The San Diego Padres and New York Mets play Game 1 of an NL Wild Card Series Friday at Citi Field. First pitch is slated for 8:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Padres won 4-2
The Padres went 6-7 over the last couple of weeks of the season but held on to the 2nd NL Wild Card spot. They’re expected to be rolled over in this series against by a dominant Mets pitching staff, but the Friars could be a dangerous team. One reason: OF Juan Soto. He has a 1.001 OPS, .303 batting average, 16 home runs and 42 RBI in 68 games in his career against the Mets.
The Mets come into this one with a chip on their shoulder. They led the NL East for most of the season, but the Atlanta Braves swept them to take the crown in the final week. They actually played pretty well down the stretch, going 12-6 over their final 18 games. One question that will need to be answered is: How will RBI-champ 1B Pete Alonso fare in his first postseason action?
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Padres at Mets projected starters
RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Max Scherzer
Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA) posted a 0.95 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 194 2/3 IP across 30 regular-season starts.
- 2 starts vs. Mets in 2022: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 9.6 K/9
- Postseason career: 2-5, 5.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9 over 7 starts
Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA) notched a 0.91 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 145 1/3 IP and 23 starts.
- 1 start vs. Padres in 2022: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
- Postseason career: 7-6, 3.22 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, 11.2 K/9 over 128 2/3 IP across 21 starts and 5 relief appearances
Padres at Mets odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Mets -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Padres at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Padres 2
Moneyline
I like the Mets to ride Scherzer to victory here. I have concerns about their bats and middle relief, though. If San Diego is able to get Scherzer’s pitch count up to get him out within 18 outs, they could steal this one.
But, the Mets are at home with a foul taste in their mouths, and they have a proven stud on the mound. Darvish has had serious questions in his postseason past.
Take the METS (-155).
Run line/Against the spread
As mentioned, the Mets went 12-6 over the last 18, and 10 of those victories were by 2 runs or more. The Padres’ hitters are a little green when it comes to playoffs outside of Soto. That could be the edge the Mets need.
LEAN METS -1.5 (+145) for a decent return.
Over/Under
It’s a 63-degree night with a brisk 10-mph gust coming in from left-center field. The Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in New York. This is a small number with a lot of unknown variables at play.
I’ll LEAN UNDER 6.5 (-125) for a HALF-UNIT.
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