Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post. In short, I ask myself a simple question: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, I’ll eliminate those teams. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.
There are still plenty of scenarios that can play out over the next two weeks, but we are so close to chaos, and every team remaining in contention can still back its way in. I only eliminated Penn State this week, and only because the wins over Pitt and Indiana got significantly worse. Penn State now only has two quality wins (Iowa and Michigan), which isn’t enough to overcome two losses, even two really good ones.
On the other hand, I didn’t eliminate Oregon. The Ducks could also only have two ranked wins (Utah and USC), but they would also be a conference champion. Oregon’s schedule is also a bit better top-to-bottom. Oregon, though, has no real shot. However, we need so little to get real chaos. If Auburn beats Alabama and Les Miles has one more trick up his sleeve next week, we could be stuck with three undefeated P5 teams and zero one-loss teams. If that happens–and remember, it only really takes chalk plus three upsets (Auburn over Alabama, Kansas over Baylor or Oklahoma State over Oklahoma, then an upset in the Big 12 Championship Game)–then we’re guaranteed a two-loss Playoff team. It won’t be Penn State. It would probably be Georgia if the SEC Championship Game is close. But it could still be Oregon.
And, of course, plenty of other chaos can still happen. Michigan–a team I’m still not sure if I was right to eliminate last week–could beat Ohio State. (If they do, the Wolverines could have Top 15 wins over Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Iowa, with two Top 10 losses.) Or Minnesota can beat Ohio State. LSU could lose one of its last two games, or maybe even both. Clemson has a rivalry game on the road–against a team that already beat Oklahoma. Chaos is coming for us. The only question is where.