Tag: Reds Pirates odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (12-7) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (7-11) to PNC Park Thursday. First pitch in the opener of a 4-game series is set for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cincinnati leads 2-1

The Reds have lost 2 straight, but have managed to win 3 of their last 7 games. Cincinnati has scored 5.8 runs per game over its last 5 and has allowed 6.6 per game over that span.

The Pirates are just 3-3 at home this season, but did blast the Rockies 14-3 in their last outing, completing the 3-game sweep over Colorado. Pittsburgh has won 4 of its last 5.

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Reds at Pirates projected starters

RHP Luke Weaver vs. RHP Roansy Contreras

Weaver makes his 1st start of the season. He had a 1.822 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 35 2/3 IP a season ago.

  • Hasn’t consistently started since the 2021 season when he was 3-6 in 13 starts with 4.25 ERA
  • Hasn’t faced the Pirates since 2019

Contreras (1-1, 6.00 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.733 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 15 IP.

  • Pirates are 2-1 in 3 starts by Contreras, who has gone 5-plus innings twice
  • Faced the Reds 3 times in 2022 and the Pirates won all 3

Reds at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:34 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Pirates -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-160) | Pirates -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Reds at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 7, Reds 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Reds have not been good on the road, but at (-150), the Pirates are too expensive to play to win outright here. Similarly, the Reds (+125) have good value ,but have lost 2 in a row by at least 8 runs are just 1-5 on the road.

Avoid the moneyline both ways.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PIRATES -1.5 (+135).

The Reds’ last 4 losses have been emphatic defeats. They lost 8-0 and 1-0 to the Rays in the last 2 days and lost 14-3 and 8-3 to the Phillies prior to that.

Cincinnati’s bullpen hasn’t been good this season, and it’s relatively unknown how much it’ll get from Weaver. For Pittsburgh, it is 3-3 at home but coming in hot, having won 3 in a row.

Pittsburgh is 12-7 ATS this season as well. Back the PIRATES -1.5 (+135).

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9 (-110).

The Reds are 11-7 O/U this season and have topped the projected total in 4 of their last 6 games. They have scored 0 runs in their last 2 games, but did score 8 and 13 in 2 of the 3 prior games.

They’re inconsistent, but considering Contreras isn’t a stud on the mound, they should be able to get loose. The Pirates are 9-9-1 O/U this season but 3-1 O/U in their last 4 games.

With neither pitcher their respective club’s ace, take the OVER 9 (-110).

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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (60-95) finish a 3-game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates (58-97) Wednesday at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Pirates lead 11-7

The Reds have dropped the first 2 in this series by the scores of 8-3 and 4-1. Young stud RHP Hunter Greene gave up an unearned run on 4 hits and 3 walks with 10 K’s over 6 IP, and the bullpen gave it away Tuesday.

The Bucs have won 3 of 4 games as they try to battle out of the NL Central cellar. They have had Cincinnati’s number this year, winning the last 6 matchups. SS Oneil Cruz is hitting .283 with 7 homers and 21 RBIs over the last 30 days. He and 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes look to be a solid tandem to build around, and they look to finish the season strong.

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Reds at Pirates projected starters

RHP Luis Cessa vs. RHP Bryse Wilson

Cessa (4-4, 4.78 ERA) makes his 9th start and 45th appearance. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 69 2/3 IP.

  • Last 5 starts: 1-2 with a 3.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.3 K/9
  • 2022 vs. PIT: 9 1/3 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Wilson (3-9, 5.95 ERA) makes his 20th start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 104 1/3 IP.

  • Last 28 days: 1-1, 5.32 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.0 K/9
  • 2022 vs. CIN: 1-1, 3.26 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 19 1/3 IP

Reds at Pirates odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Reds -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Pirates -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds -1.5 (+155) | Pirates +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Reds at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Pirates 3

Money line

The Reds should get some revenge Wednesday as Cessa is a much better pitcher on the road with a 3.11 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Pittsburgh got to him at Great American Ball Park 2 weeks ago, but he hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in 6 of his 7 other latest outings.

I like the REDS (-105).

Run line/Against the spread

Wilson has allowed at least 3 ER in his last 2 starts against Cincinnati and he’s allowed at least 3 ER in 6 of his last 7 starts overall. I like the Reds to get to him today, but I don’t trust the bullpen enough to go RL here. I like the REDS OVER 1.5 TOTAL RUNS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-150) and feel it’s close to a lock.

Over/Under

It’s a chilly, 58-degree day at PNC with a 7-mph gust blowing straight out to center field. The Under is 4-0 in Cessa’s last 4 road starts. The Reds are just 2-8 O/U in the last 10 games. I think the Under sneaks by in this one but only risk a HALF-UNIT on the UNDER 8.5 (-125).

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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (60-93) and Pittsburgh Pirates (56-97) meet Monday for a 6:35 p.m. ET first pitch to open a 3-game series at PNC Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Pirates with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Pittsburgh leads 9-7

Cincinnati has lost 3 of its last 4 games and was swept in a 4-game home series by Pittsburgh Sept. 12-14.

The Pirates are in last place in the NL Central Division and are 7-15 so far in September.

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Reds at Pirates Projected Starters

RHP Chase Anderson vs. RHP Roansy Contreras

Anderson (2-3, 5.21 ERA) has appeared in 6 games and made 5 starts. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 19.0 IP.

  • Is 2-0 in his last 2 starts with 7 K over 10 IP
  • Allowed 1 ER with 4 K across 5 IP in his last start against the Boston Red Sox Wednesday

Contreras (5-5, 3.68 ERA) has appeared in 19 games and made 16 starts. He has a 1.30 WHIP,  3.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 88 IP.

  • Is 2-3 with a 3.55 ERA (38 IP, 15 ER) with 30 H allowed across his last 5 starts
  • Allowed 6 ER on 6 H and 2 BB with 10 K across 4 2/3 IP in his last start at the New York Yankees Wednesday

Reds at Pirates odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Pirates -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-175) | Pirates -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Reds at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 6, Reds 4

Money line

These teams are not only the worst in the NL Central but also amongst the worst in the league. With no major implications on the line as both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, I do not expect either to be playing significantly harder than normal.

I would PASS on a money line bet in a game with no clear favorite.

Run line/Against the spread

When these teams have played each other this season the margin of victory is often north of 4 runs. Because of this, and the fact that Pittsburgh is starting one of their better pitchers whereas Cincinnati is doing the opposite, I would TAKE PITTSBURGH -1.5 (+140).

Over/Under

The Pirates swept the Reds and only scored fewer than 6 runs once throughout the entire series when these teams met in early September. Against one of the Reds’ worst pitchers I would bet that the Pirates are able to put up at least 6 runs Monday. The OVER 7.5 (-117) is the 2nd strongest play in this game.

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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (46-71) take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (47-72) Saturday in the 2nd game of a 3-game set at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 5-5

Cincinnati coughed one up in the 9th inning to fall 5-4 to Pittsburgh in a score we nailed Friday night. The Reds led 3-1 into the 7th inning before unraveling. They’re now 2-8 over the last 10 games and 20-35 on the road.

Pirates CF Bryan Reynolds cooled off with just a single and a walk after hitting 4 homers in 4 games, but some of his teammates stepped up. 2B Kevin Newman tied it at 4-4 with a 9th-inning, one out double. Three batters later, 1B Michael Chavis was the hero with a walk-off, bases-loaded single. The Pirates have won 2 in a row but are just 3-8 over their last 11.

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Reds at Pirates projected starters

RHP Justin Dunn vs. RHP Tyler Beede

Dunn (0-1, 8.64 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.92 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 6.5  K/9 in 8 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed 5 ER on 7 H and 2 BB with 4 K in 3 2/3 in no-decision Sunday at home against the Cubs last time out
  • Has given up 4 home runs in his 2 starts, 3 to Cubs in last outing

Beede (1-2, 3.72 ERA) makes his 4th start and 27th appearance. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 5.6  K/9 in 48 1/3 combined IP with Pirates and Giants this season.

  • Stretched out to season-high 74 pitches last time out and allowed 2 ER on 3 H and 3 BB with 3 K in 3 IP of 2-0 loss at Giants Aug. 13
  • Has a 3.49 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 15 ER) in 20 appearances, including 3 starts, with Pirates this year

Reds at Pirates odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Reds +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Pirates -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-170) | Pirates -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Reds at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 6, Pirates 5

Money line

With two questionable starters on the hill, Saturday should be a day for the offense. Seven of the Reds’ starting 9 had hits Friday, and I look for right-handed bats like 2B Jonathan India or OF Aristides Aquino to come alive. Take the REDS (+120) for a HALF UNIT.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Reds’ -170 run line is out of my price range, and these teams are too unpredictable to get cute with a -1.5.

I am confident in REDS OVER 3.5 TOTAL RUNS (-130) and might sprinkle some on REDS OVER 4.5 TOTAL RUNS (+122).

Over/Under

The wind is blowing in from right-center at nearly 8 mph. Otherwise, this total is probably 9.5. Neither starter can be relied upon, and they may not even make it through 5 innings. The Reds have the worst bullpen ERA (4.98) in the majors, and the Pirates are tied for 4th-worst (4.48).

Without hesitation, take the OVER 8.5 (-130).

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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (46-70) head east to face the Pittsburgh Pirates (46-72) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 5-4

The Reds are coming off a 1-0 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday. It was just their 3rd win in the last 10 games. They are 20-34 on the road. The Reds also lost 1B Joey Votto for the rest of the season as he prepares for rotator cuff surgery. They have some interesting pieces in the rotation to build around, though. One of which will go Friday.

The Pirates snapped a 6-game losing streak Thursday with an 8-2 victory over the Boston Red Sox. All-Star OF Bryan Reynolds hit 2 homers and has 4 HR and 11 RBIs in the last 4 games. He has been 1 of the few bright spots for a team that is 8-22 in its last 30 games.

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Reds at Pirates projected starters

RHP Graham Ashcraft vs. RHP Bryse Wilson

Ashcraft (5-3, 3.96 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 86 1/3 IP.

  • Has a 1.77 ERA over last 3 starts
  • Struggles on the road with a 4.46 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 5.4 K/9 vs. 3.56 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 6.2 K/9 at home

Wilson (2-7, 5.93 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 71 1/3 IP.

  • Bad at home with a 7.50 ERA, 1.71 WHIP in 5 starts (6 games)
  • Allowed 4 R (1 ER) on 7 H with 4 K in 6 2/3 IP vs. Reds July 7

Reds at Pirates odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:19 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Reds -117 (bet $117 to win $100) | Pirates -103 (bet $103 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds -1.5 (+145) | Pirates +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Reds at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 5, Reds 4

Money line

These teams split a 4-game set in Pittsburgh in May, but Cincinnati is without a lot of pieces since that series. With Reynolds mashing and leading the charge, the Pirates take this game. Take the PIRATES (-103) for a HALF-UNIT.

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Run line/Against the spread

I don’t like either side here. So let’s look at a prop bet. As mentioned, Reynolds is mashing with 5 extra base hits in his last 4 games. He’s hitting .339 with 8 XBH in 59 at-bats this month. Take REYNOLDS OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (+107).

Over/Under

The Over is 7-2-1 for Pittsburgh in the last 10. There is some evidence toward the Under, but this is a small number for a game with 2 questionable starters. LEAN OVER 7.5 (-122).

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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (75-71) and Pittsburgh Pirates (54-91) meet Thursday to put a lid on a three-game set at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Tyler Mahle is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 11-5 with a 3.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 159 1/3 IP over 29 starts.

  • Allowed 3 ER with 17 K over 12 1/3 IP across two starts against the Pirates this season.
  • Has struggled in his batter-friendly home park but owns a 1.97 ERA and 0.99 WHIP on the road.

RHP Connor Overton is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. The 28-year old is making his first big-league start after five outings as a reliever. He has not allowed an earned run while giving up 4 H and 2 BB with 5 K across 7 2/3 IP with the Toronto Blue Jays and Pittsburgh.

  • Has not gone more than 3 IP in an appearance, and his longest outing came more than three weeks ago. Thursday’s effort against the Reds figures to be in the opener role on a bullpen day.
  • Pitched 1 inning out of the bullpen Sunday after being claimed off waivers by the Pirates. His previous 6 2/3 innings were logged with the Blue Jays.

Reds at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:52 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Pirates +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (-108) | Pirates +1.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Reds 6, Pirates 3

Money line (ML)

Cincinnati has dropped the first two games of this series and is 0-4 in its last four. Problems with the Cincy offense have led to the Reds going just 4-12 with a .668 OPS since Aug. 28.

The Pirates are 4-1 over their last five games and are 10-5 with a .753 OPS in their last 15 games at PNC Park.

However, that recent Pittsburgh surge at home has been fueled by an easy schedule and a slew of one-run victories. The Reds have been undone by the same margin of late.

With road-warrior Tyler Mahle on the mound and with Cincinnati still playing October-relevant games, peg the REDS (-180) as having a bit of value in the series finale.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Pirates own the league’s second-worst run differential at minus-1.43. The price on the visitors is attractive: BACK THE REDS -1.5 (-108).

Over/Under (O/U)

Mixed signals in the supporting analytics for both offenses and bullpens, and not enough data compiled on Overton. PASS.

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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (53-91) host the Cincinnati Reds (75-70) Wednesday for the second game of their three-game series at PNC Park with the first pitch scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Pittsburgh took Tuesday’s series opener 6-5 as the Pirates’ 6-run lead after the fifth inning was too much for the Reds to overcome.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Reds lead 9-2.

RHP Vladimir Gutiérrez is Cincinnati’s projected starter. He is 9-6 with a 4.05 ERA (104 1/3 IP, 47 ER), 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 across 19 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Cincy’s 4-1 loss at the Chicago Cubs Sept. 8, with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • Gutiérrez beat Pittsburgh, 11-3, Aug. 7, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 6 K.

RHP Mitch Keller gets the nod for the Pirates. He is 4-11 with a 6.29 ERA (83 IP, 58 ER), 1.77 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 over 19 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-1, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 1 BB and 6 K Sept. 8 against the Detroit Tigers.
  • Keller is 0-2 with 8 1/3 IP, 11 ER, 14 H, 6 BB and 6 K in two starts against the Reds this season.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster (73 PA): 8.53 FIP with a .345 average, .465 wOBA, .465 xSLG, 24.7 K% and 91.8 mph exit velocity.

Reds at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+110) | Pirates +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Reds 9, Pirates 4

Money line (ML)

The “reverse line movement” headed in Pittsburgh’s direction gives this contest a “trap game” feel so I’ll just “LEAN” to the REDS (-145) for a half unit.

According to Pregame.com at the time of writing, more than 85% of the action is on the Reds but the Pirates have gone from a +143 consensus underdog to the listed price. It’s always a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.

However, it’s hard to figure out how the Pirates win this game against a Cincinnati team motivated by still being in the playoff hunt and that has owned Pittsburgh this season.

Furthermore, Gutiérrez is more effective away from Cincy’s notoriously hitter-friendly ballpark and Keller has gotten raked in Pittsburgh. Gutiérrez has a 3.43 road ERA (4.91 ERA at home), 1.21 road WHIP (1.43 WHIP at home) and a .672 opponent OPS (.889 opponent’s OPS at home).

Keller is 2-8 at home with an 8.19 ERA (3.63 road ERA), 2.05 WHIP (1.39 road WHIP) and 1.6 K/BB (3.2 K/BB on the road).

Lastly, Cincy’s lineup is significantly more productive than Pittsburgh’s and the Reds bullpen has hovered around the top-10 of several advanced pitching metrics following the All-Star break, whereas Pirates relievers have gotten roughed up all season.

“LEAN” REDS (-145) for a half unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because we have a “pros vs. joes” situation in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money backing the Pirates +1.5 (-135) and the public is betting on the Reds -1.5 (+110).

Oddsmakers have reacted to the money column and have made Pittsburgh’s run line more expensive since the opener.

In sports betting, it’s not very profitable to fade the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

Plus, the Reds are 8-20 ATS as road favorites and the lowly Pirates are still 34-29 ATS as home underdogs.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit because eight of the last 10 Reds-Pirates meeting went Over the projected total and Pittsburgh is sending out one of the most poorly graded starting pitchers in the NL.

Keller grades in the second percentile in hard-hit rate, third percentile in exit velocity, 21st percentile in xSLG, 11th percentile in xwOBA and 19th percentile in chase rate.

If Cincy’s lineup cannot rake Keller then it’ll have plenty of chances against this bottom rung Pittsburgh bullpen.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (16-16) play the Pittsburgh Pirates (14-20) Tuesday at PNC Park in Game 2 of their three-game set. First pitch is at 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Pirates with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincinnati drilled Pittsburgh 14-1 Monday and has won all four meetings so far this season by a combined score of 44-9.

RHP Jeff Hoffman makes his seventh start for the Reds. He is 2-2 with a 4.39 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9.

  • Last outing: Loss in 2 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K last Tuesday against the Chicago White Sox.
  • Career vs. Pirates: 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA (8 IP, 9 ER), 2.88 WHIP and 5.6 K/9 across 2 starts.
    • vs. Pirates on the current roster: 19 at-bats with a .474/.524/.737 slash line and 1 HR.

RHP JT Brubaker gets the start for the Pirates. He is 2-2 with a 2.78 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 across 6 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 7 K in Pittsburgh’s 4-2 loss at the San Diego Padres Wednesday.
  • Career vs. Reds: 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.39 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 in 2 starts.
    • vs. Reds on the current roster: 34 at-bats with a .235/.333/.294 slash line.

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Reds at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Pirates -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-200) | Pirates -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Pirates 5, Reds 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the PIRATES (-120) for 1 unit because bookmakers have the right team favored and the “sharp” money is with Pittsburgh while the public is rolling with a Cincinnati team expected to compete for the NL Central crown.

It’s considered a possibility this Pirates team could lose 100 games this season and doesn’t nearly have the talent or expectations of the Reds; however, the starting pitching matchup is lopsided with Hoffman being a fringe rotation guy and Brubaker looking like a legitimate top-end starter thus far.

Also, this is a “Pros vs. Joes” spot in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, more money has been wagered on Pittsburgh’s money line whereas more bets have been placed on Cincinnati.

Typically, the money column represents the “sharp” side and the bets placed column represents the “average Joe”. It’s generally wiser to follow the money rather than the crowd of people in sports betting.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the PIRATES -1.5 (+165) for a quarter unit because Pittsburgh’s run line payout is chunky enough to sprinkle on and Hoffman has terrible numbers against this Pirates team.

Also, since the beginning of last season, Pittsburgh has the second-best run line cover rate in divisional games.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8 (-115) for a quarter unit because the Pirates are 1-4 O/U this season in Brubaker starts and we have another “Pros vs. Joes” scenario in the market with the presumed “sharp” money on the Under and the “public money” on the Over.

My hesitancy with backing the Under is Cincinnati’s terrible bullpen combined with Hoffman’s splits against Pittsburgh and the Reds scored 11 or more runs in each of their last three games against the Pirates.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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