Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 10
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 2-7-0
All-time record: 20-38-3 (32.8%)
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
Last week’s selection of New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry was a risky proposition, but he came through to exceed the threshold and return close enough to the projected line to be considered a “win” for this article’s purposes.
This week, we train our focus on a floundering quarterback whose contributions to fantasy teams has been sorely lacking, but some fortunate gamers get a massive break in a week in which the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Jalen Hurts are on bye.
Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith vs. Washington Commanders
Following his breakout 2022 season, Smith has finished no better than QB8 in any contest this year, which came way back in Week 2. He has only three appearances with 20 or more fantasy points along the way, and managers who drafted him as a starter have suffered through no touchdowns in two of Smith’s last four outings.
The Seahawks have the necessary weapons to get the job done, and running back Kenneth Walker III (chest) is banged up. He has been on the injury report the last two weeks with various ailments, including a minor calf issue entering Week 8. Plus, Washington is respectable against running backs, and this defense is vastly weaker at slowing wide receivers.
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Smith should have ample time to throw, even though his line has given up the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL. Washington traded away its two most talented pass rushers, and this defense has applied pressure at the 12th-lowest rate in 2023.
The trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (hip) easily have the upper hand vs. a feeble secondary, particularly down the field as this group has faced the third-highest average depth per target. Teams don’t take that many deep shots without an obvious reward. With vertical specialists in Metcalf and JSN, Washington could give up several huge plays, even if Smith has a low-volume day.
Quarterbacks have posted at least 279 yards and two touchdowns in five of the last six contests against the Commanders, and this matchup is 32.3% better than the league average in that time frame. On the season, the matchup is even more favorable for Smith. Through nine showings, Washington has permitted 19 touchdown passes (T-1st) and the third-most fantasy points, on average. One in 16.7 attempts has found the end zone, and one in 10.4 completions went for six points. QBs have averaged 264.9 aerial yards over the course of 2023.
Smith has more or less been a fantasy anchor this year but is in a prime situation to exploit a plus matchup.
My projection: 23-of-35 attempts for 286 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 rushes for 6 yards (22.9 fantasy points)