Category: Buckeyes Wire

Week 13 CFP Bubble Watch: Georgia’s resume is legit

With just three weeks left in the college football season, let’s look at the resumes for those still in College Football Playoff contention.

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. If you’ve been reading through my Eliminator articles, you’d know that I still count 12 teams with a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. (And if you haven’t been reading them, please feel free to go back to them.)

Now that teams have played enough games, we can get a real look at every team’s resume. So, for the 12 teams still alive, I am going to present all of the resumes to you. We’re going to look at every resume so that we can compare what positives and negatives each team has. It’s the easiest and best way to understand what each team is bringing to the table in the College Football Playoff discussion.

How this works

Let’s go over what I’m looking at and why.

Quality of wins

For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between No. 24 and No. 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (CFP, AP, or Amway Coaches), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. Moreover, it just makes sense. The committee is aware of who is a good team and what counts as a win of decent quality, even if that team didn’t quite make it into the rankings.

I also split up every game each team has played into different groups. The groupings are important. First of all, I focus on Top 10 and Top 25 wins. These are, obviously, the quality wins. Next, I’m looking for teams in the Top 40. These are solid wins and deserve respect. The next group is teams somewhere between 41st and 80th in FBS. These are mediocre teams–they are games that any Playoff contender should win, but could in theory lose on an off day. Everyone outside the Top 80 is a complete cupcake game, and should be valued as a negative. To determine where each team is and who is outside the Top 80, I use a collection of computer rankings that focus on different things (e.g. Sagarin and Anderson) to get broad perspectives on who is a cupcake and who isn’t.

The selection committee has consistently mentioned “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric over the past few years, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one–there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Buffalo or Western Kentucky)–the committee cares about it, so we have to as well.

Offensive and defensive performance

I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.
Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.

SOS range

The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, especially as different rankings favor different things. They do, however, give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is. Keep in mind, it’s still a little early in the season, so the different SOS methodologies could bring up radically different results. Ranges could still be wide in some cases, but in general they should narrow over the next few weeks.

Next… Teams that control their own destinies

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WATCH: Terry McLaurin makes remarkable, contested catch for Redskins

Terry McLaurin put on a cape and caught a pass from Dwayne Haskins against the Jets Sunday. Watch it in all its glory.

Raise your hand if you knew former Ohio State wide-receiver Terry McLaurin was going to be THIS good in the NFL. Now, if you have your hand raised, go wash your mouth out with soap for lying.

Look, I don’t think anyone’s surprised that McLaurin has burst onto the scene with the work ethic and demeanor he possesses. But who saw him being literally the best wide-receiver on the Redskins’ roster as a rookie?

The kid currently leads Washington in targets, catches, touchdowns, and yards per game. At this point, he is in front and center in the team picture for the steal of the 2019 NFL Draft.

On that note, if you haven’t seen it, you’re life won’t be complete without watching McLaurin’s catch against the Jets on Sunday. He had a familiar face (Dwayne Haskins) launch a pass down the left sideline, but he was blanketed pretty well by the Jets’ DB.

No matter. All the former Ohio State wide-receiver did was go up and over the DB, wrestle it away from him while coming down and complete the catch for a long gain. In case you haven’t seen it, click on the below and be ready to catch your breath.

We’ll no doubt see more of this from McLaurin as he continues to develop and acclimate himself to the NFL. Especially if Haskins can improve and bring back the Columbus connection.

Ohio State currently has four of its athletic teams in the top 10 rankings nationally

Ohio State has a large and highly successful athletic department. It’s flexing its muscle with four teams currently ranked in the top ten.

It’s good to be great at one sport, especially when that sport brings in revenue to support some of the other non-traditional money generating ones. It’s even better to have an athletic program that can compete at a high level across multiple sports.

And that’s just what we’ve seen from Ohio State over the years. It is historically good in football and basketball, but it’s one of the best all-around athletic departments out there for its ability to be a national player in multiple sports.

That takes us to today. As it stands right now, the Buckeyes are a top ten squad in four different sports. You of course know about football where they are currently ranked as the College Football Playoff Committee’s No. 2 team.. You also likely know that the men’s basketball team has just entered the top ten in both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Polls.

However, that’s not all. The wrestling team checks in at No. 6, and the women’s hockey team is off to a great start and currently ranked No. 7. See the graphic below shared by the official Twitter feed of the Ohio State Buckeyes and feel free to beat your chest a little and rub it in to other programs not so fortunate.

Wouldn’t it be great if this trend continued and Ohio State ends up competing for some pretty special things nationally in all four?

Ohio State second most dominant team of 21st Century according to USA TODAY’s Paul Myerberg

USA TODAY’s Paul Myerberg selected the Ohio State football program as the 2nd most dominant team of the 21st Century.

Several news outlets are doing pieces on some of the most iconic teams, players, and moments in the history of college football during this 150 year anniversary of the sport, and USA TODAY is no different. It has rolled out several pieces, and the latest is a video segment by national writer Paul Myerberg.

He discusses the top three most dominant teams of college football during the 21st Century. For those math and historical wizards out there, that would mean from the year 2000 up until this year.

Of course Ohio State is in the running, and Myerberg labels the Buckeyes as the second most dominant team, just in front of the Clemson Tigers. Here’s what he says about OSU’s run.

“They’ve won two national championships since 2000 — one under Jim Tressel, one more recently under Urban Meyer. But every year since 2000, they’ve been good, at the baseline, good. Sometimes they’ve been great, they’ve been awesome. Every year though, unlike a lot of teams in the country, and a lot of other teams in contention to be the best team of this 21st Century — Ohio State, every year, pencil it in. Nine, ten, eleven, twelve wins.”

Of course you know what team Myerberg picked as the most dominant team of the Century, it’s none other than Alabama, and it’s hard to argue against.

You can click on the below yourself shared by the Twitter feed of USA TODAY Sports and listen to his rationale for picking all three.

Three Ohio State players included in latest Todd McShay 2020 Top 32 NFL Draft rankings

ESPN’s Todd McShay has updated his top 32 players for the 2020 NFL Draft, and three of them belong to Ohio State.

By all accounts and measures, the Ohio State football team is having a season for the ages. It has arguably the best player in college football wrecking offensive game plans from the defensive end spot, and one of the best quarterback and running backs in the country.

And that’s before we even start talking about the seasoned and talented guys in the secondary and wide-receiver position. With all that talent, you’re sure to hear some names called early during the 2020 NFL Draft.

But don’t just believe our word, how about one of the most respected and knowledgeable guys on this sort of thing, ESPN’s NFL Draft expert, Todd McShay. He just released his latest ranking of the top 32 players (subscription required) in the 2020 draft (or the entire first round) and there are three Ohio State players included.

Defensive end Chase Young is labeled as the overall top prospect, cornerback Jeffrey Okudah is No. 4, and running back J.K. Dobbins has moved up into the No. 23 spot. That means McShay now believes he’s the second-best running back available behind Georgia’s D’Andre Swift and ahead of Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor.

Here’s what McShay has to say about all three:

No. 1 Chase Young

Despite missing the last two games, Young has 13.5 sacks (No. 2 in the country), 15.5 tackles for loss (tied for seventh) and five forced fumbles (second). Let those numbers sink in for a minute. He has quickness and above-average bend, and he flashes the ability to convert speed to power, though he still has room for a little improvement getting off blocks. He best fits as a 4-3 defensive end, but he has experience dropping into coverage and could end up converting to a 3-4 outside linebacker role. He has been nothing short of dominant this season, head and shoulders above the rest of the edge rushers in the class.

No. 2 Jeff Okudah

A big, long corner, Okudah has smooth hips and quick feet. He occasionally lunges, but he also shows the ability to recover quickly in press coverage with his athleticism. He has tools to become a No. 1 corner. I love his versatility, as he lines up on both sides and in the slot while helping out in run defense. In 10 games, Okudah has hauled in three interceptions — including a highlight-reel-worthy snag — and he has 22 tackles, a forced fumble and four passes broken up.

No. 23 J.K. Dobbins

Dobbins has above-average balance and core strength. He shows average quickness through the hole and he builds to above-average playing speed. Dobbins is a little tight and isn’t an ankle-breaker in space, but he’s shifty between the tackles. As a pass-catcher, he flashes soft hands and is efficient after the catch. Through 10 games, Dobbins is fifth in the nation in rushing yards (1,289) with a 7.0-per-carry clip, and he has run it into the end zone 13 times.

Ohio State DE Chase Young named a finalist for the Bronco Nagurski Trophy

The Ohio State football star defensive end Chase Young has been named one of five finalists for the Bronco Nagurski Trophy.

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Chase Young, the third-year defensive end from the Ohio State University, has been named a finalist for the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, an award given annually to the nation’s top defender.

Young may not be just the top defender in the nation this year, but he certainly has a claim to be one of the most dominant collegiate defensive ends of all time.

The projected top-three pick is just 0.5 away from the single-season sack record at Ohio State. It’s also important to note he’s been suspended for the past two games which he easily could’ve amassed several more sacks.

That said, Ohio State announced early today on Twitter that Young’s one of five finalists for the trophy.

It’s fully expected that Young wins this award, and as you can see in the graphic, the Ohio State defense as a whole has been one of the most impressive in the country.

Big Ten and big game NCAA football 2019 expert picks and predictions for week 13

Our expert contributors pick all the Big Ten and biggest college football games against the spread and straight up for week 13.

The college football calendar is turning ever so quickly, and late conference games are now going to determine everything in the Big Ten and around the country. We now have true contenders, those positioning for bowl games, and those teams looking to play spoiler.

As normal, we’re predicting every Big Ten game for the week straight-up and against the spread, but since the slate is dominated by conference play towards the end of the season here, we’ll do the same for the six games deemed to be the biggest nationally each week. We’re the judge and jury on that one. It’s called our Pick Six.

A a reminder, if there’s an *next to the pick, that means the team will win, but not cover. Also, we get our odds from BetMGM.

INSTRUCTIONS: Make your pick against the spread. For example …
– If you think Ohio State will win -3.5 over Michigan: OSU
– If you think Ohio State will win outright: OSU
– If you think Ohio State will win, but NOT cover: OSU*
– If there’s a tie, George Washington settles it via the ‘ole quarter coin-flip.

Here we go for a big week thirteen, but first, the standings that will be updated each week after all the games. Onward we go. Just keep picking, just keep picking …

RESULTS SO FAR

@PhilHarrisonBW: 113-31 SU, 64-80 ATS
@yesh222: 108-36 SU, 78-66 ATS
@MarkRussell1975: 115-29 SU, 86-58 ATS
@BrentReeves: 109-35 SU, 78-66 ATS
@SirBrockNetter: 111-33 SU, 70-74 ATS
@JaxFryburger: 111-33 SU, 76-68 ATS
CONSENSUS PICK: 113-31 SU, 82-62 ATS

First up … Big Ten early games

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What the College Football Committee said about Ohio State after the 3rd set of CFP Rankings

The third release of 2019 College Football Playoff Rankings are out. Find out what the CFP Committee said about Ohio State after the reveal.

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The latest College Football Playoff Rankings are out and Ohio State has held steady at No. 2 according to the committee that decides these types of things.

Each week, after the rankings are revealed, the CFP Committee holds a teleconference for select media members to answer questions about the discussions and process used to rank the teams into their respective slots.

We’re a part of those and we’d like to pass on what the Playoff Selection Committee Chair Rob Mullens had to say about Ohio State. So, here goes …

On the overall comments from the selection committee on the Buckeyes:

Ohio State is strong on both sides of the ball. They’ve made a statement all year long.

On the importance of the final score of games:

Question from the media: You were asked a question last week about the
importance of final score versus what happens in a game. I’m just curious, Ohio State was up I think 42-0 on Maryland at halftime and pulled its starters. They were up 42-7 early in the 3rd and pulled the starters against Rutgers. When the committee is evaluating those games, does the evaluation kind of end there? Is that sort of a punctuation mark? How do you look at those?

ROB MULLENS: We watch the entire games. We certainly do not incent margin of victory, but we understand those were all convincing wins for Ohio State.

Follow Up Question: I think they’re winning by an average of 40 something to 6 or something over the first three quarters of games this year. How much is a statistic like that factoring in to where the committee sees Ohio State right now?

ROB MULLENS: We don’t evaluate that statistic, but again, we watch the games and we’re very aware of the flow of the game and the score.

On the separation between teams near the top:

Question from the media: I wondered if you could provide some insight in
terms of the gap between the three unbeaten teams at the top and maybe just 1 through 3 and between 4, 5 and 6 and beyond, is there a big gap in your mind between those groups?

ROB MULLENS: Well, we’re very thorough in our conversations 1 through 25 and even beyond, and so the committee does spend considerable time on 1 through 3. Obviously those are the three undefeated teams, and after last week, with LSU’s win, Ohio State’s win and Clemson’s win, the committee felt that was the order. LSU 1, Ohio State 2 and Clemson 3 through week 12.

On the evaluation of teams:

Question from the media: I just have a similar question to the last one. Do
you guys look at teams and say and evaluate and credit them when they are complete and they do seem balanced offensively and defensively compared to teams that are stronger on one side of the ball?

ROB MULLENS: Well, results are the most important thing. Let’s start with that. But sure, when you dig beyond the results, we’re looking at the how, and so we are looking at offense, defense and special teams.

On the Tua situation being similar to Cardale Jones in 2014:

Question from the media: Kind of following up on the question regarding
Tua, this is a relatively unique situation. I get Cardale Jones is the only comparable situation like this before. Has there been any talk in the committee room or was there any talk about how Alabama will be evaluated moving forward knowing that Tua Tagovailoa is not going to be there?

ROB MULLENS: No, we do not project, we do not look forward. Our charge is to rank the teams based on their body of work through week 12, and that’s what we did. Obviously we’ll watch the games moving forward and evaluate them after that.

 

 

Ohio State offensive line semifinalist for the Joe Moore Award

The Ohio State offensive line has been named as one of ten semifinalists for the Joe Moore Award.

The Ohio State offensive line was just named one of ten semifinalists for the Joe Moore Award that goes to the best offensive line in college football annually. The award selects teams based on six criteria: Toughness, effort, teamwork, consistency, technique, and finishing. It has been handed out since 2015.

There’s good reason for Ohio State’s big guys to be included. Despite the O-line being a serious question mark heading into the year because of some key departures, the unit has meshed well together and has instead been a strength of this team in 2019.

Behind the run-blocking and pass protection of the Buckeye offensive line, OSU is No. 4 in FBS in yards per game, No. 1 in offensive 3rd down conversion percentage, No. 1 in scoring offense, and No. 4 in total offense. And while quarterback Justin Fields has been sacked more times than anyone would like, it has more to do with his desire to keep plays alive.

In fact, one telling stat of how clean the pocket has been kept, Fields has only thrown one interception to 31 passing touchdowns. Quite remarkable really.

The other nine semifinalists include Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin.

The finalists will be selected on December 10, and a winner selected shortly after.

What the CFP Selection Committee Taught Us: Poll Mentality

The College Football Playoff selection committee has released its third rankings of the year. What hints did they give us for the future?

The College Football Playoff claims that the selection committee “starts from scratch” every week, judging each team and each resume like new each week. The committee’s rankings the past two weeks, though, show that’s not what it is doing. The selection committee came up with its first rankings two weeks ago. That set of rankings seemed to be based on resume more than what the human polls usually do. Since then, though, the committee has very clearly just been sticking to those rankings–moving down teams that lose, and maybe giving a team a bonus for a big win.

How do I know this? It’s simple. If the committee really started from scratch each week, you would see shifts in the rankings. A team would jump a team for seemingly no reason. But it’s not no reason, as resumes change every week. For example, Ohio State’s season opponents went 6-3 on the week, and all three of those losses came to teams that Ohio State also played. The Buckeyes have a stronger resume this week than last week, even though all the Buckeyes themselves did was play Rutgers. These types of things should cause small shifts in the rankings week to week. That’s not happening, which means that the committee is relying on what they thought last week, not starting from scratch every week.

There were only ten real changes in the rankings this week. Minnesota, Baylor, and Auburn all dropped a bit for picking up losses to other good teams. Iowa gained three spots for beating Top 10 Minnesota. Cincinnati slipped a spot (and lost a second spot to Iowa’s jump) after struggling with a weak opponent for the second time in three weeks. Texas, Navy, and Kansas State all fell out with losses. Iowa State and USC both jumped Appalachian State–which makes sense, since the Mountaineers don’t have any resume worthy of being in the rankings in the first place.

None of these are examples of looking at the whole season and starting from scratch. Every single one of these ranking changes is a direct reaction to what happened on the field this week. Hopefully the committee will start from scratch when the all-important final rankings come out in three weeks, but the committee’s outlook the past two weeks has not been encouraging.

Next…The Penn State and Alabama problems

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