Tag: DVOA

Where ESPN ranked the 2009 Saints among 57 Super Bowl-winning teams

Did ESPN get it right? Where they ranked the 2009 Saints among 57 Super Bowl-winning teams:

Where do you rank the New Orleans Saints’ Super Bowl XLIV-winning squad among the greatest teams of all time? Or at least, among the NFL’s other 57 champions?

That’s a question that ESPN writer Aaron Schatz set out to answer. Using his advanced-stat DVOA ratings (which you can read more about here), Schatz estimated the play-by-play efficiency for every team to win a Super Bowl.

And his findings have the 2009 Saints at No. 32. New Orleans fielded a high-powered offense and an opportunistic defense that year, outscoring the next-best team by 40 points (at 510, far above the second-place Minnesota Vikings at 470) and nearly tying the league lead with 39 takeaways (the Green Bay Packers had 40).

The Saints achieved a level of dominance that season that’s only rarely seen. We’ll let Schatz explain it further:

The Saints led the NFL in DVOA after a 13-0 start but fell to sixth because of a three-game losing streak to finish off the regular season. (Their starters played in the first two of those three losses, but not the third.) The Saints were second on offense, narrowly behind the Patriots, but 13th on defense and 28th on special teams.

Their DVOA moves up nicely thanks to some big playoff victories. They dominated Arizona 45-14 in the divisional round. The NFC championship required overtime and a Brett Favre interception for a 31-28 victory over the Vikings. But then the Saints beat the Colts 31-17 in Super Bowl XLIV, capped off by a Tracy Porter pick-six off Peyton Manning.

It’s disappointing that the 2009 Saints were not ranked higher, but the numbers back it u p. They allowed the 12th-most yards per play that season on defense. No team gave up more yards per punt return (14.3) and they were fourth-worst in yards per kick return (24.5). But they made up for it with an offense that few teams could match and, critically, key stops on defense with sacks and turnovers.

That may have been a difficult strategy to sustain, but it took the Saints all the way to the Super Bowl. And when the chips were down, that same hungry defense sealed the win with one of the most memorable plays in franchise history. And we shouldn’t overlook the benefits of having a Hall of Fame quarterback in the prime of his career leading the way, either.

Now, what’s frustrating — and we’re twisting the knife here, so stop reading if you are not in the right headspace to receive information that could possibly hurt you — is how low Schatz ranked some of the teams that won the Super Bowl in years that got away from New Orleans. The 2011 New York Giants, who advanced on a miracle overtime run over the San Francisco 49ers (and who lost to the Saints in a regular season blowout) clocked in at No. 56 out of 57 Super Bowl winners. If Gregg Williams’ defense had held up against the 49ers in the final minutes of their divisional round classic, Drew Brees might have two Super Bowl rings.

Heck, he could have had three. The 2018 Patriots knocked out the Los Angeles Rams to win a championship after L.A. got through with a lot of help from a botched officiating decision in New Orleans in the conference title game. New England won that title in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl in the history of the sport. Schatz ranked them all the way down at No. 48 in this list. That’s a matchup they could have handled better than the Rams, who lost in a pathetic effort 13-3. Ah well.

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Chiefs have hardest path to Super Bowl victory since 1981 by DVOA

The #Chiefs will have to go through another defensive juggernaut to secure a victory in Super Bowl LVIII.

Nothing has come easy for the Kansas City Chiefs during the NFL’s 2023 season. Plagued by inconsistency through the regular season, the Chiefs have fought through significant adversity to secure the No. 3 seed in the AFC Playoffs and had to clinch their Super Bowl LVIII berth by winning two road games against the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.

As it turns out, Kansas City’s path to a Super Bowl victory will prove to be the hardest since 1981 by opposing DVOA, an advanced stat that measures defense-adjusted value over average.

This statistic is popular among analysts due to its ability to quantify a defense’s effectiveness and serves as a measuring stick to rank teams based on their defensive efficiency.

No offense since 1981 has had to battle against as many high-quality defenses as Kansas City en route to a Super Bowl victory.

If the Chiefs manage to secure their second-straight championship against the San Francisco 49ers, this factoid may be the most impressive aspect of their victory.

Defensive mediocrity for Seahawks now in sixth straight season

Every season the competition in the NFL evolves, and it’s been almost a decade since this team had the best defense in the sport.

If you’re looking for a culprit to blame for the Seahawks’ recent run of failures and don’t feel like pinning any individual, you could try pointing your finger at stagnation. Specifically, Seattle’s defensive philosophy may be suffering from a lack of development and a resistance to change. Every season the competition in the NFL evolves, and it’s been almost a decade since this team had the best defense in the sport.

While finding a front-four that could rival their awesome Red Bryant/Michael Bennett/Cliff Avril/Chris Clemons days would go a long way towards changing things, the truth is Pete Carroll has to catch up with the times if this defense is ever going to get back on top of the game.

Carroll’s stubborn insistence on playing a zone-heavy scheme is the biggest problem. Without a reliable pass rush, even very mediocre quarterbacks have consistently dinked and dunked this defense into winning in matchups that should have rightfully gone to Seattle. They have also refused to embrace a critical new element that the best modern defenses all have: they almost never disguise coverages.

Those are just a couple of the reasons why this team has been mediocre defensively ever since the 2017 season, their last before they inexplicably traded Michael Bennett to the Eagles for a Day 3 pick. In terms of DVOA, they’re currently at No. 22 and they haven’t cracked the top 10 in six years.

Carroll is good at what he does – at least compared to most head coaches around the NFL. His team’s sustained success over the last 13 years is proof enough of that.

However, the chances of Carroll ever having a roster as strong as he did from 2012-2015 are slim to none. Carroll and his run of defensive coordinators ever since Dan Quinn left have to accept that and change their approach to match. Otherwise, an embarrassing exit in the Divisional round of the NFC playoffs will remain their ceiling.

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Seahawks rank in top 10 in total DVOA going into Week 6

Here’s where all 32 teams rank in total team DVOA going into Week 6.

The Seahawks appear to be one of the better teams in the NFL this year. However, it’s only been four games and their one win against a good team came in overtime with no small help from the officials. In any case, standings can always be a bit misleading regarding how good a team is – especially this early in the season.

Luckily, these days we have a lot of revealing advanced stats that tell us where teams stand using more than just their record. The latest evidence that Seattle is a potential contender comes via DVOA, where the Seahawks rank in the top 10 in the NFL thanks to a good balance in all three phases – placing No. 8 on offense, No. 14 on defense and No. 10 on special teams.

Let’s see how they compare to the competition. Here’s where all 32 teams rank in total team DVOA going into Week 6.

11 things to know about Seahawks, Bengals going into Week 6 game

Bucs defense among top in NFL by advanced metrics

Tampa Bay’s defensive unit has been with the NFL’s elite over four weeks.

If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defensive unit has looked like one of the NFL’s best in its first four weeks, it’s because it absolutely has been.

The Bucs remain the only team in the NFC South with a positive point differential, and the defense is a huge reason why. The team isn’t only one of the best defenses in the league by points allowed, but advanced metrics also favor Tampa Bay and have it as boasting one of the NFL’s elite defenses through four weeks.

The first metric is EPA, or Expected Points Allowed. Naturally, for a defense, you want that to be lower, or in this case, in the negatives. As it stands, the Bucs are currently sixth in overall defensive EPA/play with a rating of -0.110, per rbsdm.com. The Bucs particularly shine with their rushing defense, managing -0.126 EPA/play in that area.

Other advanced metrics back up this claim too, though. The Bucs are also sixth in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which calculates for a team’s success relative to the season average. The Bucs defense has a DVOA of -12.7%, per FTNFantasy, making it another stat to add to Tampa Bay’s impressive run so far.

There are certainly some tough offensive opponents ahead for Tampa Bay that will test this unit. But NFC South teams beware — to beat the Bucs will require going above and beyond if the ball is in your hands.

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This stat says the Broncos have the NFL’s worst defense since at least 1981

The Broncos have the worst defensive DVOA (38.5%) through four games since the metric started being tracked in 1981.

The Denver Broncos have a historic defense, but not in a good way.

Vance Joseph’s unit has a DVOA of 38.5%, marking the worst percentage through four games since DVOA started being tracked in 1981.

DVOA is a metric created by Aaron Schatz that measures success on each play compared to the league average based on “variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality.”

Granted, allowing 70 points in a single game will skew season-long results, but it’s not just a 70-point hiccup that has the Broncos ranked so low. Denver also allowed 28 points to a previously hapless Chicago Bears offense, and the Broncos allowed 35 points to a seemingly-mediocre Washington Commanders offense.

Denver is allowing 461.5 yards per game to opposing offenses and 37.5 points per game to opponents. The Broncos have a historically-bad defense, perhaps the worst in franchise history. Admittedly, four games is a small sample size (and help might be on the way this week), but Denver’s defense is off to a troubling start in 2023.

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The 2023 Vikings have a positive DVOA

After ranking poorly in DVOA throughout 2022, the Vikings have a positive DVOA through two games

Throughout their 13-4 season, the Minnesota Vikings were constantly criticized for their poor underlying metrics, mainly DVOA, being poor. Now that they have an 0-2 start, their DVOA is now positive.

The creator of DVOA, Aaron Schatz, who is now with FTN, compiled his latest update to DVOA and the Vikings are positive in all three aspects, but being positive on defense isn’t what you want.

  • Offense: 6.3%, 14th in NFL
  • Defense: 6.1%, 20th in NFL
  • Special teams: 3.4%, 8th in NFL
  • Overall: 3.6%, 16th in NFL

The 0-2 start for the Vikings has caused multiple analysts to unfairly judge them. Yes, they lost both games by one score, but their performance was impressive in both. The only real downside to what the Vikings have done on the field has been the turnovers.

Seven turnovers through two games isn’t going to do them any favors. However, it’s also something that the Vikings can easily fix moving forward.

Overall, this is a positive sign for the Vikings moving forward.

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DVOA projects Packers to make playoffs in 2023

The Packers might be average in most areas in 2023, but that might be enough to make the playoffs in the NFC. Here’s the DVOA projection.

Projections made by Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metric have the Green Bay Packers making the playoffs as the final wildcard team in the NFC during the 2023 season.

The DVOA forecast uses a number of projection variables, including three-year DVOA trends and a prediction for each starting quarterback. Personnel changes are also factored into the projection. The Packers lost several veteran players and future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers from last year’s 8-9 team.

While the Packers ranked only 19th in DVOA’s projection, the model gave the Packers an average of 9.2 wins and a 59 percent chance of making the playoffs, in large part due to Green Bay’s weak schedule (ranked 29th) and the lack of quality teams in the NFC. Matt LaFleur’s team is viewed as the definition of average, with the No. 17 offense, No. 16 defense and No. 16 special teams projected by DVOA in 2023.

As is the case with Schatz’s projection model, so much of the Packers’ potential as a team rests on the shoulders of Jordan Love and where he ranks in the pantheon of starting quarterbacks. If he’s an average or better starter, the Packers have enough talent at running back, along the offensive line and on defense to surprise as an NFC playoff team.

In the DVOA projection, the Detroit Lions are the 12th best team and win the NFC North. The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears ranked 26th and 30th, respectively. In a wide open division and a conference lacking depth, the Packers should have a legitimate shot at the postseason in 2023.

How do advanced metrics equate to strength of schedule?

Advanced metrics have not been kind to the Vikings this season, but how does it equate to strength of schedule?

You’ve heard it all before: the Minnesota Vikings are lucky and aren’t nearly as good as their 12-3 record would indicate. In fact, there are plenty of analysts, in both good and bad faith, that would tell you just that.

We’ve heard it all at this point. The astounding NFL record in one-score games at 11-0, the NFL record eight fourth-quarter comebacks and the “luck” they have had in such games, most notably the Josh Allen fumble. There is, however, more to projection than just talking about the underlying advanced metrics. There is a lot of context that needs to be taken into account when having such nuanced discussions.

One metric that a lot of people like to mention is DVOA from Football Outsiders. It’s a metric that tries to project forward based on how you have played thus far. One thing that is interesting is how the top teams in DVOA have had a weaker strength of schedule.

Now, DVOA as Akash mentions in the next tweet is a weighted metric that grades your performance based on who your competition is. What is really intriguing is that two of the top three are in the bottom three for strength of schedule while four and five have an SOS of 23rd and 27th.

How do the Vikings fare in comparison? They rank 25th in total DVOA at -9.4% with their SOS being at 14th at 1.1%.

What can we read from this? I think the biggest thing to read from this is that the Vikings, outside of their two massive duds, play to the level of their opponent. It’s why the Vikings have played so many one-score games this season and that explanation makes total sense.

That, and creating their own luck by outscoring opponents by 75 points after the third quarter.

Packers are starting to look like a potentially dangerous playoff team

Are the Packers a middling team taking advantage of a poor NFC? Or is Matt LaFleur’s team starting to look dangerous?

The Green Bay Packers started 4-8 and needed come-from-behind victories over the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins during a current three-game win streak to get to 7-8. With two more wins, the Packers are likely headed back to the playoffs.

Here’s the big question: Are the Packers a middling football team that is just taking advantage of an opportunity in a conference that lacks depth, or is Matt LaFleur’s team getting hot at the right time and becoming a potentially dangerous playoff team in the NFC?

Some of the advanced numbers suggest the latter might be true.

We’ll first use Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) to help explain. Here’s a quick primer on DVOA, which compares a team’s efficiency in all situations based on opponent and the league average. It’s a useful tool for evaluating teams with important context but also without bias.

Consider this: Over the last five weeks, the Packers rank fourth in overall DVOA, behind only the 49ers, Bills and Eagles. Green Bay is seventh in total offense DVOA, second in rushing offense DVOA, first in passing defense DVOA and fourth in special teams DVOA.

Five weeks isn’t enough for you? Ok, let’s go back to Week 10, when Christian Watson first stepped onto the scene as a breakout star.

Since then, the Packers are sixth in overall DVOA, seventh in total offense DVOA, eighth in passing offense DVOA, second in rushing offense DVOA, third in passing defense DVOA and sixth in special teams DVOA.

Keep in mind, DVOA is opponent-adjusted. The Packers are 3-1 over the last five weeks and 4-2 since Week 10, and they haven’t necessarily faced a gauntlet schedule down the stretch. But they’ve played exceedingly well even when adjusting for quality of opponent. That’s important when projecting forward.

The offense’s revival has been encouraging. Over the last seven weeks, the Packers rank sixth in expected points added per play on offense, suggesting the offense is truly coming around to end the season.

Even over the past five weeks, the Packers have averaged 27.8 points per game despite Aaron Rodgers having four interceptions and a 85.0 passer rating during the stretch.

Running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have been terrific, the receiving corps finally got healthy and the offensive line settled in. The defense has produced 12 takeaways since Week 10, and Keisean Nixon provided a massive jolt in the return game on special teams.

The numbers paint the picture of a team that has found its footing on offense, can run the football on offense and stop the pass on defense, and will provide winning plays (without disasters) on special teams.

The Packers can be inconsistent and frustrating on both sides of the ball, and this is still one of the worst teams in the NFL defending the run, but they might have found a formula for competing with any team left in the field.

It’s worth noting that over the last seven weeks, the Packers took down the Cowboys in overtime, went punch for punch with the Eagles in Philadelphia and stunned the Dolphins in Miami.

The Packers have a lot of work to do yet – wins over the Vikings and Lions are far from guaranteed – but Green Bay appears to be playing its best ball at the right time. Even as the seventh seed, the Packers could be a dangerous team entering the NFC playoff field.

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