Week 12 CFP Bubble Watch: What rankings don’t make sense?

Let’s start to look at the resumes of the 15 teams still alive in the Playoff discussion. Who deserves to be ranked higher or lower?

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Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range Wins over 

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Wisconsin 0-1 2-0 0-0 1-1 4-0 15-30 3 5.9 (40) 3.8 (3)

The Badgers aren’t in a terrible position. The loss to Illinois looks more acceptable each week. They need help to win the Big Ten West, but Iowa beating Minnesota would be good for the resume anyway. If Wisconsin wins out and gets to the Big Ten Championship Game, the Badgers could have four ranked wins. That will be decent, though the win over Ohio State would have to be convincing–otherwise the Badgers (at 11-2) probably wouldn’t be able to even jump the Buckeyes.

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Florida 0-2 1-0 0-0 4-0 3-0 10-50 2 60 (36) 4.9 (28)

Florida has a decent enough resume, with a good win over Auburn and no bad losses. The wins are thin after that Auburn game, though, so Florida would need an SEC Championship Game win to add meat to the resume. Unfortunately, the Gators can only win the SEC East if Georgia loses its next two games, so their hopes rest entirely on Auburn and Texas A&M right now.

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Michigan 0-1 2-1 0-0 1-0 4-0 15-20 3 5.5 (73) 4.0 (4)

Michigan is in the same boat as Florida right now. This resume has decent wins, and could potentially add a solid win over Indiana plus a huge win over Ohio State. Unfortunately, with two losses that won’t be enough to reach the Playoff. Michigan needs to win the Big Ten–and the Wolverines can only reach the Big Ten Championship Game if either Ohio State or Penn State loses to Rutgers. (If Ohio State beats Rutgers this weekend, then Penn State would need to lose to both Indiana and Rutgers, but beat Ohio State.) That does not bode well for Michigan’s chances.