Why has the Buffalo Bills’ passing game become stale?

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills’ passing game have hit a wall. Can they figure it out before the postseason?

The Buffalo Bills beat the Chicago Bears last Saturday, 35-13. If you just looked at the score, you wouldn’t have any idea that the Bills were actually down at halftime, 10-6.

At the end of the second quarter, Josh Allen had only 89 passing yards, with a 74.7 quarterback rating, and Stephon Diggs didn’t have a single target.

Unfortunately, this isn’t a one-off issue. Over the last three weeks, Allen is the ranked 18th among all quarterbacks, per Pro Football Focus. He’s averaging a 60.2 completion percentage, with seven touchdowns and three turnovers in that time.

We can’t ignore the fact that the Bills look like a completely different team from quarter-to-quarter over these last three games.

Let’s dive into the film to understand what has been going on with this Bills offense!

PFF: Bills’ Mitch Morse among top NFL centers in this key stat

PFF: #Bills’ Mitch Morse among top NFL centers in this key stat:

The Buffalo Bills provided stability for the immediate future recently by extending C Mitch Morse to continue to anchor the team’s offensive line.

It would appear there is a good reason beyond his familiarity and cohesion with the offense behind that decision, in addition to the financial flexibility the new deal created for the Bills.

Pro Football Focus recognized Morse as one of only four NFL centers with a 70+ blocking grade over the past three seasons:

Morse has stated a preference for remaining in Buffalo for the remainder of his career and can be a part of the consistency the team has sought for their offense up front.

As GM Brandon Bean has prioritized protecting Josh Allen, solidifying the offensive line with moves that have included re-upping with Morse has been a part of that effort.

Given the GM’s long-term focus on competing and building depth all around the roster to sustain that level of on-field performance, it would stand to reason the team may look to add talent to the center position. This would be consistent with the player development culture in Buffalo under Beane and head coach Sean McDermott and make sense given both the short-term deal Morse signed.

Given Beane’s track record of signing veteran talent to short-term pacts and developing younger players behind them at the position, Morse will have the chance to continue to contribute toward Buffalo’s goal of winning a Super Bowl over the next couple of seasons.

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Why rookie RB James Cook is a perfect fit in the Buffalo Bills’ pass-first offense

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick goes to the film to break down how rookie running back James Cook fits like a glove in the Buffalo Bills’ offense.

The Buffalo Bills were looking to grab a running back early in 2022 NFL Draft. So, with the 63rd pick in the second round, they selected James Cook from the University of Georgia.

Last year was Cook’s most productive season — he had 728 rushing yards, seven touchdowns and 284 receiving yards with four touchdowns. In the NCAA national championship game, he led Georgia in rushing with 77 yards on six carries and set the record for the longest run in a championship game (67 yards). Cook’s ability to catch in the open field and make guys miss at the line of scrimmage was a perfect fit for the pass-first Bills.

Bills GM Brandon Beane, when asked about his new running back: “This was a guy that really stood out to us with the ball in his hands. You can split him out, he can run routes similar to a receiver, obviously he’s a good guy to hand the ball to in the backfield.”

Let’s dive deeper into the film to help figure out why Cook is a perfect scheme fit for the Bills!

PFF free agency grade: Bills extend OL Mitch Morse

C Mitch Morse agrees to new deal with Bills

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During a free agency period that has already seen some of the Bills FA’s sign with other clubs, Buffalo has signed a new deal with a central player to its offensive line.

Front and center, that is.

The team’s center Mitch Morse agreed to a short-term extension to remain with Buffalo, giving QB Josh Allen a consistent and reliable presence on offensive snaps.

Here is what Pro Football Focus had to say about Morse’s new deal:

Mitch Morse: Two years, $19.5 million ($12 million guaranteed)

Morse agreed to a pay cut prior to the 2021 season to stay in Buffalo and went on to earn his lowest grade since 2017 at 63.4 overall. However, Morse has not graded below 60.0 as a run-blocker or pass-blocker in any season since 2017, and his high floor brings stability. Continuity along the interior may be especially important with the Bills deciding to release 2021 right guard Daryl Williams.

Grade: Average

Morse made his feelings clear when re-signing with Buffalo, even going as far as to state that he wants to retire in a Bills uniform.

As the team released 2021 starters Jon Feliciano and Daryl Williams to free up over $6 million in cap space, they also re-worked some deals for players currently under contract. 

As Morse’s deal lowers his cap hit from $11.25 million in 2022 to $9 million and creates over $2 million in additional financial flexibility to add talent in free agency, the new pact makes sense for the Bills.

GM Brandon Bean has prioritized protecting Josh Allen and is in the midst of looking to improve the offensive line, and that Morse would be viewed as part of that solution for the next couple of years is also of note.

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Did Josh Allen have the worst start of any QB this season vs. Jaguars?

Did the #Bills’ Josh Allen have the worst start of any QB this season vs. #Jaguars? (via @NateMendelson):

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Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s performance on Sunday was far from good. But was it the worst performance by any quarterback this season?

Football Outsiders grades every game, for every quarterback, adjusting it to the competition. Because the Bills played the lowly Jaguars, the football analytics outlet says Allen’s numbers against them make for the worst start by a quarterback this season.

Here’s what FO wrote following the Bills’ 9-6 loss vs. the Jags:

This is now the worst game for any quarterback this season. Allen finishes in last place in part because he loses 71 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, 15 more than any other quarterback. Without those adjustments, he would have been … third-worst. With the heavy burden of those adjustments, he finished worst in DYAR on throws to running backs (9-of-12 for 61 yards with an interception), throws down the middle (8-of-13 for 77 yards with an interception), and in the third quarter (6-of-10 for 64 yards with two interceptions and a sack).

Allen finished the game with a -210 DYAR. Falcons QB Matt Ryan was the top quarterback this week with a 173 DYAR going 23/30 for 343 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints.

Allen was 31/47 for 264 yards and had two interceptions and a fumble lost.

DYAR is Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. Football Outsiders explains it as “the value of the quarterback’s performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.”

Allen didn’t have the worst box score numbers of any quarterback (just look back at Davis Mills’ start Week 4 against Buffalo) but using their explanation its understandable that Allen put forth the worst QB effort this season.

This season Allen is No. 17  in DYAR at 253. If he had a backup-worthy week and finished with a 0 he’d be fifth behind the Bucs’ Tom Brady, Rams’ Matthew Stafford, Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, Vikings; and Kirk Cousins.

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Bills QB Josh Allen doesn’t have great memories versus Texans

The last time Josh Allen saw the Houston Texans, he got injured. The Buffalo Bills quarterback isn’t trying to spark those bad memories on Saturday.

Oct. 14, 2018, a rookie Josh Allen earned his fifth career start. The Buffalo Bills quarterback would win up throwing for 84 yards in the eventual loss to the Houston Texans. He did not finish the game, as he sustained a throwing-elbow injury that sidelined him for the next four outings.

On Saturday, Allen will return to NRG Stadium to face the Texans in a wild card matchup. The winner of the tilt goes on to the next round of the playoffs. For the 23-year-old quarterback, that means recollect not so pleasant memories, that he also learned from.

“Obviously going through that game there’s not great memories, no one likes getting hurt, but having the opportunity to have Derek [Anderson] and Matt [Barkley] come in, learning from those two guys, it was a blessing in disguise,” Allen told Buffalo media on Wednesday. “But having that experience of playing there, seeing a familiar stadium — the crowd’s going to be hyped up a little more being a playoff game, but kind of having a feel for that is experience we can take into that game.”

Allen ultimately eventually found himself back in the Bills’ lineup and started for the entirety of his second season. In year two, the Wyoming product led Buffalo to a 10-6 record, passing for 3,089 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions on a 58.8% completion rate. He recorded 510 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in the process.

Allen feels as if he’s a different player than what the Texans saw early in the 2018 season.

“Yeah, going back and looking at our notes from last year — being in the same system that they’ve had — just going back and watching that film, seeing how they may have played me, not saying that they’re going to do that again, but I feel like I’m a different player from last year and it’s a different offense, so we have to go out there and control what we can control and do us,” Allen said.

The Texans did a good job containing Allen before his injury in October of 2018. Only time will tell if they did that again on Saturday against a “different” version of him.

Josh Allen on John Brown: ‘I wouldn’t trade him for anybody’

Allen adds he thins Brown is a Pro Bowl WR.

Following a 37-20 victory over the Miami Dolphins, that saw the Bills improve to 7-3 on the season, there was plenty of praise for Buffalo’s offense.

One player in particular who was applauded, was Bills wide receiver John Brown.

Brown finished the day with nine catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns.

During Josh Allen’s postgame interview on CBS, the quarterback had high remarks for his top wideout.

“He’s unbelievable,” Allen said. “The things that he can do. How well he runs routes. How well he communicates… he’s the ultimate teammate too. He’s a Pro Bowler in my eyes. You know, I love having him and we’re lucky to have him.”

Allen was later asked by members of the media what makes John Brown special.

“He’s been fantastic for us. Just how he goes about each and every day,” Allen said. “He goes and attacks. All-time teammate. Guy that no one can say anything bad about. Just a guy that goes in and works and wants to get better. Doesn’t care about stats. Doesn’t’ care about touchdowns. He cares about winning and when you have a recipe like that, you’re determined for success. I wouldn’t trade him for anybody.”

John Brown himself was asked about the difference this week, for a Bills offense that has struggled throughout the season to put up points.

“We just knew what we had to do,” Brown told reporters. “We had to eliminate the mistakes we were making and we wanted to be more dialed in than we ever been. We haven’t played our best game yet…”

Brown also returned the praise for Allen, when discussing the 40-yard touchdown strike from his QB.

“He just made a perfect throw,” Brown told the media. “Most people don’t make that throw, so hey, he got a cannon.”

At 7-3, the Bills control their own destiny when it comes to making the playoffs, however the road ahead gets much tougher.

Over the next five games, the Bills will face the third-toughest schedule, based on opponent win percentage.

In order for the Bills to continue their march towards the postseason, the Allen/Brown connection and the offense overall, will have to continue to find a way to make plays, just like we saw today.

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