Tag: Football Outsiders

Bills’ Devin Singletary named team’s ‘most underrated player’

#Bills’ Devin Singletary named team’s ‘most underrated player’:

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With all the movement around the Buffalo Bills this offseason, Football Outsiders (via ESPN) decided to remind us that Devin Singletary is still a valuable asset in the team’s backfield.

The Bills added multiple pieces to help quarterback Josh Allen in 2022. Depth was added behind Dawson Knox at tight end in OJ Howard. Wide receiver Jamison Crowder will help fill Cole Beasley’s shoes in the slot.

But the biggest of all these moves was using a second-round pick at the 2022 NFL draft on running back James Cook.

That’s a round where a prospect is expected to make some contributions as a rookie. That has caused some to be excited about Cook’s abilities, particularly in the passing game.

But Singletary still remains the most-likely option at the top of Buffalo’s backfield heading toward training camp. Not only does he have experience, Singletary turned it on toward the end of last season, cementing himself as the team’s best rusher.

Here’s what Football Outsiders added to the Singletary equation:

Singletary has averaged 211 touches and 5.0 touchdowns the past two seasons and has been a modest producer in typical fantasy football formats. His above-average 4.4 and 4.6 yards per attempt in the past two seasons deserves extra credit behind a bottom-10 run-blocking offensive line with 69% run block win rates. Singletary leads running backs with 200 or more touches with a 23.5% broken tackle rate the past two years, according to Sports Info Solutions charting.

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Football Outsiders gives Raiders offensive line D+ grade

Only five teams graded lower than Raiders offensive line by Football Outsiders

Breaking: The Raiders offensive line is not very good. Or more accurately; ‘Broken.’ The last coaching staff broke it by putting their faith in Trent Brown, trading away Rodney Hudson and Gabe Jackson, and failing to replace them adequately.

The new staff is scrambling to cobble together a group that can compete this season, but whether they are able to do it is still a complete mystery.

The only sure starter for the Raiders is left tackle Kolton Miller. And currently there isn’t even a clear frontrunner for the right tackle and right guard jobs.

With no clear upgrade along the line this season, it’s no wonder Football Outsiders sees them among the league’s worst groups.

In FO’s rankings, there are only five teams with a lower grade than the D+ the Raiders received — the Giants, Panthers, Texans, Titans, and Falcons.

The other three AFC West teams were all at least two tiers higher. Only one team got a higher grade than the B+ the Chiefs received (Buccaneers). Meanwhile the Broncos got a solid B grade, and the Chargers were above average with a C+.

Seahawks near bottom of Football Outsiders’ watchability ‘fun index’

After an offseason that saw many changes, the Seattle Seahawks now rank near the bottom of Football Outsider’s watchability “fun index.”

The Seattle Seahawks have undergone major changes this offseason, dealing their franchise quarterback to the Denver Broncos and releasing longtime defensive superstar Bobby Wagner, who promptly signed with the division-rival Los Angeles Rams.

Seattle did have a successful NFL draft, but the rookie additions may not have an immediate impact this season.

All that being said, will the Seahawks be enjoyable for fans to watch this year?

Not according to Football Outsiders, who recently ranked all 32 clubs based on their “fun index.” The Seahawks scored a mere 3.5, landing them at No. 26 overall in the league.

“Watching the Seahawks will be like going out for beers to cheer up a recently separated pal,” writes Mike Tanier. “‘Uh-uh, he started drinking before I got here. Oh no, he’s straight-up asking a barmaid his daughter’s age out. Maybe we should go get some coffee, buddy? Please stop sobbing.”

“Drew Lock, in this metaphor, is the Tinder date who is just using the Seahawks for a free dinner.”

Well, none of this sounds particularly exciting, but this is only one man’s opinion.

Single-game tickets are now on sale, so you can find out the Seahawks’ fun factor for yourself.

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Did Josh Allen have the worst start of any QB this season vs. Jaguars?

Did the #Bills’ Josh Allen have the worst start of any QB this season vs. #Jaguars? (via @NateMendelson):

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Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s performance on Sunday was far from good. But was it the worst performance by any quarterback this season?

Football Outsiders grades every game, for every quarterback, adjusting it to the competition. Because the Bills played the lowly Jaguars, the football analytics outlet says Allen’s numbers against them make for the worst start by a quarterback this season.

Here’s what FO wrote following the Bills’ 9-6 loss vs. the Jags:

This is now the worst game for any quarterback this season. Allen finishes in last place in part because he loses 71 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, 15 more than any other quarterback. Without those adjustments, he would have been … third-worst. With the heavy burden of those adjustments, he finished worst in DYAR on throws to running backs (9-of-12 for 61 yards with an interception), throws down the middle (8-of-13 for 77 yards with an interception), and in the third quarter (6-of-10 for 64 yards with two interceptions and a sack).

Allen finished the game with a -210 DYAR. Falcons QB Matt Ryan was the top quarterback this week with a 173 DYAR going 23/30 for 343 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints.

Allen was 31/47 for 264 yards and had two interceptions and a fumble lost.

DYAR is Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. Football Outsiders explains it as “the value of the quarterback’s performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.”

Allen didn’t have the worst box score numbers of any quarterback (just look back at Davis Mills’ start Week 4 against Buffalo) but using their explanation its understandable that Allen put forth the worst QB effort this season.

This season Allen is No. 17  in DYAR at 253. If he had a backup-worthy week and finished with a 0 he’d be fifth behind the Bucs’ Tom Brady, Rams’ Matthew Stafford, Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, Vikings; and Kirk Cousins.

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The Touchdown Wire NFL Podcast with Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar speaks with Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier about the FO Almanac and the 2021 NFL season.

In this episode of the Touchdown Wire NFL Podcast, we talk with Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders about the history of the site, their advanced metrics, the new Football Outsiders Almanac (go buy it, kids!), and their player and team projections for the 2021 NFL season.

Among the topics discussed:

  • In a world where advanced metrics are everywhere, how has it changed what FO (the originators of a lot of this) does?
  • Why FO is unexpectedly high on some teams (Seahawks, Saints), and unexpectedly low on others (Browns, Chargers)
  • What FO’s projections say about bouncebacks for teams that had rotten injury luck the year before (Hello, 49ers!)
  • Why Kliff Kingsbury needs to stop exercising his internal Chip Kelly.
  • Whether Lamar Jackson is what he is, or whether he’ll take a big leap as a passer in 2021.
  • Why Aaron is picking the Cowboys to go to the Super Bowl (!).
  • Why Carson Wentz is a flower, and Jared Goff is a JUGS machine.
  • Why the Patriots might have a bigger uptick on defense than offense this season.

All this and more with two of the smartest football guys around!

Listen to the podcast on BlogTalk Radio:

Watch on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhsIku9xDMI

What ‘daring’ move could the Falcons make this offseason?

Football Outsiders proclaim the Falcons most daring offseason move is to draft Matt Ryan’s replacement at No. 4 overall.

The biggest talking point for the Atlanta Falcons this offseason has been what to do regarding the future of Matt Ryan. While Ryan will undoubtedly be the Falcons quarterback in 2021, many anticipate the team will pick a new QB in the upcoming draft.

ESPN’s Football Outsiders detailed one daring move that each NFL team could make this offseason. For the Falcons, that move is drafting Ryan’s eventual replacement with the No. 4 overall pick, even if it’s the third or fourth quarterback selected.

“They should strongly consider picking a quarterback anyway. Matt Ryan will be 36 years old on opening day 2021. His DVOA declined every year from 2016 through 2019, finally stabilizing around 7.0% — the level of a mid-tier starter — across 2019 and 2020. Although the decline leveled off in 2020, the past two seasons were still the third-lowest and second-lowest DVOA marks of his 12-year career, with him now lingering closer to replacement level than his MVP performance in 2016.”

Atlanta clearly plans on adding a quarterback this offseason as Ryan is currently the only one on the roster. Veteran backup Matt Schaub retired and Kurt Benkert was waived a few weeks ago. In the event that the team does select a quarterback at No. 4, there’s no guarantee that player will be successful.

Ryan is the only quarterback selected in the first round between the 2006 and 2016 seasons to still play for the team that drafted him.

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3 different Browns earn votes as the best offensive lineman for the 2020 season

The Browns offensive line captured 3 of the top 8 places in the voting

Who is the best offensive lineman in the NFL from the 2020 season? It’s a question Football Outsiders posed to its subscriber base. The list wound up being heavily populated with players from Cleveland.

While none of them won, three different Cleveland Browns starters earned votes for the honor. Right guard Wyatt Teller, right tackle Jack Conklin and left guard Joel Bitonio all finished in the top seven vote-getters.

29.2% David Bakhtiari, GB
12.2% Quenton Nelson, IND
9.1% Trent Williams, SF
8.5% Wyatt Teller, CLE		 4.4% Jack Conklin, CLE
3.4% Corey Linsley, GB
3.4% Joel Bitonio, CLE
2.8% Tristan Wirfs, TB

From Football Outsiders

Maybe Browns fans dominated the voting, though that is not reflected in many of the other categories. Instead, this should be viewed as a testament to offensive line coach Bill Callahan, head coach Kevin Stefanski and the talented players all elevating their games for a special 2020 season in Cleveland.

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Midseason Saints progress report: Grading offense, defense, special teams

The New Orleans Saints are 6-2 with eight games left ahead of them, but how do the offense, defense, and special teams units grade out?

How do the New Orleans Saints grade out after eight games? With eight more still to go, they seem to be getting healthy and playing hot at the perfect time. But it’s worth looking back on their full body of work before rating each phase of the game, so here are our thoughts on the Saints offense, defense, and special teams units at midseason.

Cowboys have NFL’s easiest remaining schedule, will it matter?

https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1313573956629286912Is there hope on the horizon for the Dallas Cowboys? After their lackluster performance in Week 4, it’s been easy, heck it’s been cathartic for fans and media to revel in how inept the club looks …

https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1313573956629286912Is there hope on the horizon for the Dallas Cowboys? After their lackluster performance in Week 4, it’s been easy, heck it’s been cathartic for fans and media to revel in how inept the club looks early in the season. Head coach Mike McCarthy and his regime were dealt a bad hand, but even so, they are doing a worse job than other staffs given similar circumstances, specifically defensively.

The question now becomes whether or not Sunday’s performance was an aberration worthy of momentary derision, or whether it was the beginning of a plummet into the abyss. Most likely, based on some positives seen in the Week 3 loss to Seattle and the offense being able to score at will when they aren’t in their own way with turnovers, it’s a temporary low. The performance should bounce back. And it appears if it does, Dallas is in the fortuitous position of having an easy schedule to do it against. According to advanced analytics site Football Outsiders, Dallas has the easiest schedule across the final 12 games of any team in the NFL.

The Cowboys of course have the benefit of playing six of their final games against NFC opponent, in one of the worst divisions in recent memory. Through four games, the group has combined for just three victories, and one of those came against another division club where someone had to win.

While Dallas has disappointed their fans with their 1-3 start, Football Outsiders isn’t as down on them as one may think. Dallas ranks 16th in DVOA — defense-adjusted value over average — an analytical measure that rates team performances on a play-by-play basis, given game situation and adjusts based on opponent. Garbage time performance is given less weight, a 5-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is more valuable than a 5-yard gain on 1st-and-20, a 300-yard passing game against the Colts is more impressive than a 300-yard passing game against, well, the Cowboys. That sort of stuff.

The rest of the NFC? Whew. It’s bad.

Philadelphia, who currently sit atop the division with an impressive 1-2-1 record, is ranked No. 30 in Team DVOA this week. FO normally loves the Eagles, but even they cannot mask how bad Carson Wentz has been this season. The Washington Football Team, which beat Philly in Week 1 for their lone victory, is actually ahead of them at No. 28.

The New York Giants, Dallas’ Week 5 opponent, come in dead last.

The Cowboys, according to DVOA, are performing 3.2% worse than the average team would if given the exact same game situations. Bad, but not egregious. Washington is -17.1%. The Eagles are -29.7% and the Giants are -32.4%.

The Cardinals, Dallas’ Week 6 opponent, ranked 23rd at -9.8%.

Everything isn’t easy, however. Baltimore (4th), Pittsburgh (7th), San Francisco (9th) and Buffalo (10th) all remain on the schedule as well, with the 49ers likely having their starting QB back, unlike having to play Nick Mullens in Week 4 giving the Eagles their only win.

Execution will be the key, because games aren’t played on spreadsheets. The numers certainly make it appear Dallas has an opportunity to course-correct.

6 amazing, impressive or depressing Cowboys-Browns, quarter-pole stats

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Washington has No. 1 ranked Defensive DVOA through two weeks

Though it didn’t always seem like it on Sunday against Arizona, Washington has the No. 1 ranked defensive DVOA so far this season.

If you’re searching for a stat to get excited about in Washington, look no further than the fact that Football Outsider’s DVOA ranks them as the No. 1 defense in the league after two weeks.

For those who don’t know what DVOA is — Defense-adjusted Value Over Average — it’s a way to compare teams to the mean production of the rest of the league, using each individual play and the situation. For a defense, having a negative DVOA percentage is the best, because it means that you are allowing the least amount of production from the offense.

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For Washington, their current DVOA through Week 2 is -35.5 percent, which just edges out the Pittsburgh Steelers by .4 percent. Their pass defense is the best in the league at -51.4 percent, while their rush defense is lacking a bit, at -8.1 percent. Before you ask all of your questions about how Washington’s secondary is ranked even close to No. 1 in the league, remember that most of this top ranking can be attributed to the front-line, who routinely gets after the QB and is responsible for an NFL high 11 sacks through two weeks.

Washington’s percentage may have been buoyed a bit thanks to their Week 1 performance against the Eagles, but they did a decent job against Kyler Murray on Sunday, and will yet again have a solid test against Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns a week from now.

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