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Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s performance on Sunday was far from good. But was it the worst performance by any quarterback this season?
Football Outsiders grades every game, for every quarterback, adjusting it to the competition. Because the Bills played the lowly Jaguars, the football analytics outlet says Allen’s numbers against them make for the worst start by a quarterback this season.
Here’s what FO wrote following the Bills’ 9-6 loss vs. the Jags:
This is now the worst game for any quarterback this season. Allen finishes in last place in part because he loses 71 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, 15 more than any other quarterback. Without those adjustments, he would have been … third-worst. With the heavy burden of those adjustments, he finished worst in DYAR on throws to running backs (9-of-12 for 61 yards with an interception), throws down the middle (8-of-13 for 77 yards with an interception), and in the third quarter (6-of-10 for 64 yards with two interceptions and a sack).
Allen finished the game with a -210 DYAR. Falcons QB Matt Ryan was the top quarterback this week with a 173 DYAR going 23/30 for 343 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints.
Allen was 31/47 for 264 yards and had two interceptions and a fumble lost.
DYAR is Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. Football Outsiders explains it as “the value of the quarterback’s performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.”
Allen didn’t have the worst box score numbers of any quarterback (just look back at Davis Mills’ start Week 4 against Buffalo) but using their explanation its understandable that Allen put forth the worst QB effort this season.
This season Allen is No. 17 in DYAR at 253. If he had a backup-worthy week and finished with a 0 he’d be fifth behind the Bucs’ Tom Brady, Rams’ Matthew Stafford, Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, Vikings; and Kirk Cousins.
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