The San Diego Padres (6-4) are set to begin a 3-game series against the New York Mets (5-5) Monday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of the 2023 season. The Padres had a 6-3 record against the Mets in 2022.
The Padres cruised to a 10-2 victory over the Atlanta Braves Sunday. San Diego has tallied 3 straight wins and outscored Atlanta 25-14 in its 4-game series.
On Sunday, the Mets lost 7-2 to the Miami Marlins with RHP Carlos Carrasco giving up 6 ER in 4 2/3 IP for his 2nd loss of the season. New York still beat Miami 2-1 in the 3-game series despite Sunday’s forgettable performance.
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Padres at Mets projected starters
RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Max Scherzer
Darvish (0-0, 1.80 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 7.2 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 through 5 IP.
- Issued 4 BB while striking out only 3 batters in his season debut against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Apr. 4.
- Has a 5-0 record with a 2.56 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 in 8 career starts against the Mets.
Scherzer (1-1, 6.35 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 11 1/3 IP.
- Has given up 3-plus ER in each game and 4 total HRs in his first 2 starts of the season.
- Has also failed to record more than 6 K’s in a start this season (had 6 K’s or more in 18 of his 23 starts in 2022).
Padres at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Mets -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-175) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Padres at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Padres 4
Moneyline
Even though Scherzer has struggled to begin the season, I’ll side with the METS (-145) at home. Darvish has also looked out of sorts to begin the season despite his 1.80 ERA in his 1st start.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
With both teams having veteran pitchers that are getting adjusted to the new season, I believe this game remains close. The Mets will inch out a close one at home, but the Padres have a lineup that’s capable of keeping this contest within 2 runs.
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Over/Under
There is value in taking OVER 7.5 (+100) as neither Darvish nor Scherzer have looked like aces thus far. Both teams are a combined 12-7-1 to the Over this season.
On top of that, the Padres and the Mets have each had 7 games this season where 8-plus total runs were scored.
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