Tag: Cincinnati Reds betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (22-23) and Cincinnati Reds (20-24) close out a three-game NL Central series Sunday at 1:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Freddy Peralta is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 13.8 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 45 IP over 8 starts.

Peralta is thus far enjoying the finest season of his career. He is managing hard contact at a much-improved clip (26% hard contact in 2021). He has pitched 13 shutout frames over his last two starts.

RHP Luis Castillo is the projected starter for the Reds. He is 1-6 with a 7.44 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 42 1/3 IP over 9 starts.

Castillo has scuffled through the first month-and-a-half of the season. The veteran righty isn’t missing as many bats as he has in the past, but he has held hard contact in check. He has mostly been undone by rates around the margins (.391 batting average on balls in play, 54.3% of runners left on base, 18.9% rate of fly balls as home runs). Castillo owns a 3.36 career ERA in his home ballpark, and he’s facing a Milwaukee nine that struggles against right-handers.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+135) |  Reds +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Reds 5, Brewers 4

Money line (ML)

Cincinnati batters own an .833 OPS against Peralta, and there is enough play in the Castillo side and the Reds’ advantage in home/road and left/right splits to make for value on a REDS +105 play.

Cincinnati’s .830 home OPS ranks second in the league; only four teams have a better OPS against right-handed starters than the Reds’ .769 figure.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the run line. The game has enough lean on the Over to make a loftier score uninviting on the Reds RL play. Take the better value on the ML.

Over/Under (O/U)

Two weekend-spent bullpens and a warmed-up, breeze-out-to-center Great American Ballpark make for a lean on the OVER 8 (-115).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (21-22) roll into Great American Ball Park Thursday for the first of a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds (19-23) at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee lost both games of its interleague series at the Kansas City Royals and five of the past six games. The Brewers have lost three straight series.

Cincinnati got waxed Wednesday by the San Francisco Giants 19-4 and was swept in the four-game series. The Reds are just 3-7 in their past 10 games.

RHP Adrian Houser is on the hill for the Brewers. Houser is 3-4 with a 3.63 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 over eight starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-3, in 3 IP with 2 ER, 2 H, 5 BB and 3 K last Friday vs. the Atlanta Braves.
  • Career vs. the Reds: 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.34 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 across four starts and three relief appearances.
    • Vs. Reds on the current roster: 67 at-bats with a .343/.362/.701 slash line, 14/2 K/BB, 7 HR and 12 RBIs.

RHP Jeff Hoffman is the projected starter for the Reds. Hoffman is 2-3 with a 4.67 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 across eight starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 5 K in Cincinnati’s 6-5 win at the Colorado Rockies Sunday.
  • Career vs. the Brewers: 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA (10 IP, 3 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 over two starts.
    • Vs. Brewers on the current roster: 13 at-bats with a .308/.357/.385 slash line, 4/1 K/BB, 0 HR and 1 RBI.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Reds +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+135) | Reds +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Reds 7, Brewers 5

Money line (ML)

BET the REDS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because Cincinnati rakes Houser, and its bullpen is one of the worst in the league. So I don’t trust them to lockdown any game.

Both starters grade poorly in several advanced pitching metrics but Cincinnati’s lineup has drilled righties and has success vs. Houser.

For instance, hitters on Cincinnati’s roster have an absurd .432 wOBA, 8.52 FIP and .523 expected slugging percentage on 53 plate appearances vs. Houser.

Also, the Reds are sixth in wRC+, second in wOBA, third in OPS and 10th in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching whereas Milwaukee has the second-lowest wRC+, wOBA and OPS.

However, since Cincinnati’s bullpen is in the bottom-third of the Majors in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% I’m going to STICK WITH REDS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because of the aforementioned concerns with Cincinnati’s bullpen, and I’m generally going to stay away from run lines for teams with poor bullpens.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-110) for a half unit because both starters are in the 38th percentile or lower in hard-hit rate, exit velocity and expected wOBA.

Furthermore, Cincinnati’s bullpen troubles are carrying over from last year, but Milwaukee’s bullpen has regressed to somewhat of a weakness. The Brewers relievers are below average in xFIP, SIERA and hard-hit rate.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (24-16) and Cincinnati Reds (19-19) begin a four-game series Monday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Giants lead 2-1

Sunday: The Giants won at the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-1 to snap a two-game slide and split a four-game series. The Reds also split a four-game series on the road after rallying for a 7-6 victory at the Colorado Rockies.

RHP Logan Webb is projected to start for the Giants. He is 2-3 with a 4.74 ERA (38 IP, 20 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance this season.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, career-high 10 K in 4-2 home victory vs. Texas Rangers Tuesday
  • Career vs. Reds: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (1 IP, 0 ER), 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 1 relief appearance this season

RHP Sonny Gray is the Reds’ projected starter. The nine-year veteran is 0-2 with a 3.55 ERA (25 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 12.8 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 5 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K at Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday – Reds won 5-1
  • Career vs. Giants: 2-0, 3.00 ERA (18 IP, 6 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 3 starts

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Giants at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:03 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Reds -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-175) | Reds -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Giants 8, Reds 6

Money line (ML)

There’s great value in SAN FRANCISCO (+115). The Giants don’t have the best record in the National League because they’re mediocre.

As for the Reds, they’re pitching has been awful (see stats in O/U section below), and their offense continues to hit 3B Eugenio Suarez in the heart of the order with his .153 batting average.

Cincy was actually lucky to win at Colorado Sunday, scoring the tying run on a passed ball and the winning run on a wild pitch – both in the top of the ninth inning.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. San Francisco is the majors’ second-best team ATS, but at -175, the Giants’ +1.5 is not worth the risk … especially since we’re already invested with them on the money line.

ATS records: Giants 25-15 | Reds 14-24

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 8 (-105) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. The Reds have the best Over record in the majors.

It helps that their pitching staff totes a 4.83 ERA to rank 27th out of the 30 MLB teams, while the bullpen ranks 26th with a 5.02 ERA.

O/U records: Giants 19-20-1 | Reds 25-11-2

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JOHNNY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 39-44-2 10-15-1 -10.395
2020 MLB 80-59-1 39-21 +24.79
2021 (all sports) 142-129-3 59-56-1 +3.155
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (17-19) play the Colorado Rockies (15-24) in the third of their four-game series Saturday at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Rockies lead 2-0.

RHP Tyler Mahle is getting the start for the Reds. Mahle is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA (36 IP, 12 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 over 7 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 14-1, in 5 1/3 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 7 K Monday at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • Career vs. the Rockies: 0-1 with a 7.53 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 2.09 WHIP and 7.5 K/9 across 3 starts.
    • Vs. Rockies on the current roster: 42 at-bats with a .357/.386/.500 slash line, 8/2 K/BB, 0 HR and 5 RBIs.
    • Career at Coors Field: 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 2.36 WHIP and 5.8 K/9 over 2 starts.

RHP Jhoulys Chacin is the projected starter for the Rockies. Chacin is 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.78 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 5.1 BB/9 across 6 appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 3 1/3 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 0 K in Colorado’s 12-4 loss to the San Francisco Giants on May 4.
  • Career vs. the Reds: 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA (27 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.12 WHIP and 7.5 K/9 over 5 starts.
    • Vs. Reds on the current roster: 96 at-bats with a .260/.345/.458 slash line, 25/11 K/BB, 4 HR and 15 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Reds at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Rockies +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (-125) | Rockies +1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 11 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Rockies 9, Reds 7

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the ROCKIES (+150) for a tiny wager only because Colorado’s run line is a sharper wager and the Rockies have an edge in the pitching matchup today.

Furthermore, Colorado’s money line has a higher handle whereas Cincinnati has way more bets placed on its money line, which leads me to believe that the Rockies’ money is “sharp” and the “average Joe” is backing the Reds.

Chacin’s advanced pitching numbers vs. the Reds’ lineup is far more impressive than Mahle’s against the Rockies.

For instance, Chacin has a 23.3 strikeout rate, .256 expected wOBA and .291 expected slugging percentage vs. current Reds hitters while Mahle has a 17.1% strikeout rate, .364 expected wOBA and .473 expected slugging percentage vs. current Rockies hitters.

Also, the Reds relievers have the third-worst xFIP, fourth-worst SIERA and the second-worst left-on-base percentage.

Colorado’s bullpen ranks near Cincinnati’s in all those metrics, but if there isn’t a whole lot of difference between the two ‘pens and Mahle gets drilled by Colorado then the ROCKIES (+150) becomes juicier.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the ROCKIES +1.5 (+105) heavier than or instead of Colorado’s money line. We are still getting a plus-money payout here

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 11 (-105) for a one-third unit because I have no faith in either starter or bullpen, the Reds have gone Over in six of Mahle’s seven starts this season and Colorado has gone Over in eight of its last 10 home games.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (17-17) and Colorado Rockies (13-24) kick off a four-game series Thursday at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Luis Castillo is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 1-4 with a 6.42 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 33 2/3 IP over seven starts. Castillo hasn’t been his usual self in 2021, and has allowed 4 ER or more four times. Most of his ERA estimators aren’t great but are a couple runs below his actual ERA as he’s been hurt by a .357 BABIP and 54% LOB%.

RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez is the projected starting pitcher for the Rockies. He has made five starts and two relief appearances, and is 1-1 with a 5.97 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 4.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 28 2/3 IP. Gonzalez has been roughed up to the tune of 11 ER in 8 2/3 IP in his last two starts, both of which came on the road. He boasts a 4.89 career ERA in 13 games (nine starts) at Coors Field, along with a 7.1 K/9 and 1.4 HR/9.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Reds at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:34 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Rockies +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (-110) | Rockies +1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 11 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Reds 8, Rockies 5

Money line (ML)

Since joining the Rockies in 2019, Gonzalez has put up a dreadful 5.74 ERA across 111 1/3 IP. The team has lost four of his five starts so far this season. Cincinnati’s bats should enjoy a big game against him Thursday evening.

It’s tough to put too much faith in Castillo given his struggles in his first seven outings. But there’s no doubt he has been unlucky to this point and is clearly the better pitcher in this game. So, take the REDS -160.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Reds have the highest implied run total in the league. They could knock Gonzalez out of the game pretty early. Even if it’s a close game late, as the road team, they could still break it open like they did Wednesday at the Pittsburgh Pirates. Back the REDS -1.5 (-110).

Over/Under (O/U)

There has been an average of 10.3 runs per game scored in 21 contests at Coors Field this year. The Over is 6-2-1 in Cincinnati’s last nine road games and 6-2 in Colorado’s last eight at home.

With neither starter pitching doing very well, there should be plenty of scoring in this game. The total is a high one, but we’ll still lean OVER 11 (-110).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (17-17) and Colorado Rockies (13-24) kick off a four-game series Thursday at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Luis Castillo is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 1-4 with a 6.42 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 33 2/3 IP over seven starts. Castillo hasn’t been his usual self in 2021, and has allowed 4 ER or more four times. Most of his ERA estimators aren’t great but are a couple runs below his actual ERA as he’s been hurt by a .357 BABIP and 54% LOB%.

RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez is the projected starting pitcher for the Rockies. He has made five starts and two relief appearances, and is 1-1 with a 5.97 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 4.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 28 2/3 IP. Gonzalez has been roughed up to the tune of 11 ER in 8 2/3 IP in his last two starts, both of which came on the road. He boasts a 4.89 career ERA in 13 games (nine starts) at Coors Field, along with a 7.1 K/9 and 1.4 HR/9.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Reds at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:34 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Rockies +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (-110) | Rockies +1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 11 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Reds 8, Rockies 5

Money line (ML)

Since joining the Rockies in 2019, Gonzalez has put up a dreadful 5.74 ERA across 111 1/3 IP. The team has lost four of his five starts so far this season. Cincinnati’s bats should enjoy a big game against him Thursday evening.

It’s tough to put too much faith in Castillo given his struggles in his first seven outings. But there’s no doubt he has been unlucky to this point and is clearly the better pitcher in this game. So, take the REDS -160.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Reds have the highest implied run total in the league. They could knock Gonzalez out of the game pretty early. Even if it’s a close game late, as the road team, they could still break it open like they did Wednesday at the Pittsburgh Pirates. Back the REDS -1.5 (-110).

Over/Under (O/U)

There has been an average of 10.3 runs per game scored in 21 contests at Coors Field this year. The Over is 6-2-1 in Cincinnati’s last nine road games and 6-2 in Colorado’s last eight at home.

With neither starter pitching doing very well, there should be plenty of scoring in this game. The total is a high one, but we’ll still lean OVER 11 (-110).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (16-16) play the Pittsburgh Pirates (14-20) Tuesday at PNC Park in Game 2 of their three-game set. First pitch is at 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Pirates with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincinnati drilled Pittsburgh 14-1 Monday and has won all four meetings so far this season by a combined score of 44-9.

RHP Jeff Hoffman makes his seventh start for the Reds. He is 2-2 with a 4.39 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9.

  • Last outing: Loss in 2 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K last Tuesday against the Chicago White Sox.
  • Career vs. Pirates: 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA (8 IP, 9 ER), 2.88 WHIP and 5.6 K/9 across 2 starts.
    • vs. Pirates on the current roster: 19 at-bats with a .474/.524/.737 slash line and 1 HR.

RHP JT Brubaker gets the start for the Pirates. He is 2-2 with a 2.78 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 across 6 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 7 K in Pittsburgh’s 4-2 loss at the San Diego Padres Wednesday.
  • Career vs. Reds: 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.39 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 in 2 starts.
    • vs. Reds on the current roster: 34 at-bats with a .235/.333/.294 slash line.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Reds at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Pirates -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-200) | Pirates -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Pirates 5, Reds 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the PIRATES (-120) for 1 unit because bookmakers have the right team favored and the “sharp” money is with Pittsburgh while the public is rolling with a Cincinnati team expected to compete for the NL Central crown.

It’s considered a possibility this Pirates team could lose 100 games this season and doesn’t nearly have the talent or expectations of the Reds; however, the starting pitching matchup is lopsided with Hoffman being a fringe rotation guy and Brubaker looking like a legitimate top-end starter thus far.

Also, this is a “Pros vs. Joes” spot in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, more money has been wagered on Pittsburgh’s money line whereas more bets have been placed on Cincinnati.

Typically, the money column represents the “sharp” side and the bets placed column represents the “average Joe”. It’s generally wiser to follow the money rather than the crowd of people in sports betting.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the PIRATES -1.5 (+165) for a quarter unit because Pittsburgh’s run line payout is chunky enough to sprinkle on and Hoffman has terrible numbers against this Pirates team.

Also, since the beginning of last season, Pittsburgh has the second-best run line cover rate in divisional games.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8 (-115) for a quarter unit because the Pirates are 1-4 O/U this season in Brubaker starts and we have another “Pros vs. Joes” scenario in the market with the presumed “sharp” money on the Under and the “public money” on the Over.

My hesitancy with backing the Under is Cincinnati’s terrible bullpen combined with Hoffman’s splits against Pittsburgh and the Reds scored 11 or more runs in each of their last three games against the Pirates.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (14-15) travel in-state Friday for a three-game interleague series with the Cleveland Indians (17-13) at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Wade Miley is the projected starter for the Reds. He is 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA (27 IP, 8 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 through 5 starts.

One of Miley’s losses was against Cleveland April 18. He went 5 IP with 4 ER on 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K.

  • Last outing: Win in 5 IP with 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 3 K against the Chicago Cubs last Friday.
  • Career vs. Indians: 1-4 with a 4.95 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.76 WHIP and 5.7 K/9 across 8 starts.

RHP Zach Plesac is on the mound for the Indians. He is 2-3 with a 4.78 ERA (32 IP, 17 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 across 6 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 5 2/3 IP with 0 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 6 K at the Chicago White Sox Sunday.
  • Career vs. Reds: 0-2 with a 5.11 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 0.97 WHIP and 8.8 K/9 in 2 starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Reds at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Indians -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-165) | Indians -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Reds 6, Reds 4

Money line (ML)

I “like” Cincinnati because Miley is a little more locked in through the first five weeks of the season and the Reds benefit from the AL-DH rule more than the Indians.

For instance, Cincinnati’s lineup is top-5 vs. righties in several advanced hitting categories such as wRC+, wOBA (first), OPS (first) and home run to fly-ball rate.

Also, Statcast grades Miley in the 82nd percentile of hard-hit rate and 96th percentile in exit velocity while Plesac grades below the 50th percentile in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, K% and expected slugging percentage.

Since Cincinnati’s bullpen is awful and Cleveland’s is very good, the way I want to get money down on the Reds is in the First 5 Innings market.

Slight “LEAN” to the REDS (+120) for a quarter unit since their First 5 innings run line is a sharper wager.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the REDS +0.5 (-115) FIRST 5 INNINGS for three-fourths of a unit because of the aforementioned reasons and because Plesac is less effective on four days of rest.

Plesac is 7-7 with a 4.24 ERA on a four-day rest vs. a 3.31 ERA on five days’ rest and opposing hitters are batting 31 percentage points higher compared to five days rest for Plesac.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8 (-115) for a quarter unit if at all because I prefer the Cincinnati side more than the total but Miley has struggled against Cleveland throughout his career and earlier this season.

Additionally, the Indians could plate runs late vs. the Cincinnati bullpen that has the worst left-on-base percentage, and second-worst SIERA and xFIP.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (11-12) go for the three-game road sweep of the vaunted Los Angeles Dodgers (15-9) Wednesday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch will be thrown at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Reds won the first two games of this series by scores of 5-3 and 6-5.

Reds RHP Sonny Gray (0-1, 7.88 ERA) is scheduled for his third start of the season. He has thrown a total of just 8 innings with 12 hits and 5 walks allowed but with 12 strikeouts.

  • Has allowed 2 home runs on a 37.5% fly-ball rate but quality 33.3% hard-hit rate.
  • Needed 86 pitches to pitch just 3 2/3 innings in a loss to the St. Louis Cardinals Friday with 5 earned runs allowed on 6 hits and 3 walks.

Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw (3-2, 2.56 ERA) has a 0.95 WHIP and 1.1 BB/9 with 8.8 K/9 through 31 2/3 innings spanning 5 starts.

  • Has gone at least 6 full innings in each of his last four starts after a rough season debut at the Colorado Rockies on Opening Day.
  • Gave up 3 runs over 7 innings in a 6-1 Dodgers loss to the San Diego Padres Friday but struck out 7 with a lone walk and needed just 91 pitches.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Reds at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:57 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Dodgers -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-115) | Dodgers -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Dodgers 4, Reds 1

Money line (ML)

The Dodgers (-200) should get on the board in the finale of this three-game set after blowing a 5-3 lead in the top half of the 7th inning Tuesday.

Kershaw has a major edge over the struggling Gray in the starting pitching matchup, and L.A., used just three relievers Tuesday with the Reds using five.

DODGERS (-190) on the 1st 5 innings line is playable, but the better value lies on the spread.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Cincinnati has a team OPS of just .702 against left-handed pitchers while Los Angeles is second (to the Reds) with a .787 rate against righties.

The Dodgers also have a second-ranked 12.1% walk rate in the righty split and will be able to take advantage of Gray’s early-season control issues.

DODGERS -1.5 (-105) is the easy play as the champs end a three-game slide with a win by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

The first two games of this series played to the Over but pivot to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for the finale.

Each of Kershaw’s last four starts finished with 7 or fewer runs scored by the two teams. He tossed 6 scoreless frames in two of those outings and the bullpen completed the shutout both times.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (10-12) and Los Angeles Dodgers (15-8) play Game 2 of their three-game set Tuesday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Reds upset the Dodgers in Monday’s opener behind a 5-3 win in 10 innings. Cincinnati, which was a +164 underdog, snapped a 7-game losing streak with the victory, while Los Angeles suffered a second consecutive loss.

Season series: Reds 1-0

Cincinnati RHP Jeff Hoffman is Tuesday’s projected starter. He is 2-1 with a 2.66 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 4 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 14-11 home loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday
  • Career vs. Dodgers: 1-0, 6.50 ERA (18 IP, 13 ER), 1.94 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 in 2 starts and 5 relief appearances – all with the Colorado Rockies

RHP Walker Buehler is slated to start for the L.A. He is 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA (25 IP, 6 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 0.4 BB/9 in 4 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 3-2 home loss vs. San Diego Padres Thursday
  • Career vs. Reds: 1-2, 1.47 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.87 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in 3 starts

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Reds at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:51 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Dodgers -225 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-110) | Dodgers -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Dodgers 7, Reds 2

Money line (ML)

PASS. The Dodgers’ -225 price is too expensive.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

LOS ANGELES -1.5 (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

Last season, the Dodgers scored against Hoffman each of the three times they faced the right-hander. Hoffman, who was with the Rockies, was pounded for 11 hits and 5 runs in a combined 4 innings in those three outings for an 11.25 ERA. He didn’t walk any Dodgers but struck out just one.

In the two outings Buehler faced the Reds in 2019 – Cincy and L.A. didn’t meet last season – he allowed just 1 run in 12 1/3 innings for a 0.73 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP.

ATS records: Reds 9-13 | Dodgers 11-12

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 8 (-105) is worth a HALF-UNIT bet. With Hoffman starting and a Reds bullpen ERA of 5.21 that ranks 14th in the NL, the Dodgers could hit the Over by themselves. Plus, the Over is 4-0 in Hoffman’s 4 starts.

Also of note, through 11 games at Dodger Stadium this season, L.A. is averaging 4.5 runs per game and allowing 3.5 runs per game.

O/U records: Reds 15-6-1 | Dodgers 10-13

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 29-23-1 8-5-1 +7.2425
2021 (all sports) 132-108-2 57-46-1 +20.7925
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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