Tag: who do i start fantasy football

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 15

Here’s to hoping this Dolphin won’t become a flounder.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 15

Tracking my predictions: 6-8-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

Pretty much my biggest fear last week in recommending Carolina Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard came to fruition in that Cam Newton would do just enough to rob the rookie of reaching the necessary touch threshold to have a chance to live up to my projection. Hubbard scored the forecasted TD, but he didn’t even see a target and ran only 10 times. It’s frustrating, but that was the gamble … not the matchup or Hubbard’s talent itself.

So, after a three-week stretch of wrangling my way back toward respectability, two games below .500 is the current record for my picks on the year. This week, making things even more complicated is the explosion of positive COVID-19 tests across the league.

It introduces yet another factor to consider as more than a cursory concern, because until about 10 days ago, we managed to get through the vast majority of the season with a disproportionately small number of positive cases that impacted fantasy decisions.

While this new increase in cases makes any pick that much more perilous, it also can but spun to our advantage by finding players who typically don’t play that much or have taken a back seat to an upcoming star, which is exactly what I find in this week’s recommendation:

WR DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has played care-free football since the specter of Deshaun Watson being acquired passed with the trade deadline. Miami returns from its bye week to face the Jets for a second time over the last four games. In the Week 11 trip north, Miami’s second-year quarterback threw 33 times for 273 yards, two TDs and a pick — his third-best fantasy day of the year.

COVID-19 has ravaged the Dolphins’ backfield in the past 10 days, as the top four running backs have been put into the protocol. The Dolphins are down to Duke Johnson to carry the load, and he’s far better equipped to play a pass-catching role out of the backfield. Johnson will be asked to step up as a receiver after Jaylen Waddle was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list Thursday.

Miami’s top wideout likely being absent (short window to clear the protocol by Saturday at 4 p.m. ET) means there will be roughly a third of Tua’s usual completions to go around. While a substantial distribution will go to tight end Mike Gesicki and even WR Albert Wilson, it’s Parker who stands the best chance to not only generate stats close to what we saw from Waddle but also find the end zone.

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In Week 11, Waddle produced eight catches on nine targets, and Gesicki landed five of six looks. Five targets went to the backfield, four to Wilson, six to backup tight ends, and four to the two guys who saw increased time trying to replace Parker.

It’s not too common in the NFL a game plan is the same from one meeting to the next in divisional battles during the same season, but the Jets are more easily exploitable on the ground, and that cannot be overlooked. The Miami backfield rushed 27 times in that game for a lackluster 3.9 yards per tote and no scores.

The Jets actually have done a fairly good job at limiting fantasy receivers, partly due to the ground success found against this worst-ranked unit, but also because teams rarely trail the New York and need to pass in excess, thus deflating the aerial numbers. If Miami cannot sustain a ground game, throwing more than the usual 30-35 times Tua is asked to chuck it will have to come into play.

Parker, returning from injury, caught all five targets in Week 13 for 62 yards, giving him three straight appearances with 11.2-plus PPR points to his credit. It’s borderline gluttonous to expect him to see the 12-14 targets Waddle has at times, but Parker was targeted 11 times (8-85-1) in Week 8 at Buffalo, so it’s not entirely outlandish to think a dozen balls will go his way.

That said, more work means more defensive attention from a group that has allowed only two 100-yard receivers and nine WR scores in 2021. Parker will need to up his game to find the end zone, yet he remains a playable option either way in PPR scoring.

My projection: 7 receptions, 89 yards, 1 TD (21.9 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 14

It may take scratching and clawing, but this Panther will pounce on the opportunity.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 14

Tracking my predictions: 6-7-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Last week’s inclusion was Washington Football Team tight end Logan Thomas. For the second time in three weeks, the tight end I correctly picked left injured and is expected to miss the rest of the year. Maybe there is something to that “Bonini black cloud” idea after all….

RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

My first thought was to go with Minnesota Vikings wideout K.J. Osborn, but something came up that prevented me from getting this article out as early as I had hoped to give readers enough runway to factor him into their lineups ahead of the Thursday Night Football meeting with Pittsburgh.

Therefore, I pivoted to Hubbard, even though he may not seem like a huge gamble to many, there are several factors working against him.

  • Carolina comes off its bye week with a new offensive coordinator after news broke of Joe Brady being fired during last Sunday’s slate of games. What can we expect on such a short turnaround?
  • Then there’s the Cam Newton stealing TDs factor that always is a huge risk. I’d be remiss if the possibility of Cam getting benched again wasn’t mentioned as a slight fear.
  • I’m not convinced running back Ameer Abdullah won’t see enough action from Hubbard to make him so one-dimensional that he is forced to find the end zone to live up to even being a fantasy flex play. That’s one fall-back option we have with versatile backs … no TD doesn’t automatically mean no bueno in a lineup.

The last time we saw Hubbard starting in place of Christian McCaffrey was Week 8 at this very opponent. The Falcons allowed the rookie to score 16.1 PPR points, which turned out to be the second-highest number of his young career. He ran 24 times for 82 yards and a TD, adding one catch on two targets for a nine-yard gain.

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In the five weeks since, Atlanta has given up three performances of at least 20 PPR points, and all of those backs caught at least three passes, which I feel is a key metric to enable Hubbard to have a career day. That said, he still can be effective in fantasy without breaking personal records.

Of those five games, three other running backs managed to get into double figures, including a Mark Ingram, Tony Pollard and James Robinson — all doing so on as few as 14 touches.

Over the course of 2021, running backs have averaged 26.7 points per game in PPR, and that’s just 0.3 of a point away from making this the third-worst defense at stopping the position. We’ll have to settle with it being the sixth-biggest cupcake. Darn.

It hasn’t exactly been easy, though, as the position has averaged only 4.0 yards per carry and 93 yards a game on the ground. In the aerial game, running backs have balled out, going for 78 catches, 590 yards and a trio of scores to create a TD-per-game average on the season. Only five teams have permitted more receptions, on average, than the 6.5 allowed by Atlanta.

That’s the primary concern here is Abdullah catching five passes or so and effectively kneecapping the upside of Hubbard to whatever he can muster rushing. The veteran was targeted five times in to Hubbard’s two in Week 8, catching three for 35 yards.

It’s a risk I’m willing to take to see this Carolina Cat eat some Dirty Birds for lunch, and the top reason why —  beyond all of the metrics — is head coach Matt Rhule wanting to improve upon the team’s lack of rushing the ball. A dozen teams have run at a higher ratio of plays in relation to pass attempts, and I’m willing to buy into that coach-speak thanks to this matchup. Also, it doesn’t hurt Carolina is coming off a bye week, nor can it be a harmful playing at home.

With all of that established, Hubbard will be the first back to break the century mark against Atlanta in 2021, and he’ll find himself celebrating in the end zone along the way.

My projection: 103 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 catches, 21 yards (21.4 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 13

Following a lengthy hiatus, will an ideal matchup put Logan Thomas back on track?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 13

Tracking my predictions: 5-7-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

It apparently required 12 weeks before I began to find my groove in this series, but here we are … Denver Broncos RB Javonte Williams performed almost exactly as expected last week, actually gaining a full point over forecasted value. My projected line was 70 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 31 receiving yards, and one offensive TD (19.1 PPR fantasy points). He went 54-1, 3-57-0 for a career-high 20.1 points.

Can I continue to ride the wave for a third straight successful week? If so, it all comes down to trusting in …

TE Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders

Last week, Thomas returned from a hamstring injury that had him sidelined since Week 4, and he managed to play 79 percent of the offensive snaps (66 plays). In his first three starts of 2021, the former quarterback played 100 percent of the snaps in each of those contests. He was still getting his legs back underneath him in Week 12 and should be much closer to feeling like himself vs. the Raiders.

Washington is on a three-game winning streak and has built some confidence around quarterback Taylor Heinicke as a result, even if he has thrown multiple touchdown passes just once in the last seven games. During the three-game winning stretch, he has completed more than 72.7 percent of his throws in every outing — not too shabby for a self-described gunslinger.

The Football Team could be without RB J.D. McKissic’s valuable receiving skills in Week 13 after he suffered a concussion vs. the Seattle Seahawks. The offense really has lacked a No. 2 target away from the line of scrimmage when Terry McLaurin is being doubled almost every play, and while DeAndre Carter has stepped up to a respectable degree in relation to expectations, he still has no more than four grabs in any contest on the year.

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Thomas’ return to the field saw him land three of six targets for 31 yards and narrowly missed scoring his third TD in four ’21 games. In his three healthy games prior the injury, the 2020 breakthrough posted 12, 9.5 and 14.2 PPR points, respectively.

The Raiders have struggled to contain tight ends in 2021 somewhat due to their inability to bottle up running backs. When defenses choke up to the line of scrimmage in anticipation of slowing a backfield, it frees up play-action passing to make quick-hitting throws over the middle and down the seam, which tends to disproportionately benefit tight ends.

In the last five weeks, the position has averaged 18 PPR points against Vegas, which is 50.1 percent greater than the league average allowed. The amount of fantasy points yielded as remained quite consistent throughout the season, too, and four players have gone over that figure. Seven have at least made it into double-digit PPR territory, and half of the eight total scores have come in the last four games alone, spread among as many players.

The Raiders have struggled vs. wide receivers a great deal of late, and Thomas’ athleticism effectively makes him a big-bodied wideout when lined up in the slot. He has spent 50.4 percent of his season-long snaps in that role. Size itself hasn’t played much of a factor vs. Las Vegas, but it certainly cannot hurt around the stripe.

As the Raiders are forced to remain laser focused on running back Antonio Gibson, Thomas has one of the finest matchups of the week. He is poised to get back into the end zone against a defense that has permitted a TE touchdown every 5.8 grabs since Week 7 and every 8.4 catches on the year — all when the league average is once per 12.1 snares.

My projection: 5 catches, 53 yards, 1 TD (16.3 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 12

Is a career day ahead for this bucking Bronco?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 12

Tracking my predictions: 4-7-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Not gonna lie, that one felt good … last week, my selection of New Orleans Saints tight end Adam Trautman was a right on the mark. But, alas, he left the game with a sprained knee and will miss up to six weeks. It’s a bummer, since he was beginning to get on track after a slow start following a late-summer ankle injury.

My projection of 5-56-1 against the Philadelphia Eagles was 101.2 percent accurate as the second-year tight end finished with five grabs, 58 yards, and an 18-yard touchdown.

RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Some may look at Williams as being too widely utilized and useful to be considered a gamble. While I concede there is some truth to those sentiments, and I debated whether that alone was enough reason to turn in a different direction, the true gamble here to me is about how many times he touches the ball and not so much what he does with them.

In the two games prior to going on bye in Week 11, Denver fed their rookie talent an average of 14 utilizations. More specifically, Williams operated as follows in the last six games:

Week 5 at PIT (27-19 loss): 8-61-0 rushing, 3-25-0 on 3 targets
Week 6 vs. LV (34-24 loss): 11-53-0 rushing, 3-15-0 on 3 targets
Week 7 at CLE (17-14 loss): 4-20-0 rushing, 6-32-1 on 7 targets
Week 8 vs. WAS (17-10 win): 9-35-0 rushing, 2-13-0 on 4 targets
Week 9 at DAL (30-16 win): 17-111-0 rushing, 0-0-0 on 0 targets
Week 10 vs. PHI (30-13 loss): 8-48-0 rushing, 2-1-0 on 3 targets

The best outing came during a convincing win over Dallas, and the other win in that window saw Williams utilized 13 times against a tough defensive front. The workload over that time frame averages to 9.5 carries, 54.7 yards, 3.3 targets, 2.7 receptions, and 14.3 yards. None of the 57 attempts, one of 16 grabs went into the end zone, and the rookie averaged 10.6 PPR points over that period of time.

Not terrible, not great, but far from explosive and not in line with Williams’ talent level. The main reason? Melvin Gordon. He has a touchdown in four straight and five overall in that span. The veteran was utilized more than Williams in four of those six games.

Coming out of the bye, will Gordon see fewer touches vs. his former employer? Probably not. But, this matchup is good enough to make the case for both backs having fantasy relevance. It wouldn’t be a total shock if the Broncos started to limit Gordon’s touches for losing two fumbles in the three games prior to going on break. The one in Week 10 was costly.

The latter point is probably somewhat wishful thinking on my part. I fully expect Denver to give Gordon every chance to stick it to the Chargers. However, I have little confidence he can touch the ball 12-15 times without fumbling as he isn’t known for putting the ball on the ground, so it’s likely going to be in his head.

This one, though, is mostly predicated on how the Broncos will choose to attack. Their goal should be keeping LA’s offense on the sidelines as much as humanly possible, and the best way to do that is by slowing the pace of the game through pounding the rock. Denver is stout enough in the secondary to likely prevent this from getting out of hand, although preventing Austin Ekeler from going hog wild is a totally different scenario. Denver ranks poorly of late vs. PPR RBs and has given up the most yards per game on the ground since Week 6.

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Williams has been quite efficient, but his lack of scoring prowess has been his primary downfall in fantasy. The Chargers have granted 13 rushing scores on the year to the position, plus one through the air, and five times in the past four games a back has found the end zone, coming at the sixth-highest frequency.

On the season, LA has surrendered 13.9 percent more fantasy points per game than average, and seven backs have at least 16.9 points in PPR scoring. Three backfields found double-digit point-per-reception success with two rushers In Week 5, Cleveland backs went for 25.9 and 24.0 points apiece between Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, respectively. Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard managed 40.7 points combined. In both instances, the backup, or 1b, runner actually scored the most points. Now, that’s not to suggest it’s a rule or anything of the sort, but it’s another encouraging piece to the puzzle.

So the biggest question here is just how many touches can we expect for Williams? He has his most carries in all but one game in which Denver won, and they have some upside for an upset here coming off the bye, which allowed time to install wrinkles in the new offense. A safe number for combined touches for Williams is 12. A ceiling is something near 18-20.

Let’s shoot for 15 and presume he catches three or fewer passes as has been the case in all but one game this year. This brings us to 12 carries. His average of 5.0 yards per tote, in conjunction with the 4.7 YPC the Bolts have yielded, brings about something in the neighborhood of 60-65 yards being a reasonable figure. Eighteen yards is a fair number through the air based on his and LA’s metrics, which brings us to 78-83 offensive yards.

Add in a touchdown and we have a 17.3-point ceiling in PPR scoring based on little more than what each party has already accomplished. That doesn’t factor in injury issues along the front seven for the Chargers, nor does it account for the benefit of Denver having a bye week to prepare.

My projection: 70 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 31 receiving yards, 1 offensive TD (19.1 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 11

Will this tight end’s Week 11 outing go swimmingly vs. Philly?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 11

Tracking my predictions: 3-7-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

I’ve had a few close ones that didn’t break in my favor this year, along with a couple of outright misses, but none were worse than last week’s recommendation of Trevor Lawrence. He had a fantastic matchup and definitely enough weapons to do something worthwhile, but the rookie was an unmitigated fantasy disaster.

That’s why this article is about gambles and not locks, but that was tough to swallow. The upcoming slate of games has only two teams on bye, both of those starting tight ends are in the weekly lineup conversation. However, the position is loaded with volatility and has a few notable injuries to watch, too.

TE Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

In the last three games, Trautman has been targeted at least six times in each contest and has finally started to show signs of life after early-offseason sleeper hype was derailed by a late-summer ankle injury.

The loss of Jameis Winston (knee) for the season actually works in Trautman’s favor. He isn’t going to be stretching the field too often, and Winston has not exactly been known for going through his reads and settling for a boring checkdown. Trevor Siemian starting is a huge win for the young tight end, and the absence of Alvin Kamara (knee) last week helped lead to a career-high in catches (five) for Trautman. Taysom Hill has thrown four passes in the last two games, divided evenly, and half of them went to Trautman in the most recent outing. Both quarterbacks survive as short- to intermediate-area passers, and it’s unclear if Kamara will be ready to return for Week 11.

Additionally, the Saints don’t exactly have an inspiring cast of receivers, and the are in which the Eagles are strongest is vs. wideouts. Deep threats Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris face the most difficult cornerback duo to exploit in Darius Slay and Steven Nelson, which should redirect a few passes Trautman’s way.

While Trautman doesn’t have a TD this year and has scored only once in his 23 career games played, he profiles as a legitimate weapon in the red zone at 6-foot-5, 255 pounds, with the collegiate pedigree as a prolific scorer. The second-year tight end was a touchdown machine at Dayton, even if it came against inferior competition.

Eight different TEs have scored 10-plus PPR points on the year vs. Philadelphia, and all but one happened in the last five weeks. Of the eight TDs scored, five have come in the last six games, and this is among the best matchups available for the week.

My projection: 5 catches, 56 yards, 1 TD (16.6 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 10

Win, lose or draw, this rookie has a bright outlook in Week 10.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 10

Tracking my predictions: 3-6-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

It wasn’t pretty, but last week’s recommendation of Jordan Love met the threshold by being 80.1 percent accurate. I projected 272 passing yards, 30 rushing yards, two TDs and an interception. He finished 258-1-1 with 20 yards on the ground, but every moment felt like a struggle.

This week, I’ve decided to stick with the quarterback position and roll the dice on a rookie who has not thrown for more than one TD pass since the season opener. He scored 5.1 fantasy points last week … it doesn’t get much riskier than that!

QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Fresh off a stunning 9-6 win over the Buffalo Bills, the Jaguars’ prized quarterback began his career with three touchdown strikes and 332 yards in a losing bid against the Houston Texans. Since, he has two games without a TD throw, including last week. Lawrence completed five games sandwiched in between with fewer than 240 yards and no more than a score. The only moderate improvement along the way was 273 yards, one TD, an interception and a rushing score against the Tennessee Titans in Week 5.

Jacksonville may have to start backup running back Carlos Hyde again, but James Robinson has a chance to play through his heel injury if it isn’t too painful. The Jaguars have an awful matchup on the ground vs. the Colts this week, which will direct attention toward capable tight end Dan Arnold and the short-area passing game to help act as an extension of the ground game. Lawrence will need to dink and dunk his way down the field more often than not as the Jaguars have no true vertical threat.

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WRs Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault and Jamal Agnew aren’t world-beaters, but we’ve seen enough from them to suggest they are capable of doing enough damage against Indy’s laughably bad defense of the position to elevate Lawrence’s play. Twelve receivers have scored at least 10 PPR points against Indy in 2021, including the likes of such “stars” as Keelan Cole, Elijah Moore and DeVante Parker.

Indianapolis is likely to hang some points on the Jaguars, causing Jacksonville into a pass-heavy script. The New York Jets’ second- and third-string quarterbacks were able to obliterate this pass D last week as a ragtag group of wideouts had their way on Thursday Night Football. This defense has had the misfortune of facing some of the best quarterbacks in the league, which inflates the figures a bit, but it’s impossible to ignore what we witnessed as the Jets’ backups combined for 38.5 fantasy points.

Over the course of the year, the Colts have given up the second-most fantasy points per game (26.0) to the position. Since Week 4, this figure increased to 27.2, and the matchup is 25.4 percent better than the league average in that time.

So, what’s a reasonable expectation for a quarterback who has no more than 22.7 fantasy points in any single game this year? It all comes down to game script. This could go off the rails if the Jaguars play defense like we saw a week ago, but a season’s worth of games argues it is improbable.

The best-case scenario for Lawrence is Indy runs roughshod over them in the first half and the rookie has to throw 40-plus times. He has done that three times in eight outings, and a pair of them resulted in his two best fantasy showings. Considering he has scored twice on the ground in the last five games, there’s also a hint of added upside for a TD, especially if Robinson is out or has limitations.

My projection: 286 passing yards, 22 rushing yards, 2 TD passes, 1 INT (23.5 fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 9

Jordan Love has fantasy profit written all over him.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 9

Tracking my predictions: 2-6-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Here I sit, 2-6 with four bad beats and consecutive whiffs leading up to Week 9. This must be how the New York Giants or Washington Football Team feel … there’s a creeping sense of hopelessness and despair. That is, until I remember back to what I personally would say was my finest fantasy football season yet.

Picture it … San Diego, 2012 … my fantasy team sported a thoroughly embarrassing 2-5 record, residing in last place. I decided it was time to completely rebuild around two key pieces, so four trades later, I had acquired Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson.

In Week 8, I squeaked out a victory by fewer than three points to get to 3-5. Week 9 saw me blow out my opponent by 43 and inch closer to 0.500. The next week, Stafford and Megatron combined for 65.45 points, and I scored 185, rattling off my third straight win to get back to even in the W-L department. I knew the team was something special at that point. I’ll spare you the week-to-week recap from there, but suffice it to say, that team never lost another game.

Goonies never say die.

Each week, when narrowing my player choice for this spot, one thing always becomes a factor … do I play is safe and recommend a player with an easier chance of meeting the expectations, or do I swing for the fences. In other words, there’s always a measure of risk one has to weigh on the proverbial scale of difficulty.

This week, maybe I’m on tilt, but something about this situation has me feeling it a little more than the others I assessed.

QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs

The controversial news surrounding Aaron Rodgers being placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list makes for endless TV banter, but what intrigues me the most is finally getting to see Love start a meaningful game. Not just a regular-season contest but one that has huge implications for both franchises.

Nerves will be a factor, and mistakes will be made, but as 2019 Jameis Winston taught us, if at first you throw 30 interceptions, try, try and try again, because eventually you’ll toss 33 touchdowns … or something like that. The point is, even through a ridiculous number of errors, Winston still finished as the QB2 overall that year. It wasn’t pretty, but he still did it. The same kind of situation happened back in 2006 with Jon Kitna … in fact, he threw more picks that scores and still finished QB3.

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Why do I bring up those players? Well, Love’s situation could play out in a similar way, albeit just in a single-game microcosm. The Packers will need to throw to keep pace with KC, and this one is at Arrowhead, so we all know how that can go for an inexperience passer. Playing him in fantasy requires the acceptance of mistakes.

Love is in an interesting situation … if he’s awful, no big deal. Rodgers put him in this situation, right? If he’s awesome, the conversations begin about whether the Packers should expedite the heir-apparent situation. Sounds crazy? Maybe. We can revisit if he wins and plays well. And, don’t discount the idea there could be some kind of sanction against No. 12 that winds up costing him games.

The Packers get Davante Adams and Allen Lazard back from the COVID-19 list, a week after losing tight end Robert Tonyan to a torn ACL. There’s some merit to the idea Lazard could be utilized in that Tonyan role as a quasi-tight end/WR hybrid out of the slot. They’re the same height, close enough in weight that it’s irrelevant, and Lazard is a capable blocker. All of that only holds true of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (hamstring) is activated for the game. If not, Lazard stays at wide receiver and the offense chugs along. We cannot forget Randall Cobb coming off a two-score game in Adams’ absence, showing the vet still can run a quality route and work a less savvy defensive back.

The Chiefs, for their part in this situation, have allowed every quarterback but Baker Mayfield (Week 1) and Taylor Heinicke (Week 7) to score 20-plus fantasy points in 2021. We’ve seen Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Ryan Tannehill all go for north of 24 points, with all but the Tennessee quarterback fitting into the 30- to 39-point range.

What do they have in common with Love? Mobility. He’s not going to get confused with Lamar in the open field, but the two most common traits to appear on any of his college scouting reports were arm strength and mobility. The Rodgers variety — move around in the pocket, buy extra time as the play breaks down, and wait for a receiver to get open. Kind of like what we see from Herbert and Daniel Jones, who managed 222-2-1 last week with a few Pop Warner wide receivers at his disposal.

Now, Matt LaFleur could derail my entire logic train right off the tracks by forcing Love into being a game manager and handing off the ball 40 times in effort to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline and prevent his own QB from making mistakes. That is entirely possible. Precisely, this is the top area of concern for me. It’s not that Love hasn’t started a regular-season game before or that it’s on the road in a hostile environment. It’s that knowing exactly how a coach will chose to operate is more art than science, unless we’re talking about Jeff Fisher. That dude was as predictable as the sun rising.

So, if you’re in a tough spot with Tom Brady on a bye, Rodgers watching from quarantine, Russell Wilson still hurt and on a bye, or any number of the other reasons why your QB situation has induced a stream of expletives flowing freely, all you need is a little Love in Week 9.

My projectionv: 272 passing yards, 30 rushing yards, 2 TD passes, 1 INT (23.6 fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 8

Is it worth going back to the C.J. Uzomah well one more time?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 8

Tracking my predictions: 2-5-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Anyone following along with this series in 2021 has seen some of the worst luck imaginable, and it had me starting if my brother’s famed “Bonini Black Cloud” was transferred this direction.

Last week, however, was just simply a bad call. It took seven weeks — despite having four “losses” on the books entering the week — to finally whiff through my own doing. I chose Green Bay Packers wideout Randall Cobb last week as my gamble pick, and while the logic was sound, his returns were anything but.

Just as it felt like I was starting to right the ship in a bid to get back to .500, I’m now getting dangerously close to joining the Titanic. This week, I’m taking a slightly different tact. Two teams on bye means gamers won’t have to gamble as much, but with the tight end position being a hot mess, I opted to avoid my planned pick of Buffalo RB Zack Moss and go with …

TE C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets

It may not feel like much of a gamble when the player is coming off his second two-TD game in a month’s time, but Uzomah gets lost in the shuffle from week to week and is overly reliant on scoring.

Sandwiched in between those two strong showings you’ll find a clunker and a 15-yard performance that was salvaged by a short TD. His first three games of 2021 resulted in a total of 7.9 PPR points, including a goose egg in Week 3.

The volume just hasn’t been there for Uzomah in all but one game, a Week 5 performance in which he landed five of six targets. Otherwise, we’re looking at a dude with no more than three targets in any of his other six appearances this season.

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New York is easily the worst defense of the running back position in the last five weeks, and the five PPR points per game separating the Jets from Philadelphia is the largest points-allowed gap between two teams from top to bottom. A week after Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine each scored on the ground, is there room once more for Uzomah to get in on the action? Absolutely.

Somewhat a product of being terrible vs. running backs, the Jets aren’t bad against wide receivers, which is Cincy’s offensive strength. The three-deep cast of rookie phenom Ja’Marr Chase, reliable possession guy Tyler Boyd, and a red-zone threat in Tee Higgins will guarantee isolated coverage against Uzomah each and every play.

Play-action passing is another factor working in his favor. When a team is this bad against the run, crowding the box is common, and it allows quarterbacks to go over the top of the second layer of defense to exploit holes in coverage.

Getting back to the Jets’ defense of receivers, we’re looking at the third-toughest matchup from a statistical perspective. Sure, one can easily point to the level of competition so far — which has merit — but New York still did at least what they were supposed to against lesser talent. Truly awful secondaries get burned by equally inept receivers more often than not, because the advantage inherently favors an offense. Do I believe the Jets are accurately represented as being the third-best defense at stopping WRs? Definitely not, but this group isn’t worse than middle of the pack.

The risk here purely comes down to the combination of game flow and how Cincinnati opts to attack. If the Bengals get up huge early, will they take their foot off the pedal? I don’t see it happening. There still a sense in some circles this team is going to revert into being the same old “Bungles,” which is far from reality, and Cincy will want to make a statement once again.

My projection: 4 receptions, 52 yards, 1 TD (15.2 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 7

Will this Green Bay wideout be the latest receiver to exploit Washington?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 7

Tracking my predictions: 2-4-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Brutal.

Just brutal.

Last week, then-Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz was my choice, and the projected line was 17.6 PPR points. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Ertz produced four catches, 29 yards and a touchdown, generating 12.9 points. This failed to crack the 75 percent threshold by 1.7 percent … do realize how close that is in terms of actual statistics? Three yards would have done it. On one third-and-five play, quarterback Jalen Hurts overthrew a wide-open Ertz for an easy first down.

So, there you have it … about as close to “W” as you can get until Hurts’ inaccuracy snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, and my record falls to 2-4 after my fourth bad beat of the year.

I’ll chalk it up as a moral victory since he still helped gamers but wasn’t quite as prolific as expected. … On to Week 7 we go!

WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Football Team

What makes Cobb so risky? In three of his six outings in this reunion season with the Packers, the veteran has one or fewer targets, and he has landed no more than three passes in all but one of the games. Cobb has recorded more than 32 yards in only Week 4, getting shut out completely in Week 6.

This offense obviously funnels through Davante Adams first and then running back Aaron Jones. Then it comes down to the matchups available to Aaron Rodgers. This one is not particularly appealing for tight ends, especially when it comes to finding the end zone, suggesting Robert Tonyan’s dumpster fire of a season burns brightly for another week.

Jones is second on the team in targets with 23, and Washington has done a quality job of limiting pass-catching backs from doing damage through the air. In Week 5, Alvin Kamara’s 5-51-1 receiving line was the top output vs. this defense, and it’s hard to fault Washington for giving up that line to arguably the best receiving back in the game. Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley and Mike Davis combined for five targets, four catches, 24 yards and a score. Jones is Cobb’s biggest threat for success in this one.

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Washington’s weak — by weak, I really mean embarrassingly pathetic — spot on defense is containing wide receivers of all varieties. In the past five weeks, no team has allowed more fantasy points in PPR and non-PPR scoring. This is the easiest matchup to exploit for touchdowns in relation to volume faced — the third-most catches against have resulted in a TD every 7.2 grabs.

The 15.8 catches per contest permitted to WRs have produced 213.6 yards, on average, which also ranks third. Fourteen receivers have posted at least 10 PPR points against the Football Team, and eight wideouts have five or more receptions to their credit. Six accounted for double-digit returns in point-per-reception scoring without even getting into the end zone.

That’s a ton of volume, so even if the softest defense, in terms of allowing touchdowns, manages to prevent Cobb from scoring, there’s still a chance he could deliver enough via receptions and yardage to off-set the lack of TDs.

The only real fear I have about Cobb falling way short of the mark is if the Packers do something like this: Non-Cobb playmakers score several touchdowns, and the Packers go into a grind-it-out mode to chew up the clock, making the game far lower scoring than expected. Tipico Sportsbook has a 47.5 Over/Under on this one, and I’m not too confident in Washington scoring more than 17 points, so can Cobb get some love in the remaining 30 points coming from the Pack? I can see a defensive touchdown being in that equation, too, so this recommendation is best followed if six teams on a bye week have you in a dire situation.

My projection: 5 receptions, 59 yards, 1 TD (16.9 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 6

Will we hear “Hurts to Ertz” throughout the Thursday night telecast?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 6

Tracking my predictions: 2-3-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Being on a two-game winning streak heading into Week 6 — after a few bad beats, no less — has me feeling much better about getting this thing turned around following an 0-3 start. Last week, the recommendation was New Orleans Saints WR Deonte Harris for a projected 18.8 PPR points. He broke the 80 percent threshold with a two-catch, 72-yard, one-TD performance (15.2 PPR) before exiting with an injury.

TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A few reasons make Ertz a risky play in fantasy football this week, but the upside to starting him outweighs those possible pitfalls. Tight end Dallas Goedert was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list Tuesday, meaning he has two clear the league’s protocol by passing tests in consecutive days as a fully vaccinated player. That means this goes right to the wire for a Thursday Night Football contest.

Other reasons for concern include the Buccaneers are exceptionally susceptible to attacks by wide receivers, and Philadelphia has a trio of capable weapons in DeVonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, and Quez Watkins.

Then there’s the a backfield with a a pair of capable pass-catching options who could see more targets this week with the Bucs being so strong at limiting the running game. Teams tend to use short-area passing as a means to avoid the trenches and find a little freedom in space. Philadelphia has largely ignored its best playmaker in running back Miles Sanders, which I don’t see changing against Tampa’s run defense. There will be a few vicinity-based targets lost to RB Kenneth Gainwell that could go to Ertz.

Tampa did a remarkable job at limiting Miami’s Mike Gesicki last week as he was just starting to heat up. This point is rather subjective in the sense Miami’s situation is not all too close to Philadelphia’s in that Philly has a better QB and also one who can evade the pass rush in Jalen Hurts.

The Dolphins threw all day long to RB Myles Gaskin (10 catches) and were without two of the top receivers on the team. I won’t pretend it’s a 100 percent fair comparison to the Eagles’ situation for Ertz, but there’s some justifiable concern the play-calling could work in a similar fashion.

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Getting back on track, because this is about why you should play Ertz and not why to avoid him: Presuming Goedert is indeed absent, the bulk of the positional targets almost exclusively will be Ertz’s as undrafted rookie Jack Stoll has no track record to suggest otherwise.

The Buccaneers will be without linebacker Lavonte David and safety Antoine Winfield Jr., both of whom play key roles in defending the tight end position. DE Jason Pierre-Paul is questionable with shoulder and hand injuries. He not only applies considerable quarterback pressure but also drops into coverage as well as most linebackers.

Unlike with Miami’s Jacoby Brissett, Hurts can move around to buy time and direct his receivers to get open. Tampa Bay is more than capable of applying heat, even though the sack figures haven’t been there this year. Hurts’ escapability negates some of this edge, regardless of right tackle Lane Johnson being out again as he tends to personal matters.

After two quiet games to start the year, Ertz caught 10 of 15 targets for 113 yards and a score in Weeks 3 and 4 combined, going for 12 or more PPR points in each game. He was targeted six times last week vs. Carolina but held to just one catch — that’s a rarity, and credit goes to a quality Panthers defense of TEs.

The same cannot be said for that of Tampa Bay. Even when healthy, this group has struggled to limit the position dating back to last year, and some of it is by design — keep everything in front of the safeties and let them make tackles to avoid the big play. Tight ends have posted five games topping 10 PPR points against the Buccaneers so far, including last week when Tampa held Gesicki to just 8.3 points. All three touchdowns came in Weeks 3 (LAR) and 4 (NE) to teams not known as being TE powerhouses.

Ertz can paper cut this defense to death. I’m not expecting some kind of true renaissance for the nearly 31-year-old veteran, but he still has the chops to get it done for gamers in leagues that reward receptions, even if Ertz fails to find the end zone. Tight end is a volatile bunch. Between several key injuries and the arrival of bye weeks, gamers could do much, much worse than rolling the dice on Ertz turning back the clock for one night.

My projection: 5 receptions, 66 yards, 1 TD (17.6 PPR points)