Tag: CFP Eliminator

CFP Eliminator: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma the Playoff four

We make our final eliminations of the year in the College Football Playoff race, leaving LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, and Oklahoma as the Top 4

Welcome to the final edition of this year’s Eliminator. I explain the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post. In short, I ask myself a simple question: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, I’ll eliminate those teams. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.

Now that we are at the end of the season, though, there are no questions about winning out. Now the question is if four teams have superior resumes to everyone else. Some years, we are left with a bubble after the conference championship games. This year, we don’t have one. Our four Playoff teams are very clear. LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, and Oklahoma will be in the Playoff.

Week 14 Eliminations:

Team: Notes:
Baylor The Bears lost a second game and the Big 12 Championship, which will keep them out of the Playoff. The Sugar Bowl is a good consolation though.
Georgia A blowout loss to LSU ends the Playoff dreams.
Oregon The Ducks were eliminated before the week started. The gap to the top contenders was just too much to overcome.
Utah The Utes are 0-2 against ranked teams now, which won’t get a Playoff bid.
Wisconsin The Badgers fought hard and impressed against Ohio State, which likely earned a Rose Bowl berth. Not enough to get into the Playoff, though.

Next… Eliminations from earlier in the season

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3

Week 14 CFP Eliminator: Goodbye Bama

For the first time in the College Football Playoff era, the Alabama Crimson Tide have been eliminated from CFP contention.

Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post. In short, I ask myself a simple question: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, I’ll eliminate those teams. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.

This week was a historic moment in College Football Playoff Eliminator history. I have been writing or tweeting an Eliminator since the CFP began in 2014, and I have never before been able to tweet that Alabama was eliminated. Well, that changed this week. With two losses and no good wins at all, Alabama is out.

Even though there is a chance at chaos and a weak bubble, Alabama’s resume is just too weak. I haven’t eliminated Oregon and Wisconsin yet, even though there’s no real path for those two. The question is what happens if Clemson loses to Virginia in the ACC Championship Game. Would the committee take an 11-2 Oregon team with a mediocre schedule and two ranked wins over a 12-1 Clemson team with no ranked wins? Almost certainly not. Would the committee take an 11-2 Wisconsin team with a strong schedule and three ranked wins (including one over Ohio State) over a 12-1 Clemson team? Probably not, but maybe.

What I know for sure, though, is that the committee would take a 12-1 Clemson team with no resume over an 11-2 Alabama team with no resume. Add to that that the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 champions are guaranteed to finish ahead of Alabama (as are Ohio State and LSU, even with losses this week), and Alabama is done. No path remains to the No. 4 slot. Thus, for the first time in College Football Playoff history, Alabama is eliminated.

Next … What teams are still alive?

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4

Week 13 CFP Eliminator: On the brink of chaos

Our CFP Eliminator is counting down the teams still in the College Football Playoff picture. With only two weeks to go, 12 teams remain.

Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post. In short, I ask myself a simple question: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, I’ll eliminate those teams. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.

There are still plenty of scenarios that can play out over the next two weeks, but we are so close to chaos, and every team remaining in contention can still back its way in. I only eliminated Penn State this week, and only because the wins over Pitt and Indiana got significantly worse. Penn State now only has two quality wins (Iowa and Michigan), which isn’t enough to overcome two losses, even two really good ones.

On the other hand, I didn’t eliminate Oregon. The Ducks could also only have two ranked wins (Utah and USC), but they would also be a conference champion. Oregon’s schedule is also a bit better top-to-bottom. Oregon, though, has no real shot. However, we need so little to get real chaos. If Auburn beats Alabama and Les Miles has one more trick up his sleeve next week, we could be stuck with three undefeated P5 teams and zero one-loss teams. If that happens–and remember, it only really takes chalk plus three upsets (Auburn over Alabama, Kansas over Baylor or Oklahoma State over Oklahoma, then an upset in the Big 12 Championship Game)–then we’re guaranteed a two-loss Playoff team. It won’t be Penn State. It would probably be Georgia if the SEC Championship Game is close. But it could still be Oregon.

And, of course, plenty of other chaos can still happen. Michigan–a team I’m still not sure if I was right to eliminate last week–could beat Ohio State. (If they do, the Wolverines could have Top 15 wins over Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Iowa, with two Top 10 losses.) Or Minnesota can beat Ohio State. LSU could lose one of its last two games, or maybe even both. Clemson has a rivalry game on the road–against a team that already beat Oklahoma. Chaos is coming for us. The only question is where.

Next … What teams are still alive?

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4