Tag: Week 8 fantasy football

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 8

The top risers and fallers heading into Week 8.

Parity has been running rampant in the NFL the last couple of weeks, and it has had an impact on fantasy rosters.

In Week 6, only three of the 30 teams playing scored more than 24 points in one of the lowest-scoring weeks in the modern era of the NFL. The week also saw the last two unbeaten teams (Philadelphia and San Francisco) lose.

In Week 7, strange things continued. In the 10 games played Sunday afternoon, six of them were won by the team with the worse record in the matchup. This included three 1-5 teams (New England, Chicago and the New York Giants) getting their second win of the season – all against teams that came in with a record of .500 or better. The trend continued Monday with Minnesota beating the 5-1 San Francisco 49ers.

Just when you think you have the 2023 season figured out, the NFL proves that you should expect the unexpected.

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 8

This one is all about the matchup itself, so understand the risk at play.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 8

Tracking my predictions: 2-5-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

I’ve made a couple of unlucky calls this year, but last week’s choice of Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan was so bad that I cannot help but feel like I jinxed him all the way to the pine. In all reality, it wasn’t that poor of a prediction, since he was only 3.9 percent away from qualifying as a win.

No one entered last week thinking Ryan was the future of the Colts’ seemingly never-ending quarterback search, but few people could have seen him getting perma-benched after Week 7 on a team that has been a mess from top to bottom and left to right. While I’m not going to pretend like he hasn’t lost something from a physical standpoint, it’s still an unfortunate way to see a respectable career come to an untimely demise. Barring a bizarre trading scenario midseason or his 2023 release leading a desperate team seeing if there’s one last gasp in him, we’ve likely witnessed the end of Ryan’s time in the NFL.

Regardless, we still need to march on, so this week’s inclusion is another with tremendous risk but an equally exploitable matchup.

TE Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals

As mentioned, it should be abundantly clear to anyone considering Smith this week that the matchup is the driving force here. For his part, Smith as at least four targets in every game since Week 1’s two-look shutout, and he hasn’t seen more than six passes come his way following an eight-target Week 2.

The results just haven’t been there. A 62 percent catch rate is adequate, though Smith hasn’t done anything with the receptions. He posted a 4-42-0 line in Week 5, which was followed up with an impressively bad seven-yard performance on four catches in Week 6. Smith scored a TD to salvage some value in that one.

Minnesota returns from its bye week to face an Arizona defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to the position in PPR scoring. No team has allowed more receptions, and only Seattle permitted more yardage in the first seven weeks of the season.

The Seahawks rank as the easiest defense to exploit after giving up three rushing touchdowns to the position, which is due to facing “tight end” Taysom Hill. Remove those TDs and Arizona is by far the weakest unit vs. pass-catching tight ends. Six players have scored 10 or more fantasy points against the Red Birds, and four of them were good for 17 or more points in PPR.

Kirk Cousins has arguably the top receiver in the game in Justin Jefferson, a proven veteran WR2 in Adam Thielen, and an underrated third outlet in K.J. Osborn, not to mention a capable checkdown in Dalvin Cook. Arizona’s defense of the receiver position has been technically neutral but extremely adept at preventing touchdowns. The last 63 catches by WRs have resulted in exactly one trip into the end zone.

Receivers have posted the 12th-most receptions and 13th-most yards per games in the last five weeks vs. the Cards. The matchups on the outside and shading to slow Jefferson should lead to more action for Smith, and the strength of this defense — the limitation of touchdowns for receivers — is an encouraging sign for the typically judicious Cousins to direct red-zone passes Smith’s way.

Tight end is a volatile position. Between injuries, bye weeks, and erratic play, it’s typically frustrating to find midtier plays from week to week. If streaming the position is your thing by choice or necessity, Smith is among the more favorable gambles of Week 8.

My projection: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 49 yards, 1 TD (15.9 PPR fantasy points)

Gameday inactives, injuries and weather: Week 8

Week 8 weather, injury updates and gameday inactives.

Sunday updates will begin when teams start releasing official pregame inactives and starter information to the league. This is typically around 60-90 minutes prior to the kickoff of their game.

Weather forecasts are courtesy of The Football Database.

Week 8 gameday inactives, weather and notes

TODAY’S KEY GAME-TIME DECISIONS

Early games: WR DeVante Parker (active)
Afternoon games: RB Austin Ekeler
Sunday night: QB Dak Prescott
Monday night: WR Kadarius Toney, WR Sterling Shepard

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (1:00 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: Dome stadium

Panthers

Inactives: WR Terrace Marshall Jr., DT Phil Hoskins, LB Kamal Martin and CB CJ Henderson

Lineup notes: RB Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) is on IR until at least Week 9. WR Terrace Marshall Jr. (concussion) is out as well. Recently acquired CB Stephon Gilmore (quad) was activated from the Physically Unable to Perform list and is available to make his season debut.

Falcons

Inactives: LB Dorian Etheridge, WR Calvin Ridley, DT Ta’Quon Graham, DL John Cominsky, RB Wayne Gallman and OG Josh Andrews

Lineup notes: WR Calvin Ridley (personal) will miss his third game in four weeks as he tends to personal matters.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (1:00 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: 50 degrees, overcast, 24% chance of participation

Dolphins

Inactives: WR Preston Williams, S Sheldrick Redwine, LB Jerome Baker, CB Trill Williams, DL John Jenkins, OT Greg Little and TE Hunter Long

Lineup notes: WR Will Fuller (finger) remains on IR. WR DeVante Parker (shoulder, hamstring) is set to return to action. QB Tua Tagovailoa (ribs) practiced Friday and is good to go. WR Preston Williams (personal) has been ruled out.

Bills

Inactives: TE Dawson Knox, LB Efe Obada, DE Carlos Basham Jr., DL Justin Zimmer, OT Spencer X. Brown and RB Matt Breida

Lineup notes: TE Dawson Knox (hand) has been ruled out.

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (1:00 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: 53 degrees, partly cloudy

49ers

Inactives: OG Aaron Banks, CB Deommodore Lenoir, DT Maurice Hurst, CB Ambry Thomas, WR Travis Benjamin, LB Azeez Al-Shaair and DL Dee Ford

Lineup notes: TE George Kittle (calf) remains on IR. OT Trent Williams (ankle, elbow) has overcome a questionable tag. WR Deebo Samuel (calf) managed a full practice in Friday and is off the report. QB Trey Lance (knee) was limited all week but doesn’t carry an injury label.

Bears

Inactives: CB Artie Burns, QB Nick Foles, WR Breshad Perriman, LB Caleb Johnson and LB Khalil Mack

Lineup notes: RB David Montgomery (knee) remains on IR. WR Allen Robinson (ankle) has no injury status after getting a full practice Thursday and Friday. Head coach Matt Nagy (COVID-19) will not be available to coach. Special teams coordinator Chris Tabor will replace him.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (1:00 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: 55 degrees, partly cloudy

Steelers

Inactives: CB Ahkello Witherspoon, LB Buddy Johnson, DE Melvin Ingram, OT Zach Banner, QB Dwayne Haskins and TE Eric Ebron

Lineup notes: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (shoulder) is out for the season and on IR. TE Eric Ebron (hamstring) is also out this week. WR Chase Claypool (hamstring) and QB Ben Roethlisberger (pectoral, hip) practiced Friday and are good to go.

Browns

Inactives: DB A.J. Z. Green, S Richard LeCounte III, CB Denzel Ward, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, DE Takkarist McKinley, DT Tommy Togiai and OL Hjalte Froholdt

Lineup notes: RB Kareem Hunt (calf) went on IR and is expected to miss four to six weeks. RB Nick Chubb (calf) and QB Baker Mayfield (shoulder) didn’t get injury tags and will return this week. WR Jarvis Landry (knee) and WR Odell Beckham Jr. (shoulder) practiced Friday and are good to go.

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (1:00 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: Dome stadium

Eagles

Inactives: OG Jack Anderson, QB Reid Sinnett, S Anthony Harris, LB Eric Wilson, CB Mac McCain, OG Sua Opeta and CB Zech McPhearson

Lineup notes: RB Miles Sanders (ankle, foot) landed on IR and will miss at least three games. WR DeVonta Smith (headache) practiced Friday and is good to go.

Lions

Inactives: CB AJ Parker, TE Darren Fells, DL Jashon Cornell, DE Jessie Lemonier, WR Geronimo Allison and RB Jamaal Williams

Lineup notes: WR Tyrell Williams (concussion) remains on IR. RB D’Andre Swift (groin) will play, as usual, but RB Jamaal Williams (thigh) couldn’t get right in time. TE T.J. Hockenson (ankle, knee) is good to go after a full practice Friday.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (1:00 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: 56 degrees, clear (retractable-roof dome)

Titans

Inactives: FB Khari Blasingame, LB Rashaan Evans, S Brady Breeze, DT Teair Tart, DE John Simon, WR Julio Jones and OL Kendall Lamm

Lineup notes: WR Julio Jones (hamstring) is out again. OT Taylor Lewan (concussion) practiced Friday and is fit to return. WR A.J. Brown (knee) didn’t practice Friday but doesn’t carry an injury designation. WR Chester Rogers (groin) was limited Friday but is off the report.

Colts

Inactives: QB Sam Ehlinger, LB Ben Banogu, CB BoPete Keyes, OT Julie’n Davenport, WR Mike Strachan, OG Will Fries and DL Isaac Rochell

Lineup notes: WR Parris Campbell (foot) was placed on IR and could miss the rest of the season. OT Braden Smith (foot, thumb) and WR T.Y. Hilton (quadriceps) are back. RB Jonathan Taylor (ribs) and RB Nyheim Hines (ribs) both practiced Friday and are off the report.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: 60 degrees, mostly cloudy

Bengals

Inactives: WR Auden Tate, CB Nick McCloud, RB Chris Evans, DT Tyler Shelvin, LB Wyatt Ray and DE Darius Hodge

Lineup notes: No noteworthy injuries for fantasy.

Jets

Inactives: RB Tevin Coleman, QB Joe Flacco, DT Jonathan Marshall, TE Trevon Wesco, LB Bryce Huff, QB Zach Wilson and WR Corey Davis

Lineup notes: OT Mekhi Becton (knee) remains on IR while recovering from knee surgery. RB Tevin Coleman (hamstring) and QB Zach Wilson (knee) are also out, so QB Mike White will start. WR Corey Davis (hip) will sit this one out. TE Tyler Kroft (back) is questionable, but he had a full practice Friday.

Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans (1:00 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: 73 degrees, clear

Rams

Inactives: DE Chris Garrett, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, OT Andrew Whitworth, OT Tremayne Anchrum, WR DeSean Jackson, QB Bryce Perkins and TE Brycen Hopkins

Lineup notes: WR DeSean Jackson will be inactive as the team seeks a trade partner for him.

Texans

Inactives: WR Davion Davis, CB Jimmy Moreland, QB Deshaun Watson, CB Desmond King, TE Pharaoh Brown, CB Cre’Von LeBlanc and DT Jaleel Johnson

Lineup notes: QB Tyrod Taylor (hamstring) and OT Laremy Tunsil (thumb) are on IR.

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (4:05 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: 65 degrees, mostly cloudy (open-air dome)

Patriots

Inactives:

Lineup notes: PK Nick Folk (knee), WR Kendrick Bourne (shoulder) and TE Jonnu Smith (shoulder) were limited all week and are questionable.

Chargers

Inactives:

Lineup notes: RB Austin Ekeler (hip) hasn’t practiced all week and is questionable. He’ll be a game-time decision. WR Mike Williams (knee) practiced all week and is good to go.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (4:05 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: 53 degrees, clear

Jaguars

Inactives:

Lineup notes: No noteworthy injuries for fantasy.

Seahawks

Inactives:

Lineup notes: RB Chris Carson (neck) and QB Russell Wilson (finger) are on IR. RB Alex Collins (groin) is listed as questionable after some limited practices during the week.

Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos (4:25 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: 46 degrees, overcast

Football Team

Inactives:

Lineup notes: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (hip) and TE Logan Thomas (hamstring) are on IR. WR Curtis Samuel (groin) and WR Dyami Brown (knee) have been ruled out. OG Brandon Scherff (knee) and WR Cam Sims (hamstring) are questionable this week after limited practice Friday. RB Antonio Gibson (shin), WR Terry McLaurin (hamstring) and TE Ricky Seals-Jones (quadriceps) were full participants Friday and are good to go.

Broncos

Inactives:

Lineup notes: WR Jerry Jeudy (ankle) was activated Saturday and will return this week. QB Teddy Bridgewater (oblique) practiced fully Friday and is off the report.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (4:25 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: Dome stadium

Buccaneers

Inactives:

Lineup notes: WR Antonio Brown (ankle) has been ruled out once again. TE Rob Gronkowski (ribs) is questionable after he was limited in practice Friday. TE O.J. Howard (ankle) and RB Giovani Bernard (chest) are good to go after practicing fully Friday.

Saints

Inactives:

Lineup notes: WR Michael Thomas (ankle) remains on the PUP and is eligible to return, but there has been no update on his status. WR Deonte Harris (hamstring) is questionable and couldn’t ascend beyond being limited in practice. QB Taysom Hill (concussion) remains out. LG Andrus Peat (pectoral) is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (8:20 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: Dome stadium

Cowboys

Inactives:

Lineup notes: WR Michael Gallup (calf) returned to practice, but he still remains on IR and will not be activated for Week 8. QB Dak Prescott (calf) will be a true game-time decision. OT Tyron Smith (ankle) is also questionable after a limited practice Friday.

Vikings

Inactives:

Lineup notes: WR Dede Westbrook (ankle) upgraded to limited in practice Friday and is questionable. RB Alexander Mattison (shoulder) and WR Adam Thielen (foot) practiced fully Friday and are good to go.

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (8:15 p.m. EST)

Kickoff Weather: 41 degrees, overcast

Giants

Lineup notes: RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) and WR Kenny Golladay (knee) didn’t practice Friday. WR Kadarius Toney (ankle) and WR Sterling Shepard (hamstring) are questionable after being limited Saturday. TE Evan Engram (calf) also was limited Friday but didn’t receive an injury designation.

Chiefs

Lineup notes: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee) remains on IR. TE Travis Kelce (neck) and RB Darrel Williams (hamstring) fully practiced to close out the week and are not on the injury report.

DFS Fantasy Football: Favorite Pro Plays – Week 8

WinDailySports’ CEO Jason Mezrahi checks in with his top Week 8 DFS fantasy football for FanDuel and DraftKings

Top-ranked daily fantasy sports pro Jason Mezrahi, founder and CEO of WinDailySports.com, breaks down his favorite DFS plays at various salary ranges for Week 8 of the NFL season. We are back for another year of DFS domination and we have some new tools to take advantage of from my team over at WinDailySports.com.
 
Our projection model, lineup optimizer, and data tools have been revamped and back tested to start the season off right. So what I will do in this article is list some of our highest projected players based off raw points and our highest point-per-dollar plays based on DraftKings.com pricing. Special Huddle Member Discount: If you would like to give our membership at Win Daily a try, take advantage of a FREE 2-week promotion where you will gain an all access gold pass to our DFS package. Use promo code “thehuddle” at checkout for 2 weeks FREE for both our DFS Gold Package. Sign up now.
 
 
These are some of the players Jason will be locking in his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s slate.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

$8,100 DRAFTKINGS
$8,800 FANDUEL

Allen has officially taken over the top spot after a couple of clunkers by Patrick Mahomes (granted he is not on the main Sunday slate). Allen is coming off of back to back 32-plus-point games and is set up nicely for a three-peat. The Miami Dolphins are currently allowing 297 passing yards per game and rank 19th against opposing quarterbacks. This is a dream matchup for Allen, and one he should not disappoint. Vegas has the Bills scoring a slate-high 31.5 points, which should bode well for Allen. The only possible worry here is if the Dolphins can’t keep pace and the Bills turn to the run game early in the second half. Let’s lock in Allen in both cash games and tournaments as he is projected as the highest-scoring quarterback in our model at Win Daily.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

$7,200 DRAFTKINGS
$8,400 FANDUEL

Hurts will be popular this weekend for good reason. He is consistently an average, at best, real-life quarterback, but he consistently ends up being a great fantasy value. The man is averaging 26 DraftKings points per game and has yet to put up less than 20. He has been consistent, even through some tougher matchups, and this week he gets a cupcake against the Detroit Lions. I will be game-stacking this one and rostering Hurts and TE Dallas Goedert combinations and running it back with Jared Goff, D’Andre Swift, and T.J. Hockenson. I think this game goes over the 48 point total Vegas has set, and I will be placing a couple dollars on the over while stacking my lineups with Eagles and Lions. With no real consistent running game from both offenses, we should see a back-and-forth, fast-paced game. At his price tag, Hurts is safe for both cash games and tournaments in NFL Week 8.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

$8,700 DRAFTKINGS
$8,400 FANDUEL

Kamara is basically the entire offense of the Saints. In every single game but one, he has had the ball in his hands over 20-plus times. In the last game versus Seattle, Kamara ran the ball 20 times and caught 10 passes. The floor is so high with his pass-catching ability that we can slide Kamara in over Derrick Henry in cash lineup builds. The Buccaneers rank 3rd against opposing running backs, and with the Saints most likely playing from behind, we could see another 10-catch performance from Kamara. Vegas expects the Saints to stay in this game with the Bucs only favored by five and a game total of 50. So if the game script plays out right, Kamara should be catching a ton of balls playing catchup in a high-scoring affair in New Orleans, which is what we want to see.

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

$7,100 DRAFTKINGS
$7900 FANDUEL

Another running back who is game script-proof is Swift. Whether the Lions are up or down, Swift stays on the field and is productive. Swift is dealing with some groin issues, which has me slightly concerned, but he has been productive each week without missing any time. Please confirm prior to locking him Sunday, and make sure his injury doesn’t take a turn for the worse. Swift is averaging 19.6 DraftKings points per game — with a lot of his points resulting from the six receptions he averages per game. The Eagles rank 30th against opposing running backs in PPR and are allowing close to a league worse 110 rushing yards per game to RBs. Swift will most likely be in my cash and single entry lineups builds in Week 8. 

Wide receivers

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

$9,000 DRAFTKINGS
$9,200 FANDUEL

Kupp does it all no matter the matchup and the score. He is averaging a whopping 28.9 points per game and has 56 receptions, 809 yards, and nine touchdowns through seven games. Some people faded Kupp last week fearing a blowout versus the Lions, and I’m sure people will do the same thing again this week against the Houston Texans. Blowouts are hard to predict. Even if the game ends in one and the passing slows down late, Kupp could be responsible for a monster three quarters. If you don’t have the salary to pay up for Kupp, feel free to save a thousand and roster up Stefon Diggs. The problem with taking the discount is the consistency that Kupp provides, so I will be leaning on Kupp in cash.

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

$5,300 DRAFTKINGS
$6,600 FANDUEL

We need some value on this slate, and Pittman provides that in a nice matchup versus the Tennessee Titans. Don’t let the last game versus the Chiefs get in your head. The Titans still possess the second-worst defense at defending wide receivers and are ranked 24th against the pass. Pittman is averaging 15 points per game, and I would be grateful to receive 15 from him in Week 8. With two 100-yard receiving and three 20-plus-point games, Pittman possesses the upside to get you to the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. Depending on the status of Hilton, I will either bump or lower my ownership of Pittman in Week 8. 

Tight ends

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

$6,300 DRAFTKINGS
$6,800 FANDUEL

It only took a couple of weeks for Pitts to emerge as the top receiver in Atlanta and one of the elite tight ends in the NFL. With each week that passes, Pitts is proving to be a smart choice by the Falcons near the top of the draft. Carolina is average, at best, defending opposing tight ends, but each week their defense has started to slip further down the list. In the past four games they lost, they have allowed 36, 21, 24, and 25 points. The 3-0 start to the season was more of a mirage while defeating the Jets, Saints, and the Texans. Averaging nine targets per game over his last three, Pitts is gaining momentum. Not only is Pitts getting targeted, the targets are leading to heavy yardage with back-to-back 100-yard receiving games. The price is right on Pitts, and he is the highest-projected tight end on our projection models at Win Daily. We have a Vegas game total of 46, and the Falcons projected to score 24.5 points, per Vegas, so this is one of the higher scoring games of the slate. Lock in Pitts in both cash games and tournaments in Week 8.

Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars

$2,800 DRAFTKINGS
$4,900 FANDUEL

Arnold has a nice matchup versus a Seattle secondary that is really struggling this year to stop anyone. With Arnold coming in near minimum salary on both sites he can open up top-tier talent across the rest of your lineup. I think Vegas has this game wrong with only putting a 43.5 total on the game. The Seahawks are allowing 280 passing yards per game and are ranked 16th against opposing tight ends. Arnold is tied for the second-most targets over the past two weeks with WR Laviska Shenault. With the matchup slightly better for Arnold over the receiving corps, we can see a uptick in targets, which would lead to even more fantasy goodness for our lineups. So, if you need the savings in Week 8, look to Arnold in tournaments.

Good luck in Week 8, and if you ever have any questions, please hit me up on Twitter!

Jason Mezrahi has been a professional, top-ranked Daily Fantasy Player on FanDuel and DraftKings for more than eight years. He has won FanDuel’s $155,555 King of the Diamond competition and placed second in DraftKings’ Fantasy Basketball World Championship, earning him $300,000. He owns and operates WinDailySports.com, which supports the DFS and Sports Betting community with resources such as tools, projection models, expert chat, in-depth written analysis and podcasts, plus much more.

[lawrence-newsletter]

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 8

Is it worth going back to the C.J. Uzomah well one more time?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 8

Tracking my predictions: 2-5-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Anyone following along with this series in 2021 has seen some of the worst luck imaginable, and it had me starting if my brother’s famed “Bonini Black Cloud” was transferred this direction.

Last week, however, was just simply a bad call. It took seven weeks — despite having four “losses” on the books entering the week — to finally whiff through my own doing. I chose Green Bay Packers wideout Randall Cobb last week as my gamble pick, and while the logic was sound, his returns were anything but.

Just as it felt like I was starting to right the ship in a bid to get back to .500, I’m now getting dangerously close to joining the Titanic. This week, I’m taking a slightly different tact. Two teams on bye means gamers won’t have to gamble as much, but with the tight end position being a hot mess, I opted to avoid my planned pick of Buffalo RB Zack Moss and go with …

TE C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets

It may not feel like much of a gamble when the player is coming off his second two-TD game in a month’s time, but Uzomah gets lost in the shuffle from week to week and is overly reliant on scoring.

Sandwiched in between those two strong showings you’ll find a clunker and a 15-yard performance that was salvaged by a short TD. His first three games of 2021 resulted in a total of 7.9 PPR points, including a goose egg in Week 3.

The volume just hasn’t been there for Uzomah in all but one game, a Week 5 performance in which he landed five of six targets. Otherwise, we’re looking at a dude with no more than three targets in any of his other six appearances this season.

[lawrence-related id=461592]

New York is easily the worst defense of the running back position in the last five weeks, and the five PPR points per game separating the Jets from Philadelphia is the largest points-allowed gap between two teams from top to bottom. A week after Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine each scored on the ground, is there room once more for Uzomah to get in on the action? Absolutely.

Somewhat a product of being terrible vs. running backs, the Jets aren’t bad against wide receivers, which is Cincy’s offensive strength. The three-deep cast of rookie phenom Ja’Marr Chase, reliable possession guy Tyler Boyd, and a red-zone threat in Tee Higgins will guarantee isolated coverage against Uzomah each and every play.

Play-action passing is another factor working in his favor. When a team is this bad against the run, crowding the box is common, and it allows quarterbacks to go over the top of the second layer of defense to exploit holes in coverage.

Getting back to the Jets’ defense of receivers, we’re looking at the third-toughest matchup from a statistical perspective. Sure, one can easily point to the level of competition so far — which has merit — but New York still did at least what they were supposed to against lesser talent. Truly awful secondaries get burned by equally inept receivers more often than not, because the advantage inherently favors an offense. Do I believe the Jets are accurately represented as being the third-best defense at stopping WRs? Definitely not, but this group isn’t worse than middle of the pack.

The risk here purely comes down to the combination of game flow and how Cincinnati opts to attack. If the Bengals get up huge early, will they take their foot off the pedal? I don’t see it happening. There still a sense in some circles this team is going to revert into being the same old “Bungles,” which is far from reality, and Cincy will want to make a statement once again.

My projection: 4 receptions, 52 yards, 1 TD (15.2 PPR points)