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Week 13 CFP Bubble Watch: Georgia’s resume is legit

With just three weeks left in the college football season, let’s look at the resumes for those still in College Football Playoff contention.

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. If you’ve been reading through my Eliminator articles, you’d know that I still count 12 teams with a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. (And if you haven’t been reading them, please feel free to go back to them.)

Now that teams have played enough games, we can get a real look at every team’s resume. So, for the 12 teams still alive, I am going to present all of the resumes to you. We’re going to look at every resume so that we can compare what positives and negatives each team has. It’s the easiest and best way to understand what each team is bringing to the table in the College Football Playoff discussion.

How this works

Let’s go over what I’m looking at and why.

Quality of wins

For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between No. 24 and No. 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (CFP, AP, or Amway Coaches), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. Moreover, it just makes sense. The committee is aware of who is a good team and what counts as a win of decent quality, even if that team didn’t quite make it into the rankings.

I also split up every game each team has played into different groups. The groupings are important. First of all, I focus on Top 10 and Top 25 wins. These are, obviously, the quality wins. Next, I’m looking for teams in the Top 40. These are solid wins and deserve respect. The next group is teams somewhere between 41st and 80th in FBS. These are mediocre teams–they are games that any Playoff contender should win, but could in theory lose on an off day. Everyone outside the Top 80 is a complete cupcake game, and should be valued as a negative. To determine where each team is and who is outside the Top 80, I use a collection of computer rankings that focus on different things (e.g. Sagarin and Anderson) to get broad perspectives on who is a cupcake and who isn’t.

The selection committee has consistently mentioned “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric over the past few years, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one–there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Buffalo or Western Kentucky)–the committee cares about it, so we have to as well.

Offensive and defensive performance

I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.
Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.

SOS range

The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, especially as different rankings favor different things. They do, however, give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is. Keep in mind, it’s still a little early in the season, so the different SOS methodologies could bring up radically different results. Ranges could still be wide in some cases, but in general they should narrow over the next few weeks.

Next… Teams that control their own destinies

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Ohio State second most dominant team of 21st Century according to USA TODAY’s Paul Myerberg

USA TODAY’s Paul Myerberg selected the Ohio State football program as the 2nd most dominant team of the 21st Century.

Several news outlets are doing pieces on some of the most iconic teams, players, and moments in the history of college football during this 150 year anniversary of the sport, and USA TODAY is no different. It has rolled out several pieces, and the latest is a video segment by national writer Paul Myerberg.

He discusses the top three most dominant teams of college football during the 21st Century. For those math and historical wizards out there, that would mean from the year 2000 up until this year.

Of course Ohio State is in the running, and Myerberg labels the Buckeyes as the second most dominant team, just in front of the Clemson Tigers. Here’s what he says about OSU’s run.

“They’ve won two national championships since 2000 — one under Jim Tressel, one more recently under Urban Meyer. But every year since 2000, they’ve been good, at the baseline, good. Sometimes they’ve been great, they’ve been awesome. Every year though, unlike a lot of teams in the country, and a lot of other teams in contention to be the best team of this 21st Century — Ohio State, every year, pencil it in. Nine, ten, eleven, twelve wins.”

Of course you know what team Myerberg picked as the most dominant team of the Century, it’s none other than Alabama, and it’s hard to argue against.

You can click on the below yourself shared by the Twitter feed of USA TODAY Sports and listen to his rationale for picking all three.

.@PaulMyerberg on the most dominant college football teams of the 21st century. pic.twitter.com/WkQl1uSiLN

— USA TODAY Sports (@usatodaysports) November 19, 2019

CFB150: Top three programs of the 21st century

SportsPulse: USA TODAY Sports’ Paul Myerberg gives his opinion on which teams have stood out to be the most dominant during the 21st century.

Week 12 CFP Implications: Static at the top, chaos at the bottom

Looking at the national College Football Playoff picture after Week 12, a few things are becoming very clear. Let’s start at the top.

This past week, all 25 teams ranked by the CFP selection committee were in action. With so many games, a trend that has been slowly developing over the year came to full fruition.

We haven’t seen many upsets at the top of the game this year. And while we have seen some matchups of Top 15 teams–mostly involving Auburn or Michigan–we have yet to really see top teams get upset, or matchups between serious contenders. (Yes, we have had a few, most notably Alabama-LSU, but there have been far fewer than in most years.) That will change over the final few weeks of the season, whether due to scheduled matchups or conference championship games.

While there haven’t been many upsets at the top of the rankings. We’ve had plenty at this bottom. This past week, three of the committee’s teams ranked 19-25 lost, plus a pretty weak display from Cincinnati, for the second time in three weeks. Don’t be surprised if the committee drops the Bearcats a little after this performance.

What that leaves us with is essentially a two-tier ranking system. And while we can subdivide each tier further, the breakdown of the tiers will be very important.

The Top 17 teams are basically locked into those spots. LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Oregon, Utah, Minnesota, Penn State, Oklahoma, Florida, Auburn, Baylor, Wisconsin, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Iowa will be the Top 17 teams from here on out. A shocking upset could knock one of these teams out, sure, and Baylor could fall out on its own by losing two of its final three games (to Texas and then again in the Big 12 Championship Game). Other than that Baylor case, though (and assuming no one does something crazy like lose to Northwestern or an FCS team), these 17 teams will be ranked the rest of the way, no matter what, and will like be the Top 17 the rest of the way.

From 18 on down, though, is anybody’s guess. We could see AAC teams stay in, though they’ve been less impressive as the season has gone on. Also, Cincinnati and Memphis still have to face each other. Appalachian State and Boise State can stay ranked by winning out, but one more loss will end any rankings the rest of the way. Maybe SMU slides back in this week.

After that, though, what’s left? What teams are we looking at to be ranked in the back section of the Top 25? Pitt, Virginia, and/or Virginia Tech could slide in, though Pitt plays Virginia Tech this week, and Virginia faces Virginia Tech next week, so only one of those three, at most, will likely be ranked by season’s end. Are we looking at Iowa State, with as impressive a four-loss resume as we’ve seen in a while?

17 teams have basically locked up their year-end rankings, with two weeks left in the regular season. The other eight spots in the Top 25, though, are entirely up for grabs. Who does this help most? Quite clearly, the Pac 12.

Next… How this helps the Pac 12

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Wake Forest-Clemson odds: Tigers huge favorites in Death Valley

Previewing Saturday’s Wake Forest at Clemson college football matchup, with college football betting odds, picks and best bets

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The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-2, 3-2 ACC) and Clemson Tigers (10-0, 7-0) lock horns at Clemson Memorial Stadium in South Carolina at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. The Tigers look to avoid a hiccup against the Deacs as they hurtle toward another appearance in the College Football Playoff.

We analyze the Wake Forest-Clemson odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Wake Forest at Clemson: Three things you need to know

1. Wake Forest ranks 13th in the nation with 487.3 total yards per game, while checking in 11th in passing yards per game (314.1). However, the offense takes a huge hit with WR Sage Surratt (shoulder) ruled out for the season earlier this week. WR Scotty Washington (undisclosed), the team’s third leading receiver, is also out Saturday.

2. Clemson has scored 55 or more points in each of the past three outings, and 45 or more points in five consecutive outings.

3. The Tigers rank second in total yards (545.8) and fifth in points scored (45.3). Defensively they are fourth in total yards allowed (251.5), second in passing yards allowed (137.2) and third in points allowed (11.5).

Get some action on this game or others by placing a bet at BetMGM!

Wake Forest at Clemson: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:50 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Clemson 55, Wake Forest 17

Moneyline (ML)

There is no moneyline offered on this game with such a high spread.

Against the Spread (ATS)

CLEMSON (-34.5, -110) is in good shape at home laying less than five touchdowns. Wake Forest (+34.5, -110) was going to have a difficult time at full health, but missing its leading receiver, and third-best receiver, makes matters untenable.

Over/Under (O/U)

It wouldn’t be shocking to see Clemson take care of the OVER (60.5, -106) all by itself. While the loss of Surratt and Washington is worrisome to Wake’s potential to score points, the Demon Deacons should be able to get into double digits. Expect Clemson to pile up the points by halftime, perhaps with a total in the 40’s, then the defense letting up in the second half while Wake makes it look less embarrassing.

Get some action on this game or others, place a bet with BetMGM today. And for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Ohio State football rooting interests for week 12

Looking forward to Week 12 of the college football season, what should Ohio State fans root for in all of the games.

We’re back for another week of Rooting Interests. Remember, the goal of this exercise is to look at what will give the Buckeyes the best possible resume in case they lose a game. 13-0 Ohio State is a Playoff lock, so there isn’t much to root for there. But if the Buckeyes drop a game to Penn State, Michigan, or in the Big Ten Championship Game, what will best help the Buckeyes get in to the College Football Playoff.

The first game Buckeye fans should pay attention to is Friday night’s Conference-USA showdown between Marshall and Louisiana Tech. Two of Ohio State’s nonconference opponents (Miami of Ohio and Cincinnati) have already essentially wrapped up division titles. FAU has a decent chance of making it three-for-three, but Marshall needs to lose a game for that to happen. This game is Marshall’s most likely loss in the final three weeks.

On Saturday, there are a ton of important games. As always, Alabama losing wouldn’t hurt, though is obviously unlikely. And while usually upsets always help, Florida has the weakest resume of any SEC contender right now. So as long as Georgia can lose the SEC East, Florida winning is better. Then again, if Miami (Fl) wins its final two games, Florida’s resume could be on par with Georgia’s. And, of course, a Florida loss isn’t a bad outcome, especially if Georgia beats either Auburn or Texas A&M.

In the afternoon, root for Navy over Notre Dame. Not only does an Irish loss hurt Georgia’s resume, but Navy could be 10-1 and meet Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game. That would be a battle of Top 15 teams, and Cincinnati winning that would only make Ohio State look better. Speaking of Cincinnati, the Bearcats travel to face South Florida at 7 PM. Staying in the AAC in the afternoon, root for Memphis to beat Houston and keep its high ranking.

Moving over to ACC games, it’s always good to root for Clemson to lose. The Tigers, with a loss, should be ranked behind even a one-loss Ohio State team, so them losing to Wake Forest would be good. If they beat Wake Forest, though, pull for a blowout. The worst-case scenario would be Wake Forest being viewed as a more valuable win solely on the back of keeping it close against Clemson. Also, pull for Virginia Tech to fall to Georgia Tech. The Hokies could still be a decent opponent in the ACC Championship Game at 9-3, but a loss to Georgia Tech would erase that completely.

In the evening, don’t waste too much time on LSU at Ole Miss. The Tigers almost certainly won’t lose two games, and even if they do, they still have an incredible resume. LSU winning would help Ohio State by not making any of Alabama’s wins look more valuable.

There are pros and cons for both Baylor and Oklahoma winning. Baylor going undefeated is a bigger issue for Ohio State than 12-1 Oklahoma is, though, so you may as well root for the Sooners here. Either way, though, this game should be a close one, and preferably not a pretty one. Mistakes and turnovers winning the day makes both teams look bad, which is the goal here.

Two other 7:30 games matter, but in contradictory ways. Root for Georgia State to beat Appalachian State so that South Carolina looks worse. At the same time, though, root for South Carolina to beat Texas A&M–because Texas A&M not being a valuable win is more important than South Carolina being an even worse opponent. (Remember, Alabama beat South Carolina but Georgia lost to the Gamecocks.)

Later in the evening, Utah and Oregon losing don’t hurt. It’s better for Oregon to lose, though, for two reasons. First of all, Utah has a weaker overall resume than the Ducks. Secondly, especially if Oklahoma beats Baylor, remember that Oklahoma beat UCLA earlier in the season. Right now, the Sooners only have two decent wins (Texas and Iowa State). UCLA winning out–or at least upsetting Utah–would make Oklahoma look better. And speaking of Iowa State, root for the Cyclones to upset Texas. Not only would that help Iowa stay ranked (more on that in the next section), but it would take the luster off Oklahoma’s best win so far.

Next… Who to root for in Big Ten games

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Week 12 CFP Bubble Watch: What rankings don’t make sense?

Let’s start to look at the resumes of the 15 teams still alive in the Playoff discussion. Who deserves to be ranked higher or lower?

Welcome to the Bubble Watch. If you’ve been reading through my Eliminator articles, you’d know that I still count 15 teams with a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. (And if you haven’t been reading them, please feel free to go back to them.)

Now that teams have played enough games, we can get a real look at every team’s resume. So, for the 15 teams still alive, I am going to present all of the resumes to you. We’re going to look at every resume so that we can compare what positives and negatives each team has. It’s the easiest and best way to understand what each team is bringing to the table in the College Football Playoff discussion.