Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 4
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 0-3-0
All-time record: 18-34-3
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
Not much to say about last week’s utter failure of a pick in Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams. It’s not that he played poorly, but the Miami Dolphins obliterated their opponent, which led to an abandonment of the running game. I’m a little surprised he didn’t see more targets, but all things Broncos stunk out loud.
TE Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Going back to the well against Miami … hopefully there’s something in the bucket when it reaches the surface this week. Tight end is one of the most volatile positions in fantasy, and Knox is overly reliant on finding the end zone. That’s a combination for an extra-risky recommendation, so this won’t be for the faint of heart.
Buffalo has sent only 11 total targets Knox’s direction in 2023. He has a mere seven catches and no more than 25 yards in any game, scoring once in Week 2. Knox current sits one target shy of rookie Dalton Kincaid, the team’s future at the position, but the rookie has just 9.3 PPR points as his high-water mark through three contests. The veteran has twice as many targets in the red zone, which is where Knox scored his lone TD.
Miami has given up the seventh-most fantasy points to the position in ’23, and that includes allowing 1.1 to all three Denver TEs last weekend. The majority of positional success has come from a pair of touchdowns in the first two games (Donald Parham and Hunter Henry), though we saw Mike Gesicki nab five passes for 33 yards in Week 2 for 19.3 percent of the total fantasy success.
While volume usually isn’t Knox’s game, he managed to post a 6-98-1 line in the 2022 Week 15 meeting, though his previous Week 3 trip to Miami was good for a lowly 6.5 points in PPR. These divisional foes played three times last season, including the Wild Card meeting in which Knox’s number was dialed five times, leading to 11 PPR points on a 3-20-1 day.
This one comes down to game script and the Dolphins having to stop Buffalo’s receiving corps. The Miami offense from last week would force the Bills into an all-hands-on-deck script. That’s not a reliable outlook given the strength of the Buffalo defense, and gamers considering Knox should be solely focused on a situational touchdown. He’s useless without one. Consider playing him only if you have someone like Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz, Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, or Pat Freiermuth as your drafted TE1.
My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 44 yards, 1 TD (15.4 PPR points)