After the first full slate of conference games in week 5, how does the Big 12 stack up in ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings?
In their win against the Kansas State Wildcats, the Oklahoma Sooners provided answers to a few of the questions that had plagued this team in recent weeks. Namely, the offensive efficiency that led to 37 points was a welcomed surprise. The Sooners methodically drove down the field for four touchdowns and three field goals, scoring on seven of their eight drives during the game.
As a result of the win, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has the Oklahoma Sooners as the number four team in the nation. The FPI runs 20,000 simulations to come up with their projections taking into account what they’ve done and what they will do.
If you’re interested in learning more about ESPN FPI, they broke it all down for you. Here’s a brief snippet.
FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through (130); rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI. – ESPN Sports Analytics
We use ESPN’s FPI to take look at the Sooners game-by-game win probabilities after each week’s contest to see how the view of the Sooners has changed. In recent weeks, the computer’s confidence in the Sooners has diminished slightly, though they’re still the favorites to win each game on the remainder of the schedule.
In their projections, the Sooners have a 49.7% chance of winning the Big 12 conference and currently a 48.2% chance of making the College Football Playoff.
The benefit of looking at the Sooners’ current projections and where the rest of the Big 12 stacks up, is that it gives a bit of an indication as to how the conference is viewed nationally. When it comes to the College Football Playoff committee attempting to rank teams to contend in the four-team playoff, much of how a team’s opponents are viewed can weigh heavily on the committee’s decision to invite one team over another.
If there are more than four obvious teams in the discussion for a seat at the postseason table, then FPI of the Oklahoma Sooners’ opponents could come into account.
This week, the Sooners face the No. 8 team in the country according to ESPN’s FPI. Other than Kansas, no Big 12 team ranks outside of the top 55. The higher those teams climb, the better for the Sooners.
Let’s take a look at where the Big 12 stands after week five.
