Jamaal Williams fantasy football

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 8

Will this touchdown machine get his lost season back on track in Week 8?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 8

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-6-0
All-time record: 19-37-3

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
%	55%	74.7%	41.7%	20.8%	150.3%	66.5%	16.1%
Grade	E	C	F-	F-	A+	D	F-

And here I thought Week 4 was rock bottom!

In Week 7, New York Giants wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson caught one of his two targets for 22 yards and that was it all she wrote. Darren Waller and Jalin Hyatt led the aerial game in targets, and Robinson posted his worst fantasy stat line since this rookie debut … just the way I drew it up.

My overall success rate of 32.2% would be a respectable MLB career hitting average, but it’s far too low for my liking when it comes to weekly fantasy prognostication, even on total flier calls. This week, the need to take a gamble is much lower with no teams on vacation, and the lack of byes means this recommendation is best utilized for daily fantasy action. However, if you’re in a bind or willing to risk a flex spot, there is merit to such a move.

New Orleans Saints RB Jamaal Williams at Indianapolis Colts

Williams suffered a hamstring injury in Week 2 that caused him to go on the Reserve/Injured list and cost the veteran four contests before returning in Week 7. He faced a quality Jacksonville defense last Sunday but failed to do much of anything, rushing just five times for 14 yards. He was on the field for a mere 22.2% of the offensive snaps and rushed once in the red zone but not at all inside of the 10-yard line. Williams wasn’t targeted for the second time in three outings.

He heads to Indianapolis for a date with one of the weakest defenses of the running back position, and we can view last week’s limited showing as the 28-year-old shaking off the rust.

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Alvin Kamara overcame a midweek illness but is coming off three straight showings with a 3.6 yards-per-carry average, which is quite a bit below the league average. Now, that’s not all his fault as the offensive line has battled some injuries and tough enough opponents to depress his numbers.

Kamara has seen no fewer than 25 utilizations in each game back from his suspension, and that’s just not a wise floor to maintain. New Orleans needs to get Williams more involved and compartmentalize their respective roles to a greater degree. Game flow, however, plays a pivotal role in that coming to fruition.

The Colts are not likely to put the Saints in an early hole that requires an abandonment of the running game, and that’s going to work in Williams’ favor. As long as this game is within, say, 10 points on the board at any time entering the fourth, New Orleans will pound the ball.

Indianapolis has surrendered massive numbers to running backs, especially in the last five weeks. This is the sixth-easiest opponent to face for rushing yardage per game since Week 2 ended, and only the Carolina Panthers have yielded touchdowns at a higher rate in relation to number of carries faced. One in every 18.6 attempts has found paydirt, and that has come against the fourth-most rushes per game. Six backs have posted at least 15.1 PPR points, and three of them a have scored multiple times on the ground.

My projection: 14 carries, 52 yards, 2 TDs, 1 target, 1 reception, 6 yards (18.8 PPR points)

Saints RB Alvin Kamara docked 3 games by NFL for assault charge

How to address Kamara in fantasy football drafts now that he has been suspended.

At long last, the fantasy football community knows how to properly value New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara after a looming suspension overshadowed his draft stock. Following a plea agreement in a Las Vegas assault case, the star running back met with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell this week and learned his fate Friday, a three-game suspension.

This means the Saints and fantasy owners will be without Kamara for games against the Tennessee Titans at home and trips to the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers. He returns in Week 4 to face a damning Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense, followed by a visit to the New England Patriots before the schedule eases up a degree.

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In 2022 action, Carolina skewed toward the tougher side of the league vs. PPR backs. The Titans were thoroughly dominant against the position, ranking as the second-hardest unit to exploit. Carolina surrendered 15 offensive scores to running backs, while Tennessee allowed just seven. In some ways, this may prove to be a blessing in disguise to miss vs. the Titans.

Green Bay was the 10th-weakest unit last year but dealt with key injuries and played below its talent level at times. Expect a much better effort in 2023, and a trip to Lambeau, even in September, isn’t ideal for a dome team.

Gamers will be without Kamara during one of the least pivotal times in the season when bye weeks will not be an issue. While everyone likes to get off to a hot start, fantasy playoff position hardly determined in September.

Fantasy football takeaway

Kamara’s absence means we’ll see the Saints rely heavily on Jamaal Williams in the first three games. Given the aforementioned matchup difficulty and his lesser talents a receiving back, consider him a flex vs. Carolina but easily benchable vs. Tennessee. He can serve as your RB2 vs. Green Bay.

Rookie Kendre Miller (knee) can remain in reserve. He’s still working his way back from knee surgery and has missed enough time to expect a sluggish start to his NFL career.

As for Kamara himself, he has been going as a low-tier RB2 in most PPR formats, and that remains a sound placement for him given his struggles of late and the missing games.

Expect the Saints to put their massive investment into quarterback Derek Carr to good use while Kamara is out, thus amplifying the worth of Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Juwan Johnson.

Here’s the best way to address Saints RBs in fantasy football

How does a looming suspension of Alvin Kamara affect fantasy football plans?

During their peak years under current Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton, the New Orleans Saints featured a two-headed rushing attack that featured, most memorably, the tandem of running backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. After Ingram departed, the team tried to plug veteran RB Latavius Murray in alongside Kamara, but it wasn’t as effective. Then, over the last two years, New Orleans has leaned on Kamara as the primary back.

The results haven’t been great, and the offseason signing of RB Jamaal Williams, who led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with the Detroit Lions last year, was a move to help bring the ground game back to its previous heights while lessening the load on Kamara. The Saints also drafted running back Kendre Miller in the third round, though that seems more like a move with an eye on the future rather than 2023.

While Payton is gone, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael remains, entering his 15th season in the role. He’ll be tasked with integrating Williams, as well as new QB Derek Carr, and reinvigorating an offense that finished 19th and 22nd, respectively, in scoring the past two years after ranking in the top 10 in each of the previous 10 campaigns.

Fantasy Football: Is Alvin Kamara worth the risk given his legal situation?

A possible suspension looms large over Kamara’s fantasy draft stock.

For more than a year, New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has been the subject of speculation as to whether his NFL career will be impacted by his participation in the alleged beating of a man at a Las Vegas nightclub on Pro Bowl weekend in February 2022. Kamara is charged with felony battery that carries a penalty of one to five years in Nevada state prison, if convicted with a trial set to start July 31.

The trial date coincides with the start of training camp. While veterans typically aren’t pushed hard in camp, being away from teammates while new quarterback Derek Carr is working his way into a new organization doesn’t help.

While the real-life implications in Kamara’s life are more important, from the fantasy football perspective, Kamara finds himself in a no man’s land of concerns over whether he will face penalties from the State of Nevada, the NFL, or both.

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For leagues that conduct drafts early, there will be a cloud hanging over Kamara, regardless of whether the court case goes forward. Even when players have been found not guilty in court, the league has imposed punishment of its own – typically a suspension of between two and six games. To date, the NFL has remained silent on the matter – reserving judgment on what (if any) punishment it will hand down until after the court case is finalized. Drafting as late as possible is ideal but not always feasible.

For their part, the Saints appear to be prepared for life without Kamara. The team signed 2022 scoring machine Jamaal Williams in free agency and used its third-round draft pick on Kendre Miller of TCU.

While Kamara remains the focus of the Saints offense, the uncertainty about his short-term future is likely going to be enough for his stock to fall significantly until his case is resolved. Even if there is a positive outcome, there will be concerns about any potential future infraction outside the game or if league protocol will result in a stiffer penalty.

Fantasy football outlook

Kamara is currently in limbo. There is no guarantee of anything at the moment. He could end up back in Saints camp exonerated, could be facing an NFL suspension, or end up in jail. That’s rarely part of a player’s fantasy draft profile.

Kamara was an extremely effective dual threat in the Drew Brees era, because he was used more as a receiver than strictly as a runner. Over the last two seasons, he has had the most rushing attempts per game of his career, but the fewest receptions and total yards per game. After scoring 21 touchdowns in 15 games in 2020 (Brees’ last season), he has tallied just 11 touchdowns over the past 28 games.

A player who should be a mid- to high-end RB2 in most rankings if not for the concerns, the questions on his future have him ranked at or near the bottom of the RB3 tier in ADP. He has more talent than that, but until his legal situation is definitively settled, it may be best to avoid him, unless he becomes available for next to no fantasy investment.

We’ll revisit the situation once more is known on the legal front.

Lions land RB David Montgomery, spelling the end of Jamaal Williams’ stay

The Lions replaced one free-agent rusher with another, and fantasy football owners may not even notice.

Free-agent running back David Montgomery agreed to terms on a three-year, $18 million deal with the Detroit Lions that will keep him in the NFC North. The move puts an end to Jamaal Williams‘ stint with the Lions as he’s also a free agent and will not be retained.

Montgomery is versatile enough to chip in on third downs as a receiving outlet when called upon, but he should defer to D’Andre Swift in those situations more often than not. His bread will be buttered on early downs as a grinder who will be run into the dirt if head coach Dan Campbell has his way. His role is clearly defined, modeled after the Sean Payton-era one-two punch in New Orleans between Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Hint: He’s no AK41.

The Lions sport one of the best run-blocking lines in football, and Detroit’s defense is on the rise, which allows them to lean more on the ground game. Quarterback Jared Goff is a competent passer who is at his best when he can rely on convincing play-action passing.

The man Montgomery is replacing scored a team-record and NFL-best 17 touchdowns a season ago. Such a lofty target shouldn’t be in sight this year, though sneaking into the end zone in the neighborhood of a dozen times isn’t out of the question.

Fantasy football PPR live draft review

A second PPR draft in mid-May showed a few different patterns emerge.

Much like with our May edition of the Mock Draft Series, out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.

The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks (we didn’t write up our final four), here are a few observations from an 18-round, 12-team, PPR draft.

This group was hyper-aggressive with selecting wide receivers early in the first round, especially atop the draft. Four of the first seven selections were wideouts, including Cooper Kupp going No. 3 overall. Detroit running back D’Andre Swift going 12th was the only thing close to a surprise in the opening round. Three tight ends and six receivers went in the second round. The rest were running backs.
The first QB came off the board was Josh Allen was taken with the fifth selection of Round 3, which is the earliest any quarterback has gone in the first three drafts of this series. Justin Herbert went with the final pick in Round 6, followed two spots later by Patrick Mahomes. Only Lamar Jackson (Pick 8:09) would go over the next 24 choices.
In the first 100 picks, 5 QBs, 42 RBs, 44 WRs and 9 TEs were taken. During the PPR draft a week prior, we watched 6 QBs, 39 RBs, 45 WRs and 10 tight ends.

Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:

1st: 8 RBs, 4 WRs
2nd: 3 RBs, 6 WRs, 3 TEs
3rd: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs
4th: 6 RBs, 6 WRs
5th: 3 RBs, 8 WRs, 1 TE
6th: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE
7th: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 6 WRs
8th: 1 QB, 6 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 TE
9th: 5 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 3 TEs
10th: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE

My team

We were asked to write 35 words per pick to give a little insight as to our draft thoughts:

1:02) RB Austin Ekeler, Las Angeles Chargers: It came down to Derrick Henry being dominant one more time, Cooper Kupp as the safest pick here, or Ekeler remaining healthy. I was most concerned about not having a strong enough RB1 if I chose the wideout.

2:11) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Knowing the drafter at the turn had an elite RB and presuming WR-WR was in play, I went with Evans before another back. It played out as expected. Evans and Keenan Allen were the best remaining WR1s.

3:02) RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns: I hoped Chubb would survive the turn, and my Round 2 decision paid off. Injuries and time-sharing concerns are real, but Chubb is a TD machine and gives me a legit RB1 as my second back.

4:11) WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders: The debate was McLaurin and Courtland Sutton, who went with the very next pick. McLaurin has proven to be mostly QB-proof and makes for a quality WR2, even with Carson Wentz under center.

5:02) RB Damien Harris, New England Patriots: Three drafts, three Harris selections … it’s not that I’m necessarily a huge fan, but he’s a tremendous RB3. Thanks to Harris’ scoring prowess, none of the remaining backs were definitively better options at this stage.

6:11) WR DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals: A strong draft start afforded this gamble. Hopkins will miss six games, sure, but he’s a borderline WR1 lock in PPR upon his return. It’s not too often you can plug that kind of talent into your WR3 slot.

7:02) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Securing my third-ranked passer in Round 7 ahead of the long end of my wait, Mahomes was tough to let pass. While the WR talent regressed, he makes players around him better and will be fine.

8:11) WR Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers: Lazard may emerge as the top fantasy receiver in Green Bay after the Davante Adams trade. It’s worth a late-round wager to find out. At a minimum, he’s adequate depth for me while Hopkins is out.

9:02) TE Austin Hooper, Tennessee Titans: I’m much higher on Hooper’s rebound than most, and since I tend to wait on TEs, this one was a no-brainer. Tennessee’s WR situation is shaky, at best, and Hooper is an ideal fit for the system.

10:11) WR Kenny Golladay, New York Giants: Can the talented Golladay stay on the field? His quarterback situation could hold him back, but I’m willing to bank on Brian Daboll getting the most out of Daniel Jones. The rest is up to Golladay.

11:02) RB Marlon Mack, Houston Texans: I should’ve taken Tyler Allgeier over Golladay. The rookie went at the turn, forcing a pivot to Mack. A whole lotta “meh,” but he has a chance, which is all one can ask for this late.

12:11) TE Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears: Kmet is one of my favorites for a breakout season, and the third-year tight end covers my backside if the Hooper gamble doesn’t pan out. There’s legit TE1 potential in Chicago’s new offense.

13:02) RB Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions: Since the Mack pick could go either way, a safe, reliable veteran was the target, and Williams fits the bill. Plus, D’Andre Swift has proven to be less than a model of health thus far.

14:11) WR Jamison Crowder, Buffalo Bills: In three years with Buffalo, Cole Beasley was a PPR powerhouse out of the slot, and Crowder should have little trouble assuming the role in this pass-heavy system. He provides excellent value-to-upside ratio.

Rounding out the draft: Arizona Cardinals RB Keaontay Ingram (Round 15), PK Daniel Carlson (Round 16), QB Jameis Winston (Round 17) and Miami Dolphins defense/special teams (Round 18).