The San Diego Padres (37-27) and New York Mets (30-24) open a three-game weekend set Friday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Blake Snell is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 2-2 with a 4.83 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 13.3 K/9, and 5.3 BB/9 in 54 IP over 12 starts.
Snell has held current New York bats to a .644 OPS. His last time out on June 4 against these same Mets, he posted his best start of the 2021 season logging 7 IP of scoreless ball, giving up just 1 H while recording 10 K and 1 BB.
RHP Jacob deGrom is the projected starter for the Mets. He is 5-2 with a 0.62 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 14.4 K/9, and 1.2 BB/9 in 58 IP over 9 starts.
DeGrom tossed seven scoreless frames in his last start at San Diego Saturday. His low ERA on the season comes courtesy of not allowing a run in five of his nine outings.
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Padres at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:41 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Mets -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-165) | Mets -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 5.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Mets 4, Padres 3
Money line (ML)
Snell has struggled over recent road starts. A hot-hitting Mets club (5.3 runs per game, .842 OPS since May 25) getting a second look at the Padre lefty and backed by deGrom is the play here. BACK NEW YORK (-165).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
While the Snell-fade angle is a decent one, there is enough realistic possibility for a low-scoring pitcher’s duel. So, PASS on edging the Mets to a run-line play unless the tag becomes more attractive.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Padres bullpen also gets some fade shade here. The Friars’ offense swings the other way: San Diego has been hampered by low BABIP figures when leading off innings, batting with runners in scoring position, and in high-leverage situations.
BACK THE OVER 5.5 (-110).
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