The Cincinnati Reds (16-16) play the Pittsburgh Pirates (14-20) Tuesday at PNC Park in Game 2 of their three-game set. First pitch is at 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Pirates with MLB picks and predictions.
Cincinnati drilled Pittsburgh 14-1 Monday and has won all four meetings so far this season by a combined score of 44-9.
RHP Jeff Hoffman makes his seventh start for the Reds. He is 2-2 with a 4.39 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9.
- Last outing: Loss in 2 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K last Tuesday against the Chicago White Sox.
- Career vs. Pirates: 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA (8 IP, 9 ER), 2.88 WHIP and 5.6 K/9 across 2 starts.
- vs. Pirates on the current roster: 19 at-bats with a .474/.524/.737 slash line and 1 HR.
RHP JT Brubaker gets the start for the Pirates. He is 2-2 with a 2.78 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 across 6 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 7 K in Pittsburgh’s 4-2 loss at the San Diego Padres Wednesday.
- Career vs. Reds: 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.39 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 in 2 starts.
- vs. Reds on the current roster: 34 at-bats with a .235/.333/.294 slash line.
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Reds at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Pirates -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-200) | Pirates -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Pirates 5, Reds 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the PIRATES (-120) for 1 unit because bookmakers have the right team favored and the “sharp” money is with Pittsburgh while the public is rolling with a Cincinnati team expected to compete for the NL Central crown.
It’s considered a possibility this Pirates team could lose 100 games this season and doesn’t nearly have the talent or expectations of the Reds; however, the starting pitching matchup is lopsided with Hoffman being a fringe rotation guy and Brubaker looking like a legitimate top-end starter thus far.
Also, this is a “Pros vs. Joes” spot in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, more money has been wagered on Pittsburgh’s money line whereas more bets have been placed on Cincinnati.
Typically, the money column represents the “sharp” side and the bets placed column represents the “average Joe”. It’s generally wiser to follow the money rather than the crowd of people in sports betting.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the PIRATES -1.5 (+165) for a quarter unit because Pittsburgh’s run line payout is chunky enough to sprinkle on and Hoffman has terrible numbers against this Pirates team.
Also, since the beginning of last season, Pittsburgh has the second-best run line cover rate in divisional games.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8 (-115) for a quarter unit because the Pirates are 1-4 O/U this season in Brubaker starts and we have another “Pros vs. Joes” scenario in the market with the presumed “sharp” money on the Under and the “public money” on the Over.
My hesitancy with backing the Under is Cincinnati’s terrible bullpen combined with Hoffman’s splits against Pittsburgh and the Reds scored 11 or more runs in each of their last three games against the Pirates.
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