Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 11
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 3-7-0
All-time record: 21-38-3 (36.3%)
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
Well, look at that … consecutive “wins” and a resounding one last week with the choice of Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith. Hopefully, this slight momentum builds and leads to a third straight week of successful prognostication!
Like Smith, this week’s selection is a universally owned receiver whose preseason expectations have overshadowed his actual production.
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley vs. Tennessee Titans
The former Atlanta Falcons receiver has been all over the map in 2023, and the last four games have seen Ridley post three lines with 26 offensive yards being his ceiling; a six-catch, 83-yarder headlines that stretch. He hasn’t scored since Week 4.
It hasn’t been all bad for Ridley in his first year as a Jaguar. He has four games with at least 11.8 PPR returns, and two of those outings were north of 20 points. Six of his nine appearances have seen at least seven targets sent Ridley’s way. His biggest issue has been wild inconsistency. The peaks and valleys have been dramatic, and when the vet has been bad, we’re talking four games with seven or fewer points. Some of the struggles can be pinned on erratic quarterback play, but difficult matchups have factored in a substantial manner.
The matchup is 14.9% easier to exploit than the league average on the year and 11.3% softer in the last five weeks. Tennessee having faced a pair of suspect passing games along the way (IND, ATL) has kept this from being an even stronger matchup rating.
There’s a quality opportunity to get on track this week vs. a Tennessee unit that has permitted wide receivers to average the 13th-most catches and 12th-most yards per game since Week 5 ended. A dozen squads have ceded TDs at a higher clip over that period. On the year, eight receivers have gone for at least 16 PPR points against the Titans, and Ridley should make it nine.
My projection: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 79 yards, 1 TD (20.9 PPR points)