Tag: CFP Implications

Week 14 CFP Eliminator: Goodbye Bama

For the first time in the College Football Playoff era, the Alabama Crimson Tide have been eliminated from CFP contention.

Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post. In short, I ask myself a simple question: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, I’ll eliminate those teams. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.

This week was a historic moment in College Football Playoff Eliminator history. I have been writing or tweeting an Eliminator since the CFP began in 2014, and I have never before been able to tweet that Alabama was eliminated. Well, that changed this week. With two losses and no good wins at all, Alabama is out.

Even though there is a chance at chaos and a weak bubble, Alabama’s resume is just too weak. I haven’t eliminated Oregon and Wisconsin yet, even though there’s no real path for those two. The question is what happens if Clemson loses to Virginia in the ACC Championship Game. Would the committee take an 11-2 Oregon team with a mediocre schedule and two ranked wins over a 12-1 Clemson team with no ranked wins? Almost certainly not. Would the committee take an 11-2 Wisconsin team with a strong schedule and three ranked wins (including one over Ohio State) over a 12-1 Clemson team? Probably not, but maybe.

What I know for sure, though, is that the committee would take a 12-1 Clemson team with no resume over an 11-2 Alabama team with no resume. Add to that that the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 champions are guaranteed to finish ahead of Alabama (as are Ohio State and LSU, even with losses this week), and Alabama is done. No path remains to the No. 4 slot. Thus, for the first time in College Football Playoff history, Alabama is eliminated.

Next … What teams are still alive?

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Ohio State football rooting interests for Week 14

What should Ohio State Buckeye fans root to happen this weekend? Let’s go through the schedule, including major rivalry games.

There are just two weeks left in the college football season, and one of those is just conference championship games. Ohio State looks to be closing in on a College Football Playoff spot. Now it’s time to look at what the Buckeyes should root for to ensure they get in, even if they don’t win their last two games. And, maybe, we can touch on what to root for to get a preferred matchup in the semifinals.

At this point, we first have to figure out exactly what case Ohio State is rooting for. The Buckeyes are a Playoff lock with a win next week in the Big Ten Championship Game, even if they lose to Michigan. So, basically, Ohio State is rooting for the scenario that can allow it to get into the Playoff with a Big Ten Championship Game loss.

We’ll touch on it more later, but an important starting point for Ohio State is Wisconsin beating Minnesota. If the Golden Gophers win out, they’re in the Playoff. A Wisconsin win means that the Buckeyes, at worst, will be the Big Ten’s only one-loss team, so Ohio State should stay ahead of Wisconsin even with a loss to the Badgers.

Improving the resume overall will be important if a 12-1 non-Big Ten champion Ohio State team wants in the Playoff, so wins by Miami (Oh) and FAU will be useful. A win by Cincinnati over Memphis is even more important, as that would likely lock up a year-end ranking for the Bearcats, and keep alive their chances of ending in the Top 15 or better.

Ultimately, though, for Ohio State to get in the Playoff in this case, it needs there to not be four other contenders with better resumes. Right now, the teams with potentially better resumes are:
1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. Utah
5. Oklahoma
6. Baylor
7. Alabama

Little things might matter, because if it comes to splitting hairs between a 12-1 Ohio State or a 12-1 Clemson (or a 12-1 Alabama), the more points of contrast in Ohio State’s favor, the better. We’ll focus on that later. For now, let’s get the big things out of the way. At least four of these teams need to have a resume worse than a 12-1 Ohio State (with a loss to Wisconsin) will have. Let’s break them down.

Next…Looking at these seven resumes

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Week 14 College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Who’s No. 4?

As the college football season winds down, let’s look at the resumes of the remaining contenders for the College Football Playoff.

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. If you’ve been reading through my Eliminator articles, you’d know that I still count 11 teams with a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. (And if you haven’t been reading them, please feel free to go back to them.)

Now that teams have played enough games, we can get a real look at every team’s resume. So, for the 11 teams still alive, I am going to present all of the resumes to you (plus one extra). We’re going to look at every resume so that we can compare what positives and negatives each team has. It’s the easiest and best way to understand what each team is bringing to the table in the College Football Playoff discussion.

Right now, it looks like Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson have the top three spots locked down. Looking at the resumes will show why Ohio State and LSU can easily survive a loss this week. Clemson with a loss, though, is a bit more iffy. And, of course, the resumes will tell us who has the best shot at finishing No. 4.

How this works

Let’s go over what I’m looking at and why.

Quality of wins

For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between No. 24 and No. 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (CFP, AP, or Amway Coaches), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. Moreover, it just makes sense. The committee is aware of who is a good team and what counts as a win of decent quality, even if that team didn’t quite make it into the rankings.

I also split up every game each team has played into different groups. The groupings are important. First of all, I focus on Top 10 and Top 25 wins. These are, obviously, the quality wins. Next, I’m looking for teams in the Top 40. These are solid wins and deserve respect. The next group is teams somewhere between 41st and 80th in FBS. These are mediocre teams–they are games that any Playoff contender should win, but could in theory lose on an off day. Everyone outside the Top 80 is a complete cupcake game, and should be valued as a negative. To determine where each team is and who is outside the Top 80, I use a collection of computer rankings that focus on different things (e.g. Sagarin and Anderson) to get broad perspectives on who is a cupcake and who isn’t.

The selection committee has consistently mentioned “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric over the past few years, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one–there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Buffalo or Western Kentucky)–the committee cares about it, so we have to as well.

Offensive and defensive performance

I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.
Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.

SOS range

The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, especially as different rankings favor different things. They do, however, give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is. SOS Ranges could still be wide in some cases, but in general they should narrow a bit over the next few weeks. Still, different methodologies can lead to some very different types of SOS numbers, and getting the full range presents a more accurate picture.

Next… Teams that control their own destinies

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What the CFP Selection Committee Taught Us: Back to normal

A look back at what the College Football Playoff selection committee taught us in its fourth rankings of the year.

With very limited exceptions, the College Football Playoff selection committee has been consistent over the last few years about a few things. One of those is the fact that, especially as we get later in the season, Power 5 teams are ranked in order of number of losses.

So far this year, that wasn’t true. The selection committee consistently had Baylor ranked below several two-loss teams. The reason given by Rob Mullens was that the Bears played an atrocious nonconference schedule. On top of that, I am sure that Baylor consistently barely beating weaker teams was also a factor. Well, after blowing out Texas, the committee finally put Baylor where it belongs–as the lowest-ranked one-loss Power 5 team.

There is a decent case to be made that Baylor belongs behind Florida or Penn State. The SOS is still terrible, and the advanced metrics aren’t particularly kind to the Bears either. Remember, though, the only time the CFP committee has ever had a two-loss P5 team ahead of a one-loss P5 team at the end of the season was in 2015–when 11-2 Pac 12 champion Stanford, who played the toughest schedule in the country, finished ahead of 11-1 Ohio State, who only had one win against a quality team.

The only exceptions to this rule right now are Auburn being ahead of Notre Dame, and Iowa State and USC (with four losses each) are ahead of three-loss Virginia Tech and unranked Virginia. Seeing as the resumes of both Virginia teams are incredibly weak, it makes perfect sense.

Ohio State vs LSU at the top

In an ultimately meaningless decision, the selection committee moved Ohio State back over LSU. The Tigers still have slightly higher-quality wins and a slightly better resume, but the committee felt that Ohio State was more of a “complete team,” and that LSU’s struggles on defense sometimes are why the Buckeyes are in front right now.

Remember, though, this still doesn’t mean anything. If the Ohio State defense struggles against Michigan (or in the Big Ten Championship Game), the committee can just always flip the teams again. Ohio State’s two remaining games are tougher than LSU’s, but not by much. A win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game could easily bump LSU back over the Buckeyes, especially a convincing one.

This will only matter when determining the semifinal opponents. Everyone assumes that Clemson will be No. 3 in two weeks, but crazier things have happened. Clemson can lose a game–or LSU can. Or the committee could be impressed enough with a 12-1 Oklahoma team with four ranked wins to jump the Sooners over a Clemson team with, at most, one ranked win. (That seems unlikely, but we’ve definitely seen stranger things happen.)

The committee will make its final decisions a week from Sunday. We look at the rankings until then to try to see what the voters value and how they look at teams. But picking who is No. 1 between the two far-and-away best resumes in the country is just splitting hairs. The hairs will continue to be split until the end of the season, and it could easily go either way.

Change at the bottom

The committee still seems to be enamored with Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are having a great year, but they have no wins of any note. The best win is over South Carolina (or maybe Louisiana). Compare that, for example, to a Navy team that has beaten SMU and Air Force, and only lost to ranked Memphis and Notre Dame.

With SMU’s loss, Virginia Tech did manage to jump into the rankings, and over Appalachian State on top of that. This marks only the second time this year that an ACC team other than Clemson has been ranked.

Other than that, the only other changes were Penn State (a little) and Oregon (a lot) dropping for picking up losses. The committee claims to start with a blank sheet and re-rank teams every week. But with resumes constantly changing, you would think that we would see at least one team shift position other than due to losses. Maybe the committee is honestly coming to the exact same conclusions every week, but it definitely looks like the voters are starting based on what they had last week, not from scratch.

Lastly, it is noteworthy that Oregon landed right in front of Auburn. Auburn does have three losses, but all are to teams ranked ahead of Oregon. Remember, Auburn beat Oregon in Week 1. Rob Mullens isn’t in the room for Oregon discussions, and no one asked for or received an explanation of this ranking. It is very interesting, though, that for a committee that mostly prioritizes head-to-head, Auburn and Oregon were directly compared and the voters chose the team that lost their head-to-head matchup.

What to look for in the CFP selection committee’s fourth rankings

The College Football Playoff selection committee will once again release its rankings on Tuesday. Here’s what to look out for.

As usual, the College Football Playoff selection committee will release its rankings on Tuesday night. What should fans be looking for as we enter the final regular-season weekend of college football?

Interestingly enough, we are at a point in the season where there isn’t so much to learn about any team. We know that the top 17 teams are locked in to their spots, though there will obviously be shuffling. We know the contenders and the scenarios they want.

There really aren’t too many hints the committee can send us this week. There are some things to key in on, though, so let’s look at what we can see.

Obviously, there will be meaningless quibbles at the top. Who will be No. 1? Both Ohio State and LSU have very strong resumes and cases for being the top team. Ultimately, though, that won’t matter. Those are the top two, and that status quo will continue as long as each keeps winning. It’s splitting hairs, and it honestly doesn’t matter which way the split goes.

Clemson will also stay at No. 3 and Georgia at No. 4. I would be very surprised if Alabama falls behind Utah, though the committee could be willing to switch that up to send a message about playing late-season cupcakes. Don’t expect that message to be sent, though.

I would say that the committee could tell us something about Oklahoma, but it really can’t. The Sooners will be No. 7 (or maybe No. 8 if Minnesota jumps them, but that seems unlikely). Oklahoma is the team that the committee likely has the most trouble with, as the Sooners are clearly talented but struggling to close out games. Do the voters hold that against Oklahoma? There’s no real way to know, since there’s really no team close enough to Oklahoma to jump over it. If we see a team with a weaker resume, like Florida, Wisconsin, or Michigan–or if we see Penn State stay ahead of Oklahoma–then we’ll know that the committee has a serious problem with the Sooners this year. Again, though, don’t expect that to happen, just based on a complete lack of any team close enough.

A similar situation will occur at the No. 19 and 20 spot. Cincinnati has a far superior resume to Boise State. (In fact, Cincinnati has one of the best overall SOS that we’ve seen from a non-Power 5 team in a long time.) However, the Bearcats are barely squeaking through games, while Boise State is blowing teams out. It shouldn’t matter, as Cincinnati would jump back over the Broncos with a win this week, but it’s one of the few spots that can give us real insight into how the committee views blowout wins over worse teams as opposed to close wins over slightly better teams.

Lastly, see if the committee makes any changes at the bottom. SMU will drop out of the rankings, obviously, and be replaced by either Navy or Virginia Tech. Both of those teams, though, have far stronger resumes than Appalachian State. Will the committee be willing to drop a Mountaineers team that has no real resume and isn’t nearly as good as those two? Or will it keep a team ranked just because it had them there before? This decision, more than any other, will tell us whether the committee is truly willing to look at the resumes anew each week, or whether it’s mostly sticking with what it did last week and sliding teams up or down as necessary.

Week 13 CFP Implications: We know our contenders

With our Week 13 CFP Implications, we are able to look at the College Football Playoff picture with just two weeks to go.

With just two weeks left in the college football season, we usually have a small list of contenders remaining in the College Football Playoff race. The list of contenders is currently at 11, which is slightly above average.

We have 11 contenders for the next two weeks because there are so many teams with one or fewer losses. Two teams with two losses are still in the picture–Wisconsin and Oregon. Oregon essentially needs a miracle to get into the picture, while Wisconsin could have an incredible resume with two more wins.

So, that brings us to where we are now. 11 teams–three from the Big Ten, three from the SEC, two from the Big 12, two from the Pac 12, and Clemson. Wisconsin and Minnesota play an elimination game this week, with the winner moving on to the Big Ten Championship Game. LSU and Georgia will meet in the SEC Championship Game, while Alabama needs a win and then some help to get in. Utah looks in decent position now. And Oklahoma and Baylor can just win and hope the committee starts to like the Big 12 again.

The stage is very clearly set for what should be an intense final two weeks to the college football season. With that said, let’s look at the current Playoff pecking order, and what scenarios could possibly throw things out of whack. What teams are locks if they win out, who needs a little help, who is on the bubble, and who is officially a member of Team Chaos? Let’s look at as many of the potential scenarios as we can.

Next…Current Playoff Picture

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Week 13 CFP Eliminator: On the brink of chaos

Our CFP Eliminator is counting down the teams still in the College Football Playoff picture. With only two weeks to go, 12 teams remain.

Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post. In short, I ask myself a simple question: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, I’ll eliminate those teams. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.

There are still plenty of scenarios that can play out over the next two weeks, but we are so close to chaos, and every team remaining in contention can still back its way in. I only eliminated Penn State this week, and only because the wins over Pitt and Indiana got significantly worse. Penn State now only has two quality wins (Iowa and Michigan), which isn’t enough to overcome two losses, even two really good ones.

On the other hand, I didn’t eliminate Oregon. The Ducks could also only have two ranked wins (Utah and USC), but they would also be a conference champion. Oregon’s schedule is also a bit better top-to-bottom. Oregon, though, has no real shot. However, we need so little to get real chaos. If Auburn beats Alabama and Les Miles has one more trick up his sleeve next week, we could be stuck with three undefeated P5 teams and zero one-loss teams. If that happens–and remember, it only really takes chalk plus three upsets (Auburn over Alabama, Kansas over Baylor or Oklahoma State over Oklahoma, then an upset in the Big 12 Championship Game)–then we’re guaranteed a two-loss Playoff team. It won’t be Penn State. It would probably be Georgia if the SEC Championship Game is close. But it could still be Oregon.

And, of course, plenty of other chaos can still happen. Michigan–a team I’m still not sure if I was right to eliminate last week–could beat Ohio State. (If they do, the Wolverines could have Top 15 wins over Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Iowa, with two Top 10 losses.) Or Minnesota can beat Ohio State. LSU could lose one of its last two games, or maybe even both. Clemson has a rivalry game on the road–against a team that already beat Oklahoma. Chaos is coming for us. The only question is where.

Next … What teams are still alive?

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Week 13 Ohio State football rooting interests

What should Ohio State football fans root for this weekend? Let’s break it all down, from the SEC to the Pac 12.

Before we get into our third-to-last Rooting Interests of the season, we have to point out exactly what scenarios we are dealing with. With so few weeks left in the season, we can be more precise about the scenarios we’re pinning down. For example, Ohio State has no reason to care if it loses the Michigan game (unless the Buckeyes also lose a second game). Go 12-1 with a Big Ten title and a loss to Michigan, and the Buckeyes are in. So there’s no need to discuss that. Therefore, when looking an Ohio State’s potential rooting interests this week, recognize that we’re looking at what keeps the Buckeyes in the Playoff if they lose to either Penn State, or against Minnesota or Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game.

So, with that conversation out of the way, let’s look at the games. Miami of Ohio’s win over Akron was awful, and probably hurt Ohio State in some of the fancier SOS metrics. That shouldn’t matter much. Nor should Georgia Tech’s win over N.C. State, though it does make Clemson’s weak resume even worse.

As we get to the weekend, don’t bother looking at the SEC games. This is the penultimate week of the regular season, which is now officially called SEC Cupcake Week (trademark pending). The SEC West teams face opponents like Western Carolina, Samford, Abilene Christian, and Arkansas. Texas A&M beating Georgia won’t hurt the Buckeyes, but it does also help Alabama’s resume a bit. Missouri taking out Tennessee won’t mean much, but it would lock Alabama into beating a maximum of two P5 teams with winning records.

If Ohio State wants to stay ahead of Oklahoma (or Baylor, but I think that’s locked in already), root for the Big 12’s overall profile to look weaker. That means West Virginia upsetting Oklahoma State, and Kansas taking out Iowa State if possible. Kansas State losing to Texas Tech probably helps as well. And, of course, either Oklahoma or Baylor losing would go a long way to making this conversation moot; both losing would end the Big 12’s Playoff hopes.

In the ACC, it’s better if Pitt beats Virginia Tech, because that would strengthen Penn State’s overall profile. Virginia losing to Liberty seems unlikely, but would further weaken Clemson’s resume if Virginia reaches the ACC Championship Game by winning next week. Syracuse beating Louisville and Duke beating Wake Forest would also hurt Clemson’s resume. Any gain that Alabama might get from a Duke win is easily offset by what Clemson loses. Then again, Clemson is very likely going 13-0, so it might be too late to root against its resume.

And, of course, there is the Pac 12 to discuss. Washington and USC losing will wipe at any chance of multiple ranked wins by the Pac 12 champion, but at this point it looks like the Buckeyes might need a loss by either Utah or Oregon (or both) to feel safe about staying in front of a Pac 12 champion.

At night, Cincinnati gets a national spotlight against Temple. The Bearcats have really struggled the past few weeks, and they need to impress if they want their ranking to move back up. Also in the AAC, it’s probably a little better if SMU beats Navy, but that doesn’t matter too much. Lastly, keep an eye on Conference-USA. FAU should have no trouble with UTSA, but if the Buckeyes want three nonconference opponents that win their conferences (or divisions), Marshall has to lose a game. That means either this week at Charlotte or next week at home against FIU. Neither of those upsets is impossible, but they are upsets.

Next… Who to root for in Big Ten games

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Week 13 College Football Bowl Projections

Want to know where your team is likely to go bowling? Here are my current projections for all 39 FBS bowl games, including the CFP.

Welcome to the first of three sets of bowl projections that I will be providing. Make sure not to miss Phil Harrison’s projections. Every week, Phil projects to the end of the season and gives you where he thinks the Big Ten teams will end up.

I, however, will not be predicting who will win games. Instead, these projections are based on where every team sits now. Meaning, if the season ended today, where would every team be heading to bowl games? That way, readers can know what their team needs to do to move up or down in bowl selection order.

Now, I do have to admit that a small bit of prognosticating is necessary. There are currently only 66 bowl-eligible teams, but there are 39 bowl games. So, only for the purposes of determining who will reach bowl eligibility, I am forced to predict some games. To avoid bias as much as possible in the process, I will assume that the favored team wins each remaining game, and I will use FPI, SP+, Sagarin, and a few others to determine who is “favored.” As of today, these projections say there will be 80 bowl-eligible teams. That number includes Missouri. The Tigers will be left out of these projections as they are currently appealing a bowl ban before the NCAA, and no final decision has been made.

Also, remember that nowadays, bowl projections are more of an art than a science. Most conferences no longer allow the bowls to select teams in order, but instead provide “pools” of teams for certain tiers of bowls. The conferences then work with the bowls to determine which team goes where. Anything can be the cause for this–geography, fan interests, whether the conference thinks its team is more likely to win, or any other reason. Therefore, at the end of this article, I will provide a list of which conference pools would be tied to which bowl. That way, you have as much information as possible when figuring out where your team could be headed.

Finally, keep in mind that these are based on what would happen if the season ends today. The season does not end today, though, so things will change between now and Selection Sunday. However, this is where each team stands right now. (As we approach Selection Sunday, we will be able to hear rumors and whispers as to which team is headed where. I do my best to keep track, and my projections the morning of Selection Sunday will be based mostly on those. For now, though, all we know is that BYU has accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl.)

So, without further ado, here are this week’s bowl projections:

College Football Playoff

Fiesta Bowl Sat, Dec 28, 4:00 PM LSU vs Georgia
Peach Bowl Sat, Dec 28, 8:00 PM Ohio State vs Clemson

 

This is simple enough. No. 1 plays No. 4, and No. 2 plays No. 3. The committee will ensure that the No. 1 team is not given a geographic disadvantage, so LSU will not be forced to play Georgia in Atlanta.

The times for these matchups are flexible and not yet set, but given that Ohio State vs Clemson will be the far bigger draw, I expect that to be the game given primetime billing.

Next… NY6 and other Big Ten bowls

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Week 13 CFP Bubble Watch: Georgia’s resume is legit

With just three weeks left in the college football season, let’s look at the resumes for those still in College Football Playoff contention.

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. If you’ve been reading through my Eliminator articles, you’d know that I still count 12 teams with a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. (And if you haven’t been reading them, please feel free to go back to them.)

Now that teams have played enough games, we can get a real look at every team’s resume. So, for the 12 teams still alive, I am going to present all of the resumes to you. We’re going to look at every resume so that we can compare what positives and negatives each team has. It’s the easiest and best way to understand what each team is bringing to the table in the College Football Playoff discussion.

How this works

Let’s go over what I’m looking at and why.

Quality of wins

For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between No. 24 and No. 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (CFP, AP, or Amway Coaches), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. Moreover, it just makes sense. The committee is aware of who is a good team and what counts as a win of decent quality, even if that team didn’t quite make it into the rankings.

I also split up every game each team has played into different groups. The groupings are important. First of all, I focus on Top 10 and Top 25 wins. These are, obviously, the quality wins. Next, I’m looking for teams in the Top 40. These are solid wins and deserve respect. The next group is teams somewhere between 41st and 80th in FBS. These are mediocre teams–they are games that any Playoff contender should win, but could in theory lose on an off day. Everyone outside the Top 80 is a complete cupcake game, and should be valued as a negative. To determine where each team is and who is outside the Top 80, I use a collection of computer rankings that focus on different things (e.g. Sagarin and Anderson) to get broad perspectives on who is a cupcake and who isn’t.

The selection committee has consistently mentioned “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric over the past few years, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one–there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Buffalo or Western Kentucky)–the committee cares about it, so we have to as well.

Offensive and defensive performance

I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.
Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.

SOS range

The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, especially as different rankings favor different things. They do, however, give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is. Keep in mind, it’s still a little early in the season, so the different SOS methodologies could bring up radically different results. Ranges could still be wide in some cases, but in general they should narrow over the next few weeks.

Next… Teams that control their own destinies

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