The Penn State problem
There was only one real explanation for Penn State falling so far last week. The Nittany Lions had one of the best one-loss resumes in the country last week, whether you judge by strength of schedule, quality wins, or advance metrics. Very clearly, the committee wanted to keep Penn State behind a Minnesota team that just beat it. The committee also did not want to jump Minnesota so high, apparently. So Penn State was stuck behind the Golden Gophers.
This week, that changed. With Minnesota’s loss to Iowa, the committee obviously felt that Penn State’s superior resume was worth breaking the head-to-head result for. (Note, importantly, that this is the first time this season that the committee has ignored a head-to-head result when teams have the same number of losses. That could matter as the season goes on.)
However, Penn State only moved up one spot. The Nittany Lions jumped Minnesota, who slid from No. 8 to No. 10, but did not jump any higher. Quite frankly, this makes very little sense. Penn State’s resume is superior to that of every one-loss team, except maybe Georgia. Penn State has lost one game this year–by five points against a Top 10 team that it statistically dominated. That loss is better than Oregon’s and Utah’s, and just a drop worse than Alabama’s. The Nittany Lions have two ranked wins (Michigan and Iowa)–which is more than Alabama, Oregon, and Utah have combined. Penn State has, additionally, beaten two more Power 5 teams with seven wins (Pitt and Indiana). That gives the Nittany Lions four such wins–again more than Alabama, Oregon, and Utah have combined (Alabama has beaten Texas A&M and Group of 5 Southern Miss, while Oregon has beaten USC).
The Alabama issue
I’m not even going to start talking about the Tua Tagovailoa injury. Instead, I’m pointing out that Alabama just has no resume. The Crimson Tide have one somewhat-meaningful win so far. That’s it. Alabama has beaten a Texas A&M team that has yet to beat a bowl team. Texas A&M’s resume, entirely, is based on the fact that it has three good losses. In fact, that is likely the reason that the committee hasn’t ranked Texas A&M yet, even with its 7-3 record. Alabama also has a win over a good Conference-USA team in Southern Miss.
Every single other team that Alabama has beat is, at best, 5-5. Alabama will be lucky if it ends the season having beaten three Power 5 bowl teams (that includes Auburn, who Alabama has not yet played). That’s just not a resume. Alabama is living off the strong benefit of the doubt it has earned this decade, as well as the fact that it has blown out most teams. At some point, though, that is not enough.