fantasy football streamers – Page 2

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 12

Fresh off a bye, the Colts face a pass-friendly fantasy matchup to exploit.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 12

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 4-7-0
All-time record: 23-38-3 (38.3%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55	74.7	41.7	20.8	150.3	66.5	16.1	25.5	88	121.4	138.8
Grade	E	C	F-	F-	A+	D	F-	F-	B+	A+	A+

Last week, Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley was the selection and made it three straight successful recommendation. He turned in a monster effort after failing to reach seven PPR points in three of the previous four games. Scratching and clawing my way back to getting even, this week’s choice is a former Jaguar who is trying to navigate a divisional foe to victory over a member of the NFC South.

Indianapolis Colts QB Gardner Minshew vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minshew returns from the bye with wide receiver Josh Downs no longer on the injury report, which helps his odds. Another factor working in the quarterback’s favor is that Tampa Bay has been strong against running backs, which should lead to a bit more passing from Indy.

In addition to Downs, who is having a strong rookie campaign, Minshew will have Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and tight end Kylen Granson available. The Bucs have given up a fair amount of work to TEs so far, and the position has been rocked by receivers not only on the year but even more so in the last few weeks. This matchup for wideouts sits 60.4% easier than the league average in the last three weeks, 33.8% over the last five, and 24.1% on the season. That kind of success rarely occurs without a strong quarterback performance.

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At home, Indianapolis battles a Bucs defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game (23.2) to quarterbacks in 2023. Over the last five weeks, no defense has given up more points to the position (28.2). In the past three contests, we’ve seen Brock Purdy (30.1) and C.J. Stroud (44.4) explode vs. Tampa as injuries and a lack of pressure have played major roles in the aerial success.

Every passer but rookie Will Levis posted at least 250 yards and 22 or more fantasy points following the Buccaneers’ Week 5 bye. Three of those guys went for 30 or more points, and Josh Allen is the only name on that list anyone drafted as a fantasy QB1.

As long as Minshew puts the ball up 30 times, he’s a decent bet to finish as a fantasy starter this week. The major risk at play here is he hasn’t done either of those things in the last three games.

My projection: 21-of-31 attempts, 277 yards, 2 TDs, 1 rush, 7 yards (22.6 fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 11

In a season filled with ups and downs, expect a return to fantasy utility from this wideout.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 11

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 3-7-0
All-time record: 21-38-3 (36.3%)

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55	74.7	41.7	20.8	150.3	66.5	16.1	25.5	88	121.4
Grade	E	C	F-	F-	A+	D	F-	F-	B+	A+

Well, look at that … consecutive “wins” and a resounding one last week with the choice of Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith. Hopefully, this slight momentum builds and leads to a third straight week of successful prognostication!

Like Smith, this week’s selection is a universally owned receiver whose preseason expectations have overshadowed his actual production.

Jacksonville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley vs. Tennessee Titans

The former Atlanta Falcons receiver has been all over the map in 2023, and the last four games have seen Ridley post three lines with 26 offensive yards being his ceiling; a six-catch, 83-yarder headlines that stretch. He hasn’t scored since Week 4.

It hasn’t been all bad for Ridley in his first year as a Jaguar. He has four games with at least 11.8 PPR returns, and two of those outings were north of 20 points. Six of his nine appearances have seen at least seven targets sent Ridley’s way. His biggest issue has been wild inconsistency. The peaks and valleys have been dramatic, and when the vet has been bad, we’re talking four games with seven or fewer points. Some of the struggles can be pinned on erratic quarterback play, but difficult matchups have factored in a substantial manner.

The matchup is 14.9% easier to exploit than the league average on the year and 11.3% softer in the last five weeks. Tennessee having faced a pair of suspect passing games along the way (IND, ATL) has kept this from being an even stronger matchup rating.

There’s a quality opportunity to get on track this week vs. a Tennessee unit that has permitted wide receivers to average the 13th-most catches and 12th-most yards per game since Week 5 ended. A dozen squads have ceded TDs at a higher clip over that period. On the year, eight receivers have gone for at least 16 PPR points against the Titans, and Ridley should make it nine.

My projection: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 79 yards, 1 TD (20.9 PPR points)

Fantasy football waiver wire: Week 11 free-agent forecast

Here are the top targets on the waiver wire in Week 11.

With just a few more weeks until the fantasy football playoffs are here, the waiver wire has a number of intriguing targets for managers to consider entering Week 11.

The slate of Week 10 games will come to a conclusion Monday night when the Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos.

Teams on a bye in Week 11 include the Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons.

We’ll be taking a look at the top available players rostered in Yahoo leagues, using the 75% rostered mark as the threshold. If you have any questions about prioritizing a certain player over another, don’t be afraid to hit me up on X, formerly Twitter, (@KevinHickey11). Your questions and comments are always welcome!

We also will be taking a look at some deeper players to stash and the top streaming options for the upcoming week.

Fantasy football waiver wire recommendations refer to 12-team league formats, unless specifically stated.

Check back for any updates throughout Monday and Tuesday as more injury news becomes available.

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 10

A premier matchup has a struggling veteran poised to rebound in Week 10.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 10

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 2-7-0
All-time record: 20-38-3 (32.8%)

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55	74.7	41.7	20.8	150.3	66.5	16.1	25.5	88
Grade	E	C	F-	F-	A+	D	F-	F-	B+

Last week’s selection of New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry was a risky proposition, but he came through to exceed the threshold and return close enough to the projected line to be considered a “win” for this article’s purposes.

This week, we train our focus on a floundering quarterback whose contributions to fantasy teams has been sorely lacking, but some fortunate gamers get a massive break in a week in which the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Jalen Hurts are on bye.

Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith vs. Washington Commanders

Following his breakout 2022 season, Smith has finished no better than QB8 in any contest this year, which came way back in Week 2. He has only three appearances with 20 or more fantasy points along the way, and managers who drafted him as a starter have suffered through no touchdowns in two of Smith’s last four outings.

The Seahawks have the necessary weapons to get the job done, and running back Kenneth Walker III (chest) is banged up. He has been on the injury report the last two weeks with various ailments, including a minor calf issue entering Week 8. Plus, Washington is respectable against running backs, and this defense is vastly weaker at slowing wide receivers.

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Smith should have ample time to throw, even though his line has given up the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL. Washington traded away its two most talented pass rushers, and this defense has applied pressure at the 12th-lowest rate in 2023.

The trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (hip) easily have the upper hand vs. a feeble secondary, particularly down the field as this group has faced the third-highest average depth per target. Teams don’t take that many deep shots without an obvious reward. With vertical specialists in Metcalf and JSN, Washington could give up several huge plays, even if Smith has a low-volume day.

Quarterbacks have posted at least 279 yards and two touchdowns in five of the last six contests against the Commanders, and this matchup is 32.3% better than the league average in that time frame. On the season, the matchup is even more favorable for Smith. Through nine showings, Washington has permitted 19 touchdown passes (T-1st) and the third-most fantasy points, on average. One in 16.7 attempts has found the end zone, and one in 10.4 completions went for six points. QBs have averaged 264.9 aerial yards over the course of 2023.

Smith has more or less been a fantasy anchor this year but is in a prime situation to exploit a plus matchup.

My projection: 23-of-35 attempts for 286 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 rushes for 6 yards (22.9 fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 9

Will this once-vaunted TE rise from the ashes to contribute line lineups this week?

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 9

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-7-0
All-time record: 19-38-3

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55	74.7	41.7	20.8	150.3	66.5	16.1	25.5
Grade	E	C	F-	F-	A+	D	F-	F-

This train wreck continues … the absolute worst part of it for me has been two of the last three weeks I simply chose the wrong player. In Week 6, I strongly debated taking Tyler Boyd, and last week I stupidly ignored my gut and took Jamaal Williams over Gabe Davis. So, let’s see if I can pick the right guy (Royce Freeman is my other strong lean) and put another W on the board …

New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry vs. Washington Commanders

I fully recognize this one is about as risky as they come, and it doesn’t do me any favors from the W-L perspective, because the odds definitely are stacked against this one coming to fruition.

Henry has not topped 9.1 PPR points or scored since Week 2, and the former Los Angeles Charger has no more than three targets in the last month of play. The chemistry with Mac Jones just hasn’t been there, and that’s a major concern in this recommendation.

However, necessity is the mother of invention, and the idea here is the loss of wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (knee) as well as the utter void of connection between Jones and JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Patriots are desperately in need of someone to step up in the passing game, so there’s a clear path to an increased target share for Henry.

Washington has totally flopped vs. the position in the last month. This matchup rates in the top eight for receptions and yardage per game as well as ease of TDs in relation to catches allowed since Week 3. Tight ends have averaged 5.8 receptions, 59.8 yards, and a TD every 7.3 grabs, good for 16.6 PPR points an outing. Only three teams have allowed more fantasy points per game in both primary scoring systems, and this is the fourth-most efficient matchup of the week.

[lawrence-related id=483661]

All four of the TDs against Washington have come in the last four weeks. In that time, Cole Kmet, Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, and Darren Waller all posted at least 136 PPR points, with the New York Giant finishing with 22.8 as the high-water mark. Washington presents a matchup rating that is 66.7% higher than the league average in the last three weeks and 31.7% better in the most recent five games.

Henry isn’t going to be a volume guy in this one, but he certainly could tack on another touchdown to that list, and a pair of scores isn’t out of reach. Play him if you’re backed into a corner, but this likely will be an all-or-nothing result.

My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 48 yards, 1 TD (15.8 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 8

Will this touchdown machine get his lost season back on track in Week 8?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 8

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-6-0
All-time record: 19-37-3

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55%	74.7%	41.7%	20.8%	150.3%	66.5%	16.1%
Grade	E	C	F-	F-	A+	D	F-

And here I thought Week 4 was rock bottom!

In Week 7, New York Giants wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson caught one of his two targets for 22 yards and that was it all she wrote. Darren Waller and Jalin Hyatt led the aerial game in targets, and Robinson posted his worst fantasy stat line since this rookie debut … just the way I drew it up.

My overall success rate of 32.2% would be a respectable MLB career hitting average, but it’s far too low for my liking when it comes to weekly fantasy prognostication, even on total flier calls. This week, the need to take a gamble is much lower with no teams on vacation, and the lack of byes means this recommendation is best utilized for daily fantasy action. However, if you’re in a bind or willing to risk a flex spot, there is merit to such a move.

New Orleans Saints RB Jamaal Williams at Indianapolis Colts

Williams suffered a hamstring injury in Week 2 that caused him to go on the Reserve/Injured list and cost the veteran four contests before returning in Week 7. He faced a quality Jacksonville defense last Sunday but failed to do much of anything, rushing just five times for 14 yards. He was on the field for a mere 22.2% of the offensive snaps and rushed once in the red zone but not at all inside of the 10-yard line. Williams wasn’t targeted for the second time in three outings.

He heads to Indianapolis for a date with one of the weakest defenses of the running back position, and we can view last week’s limited showing as the 28-year-old shaking off the rust.

[lawrence-related id=483321]

Alvin Kamara overcame a midweek illness but is coming off three straight showings with a 3.6 yards-per-carry average, which is quite a bit below the league average. Now, that’s not all his fault as the offensive line has battled some injuries and tough enough opponents to depress his numbers.

Kamara has seen no fewer than 25 utilizations in each game back from his suspension, and that’s just not a wise floor to maintain. New Orleans needs to get Williams more involved and compartmentalize their respective roles to a greater degree. Game flow, however, plays a pivotal role in that coming to fruition.

The Colts are not likely to put the Saints in an early hole that requires an abandonment of the running game, and that’s going to work in Williams’ favor. As long as this game is within, say, 10 points on the board at any time entering the fourth, New Orleans will pound the ball.

Indianapolis has surrendered massive numbers to running backs, especially in the last five weeks. This is the sixth-easiest opponent to face for rushing yardage per game since Week 2 ended, and only the Carolina Panthers have yielded touchdowns at a higher rate in relation to number of carries faced. One in every 18.6 attempts has found paydirt, and that has come against the fourth-most rushes per game. Six backs have posted at least 15.1 PPR points, and three of them a have scored multiple times on the ground.

My projection: 14 carries, 52 yards, 2 TDs, 1 target, 1 reception, 6 yards (18.8 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 7

This second-year receiver is on the rise at the right time for fantasy footballers.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 7

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-5-0
All-time record: 19-36-3

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55%	74.7%	41.7%	20.8%	150.3%	66.5%
Grade	E	C	F-	F-	A+	D

After a dismal 1-5, I share a record with New England, Chicago, Denver, Arizona, and the New York Giants … but at least I’m not the Carolina Panthers!

Coping aside, last week was so close to being a win that it stings more than the blowout losses I encountered earlier in the year. The prediction of Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford would have been good if tight end Tyler Higbee didn’t drop a perfectly thrown ball at the goal line that was a sure touchdown.

Further pouring salt in my wound, Cincinnati Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd was the player I strongly debated over Stafford … Spilled milk, I suppose, but it goes to show how fickle this game is both in reality and on the prognosticative front.

While gaining momentum from going 2-4 would have felt much better, we have to dust off and keep going … there’s a lot of football yet to be played.

New York Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Washington Commanders

Since returning from last year’s torn ACL, Robinson has been a steady contributor for the hapless New York offense. In Week 3, he played just 22 percent of the snaps, so we won’t hold that against him, but the second-year pro still logged four receptions on his five targets. He has seen at least seven utilizations go his way in each of the last three games, topping out at last week’s eight-look day that resulted in a 100% catch rate and 62 yards, the second-best mark of his injury-shortened career.

New York played without quarterback Daniel Jones (neck) last week, and it’s not hard to connect the dots to Robinson being more productive. Veteran Tyrod Taylor surely isn’t the answer to the Giants’ woes, nor is he likely to be any worse than the man he is replacing. The entire offense looked more competent with the journeyman running the show, and there’s something to be said for less chaos creating a positive ripple effect.

Having Saquon Barkley (ankle) back on the field didn’t negatively impact Robinson’s target share, either, as the slot receiver garnered 28 percent of the looks. He also had a season-high 76.9% rate of routes run while seeing only 58.7% of the offensive snaps.

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Washington has permitted serious work to the position in 2023. No team has surrendered more yardage in total, and this is the best matchup over the last five weeks, too, for per-game results in that category. It’s also the best for non-PPR points allowed, yards-per-reception average, PPR points per touch, and ease of scoring touchdowns in relation to volume. The 14th-fewest catches allowed per contest created the most TD grabs by a margin of two, coming at one every 7.2 receptions landed.

Of the 231.8 total PPR points granted to the position since Week 1 ended, receptions and yardage combine to account for 76.4% of the success. Nine receivers have posted at least 10 points in PPR, and four of them did it without even finding the end zone.

So we have a stellar matchup profile, an uptick in route involvement, a healthy target share, and more stability at quarterback … Robinson is poised for another quality showing — perhaps the best of his to-date 11-game career.

My projection: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 69 yards, 1 TD (19.9 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 6

Will this seasoned veteran drop dimes on a suspect defense?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 6

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-4-0
All-time record: 19-35-3

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55%	74.7%	41.7%	20.8%	150.3%
Grade	E	C	F-	F-	A+

It’s nice to get one in the win column, but building momentum is the goal. Last week, Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert was the choice, and he far exceeded my expectations. This week, we’re going to look in a different direction after focusing on the tight end position the last few games.

Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford vs. Arizona Cardinals

Through five games, the 35-year-old has averaged a single touchdown pass and finally threw multiple TD strikes last week for the first time in 2023. Stafford has managed at least 300 yards in 60 percent of his contests this season, and his fantasy floor is 17.8 as QB16 in Week 1, which actually wasn’t the lowest ranking for him. He finished QB21 a few weeks later, despite scoring more points. With that established, Stafford hasn’t finished better than QB15 this year and has only 21.4 points as his personal best in 2023.

Los Angeles enjoyed the return of star receiver Cooper Kupp in Week 5, and he didn’t miss a beat after being unavailable since Week 10 last season. Not only did that help, but rookie phenom Puka Nacua remained highly involved and quite effective. Third receiver Tutu Atwell offers another dangerous outlet, running back Kyren Williams is versatile enough to help in the passing game, and tight end Tyler Higbee is capable of chipping away over the middle.

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This week, the matchup favors passing over running — and especially so to the wide receiver position, which is LA’s offensive strength. Kupp, Nacua and Atwell should be a viable three-deep weapons cache for fantasy purposes, and that won’t happen without Stafford being no worse than solid.

Given the opponent, however, he has a prime opportunity to be much better than that … the Cardinals have given up the sixth-most passing yards per game (274.4) and touchdowns at the 14th-easiest rate in relation to number of balls thrown. Only two defenses have yielded more points per offensive play by a quarterback.

Arizona has given up three rushing scores to quarterbacks in 2023, that’s in no way Stafford’s game at this stage of his career. While he rushed for a pair of scores in the 2021 playoffs, he has a single ground TD to his name since the 2016 season concluded. But even when the trio of rushing touchdowns are removed, this is still the seventh-best matchup to exploit.

The Cardinals could be without their two best defensive backs, Despite averaging a respectable 3.0 sacks per game on 35 attempts faced, this defense has allowed the fifth-highest offensive scoring rate per drive and the 17th-lowest percentage of drives ending in a turnover. Arizona is tied for the third-lowest blitz percentage and second-worst pressure rate — the likely difference-maker for Stafford behind an offensive line that has allowed the 10th-lowest pressure rate.

My projection: 303 passing yards, 6 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT (23.18 points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 5

Will this veteran tight end finally return to the end zone?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 5

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 0-4-0
All-time record: 18-35-3

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55%	74.7%	41.7%	20.8%
Grade	E	C	F-	F-

There are no two ways around this being by far the worst start to — as well as among the longest losing streaks of — any year I’ve been doing this series. The entire concept is ripe for a low success rate, but 0-4 is unacceptable in any context.

Last week’s featured failure was Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox vs. Miami Dolphins, marking consecutive games in which I was so flatly wrong about Miami that my recommendations flopped because of the incorrect view of game flow. In Week 3, Javonte Williams was my pick, but I never saw Miami jumping out to a 49-13 lead through three quarters, which eliminated Williams from the game plan. Last week, I didn’t foresee Miami being down big most of the way, thus meaning Buffalo didn’t need to pass excessively.

Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert at Los Angeles Rams

For Week 5’s recommendation, statistical data is taking a passenger seat to situational football and extenuating circumstances. Goedert, a once-coveted fantasy option, has fallen on hard times. He has scored a mere touchdown in his last 10 appearances and reached double-digit PPR points in just 30 percent of those games and only 22.2 percent of the time when he didn’t find the end zone.

Philadelphia has so many weapons that he can get lost in the mix, and the team’s vertical success also detracts from Goedert’s number of opportunities in the red zone given that the team is tied for fourth at generating passing plays over 25 yards.

Los Angeles has allowed the 20th-most TE receptions but the sixth-highest scoring frequency in 2023, and this profiles as a top-10 matchup in both primary scoring systems. The Rams have given up only the 12th-most yards per attempt, and this is the sixth-best defense at limiting yardage after the catch. Just six teams have been weaker at allowing touchdowns in the red zone. Two Indianapolis Colts tight ends reached double figures in PPR last week, and two of the three previous matchups were against offenses that don’t involve the position much.

While there are some notable stats working in Goedert’s favor, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni said the team still intends to feed him on offense.

“Trust me – I promise you he’s still part of the plan of us wanting to get him the football. We need to get him the football,” Sirianni said. “Sometimes there’s a dry spell in there, too, with what’s kind of going on right now. There are some different things that defenses are concerned of with Dallas that has affected some of the touches he’s gotten. It’s a bit of both. He is a great player. We rely on him.”

In Week 5, the tight ends on bye aren’t serious fantasy factors, making it tougher to rely on the struggling veteran. Fortunately, most people who drafted Goedert did so with the intention of him being a weekly starter. Tough it out one more time if you’ve been considering replacement options in recent weeks.

My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 61 yards, 1 TD (17.1 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 4

Will this TD-reliant veteran find the end zone in Week 4? His value depends on it.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 4

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 0-3-0
All-time record: 18-34-3

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55%	74.7%	41.7%
Grade	E	C	F-

Not much to say about last week’s utter failure of a pick in Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams. It’s not that he played poorly, but the Miami Dolphins obliterated their opponent, which led to an abandonment of the running game. I’m a little surprised he didn’t see more targets, but all things Broncos stunk out loud.

TE Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Going back to the well against Miami … hopefully there’s something in the bucket when it reaches the surface this week. Tight end is one of the most volatile positions in fantasy, and Knox is overly reliant on finding the end zone. That’s a combination for an extra-risky recommendation, so this won’t be for the faint of heart.

Buffalo has sent only 11 total targets Knox’s direction in 2023. He has a mere seven catches and no more than 25 yards in any game, scoring once in Week 2. Knox current sits one target shy of rookie Dalton Kincaid, the team’s future at the position, but the rookie has just 9.3 PPR points as his high-water mark through three contests. The veteran has twice as many targets in the red zone, which is where Knox scored his lone TD.

Miami has given up the seventh-most fantasy points to the position in ’23, and that includes allowing 1.1 to all three Denver TEs last weekend. The majority of positional success has come from a pair of touchdowns in the first two games (Donald Parham and Hunter Henry), though we saw Mike Gesicki nab five passes for 33 yards in Week 2 for 19.3 percent of the total fantasy success.

While volume usually isn’t Knox’s game, he managed to post a 6-98-1 line in the 2022 Week 15 meeting, though his previous Week 3 trip to Miami was good for a lowly 6.5 points in PPR. These divisional foes played three times last season, including the Wild Card meeting in which Knox’s number was dialed five times, leading to 11 PPR points on a 3-20-1 day.

This one comes down to game script and the Dolphins having to stop Buffalo’s receiving corps. The Miami offense from last week would force the Bills into an all-hands-on-deck script. That’s not a reliable outlook given the strength of the Buffalo defense, and gamers considering Knox should be solely focused on a situational touchdown. He’s useless without one. Consider playing him only if you have someone like Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz, Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, or Pat Freiermuth as your drafted TE1.

My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 44 yards, 1 TD (15.4 PPR points)