Tag: 2022 fantasy football tips

IDP fantasy football sleepers for 2022

Late-round fantasy picks for those playing in IDP leagues.

Fantasy football individual defensive player (IDP) leagues aren’t for everyone, but if a new experience is in your 2022 wheelhouse (because, why not?), having a few sleepers and breakouts in your back pocket is a great place to start.

IDP leagues tend to work counterintuitively, especially in the secondary. Star defensive backs, like Jalen Ramsey or Darius Slay, often don’t get thrown at enough to rack up the necessary counting stats to comparatively shine in fantasy. Ramsey, for example, is arguably the best corner in the game and rates as a low-end No. 2 fantasy defensive back — playable, but hardly the superstar impact we see in real life.

Identifying players that will get picked on by offensive coordinators is a good place to start, and understanding matchups is imperative, particularly once we start setting lineups.

Linebackers are the engine powering an IDP lineup. Aside from a handful of linemen and safeties, few defensive players will score anywhere close to even midrange ‘backers. As a result, many leagues are moving away from the old-fashioned tackle-heavy scoring standard and implementing bonus points for sack specialists and ball hawks to more closely align the positions.

As with non-IDP leagues, knowing your scoring system is essential in recognizing which players to target. We will focus on the classic scoring design, unless otherwise noted.

Fantasy football IDP player rankings

Defensive linemen | Linebackers | Defensive backs

Fantasy football preview: RB James Cook, Bills

Just how big of a role will we see from the rookie?

While most of the focus with the Buffalo Bills’ potent offense has been on quarterback Josh Allen and the passing game, the front office has invested a trio of Day 2 picks in the backfield over the last four years. Running back Devin Singletary was the first, being selected 74th overall in 2019, followed by Zack Moss (86th in 2020), and most recently James Cook, who was drafted with the 63rd pick back in April.

That type of asset outlay demonstrates that the Bills are committed to featuring a dangerous ground attack to complement Allen’s dual skill set. To date, neither Singletary nor Moss have put together big years since entering the league, though the former is coming off his best season to date, amassing 1,098 total yards and eight touchdowns; Moss, meanwhile, has appeared in 26 of a possible 33 games in his two years, and he finished 2021 with 542 total yards and five scores.

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Against that backdrop it’s easy to see why people are excited about Cook — it also doesn’t hurt that his older brother, Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook, is among the best the league has to offer. The Georgia product was viewed as one of the top backs in this year’s class, and his skills as a receiver out of the backfield were a big reason why. He’s on the smaller side, though, and doesn’t appear suited to the heavy usage his brother has seen in Minnesota.

At this point, it looks like Singletary will be the lead back, getting most of his work on early downs. That leaves Moss and Cook to battle it out for the No. 2/receiving role. While Moss may hold that spot early on, it seems likely that Cook will overtake him at some point; after all, the lack of development from Moss is part of the reason the Bills felt compelled to select another back early on.

There is one wild card: Duke Johnson. The veteran has over 300 career receptions and played very effectively in a five-game stint with the Miami Dolphins last year, totaling 371 yards and three TDs. If the coaching staff feels Cook (or Moss) isn’t ready, they could plug Johnson into that slot, at least initially. Speaking of the slot, expect to see Cook flexed into that role at times to utilize his athleticism for mismatches, but such a role is hardly reliable.

Fantasy football outlook

Without question, Cook is the shiny object in Buffalo’s backfield. Singletary has never broken out the way fantasy owners hoped he would, which often leads to draft-day backlash, and Moss has done little to endear himself in his two years with the club.

Still, Singletary deserves to be the first of the Bills RBs drafted, as a midrange RB3, while Cook is better suited as your fourth back with tangible upside, particularly in PPR. You can stay clear of Moss.

Can Zach Wilson make strides in fantasy football after knee surgery?

Escaping serious injury, can Wilson regroup in time to make a strong push in Year 2?

Already under the microscope following a tough debut campaign, New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (knee) sustained a torn meniscus and a bone bruise during the club’s preseason opener on Friday, Aug. 12. The initial prognosis was for the BYU product to miss between two and four weeks, though head coach Robert Saleh wouldn’t put a firm timetable on the recovery process. Wilson underwent successful arthroscopic knee surgery on Tuesday, Aug. 15.

One thing that’s sure to be in the back of the front office’s minds is the sprained MCL Wilson had as a rookie, which happened to the same knee as his most recent injury. Saleh has already indicated that the Jets won’t rush him back onto the field, and the recurrent issue in his right knee could certainly push out his return past the original timeline.

While word is all went smoothly with the procedure, it’s hard to imagine the Jets won’t turn to backup Joe Flacco to lead them into Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens as the team will want Wilson eased back into action. That report was already making the rounds on Tuesday in the immediate aftermath of Wilson’s surgery.

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Although Wilson dodged a more serious injury, there could still be some concern about how the team might adjust in terms of having him run around — he didn’t run a lot last season, but he was effective when he did, posting a 29-185-4 line on the ground, which was good for 6.4 yards per carry. After hurting his knee at the end of a seven-yard scramble last Friday, the coaches might drill into him to stay in the pocket and not risk his twice-injured knee.

Depending on the length of the injury, New York’s passing game might get a bit of a short-term bump with the more experienced Flacco under center. Wide receivers Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson are both draftable commodities, with Moore as a fringe WR3 and the rookie Wilson as late-round depth in the WR5 area. Of course, if we’re only talking about a week or two, which seems likely, the change is unlikely to make more than a minor ripple.

Fantasy football outlook

Wilson was already on the outskirts of QB2 territory before the injury, and even that placement was due in large to what, at least on paper, is a talented group of receivers at his disposal. Since he wasn’t being drafted as a fantasy starter, his season outlook doesn’t change. If you have a reliable, high-end QB1, and want to wait until the later rounds to secure your backup, Wilson’s upside could fit the bill.

Is it time to draft Saquon Barkley as a top running back again?

Going as RB12, how much higher should Barkley be going in fantasy drafts?

Back in 2018, New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley amassed 2,028 total yards and 15 touchdowns en route to being named the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. That feels like an awfully long time ago now. A high-ankle sprain cost him three games during his sophomore campaign, but it was the torn ACL he suffered in Week 2 of 2020 that may have permanently altered his career trajectory.

Barkley managed to return for the season opener last year, but he averaged just 2.6 yards per carry in Week 1, which marked the first of six times in 2021 that he’d post fewer than 3.5 YPC in a game. He seemed to be running a bit more effectively as the calendar turned to October, but a sprained ankle on Oct. 10 put him on the shelf for more than a month.

Upon his return Barkley was used judiciously, topping 20 touches in a game just once — that came in Week 16 against the Chicago Bears when he ran for a season-best 102 yards (his lone outing of more than 65 yards), though it’s worth noting that came in 26-point loss where the team only allowed then-quarterback Mike Glennon to throw 11 times, so he was running against soft fronts.

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Much has changed since that miserable January afternoon, including the hiring of new head coach Brian Daboll, who spent the previous four seasons running the Buffalo Bills’ potent offense and oversaw the development of quarterback Josh Allen. On paper, he should be a marked improvement over outgoing offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, though despite coaching upgrades there are still myriad question marks on the field.

Chief among them are the development of Daniel Jones, who has done little in his first three seasons to suggest he’s a legit QB1 at this level, and the health of Barkley, the one-time explosive back that’ll be nearly two years removed from his knee injury when the 2022 season kicks off on Sept. 11.

At this stage, the level of concern with Barkley must be high. He’s battled injuries in three of his four NFL campaigns, and he barely even flashed his pre-injury form in 203 combined touches last season — to that end, the Penn State product didn’t have a run of more than 13 yards over the final five games, and on those rare instances where he’d break one off it wasn’t sustained (e.g., in Week 2 he had a 41-yard run against Washington and finished the day with 57 yards on 13 carries).

Fantasy football outlook

Daboll’s system may be best known most recently for passing success in Buffalo, but this same offensive design produced top-11 ground attacks six of eight seasons under his guidance. Five of those years resulted in no fewer than the sixth-most rushing attempts.

Arguably the biggest thing working in Barkley’s favor is the lack of depth behind him, meaning the ground game should sink or swim with No. 26. At a minimum, opportunity equals value. To his credit, he has been dynamic in the offseason and is finally healthy.

While he feels overvalued as a No. 1 with an ADP of RB12, Barkley should be given every chance to produce at that level. Whether he’s still capable is unclear, and that’s what makes him such a risky selection in the early rounds. Given the overall volatility at the position, his receiving skills, and a drastic upgrade in the coaching department, we can’t argue if you wish to take the plunge.

Fantasy football spotlight: WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers

How will the third-year receiver fare in a Trey Lance-led offense?

Few teams have as many fantasy football questions surrounding their offenses as the San Francisco 49ers. With the plan to move away from starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and go with the unproven, small-college talent in Trey Lance, the 49ers are anticipated to be one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. So how does that impact third-year wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk?

In two seasons, Aiyuk has teased at greatness but has yet to take the next step in terms of consistency. In 12 games as a rookie in 2020, Aiyuk caught 60 passes for 748 yards and five touchdowns. In what may have been a precursor of things to come for Deebo Samuel and the offensive play calling, Aiyuk rushed six times for 77 yards and two touchdowns.

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His production didn’t increase in 2021, but Aiyuk’s impact plays did. In 17 games, he caught 56 passes for 826 yards and five touchdowns. While he caught fewer passes, his 14.8-yard reception average was 2.3 yards more per catch, he saw his yards per target (9.8 yards) increase by two yards per target from his rookie season, catching 67 percent of passes thrown his way.

When looking at Aiyuk’s statistics, the biggest question was how his role changed when Samuel morphed into a hybrid wide receiver/running back. After being in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse during training camp last year, his role in the offense was minimal – in the first six games, he caught just nine passes for 96 yards and one touchdown. In his final 11 games, he caught 47 passes for 730 yards and four touchdowns, ranking 16th among wide receivers in PPR scoring formats and 13th in non-PPR formats in that span. That success has carried over into the start of his third season.

Fantasy football outlook

Aiyuk was the talk of 49ers training camp, catching everything in sight and winning almost every one-on-one battle he faced. While he isn’t the primary topic of conversation in San Francisco at the moment, Aiyuk is a player with a high ceiling for being a midround fantasy pick.

Most analysts see Aiyuk as a WR4 for understandable reasons. The 49ers have an unproven quarterback, an offense that is most successful when it’s running the ball and two players – Samuel and tight end George Kittle – who have received the lion’s share of passing targets. That checks a lot of negative boxes, but it shouldn’t override Aiyuk’s talent.

If the plan is to continue using Samuel as a dual-threat receiver and runner, it’s going to keep Aiyuk on the outside with the potential for more big downfield plays. He is still the clear No. 3 target behind Samuel and Kittle, but his ability to make plays deep downfield make him more of a midrange to low-end WR3 than a WR4. His role in the offense increased as the 2021 season went on and the 49ers started stringing together wins, and that should be the launch point for 2022 – even if there are a slew of questions about how the Lance-led offense will operate.

Fantasy football spotlight: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions

Following a strong close to 2021, can St. Brown pick up where he left off?

Of the 35 receivers selected during the 2021 NFL Draft, only one (Miami Dolphins’ Jaylen Waddle) caught more passes as a rookie than Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown — and the USC product was taken 106 spots after Waddle. St. Brown also finished third in receiving yards, again behind Waddle and the Cincinnati Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase, and tied for third in receiving touchdowns. There’s no way to view his 90-912-5 showing as anything other than an unqualified success.

While it’s tempting to expect second-year players to build on their debut campaign, St. Brown shouldn’t be viewed as a lock to exceed (or even match) his rookie numbers. For starters, it’s important to keep in mind just how much of his production came during the season’s final six weeks. During that stretch, he was targeted 67 times and accounted for 51 receptions, 560 yards, and five touchdowns. That means in his first 11 games, St. Brown posted a 39-352-0 line.

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You can’t simply chalk up his increased role to improved chemistry with quarterback Jared Goff, either, as St. Brown’s usage exploded when tight end T.J. Hockenson was lost for the season with a thumb injury. Hockenson is fully healthy now, and he does much of his work in those same underneath and intermediate areas as St. Brown.

Detroit has added more talent to the receiving corps, drafting Alabama’s Jameson Williams (knee) in the first round and signing veteran DJ Chark Jr. in free agency. They also picked up Josh Reynolds off waivers last November, and he returns with the benefit of a full offseason to learn the offense to go with his preexisting chemistry with Goff stemming from their time with the Los Angeles Rams. Running back D’Andre Swift will get his fair share of targets, too.

It’s unknown when Williams will make his NFL debut as he’s currently working his way back from a torn ACL suffered in January, but once he does the Lions will suddenly have a deep, talented group of pass catchers — something that wasn’t even close to true coming into 2021, when you could make a strong case that Detroit had the worst group of wideouts in the NFL.

Fantasy football outlook

So, where does all that leave St. Brown? It’s hard to say. Hockenson seems the biggest threat to the second-year receiver’s usage as both project as possession options. Then again, Hockenson and Chark have had trouble staying healthy, and Williams’ return date is unknown.

Still, viewing St. Brown as more than a midrange WR3 seems a bit aggressive, even for PPR leagues. He also has the look of a possible “sell high” candidate early on as he’s someone whose role may decrease as the season wears on. Expect fewer receptions, which isn’t ever a great scenario for a receiver whose entire worth is based on volume.

Fantasy football spotlight: RB Melvin Gordon, Broncos

Just what kind of role and fantasy value can we expect from the veteran?

Denver Broncos running back Melvin Gordon is betting on himself again, and this time he’s hoping it turns out better than it did when he was the lead back for the Los Angeles Chargers.

The eight-year veteran famously held out the first four games of the 2019 season with the Chargers, demanding a contract extension. Instead, Austin Ekeler emerged as a legitimate rushing threat and Gordon ended up coming back humbled that his demands weren’t even considered. He left the Chargers at the end of the season to join division-rival Denver in 2020.

In his two seasons with the Broncos, Gordon rushed for 1,904 yards, caught 60 passes and scored 20 touchdowns – solid numbers for a player who has been in a timeshare – first with Phillip Lindsay and last year with rookie Javonte Williams. In 2021, both Gordon and Williams had 203 carries in the split backfield, but Gordon ran for 15 more yards (918) and scored three more touchdowns (10).

He was set to hit free agency in the offseason but agreed to an incentive-laden, one-year deal to return to an offense that is expected to be much more potent with new quarterback Russell Wilson coming to the team after two seasons with Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater at the helm of Denver’s offense.

While Wilson will add a winning pedigree missing in Denver’s pass game since Peyton Manning retired, the running game will still be a key to the Broncos offense. Even though the team is satisfied with the job Gordon has done, all signs point to Williams being the primary back in the offense and Gordon expected to take on a lesser role than the even split the two players had last season.

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Gordon has proved to be a solid player, but has never broken through to become an elite running back. Despite coming close several times, he has rushed for 1,000 yards only once in his career. However, he has averaged 4.6 yards a carry in two seasons with the Broncos and hasn’t shown signs of slowing down.

If both are healthy, Williams and Gordon will likely share the workload with the hot hand getting more playing time. Seeing as the Broncos are more invested in Williams for the future, Gordon may need Williams to be sidelined to be viewed as an every-week fantasy play.

Fantasy football outlook

Despite Gordon’s inability to reach the level of elite backs, you have to hand it to him for his ability to score touchdowns in close. In his last six seasons, he has tallied 67 touchdowns with season totals of 12-12-14-9-10-10, respectively. Even with his timeshare last season, he scored 10 touchdowns on just 231 touches.

Many will view him as a handcuff for Williams, who is sound RB2. The even timeshare should change somewhat this year but likely not enough to drop Gordon below an RB3 ranking. One can’t deny his ability to score touchdowns, and if he comes close to 10 TDs again, Gordon will have more value than just about anybody in the RB3 category.

Fantasy football injury outlook: QB Joe Burrow, Bengals

Where does Burrow stand in his recovery process?

Considering that Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (appendix) entered camp last year coming off a torn ACL that had halted his rookie campaign 10 games in, the news that the ascending superstar had undergone an appendectomy in late July feels like a minor inconvenience. Still, it’s another setback physically for a young quarterback who already suffered two knee injuries, including a sprained MCL during the team’s Super Bowl loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

Head coach Zac Taylor indicated the surgery went “smoothly,” but as of yet there has been no timeline given by anyone within the organization — Burrow’s father, Jim, said that his son would be back “in a few weeks” during a podcast appearance earlier this week, for whatever that’s worth. He did some light throwing on Monday, Aug. 8, which represented his first time picking up a ball since the surgery, and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan indicated that Burrow was feeling better.

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For comparison, Rams quarterback John Wolford had the same procedure done on Aug. 6, 2021, and he was practicing in full by Aug. 19. While Burrow won’t hit that mark, there appears to be no concern about the speed of his recovery. With their Week 1 meeting against the Pittsburgh Steelers still more than a month away, it seems unlikely that the LSU alum will miss games because of it.

Although the team would doubtlessly like to have Burrow in camp, notching reps and knocking the rust off, bear in mind his top three receivers from last season all return, and the team played into February — both of which work in his favor. Even a week or two of preparation leading into their meeting with the Steelers should be adequate to get Joe Shiesty ready to roll.

Fantasy football outlook

Coming off a breakout sophomore season, Burrow appears poised to join the game’s elite signal callers. Given there is no long-term concern following his surgery, there’s no reason to reassess Burrow’s value as less than a midrange QB1 for 2022.

Fantasy football injury outlook: QB Matthew Stafford, Rams

Just how concerned should you be with Stafford’s ailing elbow?

Twelve months ago, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (elbow) unfairly carried the label of someone that couldn’t get it done in big moments after playing a dozen seasons with the Detroit Lions and never winning a playoff game. Now, he’s the leader of the defending Super Bowl champions. Without questions to be asked about his ability to play his best in the biggest spots, the focus has now turned to his physical well-being.

It’s been about a week now since reports started surfacing that Stafford was dealing with a case of “bad tendinitis” in his throwing elbow, one that has caused the team to back off the veteran’s reps in camp and take some additional time to rest the injury. In the aftermath, Stafford has downplayed the severity of the issue, referring to it as “irritating” or “soreness,” and he said recently that he believed he could still “make any throw [he] wanted.”

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As we sit here in early August, there doesn’t seem to be huge cause for concern. Stafford played in all 21 games last year, including playoffs, on a run that stretched into February. At 34 and with 13 NFL seasons under his belt, there’s zero reason for the team or player to prioritize preparation over rest — his former NFC North running mate, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, just this week called playing a series in preseason games a “waste.”

Still, when head coach Sean McVay is using phrases like “tricky deal” and labeling it as “abnormal” for a quarterback it can’t be completely dismissed. One of the things that set Stafford apart from his predecessor, current Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff, was his ability to attack anywhere on the field. There could be a trickle-down effect on the Rams’ passing attack if the elbow issue lingers into the regular season and affects what he can do between the white lines.

Reading the tea leaves, it’s clear there’s some level of trepidation on the team’s side. If there wasn’t, Stafford would be out there building chemistry with newcomers like wide receiver Allen Robinson rather than being limited to individual work. Stafford has proven his toughness over the years to be sure, but playing through injury and playing effectively through injury aren’t necessarily the same thing — just look at what now-Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson went through upon returning from his finger injury. Would LA’s offense revert to Goff levels with a diminished Stafford at the helm?

Fantasy football outlook

Until we hear something more concrete that sounds like Stafford will in fact miss games, there’s no real reason to adjust his ranking. Even with no running ability to speak of, Stafford a sound QB1, but, for now, the news of his elbow woes simply makes acquiring a quality second option more important.

Fantasy football outlook: WR DeVonta Smith, Eagles

How does A.J. Brown’s arrival impact Smith’s fantasy prospects?

As a rookie last season, Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith had the tale of two seasons. He finished the year with 64 catches for 916 yards and five touchdowns – leading Eagles receivers in each category. However, his numbers from the first half of the season were a stark contrast to the second half.

The Eagles started the year as the team looked to have balance between the pass and run. In his first seven games, quarterback Jalen Hurts threw 34 or more passes in five of them. Over the final eight games Hurts played, the Eagles threw more than 30 passes just once and averaged fewer than 24 throws a game. That change in offensive philosophy brought down what started as very strong numbers for Smith.

In those first seven games, Smith caught more than five passes in three of them and was targeted more than seven times in four games. In the final 10 games, he was never targeted more than seven times — in half of those games he was targeted five times or less.

The Eagles finished 2021 with the league’s top-ranked rushing offense, which led to success from the team perspective (they went 7-3 in the final 10 games). This hurt the receiving corps in the fantasy realm because, aside from Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, Philly didn’t have a legitimate receiving threat to take the pressure off them. That changed in a big way this offseason.

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When Tennessee failed to get star receiver A.J. Brown signed to a long-term deal, he was traded for Philadelphia’s first-round draft pick. The arrival of Brown brings a much-heralded player to the Eagles offense and will give Hurts an elite weapon to go along with Smith and Goedert.

Many have theorized Smith’s production will suffer as a result of Brown coming on board. While that may be true in terms of target share, it doesn’t mean that Smith’s fantasy value will plummet. As is often the case, when an elite receiver joins a team, defensive attention is heightened for that player. Linebackers drop in coverage on his side of the field to take away throwing lanes and safeties roll over the top to provide double coverage.

Last year that sort of defensive pressure was applied to Smith. This year, it will be Brown more times than not, which will leave Smith single-covered much more often and likely drawing the No. 2 cornerback from an opposing defense as opposed to the No. 1 guy he faced so often in 2021.

Fantasy football outlook

Note: Smith has recently missed practices with a minor groin injury, but it currently shouldn’t be of much concern in fantasy.

The arrival of Brown definitely impacts Smith’s fantasy ranking, but it doesn’t drop him too far because of the potential for more impact plays he could produce by playing with greater efficiency. View Brown as a high-end WR2 because of his ability to win 50/50 balls, especially in the red zone. Smith is a midrange to low-end WR3 who could post numbers as good or better than last season because the opportunity to have mismatches with single coverage. Brown’s arrival doesn’t help Smith’s fantasy value, but it doesn’t kill it, either.