starters this time around since both are “back of the rotation” guys.

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San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (31-24) host the San Diego Padres (37-28) for the second game of their three-game series at Citi Field Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York won the first game of the series 3-2 behind another gem from 2020 NL Cy Young finalist Jacob deGrom who pitched 6 scoreless innings, allowing just 1 hit and striking out 10 batters with 0 walks.

Season series: Mets lead 3-2

RHP Joe Musgrove is the projected starter for the Padres. Musgrove is 4-5 with a 2.33 ERA (65 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 0.84 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 over 11 starts and 1 bullpen appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-0, in 5 IP with 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 10 K vs. the Mets last Saturday.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster: 75 at-bats with a .280/.316/.560 slash line, 21/2 K/BB, 5 HR and 8 RBIs.

RHP Marcus Stroman makes his 13th start for the Mets. Stroman is 5-4 with a 2.41 ERA (71 IP, 19 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 6-2, in 6 2/3 IP with 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 7 K Sunday at the Padres.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster: 90 at-bats with a .222/.290/.333 slash line, 22/8 K/BB, 2 HR and 8 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Padres at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:28 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Mets 4, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

BET the METS (+110) for 1 unit because they are awesome at Citi Field (16-5 home record) and have a fantastic 24-15 record against righty starters.

Also, going from deGrom to Stroman the next day is a difficult adjustment for a lineup to make, especially a lineup as inconsistent as San Diego’s this season.

For instance, deGrom’s fastball hits 100-plus mph on the gun regularly whereas Stroman has a deeper pitch arsenal, utilizing more offspeed pitches and his fastball velocity is in the lower 90s.

Furthermore, New York’s lineup is starting to get healthier and produce. Over the past two weeks, the Mets hitters have the second-highest WAR, wRC+, and wOBA in the majors.

On the other side, the Padres have the second-lowest WAR and wOBA over the last 14 days with the third-fewest wRC+.

Lastly, Musgrove has lost all three starts vs. the Mets in his career with a 6.11 ERA in four appearances, and his numbers this season against losing teams are deGromian but vs. winning teams they’re mediocre.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mets -1.5 (+225) alternate run line because of the fat payout, but I’ll stay away since the Padres are 10-9 on the run line as a road favorite this season.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7 (-105) as both starters are “top of the rotation” guys who could be making the National League All-Star team if they keep up their current form.

Moreover, neither lineup has produced at its potential this season and both bullpens are in the top-10 units of SIERA, xFIP and WAR.

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San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (37-27) and New York Mets (30-24) open a three-game weekend set Friday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Blake Snell is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 2-2 with a 4.83 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 13.3 K/9, and 5.3 BB/9 in 54 IP over 12 starts.

Snell has held current New York bats to a .644 OPS. His last time out on June 4 against these same Mets, he posted his best start of the 2021 season logging 7 IP of scoreless ball, giving up just 1 H while recording 10 K and 1 BB.

RHP Jacob deGrom is the projected starter for the Mets. He is 5-2 with a 0.62 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 14.4 K/9, and 1.2 BB/9 in 58 IP over 9 starts.

DeGrom tossed seven scoreless frames in his last start at San Diego Saturday. His low ERA on the season comes courtesy of not allowing a run in five of his nine outings.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Padres at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:41 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Mets -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-165) | Mets -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 5.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Mets 4, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

Snell has struggled over recent road starts. A hot-hitting Mets club (5.3 runs per game, .842 OPS since May 25) getting a second look at the Padre lefty and backed by deGrom is the play here. BACK NEW YORK (-165).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

While the Snell-fade angle is a decent one, there is enough realistic possibility for a low-scoring pitcher’s duel. So, PASS on edging the Mets to a run-line play unless the tag becomes more attractive.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Padres bullpen also gets some fade shade here. The Friars’ offense swings the other way: San Diego has been hampered by low BABIP figures when leading off innings, batting with runners in scoring position, and in high-leverage situations.

BACK THE OVER 5.5 (-110).

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