Category: strategy & tips

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 12

Fresh off a bye, the Colts face a pass-friendly fantasy matchup to exploit.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 12

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 4-7-0
All-time record: 23-38-3 (38.3%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74.7 41.7 20.8 150.3 66.5 16.1 25.5 88 121.4 138.8
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+ A+

Last week, Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley was the selection and made it three straight successful recommendation. He turned in a monster effort after failing to reach seven PPR points in three of the previous four games. Scratching and clawing my way back to getting even, this week’s choice is a former Jaguar who is trying to navigate a divisional foe to victory over a member of the NFC South.

Indianapolis Colts QB Gardner Minshew vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minshew returns from the bye with wide receiver Josh Downs no longer on the injury report, which helps his odds. Another factor working in the quarterback’s favor is that Tampa Bay has been strong against running backs, which should lead to a bit more passing from Indy.

In addition to Downs, who is having a strong rookie campaign, Minshew will have Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and tight end Kylen Granson available. The Bucs have given up a fair amount of work to TEs so far, and the position has been rocked by receivers not only on the year but even more so in the last few weeks. This matchup for wideouts sits 60.4% easier than the league average in the last three weeks, 33.8% over the last five, and 24.1% on the season. That kind of success rarely occurs without a strong quarterback performance.

[lawrence-related id=484769]

At home, Indianapolis battles a Bucs defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game (23.2) to quarterbacks in 2023. Over the last five weeks, no defense has given up more points to the position (28.2). In the past three contests, we’ve seen Brock Purdy (30.1) and C.J. Stroud (44.4) explode vs. Tampa as injuries and a lack of pressure have played major roles in the aerial success.

Every passer but rookie Will Levis posted at least 250 yards and 22 or more fantasy points following the Buccaneers’ Week 5 bye. Three of those guys went for 30 or more points, and Josh Allen is the only name on that list anyone drafted as a fantasy QB1.

As long as Minshew puts the ball up 30 times, he’s a decent bet to finish as a fantasy starter this week. The major risk at play here is he hasn’t done either of those things in the last three games.

My projection: 21-of-31 attempts, 277 yards, 2 TDs, 1 rush, 7 yards (22.6 fantasy points)

Daily Fantasy Domination: Week 12 Thanksgiving Edition

Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 12 Saturday Slate DFS fantasy football

As you sit down to enjoy your holiday meal, think back on all the things for which you are thankful. For me, it’s a veritable feast of options to choose from that includes potentially having six above-average QBs and five legitimate TEs. Unfortunately, that means Sunday’s leftovers are gonna suck.

Thanksgiving Day Slate: recommended DFS lineups

DK Lineup: QB Dak Prescott ($6.8k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($8.7k), RB AJ Dillon ($5.4k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($8.7k), WR Michael Gallup ($3.7k), WR Curtis Samuel ($3.6k), TE George Kittle ($6.0k), FLEX Jake Ferguson ($3.9k), DST Detroit Lions ($3.2k)

FD Lineup: QB Dak Prescott ($8.5k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($9.8k), RB Zach Charbonnet ($5.8k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($9.2k), WR Romeo Doubs ($6.2k), WR Brandin Cooks ($5.7k), TE Jake Ferguson ($6.1k), FLEX Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5.4k), DST Seattle Seahawks ($3.3k)

FB Lineup: QB Dak Prescott ($6.9k), RB Christian McCaffrey ($8.8k), RB AJ Dillon ($5.0k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($8.2k), WR Romeo Doubs ($4.7k), WR Brandin Cooks ($4.1k), TE George Kittle ($6.3k), FLEX Jake Ferguson ($4.3k), FLEX Brock Purdy ($6.2k)

Quarterback

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Dak Prescott $6,800 $8,500
Jared Goff $6,300 $7,800
Sam Howell $6,200 $7,300
Brock Purdy $6,100 $7,700
Geno Smith $5,600 $6,600
Jordan Love $5,500 $7,200
Drew Lock $5,000 $6,600

Weekly strategy – Dak Prescott gets the easiest matchup. He is the easy QB1 choice. That said, only Sam Howell‘s matchup concerns me. Whoever starts for Seattle would be my favorite punt play.

Pay to Play

Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. WAS ($6,800 DK, $8,500 FD) Washington just allowed Tommy DeVito to throw for three TDs. When that happens, you should just fold your franchise. The Commanders also have allowed multiple scores to “studs” like Desmond Ridder, Geno Smith, and Tyrod Taylor. Over his last four games, Prescott has 14 TDs. He will add four more here.

Stay Away

Sam Howell, Commanders @ DAL ($6,200 DK, $7,300 FD) Many articles have highlighted that Howell has more passing yards than any other QB. These articles artificially inflate this number since he has not yet had his bye, and since many QBs have missed games because of injury. Still, he has seven games with greater than 250 passing yards. That will be his ceiling this week as only one QB has topped that mark versus Dallas. He will still account for a pair of TDs, but he is the worst option on this slate.

value play

Brock Purdy, Niners @ SEA ($6,100 DK, $7,700 FD) The return of Trent Williams has coincided with back-to-back three TD performances for Purdy. Seattle’s pass defense ranks in the middle of the pack, but the only competent QBs that they have faced are Jared Goff, Sam Howell, and Lamar Jackson. Purdy will chew them up.

Running Back

Player DraftKings FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey $8,700 $9,800
Jahmyr Gibbs $6,800 $8,200
Tony Pollard $6,700 $7,200
David Montgomery $6,300 $7,800
Kenneth Walker III $6,200 $6,500
Aaron Jones $6,000 $6,600
Brian Robinson Jr. $5,900 $6,700
AJ Dillon $5,400 $6,600
Zach Charbonnet $5,300 $5,800
Chris Rodriguez Jr. $4,600 $4,700
Rico Dowdle $4,600 $5,100
Antonio Gibson $4,600 $5,200
DeeJay Dallas $4,400 $4,800
Elijah Mitchell $4,200 $4,900

Weekly strategy – Christian McCaffrey is expensive, but he is a must-own RB1. Both Detroit backs are the pivots. You may just want to choose one of them for RB2. The only other options to consider for RB2 are AJ Dillon and Brian Robinson, Jr. This is clearly the weakest position on the slate, so spend up here.

Pay to Play

Christian McCaffrey, Niners @ SEA ($8,700 DK, $9,800 FD) McCaffrey took only one week off on his TD streak. Last week, he returned to the end zone against an elite Tampa defense; Seattle is not an elite defense. They are barely a competent defense. Over their last three games, the Seahawks have allowed six RB scores. This is not a, “Will CMAC score game?” This is a, “How many times will CMAC score game?”

Stay Away

Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks vs. SF ($5,300 DK, $5,800 FD) At a discount price, many owners will flock to Charbonnet. He will see a lead back’s volume with Kenneth Walker III (knee) likely out, but good luck running against this defense. Charbonnet’s best hope is that he continues to get peppered with targets.

Value Play

Brian Robinson, Jr., Commanders @ DAL ($5,900 DK, $6,700 FD) The injury to Antonio Gibson (toe) allowed Robinson to post a second-consecutive 100-yard game. His bell-cow role will probably continue in the short week. You probably think that Dallas is strong against the run. They are, but they have slipped as their linebacker injuries continue to mount.

Wide Receiver

Player DraftKings FanDuel
CeeDee Lamb $8,700 $9,200
Amon-Ra St. Brown $8,500 $8,500
Brandon Aiyuk $7,000 $7,800
DK Metcalf $6,500 $7,000
Tyler Lockett $6,000 $6,600
Deebo Samuel $5,900 $6,700
Terry McLaurin $5,400 $6,500
Romeo Doubs $5,000 $6,200
Jahan Dotson $4,600 $5,700
Brandin Cooks $4,500 $5,700
Christian Watson $4,300 $5,600
Jayden Reed $4,200 $5,900
Jaxon Smith-Njigba $4,100 $5,400
Michael Gallup $3,700 $5,200
Curtis Samuel $3,600 $5,600
Josh Reynolds $3,500 $5,500
Jameson Williams $3,400 $5,300
Dontayvion Wicks $3,300 $5,000
Jauan Jennings $3,300 $4,800
Jamison Crowder $3,200 $4,600
Jalen Tolbert $3,100 $4,700
Byron Pringle $3,000 $4,700
Donovan Peoples-Jones $3,000 $4,300
Dyami Brown $3,000 $4,700
Jake Bobo $3,000 $4,600
Kalif Raymond $3,000 $4,600
KaVontae Turpin $3,000 $4,500

Weekly strategy – CeeDee Lamb is the top WR1 option. The only other WR1 option is Amon-Ra St. Brown. Unfortunately, it will be hard to afford both of them. WR2 is much deeper. Choose between Romeo Doubs, Brandin Aiyuk, DK Metcalf, or Brandin Cooks. You also may want to use one of them at WR3. If not, you can use Jaxon Smith-Njigba or one of the reserve Commanders or Packers.

Pay to Play

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys vs. WAS ($8,700 DK, $9,200 FD) Even on a down week, Lamb posted his ninth double-digit PPR game of the year. He also added his fifth TD in his last four games. Stack this powerhouse duo and run it back with either Curtis Samuel or Jahan Dotson at WR3.

Stay Away

Terry McLaurin, Commanders @ DAL ($5,400 DK, $6,500 FD) WR1s have struggled vs. this defense. Only five have reached double-digit PPR points against Dallas. Despite a ton of targets, McLaurin has failed to reach that plateau in his last two games. There are better options at this price point.

Value Play

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks vs. SF ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD) Smith-Njigba has five or more targets in eight of 10 games. This week, the Seahawks will need to throw the ball. Expect JSN to rack up short-yardage receptions as they realize they can’t move the ball on the ground. He may see even more dump-off passes if Drew Lock starts.

Tight End

Player DraftKings FanDuel
George Kittle $6,000 $7,200
Sam LaPorta $5,200 $6,500
Jake Ferguson $3,900 $6,100
Logan Thomas $3,500 $5,200
Luke Musgrave $3,300 $5,000
Noah Fant $2,700 $4,700
Colby Parkinson $2,500 $4,400
Josiah Deguara $2,500 $4,300
Tucker Kraft $2,500 $4,300
Will Dissly $2,500 $4,500

Weekly strategy – George Kittle has been white hot. He is the top option here. Luke Musgrave and Jake Ferguson are the top pivots. Sam LaPorta feels like a trap.

Pay to Play

George Kittle, Niners @ SEA ($6,000 DK, $7,200 FD) Over his last four starts, Kittle is averaging 6-108-0.5. Last week, the Seahawks kept Tyler Higbee in check. That said, over their prior three games, they allowed an average of 8.6-89 to the position. 

Stay Away

Sam LaPorta, Lions vs. GB ($5,200 DK, $6,500 FD) LaPorta has posted back-to-back duds. He also has topped five receptions only three times. Typically, at a thin position, he is a TE1. However, on a loaded slate, his performance doesn’t match his price. Let other owners overpay for his eight points while you pivot elsewhere. 

Value Play

Jake Ferguson, Cowboys vs. WAS ($3,900 DK, $6,100 FD) Last week, Ferguson was vultured of a TD by Luke Schoonmaker. This was a fluke as Ferguson has more targets over the last two weeks than Schoonmaker has on the year. Prior to last week, Ferguson had scored in three straight. He gets back on the horse here. 

Vegas odds chart for daily fantasy football play: Week 11

A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 11 sports betting and DFS action.

A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 11.

These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.

Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook

NFL Odds: Week 11

OFF = No odds currently listed.

[betwidget_betmgm]

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 11

In a season filled with ups and downs, expect a return to fantasy utility from this wideout.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 11

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 3-7-0
All-time record: 21-38-3 (36.3%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74.7 41.7 20.8 150.3 66.5 16.1 25.5 88 121.4
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+

Well, look at that … consecutive “wins” and a resounding one last week with the choice of Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith. Hopefully, this slight momentum builds and leads to a third straight week of successful prognostication!

Like Smith, this week’s selection is a universally owned receiver whose preseason expectations have overshadowed his actual production.

Jacksonville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley vs. Tennessee Titans

The former Atlanta Falcons receiver has been all over the map in 2023, and the last four games have seen Ridley post three lines with 26 offensive yards being his ceiling; a six-catch, 83-yarder headlines that stretch. He hasn’t scored since Week 4.

It hasn’t been all bad for Ridley in his first year as a Jaguar. He has four games with at least 11.8 PPR returns, and two of those outings were north of 20 points. Six of his nine appearances have seen at least seven targets sent Ridley’s way. His biggest issue has been wild inconsistency. The peaks and valleys have been dramatic, and when the vet has been bad, we’re talking four games with seven or fewer points. Some of the struggles can be pinned on erratic quarterback play, but difficult matchups have factored in a substantial manner.

The matchup is 14.9% easier to exploit than the league average on the year and 11.3% softer in the last five weeks. Tennessee having faced a pair of suspect passing games along the way (IND, ATL) has kept this from being an even stronger matchup rating.

There’s a quality opportunity to get on track this week vs. a Tennessee unit that has permitted wide receivers to average the 13th-most catches and 12th-most yards per game since Week 5 ended. A dozen squads have ceded TDs at a higher clip over that period. On the year, eight receivers have gone for at least 16 PPR points against the Titans, and Ridley should make it nine.

My projection: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 79 yards, 1 TD (20.9 PPR points)

Vegas odds chart for daily fantasy football play: Week 10

A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 10 sports betting and DFS action.

A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 10.

These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.

Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook

NFL Odds: Week 10

OFF = No odds currently listed.

[betwidget_betmgm]

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 10

A premier matchup has a struggling veteran poised to rebound in Week 10.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 10

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 2-7-0
All-time record: 20-38-3 (32.8%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74.7 41.7 20.8 150.3 66.5 16.1 25.5 88
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+

Last week’s selection of New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry was a risky proposition, but he came through to exceed the threshold and return close enough to the projected line to be considered a “win” for this article’s purposes.

This week, we train our focus on a floundering quarterback whose contributions to fantasy teams has been sorely lacking, but some fortunate gamers get a massive break in a week in which the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Jalen Hurts are on bye.

Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith vs. Washington Commanders

Following his breakout 2022 season, Smith has finished no better than QB8 in any contest this year, which came way back in Week 2. He has only three appearances with 20 or more fantasy points along the way, and managers who drafted him as a starter have suffered through no touchdowns in two of Smith’s last four outings.

The Seahawks have the necessary weapons to get the job done, and running back Kenneth Walker III (chest) is banged up. He has been on the injury report the last two weeks with various ailments, including a minor calf issue entering Week 8. Plus, Washington is respectable against running backs, and this defense is vastly weaker at slowing wide receivers.

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Smith should have ample time to throw, even though his line has given up the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL. Washington traded away its two most talented pass rushers, and this defense has applied pressure at the 12th-lowest rate in 2023.

The trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (hip) easily have the upper hand vs. a feeble secondary, particularly down the field as this group has faced the third-highest average depth per target. Teams don’t take that many deep shots without an obvious reward. With vertical specialists in Metcalf and JSN, Washington could give up several huge plays, even if Smith has a low-volume day.

Quarterbacks have posted at least 279 yards and two touchdowns in five of the last six contests against the Commanders, and this matchup is 32.3% better than the league average in that time frame. On the season, the matchup is even more favorable for Smith. Through nine showings, Washington has permitted 19 touchdown passes (T-1st) and the third-most fantasy points, on average. One in 16.7 attempts has found the end zone, and one in 10.4 completions went for six points. QBs have averaged 264.9 aerial yards over the course of 2023.

Smith has more or less been a fantasy anchor this year but is in a prime situation to exploit a plus matchup.

My projection: 23-of-35 attempts for 286 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 rushes for 6 yards (22.9 fantasy points)

Vegas odds chart for daily fantasy football play: Week 9

A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 9 sports betting and DFS action.

A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 9.

These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.

Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook

NFL Odds: Week 9

OFF = No odds currently listed.

[betwidget_betmgm]

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 9

Will this once-vaunted TE rise from the ashes to contribute line lineups this week?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 9

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-7-0
All-time record: 19-38-3

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74.7 41.7 20.8 150.3 66.5 16.1 25.5
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F-

This train wreck continues … the absolute worst part of it for me has been two of the last three weeks I simply chose the wrong player. In Week 6, I strongly debated taking Tyler Boyd, and last week I stupidly ignored my gut and took Jamaal Williams over Gabe Davis. So, let’s see if I can pick the right guy (Royce Freeman is my other strong lean) and put another W on the board …

New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry vs. Washington Commanders

I fully recognize this one is about as risky as they come, and it doesn’t do me any favors from the W-L perspective, because the odds definitely are stacked against this one coming to fruition.

Henry has not topped 9.1 PPR points or scored since Week 2, and the former Los Angeles Charger has no more than three targets in the last month of play. The chemistry with Mac Jones just hasn’t been there, and that’s a major concern in this recommendation.

However, necessity is the mother of invention, and the idea here is the loss of wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (knee) as well as the utter void of connection between Jones and JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Patriots are desperately in need of someone to step up in the passing game, so there’s a clear path to an increased target share for Henry.

Washington has totally flopped vs. the position in the last month. This matchup rates in the top eight for receptions and yardage per game as well as ease of TDs in relation to catches allowed since Week 3. Tight ends have averaged 5.8 receptions, 59.8 yards, and a TD every 7.3 grabs, good for 16.6 PPR points an outing. Only three teams have allowed more fantasy points per game in both primary scoring systems, and this is the fourth-most efficient matchup of the week.

[lawrence-related id=483661]

All four of the TDs against Washington have come in the last four weeks. In that time, Cole Kmet, Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, and Darren Waller all posted at least 136 PPR points, with the New York Giant finishing with 22.8 as the high-water mark. Washington presents a matchup rating that is 66.7% higher than the league average in the last three weeks and 31.7% better in the most recent five games.

Henry isn’t going to be a volume guy in this one, but he certainly could tack on another touchdown to that list, and a pair of scores isn’t out of reach. Play him if you’re backed into a corner, but this likely will be an all-or-nothing result.

My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 48 yards, 1 TD (15.8 PPR points)

Vegas odds chart for daily fantasy football play: Week 8

A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 8 sports betting and DFS action.

A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 8.

These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.

Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook

NFL Odds: Week 8

OFF = No odds currently listed.

[betwidget_betmgm]

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 8

Will this touchdown machine get his lost season back on track in Week 8?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 8

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-6-0
All-time record: 19-37-3

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55% 74.7% 41.7% 20.8% 150.3% 66.5% 16.1%
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F-

And here I thought Week 4 was rock bottom!

In Week 7, New York Giants wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson caught one of his two targets for 22 yards and that was it all she wrote. Darren Waller and Jalin Hyatt led the aerial game in targets, and Robinson posted his worst fantasy stat line since this rookie debut … just the way I drew it up.

My overall success rate of 32.2% would be a respectable MLB career hitting average, but it’s far too low for my liking when it comes to weekly fantasy prognostication, even on total flier calls. This week, the need to take a gamble is much lower with no teams on vacation, and the lack of byes means this recommendation is best utilized for daily fantasy action. However, if you’re in a bind or willing to risk a flex spot, there is merit to such a move.

New Orleans Saints RB Jamaal Williams at Indianapolis Colts

Williams suffered a hamstring injury in Week 2 that caused him to go on the Reserve/Injured list and cost the veteran four contests before returning in Week 7. He faced a quality Jacksonville defense last Sunday but failed to do much of anything, rushing just five times for 14 yards. He was on the field for a mere 22.2% of the offensive snaps and rushed once in the red zone but not at all inside of the 10-yard line. Williams wasn’t targeted for the second time in three outings.

He heads to Indianapolis for a date with one of the weakest defenses of the running back position, and we can view last week’s limited showing as the 28-year-old shaking off the rust.

[lawrence-related id=483321]

Alvin Kamara overcame a midweek illness but is coming off three straight showings with a 3.6 yards-per-carry average, which is quite a bit below the league average. Now, that’s not all his fault as the offensive line has battled some injuries and tough enough opponents to depress his numbers.

Kamara has seen no fewer than 25 utilizations in each game back from his suspension, and that’s just not a wise floor to maintain. New Orleans needs to get Williams more involved and compartmentalize their respective roles to a greater degree. Game flow, however, plays a pivotal role in that coming to fruition.

The Colts are not likely to put the Saints in an early hole that requires an abandonment of the running game, and that’s going to work in Williams’ favor. As long as this game is within, say, 10 points on the board at any time entering the fourth, New Orleans will pound the ball.

Indianapolis has surrendered massive numbers to running backs, especially in the last five weeks. This is the sixth-easiest opponent to face for rushing yardage per game since Week 2 ended, and only the Carolina Panthers have yielded touchdowns at a higher rate in relation to number of carries faced. One in every 18.6 attempts has found paydirt, and that has come against the fourth-most rushes per game. Six backs have posted at least 15.1 PPR points, and three of them a have scored multiple times on the ground.

My projection: 14 carries, 52 yards, 2 TDs, 1 target, 1 reception, 6 yards (18.8 PPR points)