Tag: Cincinnati Reds betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (45-41) and Milwaukee Brewers (52-36) close the first half of the season with a four-game series Thursday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 5-4

Cincinnati rebounded with a 5-2 victory at the Kansas City Royals Thursday after blowing a 5-run lead in a 7-6 walk-off loss Wednesday. The Reds took 2 of 3 at K.C. and have won 6 of their last 7.

Milwaukee split a doubleheader at the New York Mets Thursday prevailing 5-0 in the nightcap. The Brewers lost the series 2-1 and have dropped 3 of 4 after running off 11 consecutive victories to build a nice lead atop the NL Central Division.

RHP Tyler Mahle is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds in the series opener. He is 7-3 with a 3.63 ERA (89 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 17 starts this season.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 R, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 3-2 home win vs. Chicago Cubs Saturday
  • 2021 vs. Brewers: 1-0 in 1 road start, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 12 K in 2-1 victory June 16
  • Career vs. Brewers: 1-2, 5.04 ERA (25 IP, 14 ER), 1.60 WHIP, 14.0 K/9 in 5 starts

RHP Adrian Houser is expected to start for the Brew Crew. He is 5-5 with a 3.94 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 15 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-2 victory at Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
  • 2021 vs. Reds: 1-1, 6.75 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 10 H, 7 BB, 8 K in 2 starts
  • Career vs. Reds: 1-3, 5.97 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 6 starts and 3 bullpen outings

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Reds at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+155) | Brewers +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Brewers 3, Reds 2

Money line (ML)

MILWAUKEE (-115) is the way to go. The Brewers will look to avenge a 3-game sweep by the visiting Reds June 14-16.

While the Reds have the better starting pitcher, their bullpen’s 5.19 ERA ranks 29th (out of 30 teams) in the majors. The Brewers are 10th at 3.82.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. Milwaukee owns the second-best ATS record in the NL, but the +1.5 (-190) price is too expensive.

Let’s just ride with the Brewers ML play.

ATS records: Reds 39-47 | Brewers 49-39

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 7.5 (+100) is worth a QUARTER-UNIT wager.

While the Reds are one of the better Over teams in the league, they’re 1-6 O/U in their last 7 games and 3-11 O/U in their last 14.

The O/U is 4-4-1 in the 9 head-to-head meetings this season.

O/U records: Reds 46-37-3 | Brewers 42-41-4

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (44-41) and Kansas City Royals (36-49) clash in an interleague series finale on Wednesday. The central division crossover matinee at Kauffman Stadium is set for a 2:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Sonny Gray is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. Gray is 1-4 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, and 3.4 BB/9 in 55 IP over 11 starts.

He faces the Royals in what will be his second start off the IL (groin). Gray was solid in an 86-pitch July 2 return against the Chicago Cubs as he allowed a run on five hits and a walk while fanning eight in five innings. Current K.C. batters own a .594 OPS, .056 isolated power against him.

RHP Brady Singer is the projected starting pitcher for the Royals. He is 3-6 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, and 4.0 BB/9 in 79 2/3 IP over 17 starts.

Singer has had most of his walk-and-home run-hiccups on the road. He owns a 4.33 ERA at Kauffman Stadium this season.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Reds at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Royals +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+105) | Royals +1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Reds 6, Royals 4

Money line (ML)

The two teams split the first two games on the series, but the Reds are 20-12 since June 3.

The Royals are just 7-23 over their last 29 games.

For this contest, peg the true odds as being bracketed by these ML prices: PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Kansas City bullpen owns a 5.60 ERA over the last month. Gray owns the Royals.

With a slight lean on the Over, TAKE THE REDS -1.5 (+105).

Over/Under (O/U)

Two second-division bullpens and one scuffling of late, Gray in a second turn back off a layoff and a breeze-out afternoon in K.C.: BACK THE OVER  9.5 (-105) on a small-to-moderate lean.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (43-40) and Kansas City Royals (35-48) open a three-game interleague set Monday with an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Kauffman Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Vladimir Gutierrez is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 3-3 with a 4.93 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, and 4.5 BB/9 in 38 1/3 IP over 7 starts.

The Reds rookie is coming off an awful outing Wednesday against San Diego. Gutierrez yielded 3 home runs, 3 walks and 6 hits leading to 6 ER in 4 1/3 IP.

LHP Mike Minor is the projected starting pitcher for the Royals. He is 6-6 with a 5.33 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 in 96 1/3 IP over 17 starts.

Minor carried a respectable 4.48 ERA into a June 25 start against the Texas Rangers but has allowed 14 ER across 10 IP in two starts since.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Reds at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:17 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Royals -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-185) | Royals -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Royals 7, Reds 4

Money line (ML)

Cincinnati swept the Cubs over the weekend and totes a four-game win streak into this series. The Reds are 19-11 since June 3.

Kansas City took 2-of-3 from the Twins over the weekend. The Royals had lost nine in a row before their Friday win over Minnesota and are just 6-22 over their last 28 games.

With the Reds being on the road after an 11-game home stand and with Minor having a solid history in effective bounce-backs after bad two clunkers in a row, the Royals are the value play. But SKIP THE MONEY LINE and leverage the plus money against the run-and-a-half.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Kansas City offense has been a near-average unit the last few weeks posting a .720 OPS since June 14. The Cincinnati attack is not as potent on the road (.685 OPS) or against southpaws (.673 OPS) as it is at home or against righties.

On a warm night in a high-total contest TAKE THE ROYALS -1.5 (+150).

Over/Under (O/U)

A forecast of 86 degrees at first pitch and with an outward-blowing breeze and with two second-division bullpens, BACK THE OVER 10 (-110) on a small-to-moderate lean.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (42-41) meet the Cincinnati Reds (42-40) Sunday in their three-game series finale at Great American Ball Park for a 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincinnati has edged out Chicago by one run in each of the first two games of the series.

Season series: Reds lead 5-3.

RHP Kyle Hendricks makes his 17th start for the Cubs. Hendricks is 10-4 with a 3.98 ERA (92 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Chicago’s 14-4 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Monday.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster: 172 at-bats with a .302/.383/.506 slash line, 44/22 K/BB, 8 HR and 24 RBIs.

LHP Wade Miley is Cincinnati’s projected starter. Miley is 6-4 with a 3.09 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 over 14 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 7 K in Cincinnati’s 12-4 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies Monday.
  • Miley picked up a win April 30 against the Reds, 8-6, with a stat line of 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
  • vs. Cubs on the current roster: 118 at-bats with a .212/.299/.364 slash line, 26/10 K/BB, 2 HR and 15 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Cubs at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:37 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-185) | Reds -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Reds 9, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

GIMME the REDS (-125) for 1 unit to fade Hendricks who has struggled in recent outings against Cincinnati and because the Cubs have lost eight straight games.

For instance, Hendricks has lost three straight starts vs. the Reds (all in Cincinnati) and has an 8.28 ERA in his last five starts against the Reds with nine home runs allowed.

Furthermore, not only are Miley’s basic numbers against the Cubs better than Hendricks’ vs. the Reds but so are Miley’s pitching peripherals.

Miley has a 3.49 FIP with a .285 expected wOBA, .322 expected slugging percentage and a 2.5° launch angle vs. active Cincinnati batters.

While Hendricks has a 5.33 FIP with a .335 expected wOBA, .419 expected slugging percentage and a 15.2° launch angle against current Chicago hitters.

Lastly, according to Pregame.com, at the time of writing more than 80% of the money is on Chicago’s money line because, in my opinion, the Cubs are more popular and Hendricks is leading the majors in wins.

However, the Reds are playing much better baseball since the start of last month and it’s typically profitable in sports betting to fade lopsided betting markets.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the REDS -1.5 (+150) for a quarter unit because in Hendricks’ last three starts vs. Cincinnati the Reds have outscored the Cubs 28-13 and have won by two or more runs in two of those meetings.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the OVER 9.5 (-115) for 1 unit as another “contrarian play” against a majority of the market that is betting the Under because of too much “recency bias”.

Sure, the first two Cubs-Reds games in this series went well Under the total, but these teams have a combined 20-10 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

Moreover, Chicago has gone Over in Hendricks’ last six starts against divisional foes and Cincinnati has gone Over in Miley’s previous five starts as a favorite.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (42-40) and Cincinnati Reds (41-40) play the second game of a three-game set Saturday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs at Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Adbert Alzolay is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. He is 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 65 1/3 IP over 13 starts.

Alzolay has dropped three straight starts, coughing up 11 earned runs in just 10 2/3 innings during the span. However, he allowed just five hits and three walks with six strikeouts in 5 2/3 scoreless innings in a win over the Reds May 28.

RHP Tyler Mahle is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 84 1/3 IP over 16 starts.

Mahle lost last time out allowing four runs, six hits and a walk with seven strikeouts over six innings in a loss against the Atlanta Braves. He allowed just one hit and one walk with eight strikeouts in five scoreless frames in a road win against the Cubs May 30.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Cubs at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:00 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Reds -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-165) | Reds -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Reds 5, Cubs 2

Money line (ML)

The REDS (-140) are a solid play on their home field against the Cubs (+115). They won the series opener 2-1 at GABP, and they shoot for their first three-game win streak since rattling off six consecutive victories from June 11-16. Mahle had two of those six wins.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The REDS -1.5 (+145) are worth a roll of the dice. While their past two wins have each been one-run games, four of their past six victories have been by two or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 9 (+100) easily connected in Friday’s series opener with three total runs, and we should get another low-scoring game with Mahle and Alzolay on the mound. The Under is 5-2 in Mahle’s past seven starts, while the Under is 4-1-2 in Alzolay’s past seven outings.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (42-39) start a three-game set with the NL Central rival Cincinnati Reds (40-40) Friday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago has lost six straight games to the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers entering Friday and is just 3-7 in the last 10 games.

Cincinnati prevented a three-game sweep by the San Diego Padres with a 5-4 come from behind victory Thursday after the Reds rallied to score two runs in the bottom of the 9th. The Reds are 5-5 over their last 10 games.

Season series: Tied 3-3.

RHP Alec Mills is on the hill for the Cubs. Mills is 3-1 with a 5.11 ERA (37 IP, 21 ER), 1.60 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 across four starts and 12 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 2 K in Chicago’s 3-2 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster: 56 at-bats with a .143/.226/.321 slash line, 17/6 K/BB, 3 HR and 5 RBIs.

RHP Sonny Gray makes his 11th start for the Reds. Gray is 1-4 with a 3.42 ERA (50 IP, 19 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 5 K in Cincinnati’s 5-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers June 8.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster: 114 at-bats with a .123/.194/.202 slash line, 39/8 K/BB, 2 HR and 9 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Cubs at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:34 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Reds -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-140) | Reds -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Reds 8, Cubs 3

Money line (ML)

BET the REDS (-160) for 1 unit because their lineup is very productive at home, the Cubs are just 16-26 in road games and Gray’s pitching peripherals both against current Chicago batters and for the season are far superior to Mills’.

For instance, the Reds lineup is third in hard-hit rate, fourth in wRC+ and second in wOBA at home while the Cubs lineup is bottom-10 in the majors on the road across all of those hitting metrics.

In fact, the Reds scored a combined 23 runs in their three-game set with the Cubs in Cincinnati earlier this season.

Lastly, Gray has a 2.27 FIP, .245 expected wOBA, .316 expected slugging percentage and 32.1% strikeout rate vs. active Cubs batters.

Whereas Mills has a 6.53 FIP, .393 expected wOBA, .570 expected slugging percentage and a 20.5% strikeout rate against current Reds hitters.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the REDS -1.5 (+115) for a half unit because of Cincinnati’s aforementioned edges and Chicago has lost by two or more runs in four of the past six games.

However, it’s only a “lean” because three of the six Cubs-Reds meetings this season have been decided by a single run and Cincinnati’s bullpen is unreliable with 27th-ranked WAR and 28th-ranked left-on-base percentage.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-115) for a quarter unit – if at all – because these teams have a combined 4-10 O/U record when these starters take the mound and a vast majority of the market is betting the Over.

Even though I don’t like following a crowd of people in sports betting, I do agree with the market in preferring the Over because of the Reds hitting prowess in Cincinnati and the Great American Ball Park being fifth in runs scored due to park factors.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (49-33) go for a three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds (39-40) Thursday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Padres lead 6-0

San Diego, which swept Cincinnati in four games at Petco Park June 17-20, took the first two games of this series. The Padres won 7-5 in a rain-shortened tilt, which was called in the sixth inning, Wednesday after taking Tuesday’s opener 5-4.

LHP Ryan Weathers is projected to start the series finale for the Padres. The rookie is 3-2 with a 2.47 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 14 appearances, including 8 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 5 K for Triple-A El Paso June 24
  • Career vs. Reds: No appearances

RHP Luis Castillo is penciled in to start for the Redlegs. The five-year veteran is 3-10 with a 5.14 ERA (84 IP, 48 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 16 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-1 home victory vs. Atlanta Braves Saturday
  • Career vs. Padres: 2-3, 3.48 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 6 starts

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Padres at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+150) | Reds +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Padres 6, Reds 4

Money line (ML)

SAN DIEGO (-105) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

The Padres are the hottest team in baseball winning 11 of their last 12 games.

They’re also 6-0 vs. Cincinnati this season. Why stop now?

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Back the PADRES -1.5 (+150) with a QUARTER-UNIT play. They’ve covered the spread in 4 of their 6 games vs. the Reds.

Plus, Weathers has pitched well in his eight major-league starts, going 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.1 K/9.

The reason for the small wager is because Castillo has pitched well lately. In five June starts, the 2019 All-Star posted a 1.71 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 6 ER) with 32 strikeouts. He’s just not getting run support as his record was only 2-2 for the month.

One of those losses was a tight 3-2 decision to the Padres June 20 when he yielded 3 runs (2 earned) on 6 hits and 3 walks with 7 K’s over 6 innings.

ATS records: Padres 43-39 | Reds 37-42

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS. The Reds are the best Over team in the NL while the Padres have cashed more Over tickets vs. Under wagers.

I’m just leery of Weathers, and especially Castillo, turning this into a low-scoring affair.

O/U records: Padres 44-37-1 | Reds 45-31-3

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 69-76-3 22-30-1 -12.81
2020 MLB 80-59-1 39-21 +24.79
2021 (all sports) 175-163-4 73-72-1 +2.3
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

Follow @JohnnyParlay11 on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (48-33) and Cincinnati Reds (39-39) play the middle contest in a three-game set Wednesday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Joe Musgrove is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. Over 15 games (14 starts), Musgrove is 4-6 with a 2.22 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 in 85 IP.

The Friars right-hander tossed 7 shutout frames against Cincinnati June 17. He owns a 1.57 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP over his last 8 starts.

RHP Vladimir Gutierrez is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. Through six starts, Gutierrez is 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9 in 34 IP.

The rookie right-hander has benefited from some hit-rate friendly traffic conditions. Opponents have a mere .242 batting average on balls in play.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Padres at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100) |  Reds +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-120) | Reds +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Padres 7, Reds 4

Money line (ML)

San Diego took Tuesday’s opener, 5-4, and has gone 10-1 since June 16. The Padres are the lean in this one, but consider the less-juicer run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Current Reds batters own a mere .643 OPS against Musgrove, and Cincinnati owns a mere .666 over its last 14 games. Cincy’s lefty bats are a big key in their production; San Diego’s bullpen is very tough on lefties.

BACK THE PADRES -1.5 (-120).

Over/Under (O/U)

With a bit of fade on the starter-and-bullpen combo on the visitors’ side; a more significant fade on Gutierrez; San Diego’s recent surge (.926 OPS last two weeks); the way Cincinnati hits at home (.818 OPS); the Over already has a lean.

Add in some warm, humid conditions and a breeze out the left-center (with Gutierrez being a fly-ball pitcher), TAKE THE OVER 10 (-110).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (47-33) and Cincinnati Reds (39-38) open a three-game series Tuesday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Padres lead 4-0

The Friars, who had Monday off, are 9-1 in their last 10 games after taking two of three at home from the Arizona Diamondbacks over the weekend.

Cincy will look to avenge a 4-game sweep at San Diego (June 17-20). The Redlegs beat the Philadelphia Phillies 12-4 in a makeup game Monday scoring 4 runs in the seventh inning and 6 in the eighth.

LHP Blake Snell is projected to start for the Padres Tuesday. He is 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 in 15 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 3-2 home victory vs. Los Angeles Dodgers June 22
  • Career vs. Reds: No appearances

RHP Tony Santillan is projected to make his fourth career start – and appearance – for the Reds. The rookie is 1-1 with a 3.29 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 5.3 BB/9.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 5-3 home victory vs. Atlanta Braves Thursday
  • Career vs. Padres: 0-1, 9.00 ERA (3 IP, 3 ER), 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 start, an 8-2 road loss in just his second MLB outing June 18

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Padres at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:15  a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-110) | Reds +1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Reds 8, Padres 6

Money line (ML)

CINCINNATI (+140) is where the value is.

The Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 home games. The Padres, who just wrapped up a 9-1 homestand, are 1-9 in their last 10 road games.

Plus, Snell has been awful away from Petco Park. He is 0-3 with a 10.36 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 33 ER) with a 2.23 WHIP in 8 road starts this season.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since we’re already backing the Reds’ ML at plus-money.

ATS records: Padres 42-38 | Reds 36-41

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 10 (-110) is STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

At 44-30-3, the Reds have the best Over record in the NL, and the Padres are third at 43-36-1.

After putting up 12 runs Monday, the Reds lead the majors with 5.83 runs per home game.

The Padres are third in the NL with 4.77 runs per road game.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 67-75-3 21-30-1 -14.1725
2020 MLB 80-59-1 39-21 +24.79
2021 (all sports) 173-162-4 72-72-1 +0.9375
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

Follow @JohnnyParlay11 on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (36-39) and Cincinnati Reds (38-38) meet Monday in a rescheduled game from a June 2 rainout. The longtime National League foes have a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Spencer Howard is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, and 7.0 BB/9 in 19 1/3 IP across four starts and four relief appearances.

Howard is coming off seven days of rest; he hasn’t pitched since making a 53-pitch relief appearance June 20 at the San Francisco Giants.

LHP Wade Miley is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 6-4 with a 2.85 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 in 75 2/3 IP over 13 starts.

The veteran lefty has logged a fine 2.67 ERA with a 2.1 BB/9 in 33 2/3 innings at home this season. He’s held current Philadelphia bats to a .694 OPS over his career.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Phillies at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:12 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Reds -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-140) | Reds -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Phillies 6, Reds 4

Money line (ML)

Peg Miley as being too far out over his skis with a surface ERA under 3.00. He’s benefited from a .251 batting average on balls in play and is up against an opponent swinging hot bats of late. The Phils own a robust .746 OPS in June.

The Reds hurler is backed by a scuffling bullpen that owns a 6.26 ERA in June and analytics back the story that number tells.

TAKE PHILADELPHIA (+135).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the run line and take advantage of the underdog payout on the money line.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Under is trending with both teams of late going 3-1 in Philadelphia’s last 4 games and 4-0 in Cincinnati’s last 4. Look for some swing the other way on a hot, humid evening in Cincinnati.

Howard throws a lot of fastballs and the Reds are a very good fastball-hitting club. The righty-lefty match-up on the mound swings both teams to their best platoon sides. The Cincy bullpen is in fade-a-whole-run territory compared to the rest of the league.

BACK THE OVER 9.5 (-115).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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