Category: Analysis

Seahawks opposing QB preview: Eagles’ Carson Wentz

A closer look at the Seattle Seahawks’ opposing quarterback for Week 12, the Philadelphia Eagles’ Carson Wentz.

The Seattle Seahawks enjoyed a well-timed bye week and are now back to close out the home stretch of the season. First up following the break are the Philadelphia Eagles, led by quarterback Carson Wentz.

Ever since coming into the league as the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft, Wentz has established himself as one of the most dynamic playmakers at the quarterback position. His size and athleticism make him one of the more difficult players to defend against.

In fact, his ability to escape and turn something out of nothing is almost Russell Wilson-esque, such as this remarkable 51-yard pass on third-and-13 to set up an almost equally impressive touchdown on another third-and-long two years ago at CenturyLink Field.

While he may not be on pace for numbers similar to his MVP-caliber season in 2017, Wentz is still enjoying a solid year. He has thrown for 16 touchdowns against only four interceptions while dealing with a receiving corps decimated by injuries.

This Sunday will mark the third time Wentz has faced the Seahawks, and the first time in Philadelphia. His last two trips to Seattle resulted in multiple-score losses, with him throwing for a combined three touchdowns but with four total turnovers.

Although Wentz has not thrown for more than 239 yards in his last four games, he has also not thrown more than one interception in any game during this stretch, despite playing the stout defenses of New England, Dallas, Buffalo and Chicago.

However, Wentz has had a penchant for putting the ball on the ground recently, as all five of his fumbles on the year have come during this stretch. The Seahawks are coming off their best defensive performance all year, and if they want to duplicate their success they will have to get to Wentz and force more fumbles as they did to San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo on Monday night in Week 10.

Getting to Wentz will be paramount for Seattle’s hopes at winning and keeping pace with the 9-1 49ers.

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Seahawks can remain unbeaten on the road with win in Philadelphia

The Seattle Seahawks are undefeated on the road at 5-0 this season and can extend that record against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.

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The Seattle Seahawks are known throughout the NFL for their daunting home-field advantage at CenturyLink Field. However, they have been less stellar as a road team in the Pete Carroll era. That has changed substantially this season, as the Seahawks are undefeated on the road with a 5-0 record in 2019. This is already one win away from the record for most road victories in franchise history, behind the 2013 season in which they finished 6-2 away from the friendly confines of CenturyLink Field.

Conversely, Seattle suffered their two losses at home against the Saints and  Ravens. Most of the Seahawks’ wins have been close shaves, but they keep finding ways to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. This is particularly evident on the road, as four of their five victories away from Seattle have been by one possession. At the end of the day, what matters is the fact that the Seahawks keep winning, not the method by which they achieve the victories.

The Seahawks (8-2) have a chance to keep their 2019 road record perfect when they face the Eagles (5-5) in Week 12. Seattle has performed well in the City of Brotherly Love, compiling a 4-0 record there over the past 14 years. This could work to the Seahawks’ advantage, especially considering the Eagles are coming off a devastating loss to the Patriots. The game against Philadelphia will take place on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field at 10:00 a.m. PT.

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FiveThirtyEight gives Bills good look at postseason

FiveThirtyEight predicts the Buffalo Bills are more than likely to make the postseason heading into Week 12. 

FiveThirtyEight predicts the Buffalo Bills are more than likely to make the postseason heading into Week 12.

According to the analytics website, the Bills currently sit with a 71 percent chance to crack the playoffs this season.

Those are the ninth-best odds handed out by FiveThirtyEight, a percentage also shared by the Texans.

Despite those high odds, don’t expect the Bills to win the division. That’s no surprise with the Patriots still in the AFC East, but it’s still a startling drop off.

Of the NFL teams within the 14-best percent chances to make the playoffs via FiveThirtyEight, 12 of them have at least a 37 percent chance to win their respective division. The Raiders clock in at a 15 percent chance at winning the AFC West while Buffalo’s look at the AFC East is at a lowly 2 percent. Their look at winning the Super Bowl is also at a less than 1 percent chance.

In regard to the AFC, the Bills have the fourth-highest percent chances of landing in the playoffs, trailing only the Patriots (99%), Ravens (99%) and Chiefs (92%).

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Luka Doncic single-handedly gave Warriors their worst loss since 1973

Luka Doncic is a bad, bad man. On Wednesday night, if the Warriors had any doubts, he made sure they were eliminated.

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By now, it’s no secret that the Golden State Warriors are in the sunken place, but on Wednesday night, Luka Doncic — the Mavericks’ sophomore phenom — helped the team make the wrong kind of history.

Doncic recorded his seventh triple-double of the season and managed to accomplish the feat in record time. His 35-point, 10-rebound, 11-assist triple-double came in just 25 minutes of playing time. It was the least amount of playing time in which a player has recorded a 30-point triple-double in NBA history.

Even more impressively, Doncic’s magnificent effort helped him finish the game with a plus-minus rating of plus-45. The Mavericks pummeled the Warriors by a final score of 142-94. The 48-point loss was the worst loss the Warriors suffered since they were defeated by the Los Angeles Lakers by a final score of 126-70 back on April 21, 1973.

Interestingly enough, the 1973 defeat occurred in a playoff series that the Warriors would end up losing in five games.

Fortunately for them, Wednesday night’s obliteration at the hands of Doncic and the Mavericks was a regular season contest, so it only counts for one loss.

Golden State will have the opportunity to redeem themselves on Friday night when they pay a visit to the Utah Jazz.

Danny Ainge not opposed to giving Kyrie Irving tribute video upon return

Should Kyrie Irving receive a tribute video when the Brooklyn Nets visit the Boston Celtics on Nov. 27.

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While seemingly everyone else in Boston will bring out the pitchforks for Kyrie Irving’s potential return to TD Garden on Nov. 27, don’t expect Boston Celtics president and general manager Danny Ainge to join in the mob mentality, opting for a more balanced view of Irving’s time with the franchise.

When asked by “The Toucher and Rich Show” hosts Fred Toettcher and Rich Shertenlieb about the possibility of giving Irving a tribute video — what has become a common gesture around the league for certain players upon their return to a former team — Ainge didn’t balk at the possibility.

“Sure… He gets blamed for a lot of the sour last year,” says Ainge (per Boston.com), “and I just think it’s much, much bigger than that. I don’t have any grudges against Kyrie.

For all the abrasiveness, detachment, disengagement and even selfishness that Irving displayed last year — issues that reared their ugly head in the locker room, in the media and on the court —the issue extended past Irving in that he was far from the only reason Boston fell short of expectations.

With Gordon Hayward’s return, there was a natural push-and-pull — or power struggle, if you will — that placed pressure on the core players to find a way to mesh and they were slow to, even needing both Hayward and Jaylen Brown to come off the bench so that Irving and Jayson Tatum could act as their 1-2 punch.

At this point, though the Celtics saw steady improvement from Hayward and Brown as they season progressed, there was already growing frustration on the part of Brown.

He’s recently admitted to being concerned about his lack of opportunity in 2018-19 with his contract extension approaching and being demoted to the bench, rather than suggesting he come off the bench like Hayward did, has a different effect on the psyche as well.

Speaking of Brown, his tiffs with Irving — whose opinions he openly questioned — further damaged the chemistry he was trying to salvage in an ironic sort of way.

Not to be forgotten, backup point guard Terry Rozier was struggling after playing like a high-level starter in the 2018 NBA Playoffs. As he would say during the season, he sacrificed more than any other player on the team, and while he kept his head down and stayed out of the headlines (for anything unrelated to his performance on the court) it’s obvious that he too was frustrated throughout the season.

That’s at least three of the team’s top six players (counting Tatum, Hayward, Marcus Smart) who were clearly frustrated with by their own situations, although there was interconnection.

If Irving revealing that he was grieving from the passing of his grandfather holds any weight, perhaps Boston’s inability to identify his behavior was out of character — particularly after having multiple players whose experienced losses to loved ones in recent years (Smart, Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder) — should also be explored.

As Ainge said, the issue was far more complex than the amalgamation of Irving’s character flaws causing Boston to miss the playoffs.

Though it was ugly off the court for the six-time All-Star last season and maybe even uglier against the Milwaukee Bucks in the postseason, Irving has had many positive moments that showed he may in fact be growing as a leader in his first season.

While more or less taking former backup Terry Rozier under his wing during the 2018 NBA Playoffs while he was out with a surgery to deal with a bacterial infection, he also developed a strong relationship with young forward Jayson Tatum which is important for players planning to be one of the league’s dynamic duos.

He was also coachable, adhering to Stevens’ wishes to put efforts into areas of his game that he had previously not been not a focus for him, like defense and facilitating, even recording a career-high in assists per game last season (6.9). That, if nothing else, is how good leaders can lead by example on the court.

Though Ainge is unsure if Irving will receive a tribute video, it would be a kind gesture from the Celtics that would help put to bed a relatively threadbare narrative. There would be plenty of highlights to pull together if so.

However, that’s only if Irving actually comes to Boston, whether he’s healthy enough to play or not.

Don’t discount LeBron’s defense in Lakers surge to the top of the standings

While plenty of ink has rightfully been spilled on LeBron’s offensive resurgence, it’d be a mistake to ignore his and his team’s defense.

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The Los Angeles Lakers currently own the best record in the NBA by a nose, and LeBron James’ rejuvenated play has almost everything to do with it.

This is not, of course, to disparage the outstanding play coming from the other top-ten player on the Lakers’ roster, Anthony Davis, mind you — far from it. But James’ resurgence has made the pair a truly lethal combination, a testament to the traction his #WashedKing hashtag has had as L.A. has surged to the top of the standings.

Tuesday night, LeBron added to his growing resume of achievements by getting a triple-double against the Oklahoma City Thunder. On its surface, it wasn’t an especially remarkable achievement, particularly given that club’s comparatively weakened conditioned compared to seasons past.

That it was the final remaining team James had yet to log such a feat against was both remarkable in its completeness and in that it had only just occurred now in his 17th season despite being seen as a “walking triple-double” for his entire basketball life.

But the headline-grabbing feat is only one part of what’s driving the Akron native’s success — defense, a quality James hasn’t been known for in recent years, has also been a significant factor.

“It’s a new year,” to paraphrase the man himself (via The Score), and indeed it is. Despite a number of analysts questioning the makeup and depth of the roster in the preseason — to say nothing of the defensive reputations of LeBron in recent years, to which the above comment alludes — the Lakers are now among the league’s best defenses, much of which can be credited to the Ohioan’s buy-in as a defender.

The replication of head coach Frank Vogel’s defensive approach used in his time with the Indiana Pacers has been amplified by the commitment ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported James making to Davis over the summer, resulting in defensive performance unseen since his stint with the Miami Heat.

Logging the third best defensive rating (100) of his career and tying his second-best defensive box plus/minus (2.8) James has found teammates JaVale McGee, Dwight Howard and Danny Green as competent as ever on that side of the court, as well as Avery Bradley, Alex Caruso and even Rajon Rondo taking steps forward compared to recent years.

And of course, having All-Defensive monster big man Anthony Davis leading the league in blocks doesn’t hurt, either.

Taken together, a team some questioned whether would even be in the postseason conversation is now sitting atop the league, in no small part to their rejuvenated defensive chops, also currently atop the league. A blueprint lifted from head coach Vogel’s past successes has proven quite a potent combination, to the consternation of foes across the league.

How far can this defensive renaissance take the new-look Lakers? So long as health and a concurrently elite offense continues to flow from La-La land’s finest, it’s looking like the sky’s the limit.

Questioning running back Rashaad Penny’s future in Seattle

The Lions had expressed interest in running back Rashaad Penny before the trade deadline but the Seattle Seahawks opted not to deal him.

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The Seattle Seahawks have not utilized running back Rashaad Penny much since the trade deadline when he was speculated to be a potential trade candidate. In the two games the Seahawks played since the deadline passed, Penny rushed a combined six times for 14 yards and a lost fumble.

The Lions had expressed interest in Penny before the trade deadline, according to a report from Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. The Lions were 3-3-1 at the time and were looking to bolster their stable of running backs, but apparently did not think Penny was worth anything more than a third-round pick.

If this report is true, it prompts an abundance of questions and speculation.

What more would Detroit have had to offer for the Seahawks to trade Penny? Is Seattle still confident that Penny can develop into something great at his position and just has a longer learning curve? How is Penny specifically going to be used in the future with Chris Carson soaking up all the carries despite a few mistakes over the course of the season? Did his 55 rushing yards on eight carries against Atlanta make the Seahawks’ decision for them?

Penny has shown flashes of success over his young career thus far, especially with the ball in open space. However, he has some noticeable issues, particularly regarding running between the tackles. He still has potential, as he is only in his second season in the NFL. However, Seattle may soon find out if it regrets not dealing Penny sooner, or if he breaks out and becomes a consistently favorable complement to Carson.

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Despite the buzz about Boston, don’t expect trades any time soon

Dubbed “the spiritual successors to the Warriors”, will the Boston Celtics iteration of switchy defenders and high-powered offense be enough to succeed in the postseason?

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Don’t expect a trade to upgrade the Boston Celtics coming any time soon, particularly while the team sticks to its winning ways.

Coming into the season, the team’s big man rotation was widely seen to be a step below what the team would need to compete for a title, with larger, more skilled big men on the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks looking like insuperable barriers to a deep postseason run.

One 10-game win streak later and those qualms have subsided significantly, particularly with Boston showing it could bounce back against the equally-surprising Phoenix Suns and former center Aron Baynes on Nov. 18.

There’s still legitimate reason to doubt the team’s current frontcourt will have what it takes to get past some of the better teams in the playoffs, where opponents will have more time and impetus to gameplan ways to use size against the team.

As the Ringer’s Jonathan Tjarks notes, the Celtics elevation of two third-overall picks (in consecutive NBA Drafts), Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, to trusted top offensive options and combining them defensive tour de force Marcus Smart (who can switch onto even the strongest and quickest bigs in the league) has somehow worked.

And not only worked, but created one of the more potent offensive two-man lineups in the league despite Tatum’s up-and-down nights and overall development.

“The Celtics are this year’s closest thing to the spiritual heirs of the Warriors,” explains Tjarks.

“They don’t have the same star power, but their key players all fit into similar roles. Kemba Walker, like Steph Curry, is a smaller guard who can bomb 3s and play on and off the ball, and they surround him with big wings who can defend multiple positions, space the floor, and create their own shot. Their best lineup, when everyone is healthy, doesn’t feature anyone above 6-foot-8: Kemba, Smart, Tatum, Brown, and Hayward.”

Tatum’s showing signs of putting things together and considering much of this has been going on without All-Star forward Gordon Hayward — out until December with a broken hand — while Kemba Walker has quietly inserted himself into the fringes of the MVP conversation.

Perhaps the wins shouldn’t be so surprising.

But the skepticism about the frontcourt remains, and quite possibly for good reason. While the Warriors indeed did not have a dominant big functioning in a rim-protecting, pick-setting, back-to-the-basket sort of center anchoring their formidable defenses, they also had a much more lethal array of shooters, arguably the greatest ever assembled in recent years.

Can Boston hope to compete for a title with such a notable step down on the offensive end? If not, is there a player who makes sense who could be had on the trade market?

According to senior ESPN writer Brian Windhorst, if there is, it won’t involve any core players — Walker, Hayward, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum or even Marcus Smart — from the team’s core. Smart and Hayward have been floated often as potential options in recent months.

That leaves the comparatively smaller salaries of players like veterans like Daniel Theis, Enes Kanter, and rookies Romeo Langford and Vincent Poirier, all of whom make $5 million per season or less, and all but Langford happen to be bigs shoring up the already- shaky frontcourt rotation.

Finding a player worth moving so many contracts (or on a deal so cheap) that makes sense to pull the trigger on will be no easy task and with so many new signings for the team in the offseason, any such deal would likely have to wait until at least Dec. 15, when certain recently-signed deals begin to become tradable according to league rules.

For now, the strategy of the “spiritual heirs of the Warriors” will be to refine and evolve the Dubs approach to winning while small, strangely zagging back to what’s worked in the past as East contemporaries ‘zig’ big.

Will it be enough to stay in the conversation of belonging in the league’s elite?

We’ll just have to wait to find out.

Seahawks have no limitations on wide receiver Josh Gordon

Although new to the squad, veteran wide receiver Josh Gordon will continue to factor into the Seattle Seahawks game plan.

The Seahawks recently added to their wide receiver corps when they claimed former New England Patriot Josh Gordon off waivers. Seattle didn’t waste any time putting Gordon to the test.

Active against the 49ers in Week 10, Gordon played 23 of Seattle’s 73 offensive snaps. While he only logged two receptions for 27 total yards, both catches were clutch for the Seahawks, each coming on critical third downs.

Gordon might not yet have a full grasp of the playbook, but coach Pete Carroll won’t hesitate to turn him loose when needed.

“I don’t think anything is going to hold him back in terms of his learning,” Carroll said Monday. “He has no problem at all. He did fine in the game and if we keep moving forward with it. I don’t think we would load him up to play every play or anything like that, we would still use our rotations and all – but he has no limitations.”

Seattle hopes Gordon will prove to be an extra weapon for Russell Wilson in the passing game as the team continues its run for the playoffs.

Gordon and the rest of the squad resume practice Wednesday as they prepare to face the Eagles in Week 12.

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Stephen Hauschka lands on PFF’s Team of the Week

Buffalo Bills K Stephen Hauschka lands on Pro Football Focus Team of the Week.

Good thing the Bills didn’t act rash in regard to kicker Stephen Hauschka.

After missing two kicks including a potential game-tying kick from 53 yards in Week 10 against the Browns, Hauschka has landed on Pro Football Focus‘ Team of the Week a week later.

Hauschka was a perfect 3-for-3 on place kicks and 4-for-4 on extra-point attempts against the Dolphins in a 37-20 win in Week 11. Hauschka’s first kick was from 51 yards after missing his last five attempts from 50 yards or longer prior to that.

His other attempts were converted from 34 and 21 yards.

Of Buffalo’s 37 points, Hauschka accounted for 13 of them.

In terms of his overall season, Hauschka is ranked as PFF’s 18th best kicker in the NFL after his early-season struggles.

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