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A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 11 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 11.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
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The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
We’re in Week 11 and with each passing week, more teams are going to join the list that will start looking as much to next year as finishing off the season, so this week’s focus is on those who have the most to play for in a good way.
This week’s picks include a pair of NFC West quarterbacks hitting Under their projected numbers, a pair of the highest-volume receivers doing what they do best, and a running back snapping an eight-game scoreless streak.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
The five smartest wagers to take to the pay window for Week 11.
As we head into the weekend before the schedule gets crazy Thanksgiving weekend (games on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday), we spread out this week’s picks to check a lot of boxes.
This week, we take the second-lowest Over/Under hitting Under, a division leader moving one step closer to clinching with a home win, a road underdog winning on the moneyline, one of the biggest favorites covering, and a Super Bowl reunion shootout.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Use our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up for the win.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
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Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green, KH – Kevin Hickey
The five smartest wagers to take to the pay window for Week 11.
There are some weeks that create separation and set the stage for the rest of the season moving forward. Week 11 of the 2023 season is one of those.
There are seven divisional games, including critical matchups between the Bengals-Ravens, Steelers-Browns, Jets-Bills and Seahawks-Rams. The week ends with a Super Bowl rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs. In between, there will be games that most of the winners stay alive in the playoff chase for another week and many of the losers take one step closer to turning out the lights on their season.
The Ravens have been on a scoring tear, which helps explain why they are a solid home favorite (3.5 points at -105 Bengals, -115 Ravens). However, the Bengals haven’t lost by more than three points to the Ravens since Joe Burrow‘s rookie season in 2020, so I like Cincy’s chances in a must-win game. Take the Bengals plus 3.5 points (-105).
The Steelers have been anemic on offense and bad on defense, yet they are 6-3. The Browns are without Deshaun Watson again, resulting in a microscopic Over/Under (33 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Even with their offensive struggles, Steelers games have hit Over this number in seven of nine games this season. Take Over 33 points (-110).
The Lions are huge favorites (7.5 points at -110 for both the Bears and Lions), which is understandable because five of Detroit’s last six wins have been by 14 or more points. Justin Fields is expected back, but he will be shaking off the rust and the Lions will take advantage. Take the Lions and lay 7.5 points (-110).
The Packers have lost five of their last six games and haven’t scored more than 20 points since Week 2. The Chargers are road favorites (3 points at -110 for both teams), and the only teams to hold them under 24 points were the Cowboys and Chiefs. Take the Chargers and lay 3 points (-110).
This is a gigantic spread (13.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Raiders have won two straight, but they were against the Giants and Jets. Miami’s home wins have come by 50, 15, 21 and 14 points. It may seem crazy, but this spread is in line with where it should be. Take the Dolphins and lay 13.5 points (-110).
One of the Giants two wins was a 14-7 victory over Washington. The Over/Under is low (37 points at -110 for both) but these two struggle to score more than 40 points when they play each other when healthy, much less with the injuries and trades that have weakened both teams. Take Under 37 points (-110).
The Cowboys are huge favorites (10.5 points at -110 for both teams) but have a reputation of not taking their feet off the gas when ahead. Their six wins include five that have been by 40, 20, 35, 23 and 32 points. The 1-8 Panthers won’t slow them down. Take the Cowboys and lay 10.5 points (-110).
The Jaguars are heavy favorites (6.5 points at +100 Titans, -120 Jaguars), and the investment to bet on the Jags seems to say this spread should be seven or more points. The Jaguars will rebound from their humbling loss last week and come back strong against a Titans team in transition. Take the Jaguars and lay 6.5 points (-110).
The Texans have been a surprise and are a big favorite (4.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Cardinals saw Kyler Murray return last week, and he should make the team more competitive. Houston is a great story, but five points may be too many to give away. Take the Cardinals plus 4.5 points (-110).
The Bucs have been inconsistent on offense, but the Over/Under indicates they will get shut down by the heavily favored 49ers (41.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). The 49ers are capable of scoring almost all these points by themselves, so the Bucs won’t have to supply too many points to top this number. Take Over 41.5 points (-110).
The Bills have lost three of their last four and lost to the Jets in Week 1, but Buffalo remains a big favorite (7 points at -110 for both teams). A lot of people have lost money showing confidence in Buffalo, but that won’t stop many of us this week. Take the Bills and lay 7 points (-110).
The Rams get Matthew Stafford back but are small home underdogs (1 point at -110 for both teams). The Rams hammered the Seahawks in Week 1 (30-13), but the Seahawks have the better, deeper roster and should get revenge. Take the Seahawks and lay 1 point (-110).
The Broncos have won three straight games, including wins over the Chiefs and Bills, but are small home favorites (2.5 points). The Vikings have won five straight games and are playing very good defense, which will cause Russell Wilson problems. Bad things happen when Wilson struggles. Take the Vikings on the moneyline (+115).
The Super Bowl rematch has two offenses capable of putting up a lot of points, which makes the Over/Under seem too low (45.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). All this game needs is for one offense to click. This game has the capability to be a shootout that blows by this number. Take Over 45.5 points (-110).
The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
This week we go running back-heavy, making three elite RB picks – two to hit over their appointed number and one going under. We also like an underachieving wide receiver to come in over his number and an emerging quarterback to score a touchdown that doesn’t involve passing.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
Five no-brainer bets to make in Week 11.
Sometimes betting on the NFL can get strange. If I was taking early action on bets – which are just as valid as those made at noon on Sunday – once the house meteorologist was consulted I would have taken the Buffalo Bills- Cleveland Browns game off the board.
It remained there until Thursday afternoon with an Over/Under of 43 points, anticipating epic bad weather. Then, the NFL announced the game was being moved to a domed stadium farther west along the Great Lakes in Detroit. Suddenly, the game is taken off the board. Seeing as I realized that possibility existed, it stuns me that the sportsbooks didn’t. Yet, no revised numbers were immediately available. I guess we’re seeing another week with the Bills of playing wait-and-see to place your bets.
A spin around the NFL’s best wagers to make for Week 11.
Part of betting is learning from your losses and learning your weaknesses. I’ve done both.
My Achilles’ heel is double-digit favorites. They should slap the taste out of the mouth of their opponent. Over the past four weeks, there have been seven games in which team has been favored by double-digits.
I’m 1-6 in those games.
Suffice to say, I will be betting the Over/Under on the one double-digit game this week. Learn from your mistakes and don’t repeat them…even if you believe this is the week the curse ends.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
The Packers saved their season by being desperate and throwing the ball. Given their banged up offensive line, that won’t continue for long. Tennessee is a three-point underdog at even money. I wouldn’t begrudge anyway effectively being given four points (three would be a push). The Titans’ only losses have been the Chiefs, Bills and Giants. The Packers aren’t in that class. Take the Titans on the moneyline +145)
The Rams are getting Matthew Stafford back, but won’t have Cooper Kupp, which is why the Saints are a solid favorite (3.5 points at -113 Rams, -107 Saints). The Rams beat the teams they’re better than (see the schedule), but I’m willing to give the Saints a chance to win and get more than a field goal as a hedge. Take the Rams plus 3.5 points (-113).
It seems like the Giants refuse to get respect from the oddsmakers who seemingly keep expecting the other shoe to drop. The Giants are small favorites (3 points at -109 Lions, -111 Giants). The Lions have lost to every team they’ve played with a record of better than .500. I’ll lay a field goal on that. Take the Giants and lay 3 points (-113).
The Bears have been a different team the last month since letting Justin Fields cut loose and run. The Falcons are a fluky team at home, which is why they’re favored (3.5 points at -119 Bears, -101 Falcons). Chicago has a chance to win this game if they let Fields run the RPO, but given a nice cushion is easier. Take the Bears plus 3.5 points (-119).
Seeing as I won’t touch 13 points (see above), all that leaves me is the Over/Under (42 points at -110 Over and Under). I believe the Ravens are capable of putting up 30. That doesn’t leave Baker Mayfield to do much late in the game. Take the Over (-110).
The perfect season is done because the Eagles shot themselves in the foot (wing, thigh and leg) Monday night. They’re solid road favorites (7 points at -108 Eagles, -112 Colts). Indy is overmatched at far too many positions. This could get ugly. Take the Eagles and lay 7 points (-108).
Who plays football in four to six feet of snow? Nobody. Right now, the Over/Under is acceptable (43 points at -110 for both). As we’ve learned in the NFL, games can be delayed or relocated. Both options are currently in play. I’ve attended a Tuesday night NFL game. The field will be clean – one way or another – when the game begins. Take the Over (-110).
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I don’t like this game. The Commanders are on a short week. Neither team has a quarterback that’s NFL-worthy. The Over/Under is small (41 points at -109 Over, -111 Under). I see a game where running the ball and field position are at a premium to keep it close late. Take the Under (-111).
This one could go either way. The only certainty is that a lot of points are not expected. The Over/Under is just 38 points – three points less than any other game. The Patriots are nominal favorites (3 points at -102 Jets, -118 Patriots). If a game is expected to be played tight to the vest, I tend to go Belichick in that scenario. Take the Patriots and lay 3 points (-118).
Both teams have been disappointments, but the Broncos defense has allowed 20 points just once – a loss to the Raiders in Week 3. Denver is a minimal home favorite (2.5 points at -103 Raiders, -117 Broncos). The Raiders are on the brink of 2022 extinction, and the Broncos defense has revenge in mind. Take the Broncos and lay 2.5 points (-117).
A Week 1 loss to the Steelers put the Bengals in a hole they’re still trying to climb out of – where every loss is a step backward that kills momentum. Cincinnati is a road favorite (4 points at -110 Bengals, -110 Steelers). At this point, the Bengals are better at too many positions to lay off the point spread. Take the Bengals and lay 4 points (-110).
Minnesota is 4-0 at home and winners of seven straight. The Cowboys are a coming off a road loss at Green Bay where they blew a 14-point lead. Yet, Dallas is favored (2 points at -110 for both teams). Call me nuts, but getting points for a home team with a loud crowd and an 8-1 record just makes too much sense. Take the Vikings on the moneyline (+105).
In my view, the Chargers are the most overrated team of the last two seasons. They lose games they should win. They lose games they should lose. The spread says the Chiefs should win (5.5 points at -112 Chiefs, -108 Chargers). I rarely shy away from a team that dominates its division or betting against a team that underachieves. Take the Chiefs and lay 5.5 points (-112).
The 49ers remain a favorite to go to the Super Bowl despite not showing it consistently on the field. The Cardinals are forced to pass by design. The Over/Under is low (43.5 at -111 Over, -109 Under). The combination of the 49ers looking to hit their stride and the Cardinals likely to throw 40 or more times makes this number seem too low. Take the Over (-111).
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