On the Bubble:
These teams will be shown in where they sit on the bubble. That fact is determined by the strength of the resume if the team in question wins out, not by where it is currently.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Oklahoma | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 25-70 | 3 | 8.4 (1) | 5.2 (37) |
It’s easy to understand why the committee doesn’t like Oklahoma. However, those proclaiming that Oklahoma is behind a 12-1 Pac 12 champion are overstating the case. The defense has decent numbers and stepped up this week, the SOS numbers are improving, and the Sooners could have four ranked wins (and five Top 40 wins) when all is said and done. That’s better than what Oregon and Utah are bringing to the table.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Oregon | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 6-0 | 1-0 | 20-55 | 3 | 6.4 (16) | 4.4 (9) |
The Pac 12 has two Top 40 teams, and Oregon has beaten both of them. The metrics here are strong, and the SOS is decent. Nothing over the next two weeks will move the needle much, but Oregon could very well end the season with no real cupcakes. The only cupcake in this resume is FCS No. 3 Montana. My rule is that all FCS teams count as 80+ no matter what, but Montana is likely right around the edge of that No. 80 range when compared to FBS teams. (Indeed, Sagarin has Montana at No. 81 overall when combining all FBS and FCS teams.)
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Utah | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 6-0 | 2-0 | 30-75 | 2 | 6.6 (11) | 4.3 (7) |
Utah has played two decent teams–USC and Washington–and the Utes split those games. Utah probably also should have lost to Washington. This is one of the weakest overall SOS profiles in the Pac 12, and it won’t get much better over the next two weeks (though BYU beating up on the weak half of its schedule helps a bit). Utah is winning games convincingly, and the metrics reflect that, but I’m looking at this resume and have zero idea why or how the Utes are ranked ahead of teams like Penn State or Minnesota. Why is this resume even ahead of Oklahoma’s?
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Alabama | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 15-70 | 2 | 7.7 (2) | 4.7 (19) |
This resume is ugly. The one decent win is over Texas A&M, which is counted as a ranked win due to appearing in the AP and Amway Coaches Polls. The only other team with a winning record that Alabama has beaten is Southern Miss. Duke has fallen into cupcake range with a 4-6 record against a weak schedule. Massey loves the Crimson Tide’s schedule, and the SOS range excluding Massey would be about 50-70. Alabama’s metrics aren’t anywhere near the usual dominant numbers. The Crimson Tide are getting some major benefit of the doubt for blowing out bad teams, and likely for the Alabama brand and recent success. If we’re judging this resume on resume alone, there’s not much here.