Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 5
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 0-4-0
All-time record: 18-35-3
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
There are no two ways around this being by far the worst start to — as well as among the longest losing streaks of — any year I’ve been doing this series. The entire concept is ripe for a low success rate, but 0-4 is unacceptable in any context.
Last week’s featured failure was Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox vs. Miami Dolphins, marking consecutive games in which I was so flatly wrong about Miami that my recommendations flopped because of the incorrect view of game flow. In Week 3, Javonte Williams was my pick, but I never saw Miami jumping out to a 49-13 lead through three quarters, which eliminated Williams from the game plan. Last week, I didn’t foresee Miami being down big most of the way, thus meaning Buffalo didn’t need to pass excessively.
Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert at Los Angeles Rams
For Week 5’s recommendation, statistical data is taking a passenger seat to situational football and extenuating circumstances. Goedert, a once-coveted fantasy option, has fallen on hard times. He has scored a mere touchdown in his last 10 appearances and reached double-digit PPR points in just 30 percent of those games and only 22.2 percent of the time when he didn’t find the end zone.
Philadelphia has so many weapons that he can get lost in the mix, and the team’s vertical success also detracts from Goedert’s number of opportunities in the red zone given that the team is tied for fourth at generating passing plays over 25 yards.
Los Angeles has allowed the 20th-most TE receptions but the sixth-highest scoring frequency in 2023, and this profiles as a top-10 matchup in both primary scoring systems. The Rams have given up only the 12th-most yards per attempt, and this is the sixth-best defense at limiting yardage after the catch. Just six teams have been weaker at allowing touchdowns in the red zone. Two Indianapolis Colts tight ends reached double figures in PPR last week, and two of the three previous matchups were against offenses that don’t involve the position much.
While there are some notable stats working in Goedert’s favor, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni said the team still intends to feed him on offense.
“Trust me – I promise you he’s still part of the plan of us wanting to get him the football. We need to get him the football,” Sirianni said. “Sometimes there’s a dry spell in there, too, with what’s kind of going on right now. There are some different things that defenses are concerned of with Dallas that has affected some of the touches he’s gotten. It’s a bit of both. He is a great player. We rely on him.”
In Week 5, the tight ends on bye aren’t serious fantasy factors, making it tougher to rely on the struggling veteran. Fortunately, most people who drafted Goedert did so with the intention of him being a weekly starter. Tough it out one more time if you’ve been considering replacement options in recent weeks.
My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 61 yards, 1 TD (17.1 PPR points)