Logan Thomas fantasy football – Syndication Server

Examining how the Commanders’ QB situation impacts fantasy football plans

How does Washington’s unsettle QB situation impact the offense?

How else to open an article about the Washington Commanders situation under center than with John Madden’s famous musing, if you’ve got two quarterbacks, you have none. Such is life in DC, where the Commanders prepare to enter camp with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett set to battle for QB1.

Clearly, Brissett has a vast advantage in experience, starting 48 games across seven seasons. Compare that to Howell, who made one start as a rookie, which came in Week 18 against Dallas Cowboys backups. Where Howell has the edge is that he could still develop. Despite being a fifth-rounder, Howell was well regarded for his deep-ball accuracy, and he has deceptive athleticism.

It feels like Washington wants Howell to win the job. They’ve talked about his potential, and they chose to bypass a quarterback in this year’s draft. So, if Howell can avoid killer errors and shows growth, he should hold the job. If he falters, Brissett could step in – though even then they might take their lumps with Howell for a shot at USC’s Caleb Williams (or another QB) in next year’s draft.

Although Howell wouldn’t be worth drafting, let’s take a quick look at what his presence might mean for Washington’s other skill players, as well as if Brissett’s insertion would make any difference.

Fantasy football injury outlook: TE Logan Thomas, Commanders

Checking in with Thomas’ injury status and prognosis for 2022 fantasy football.

Washington Commanders tight end Logan Thomas has been something of a tragic figure in the NFL as he has battled through lower-body injuries throughout his career. Drafted in the fourth round in 2014 as a quarterback by the Arizona Cardinals, his only claim to fame with Arizona was that his one completion on nine attempts went for an 81-yard touchdown. In 2016 alone, he was cut from the New York Giants practice squad eight times before landing in Buffalo and being converted to tight end.

His first significant injury was in 2018 with the Buffalo Bills when he tore a meniscus. He also missed time with a hamstring injury, which started a growing list of ailments.

After a nondescript 2019 season with Detroit, Thomas signed with Washington in 2020 and earned his first chance to be a starter. He shattered all of his previous career marks by catching 72 passes for 672 yards and six touchdowns. Firmly on everyone’s fantasy radar, 2021 was another injury-plagued season that saw him play just six games.

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Last season, he was placed on injured reserve with a Grade 2 hamstring strain in Week 4 and missed six games. He came back but in Week 13 sustained a Grade 3 ACL tear that also required surgical repair to his MCL and meniscus.

By his own admission, he is at about 75-80 percent of his rehab process as training camp opens. While he told the local media that he is shooting for a return on Week 1, it is more likely that he will start the season on one of the injured lists and miss the first three to six games.

The Commanders didn’t take any chances that Thomas may not be back. In addition to 2021 rookie John Bates, who played well after Thomas went down both times last season, the team moved Antonio Gandy-Golden from wide receiver to tight end and drafted Cole Turner from Nevada in the fifth round. These moves have all the appearances of a team preparing to be without Thomas.

Fantasy football outlook

With Carson Wentz‘s history of targeting athletic tight ends, Thomas will be a priority weapon who could approach his 2020 numbers — provided he is physically up for it. But, at the moment, there are too many questions and not enough answers.

Although Thomas has the skill level to be a TE1, his injury history and the uncertainty as to whether he will be available for the start of the season drops him to the TE2 level – with some fantasy owners likely to devalue him to the bottom of that tier.

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 13

Following a lengthy hiatus, will an ideal matchup put Logan Thomas back on track?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 13

Tracking my predictions: 5-7-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

It apparently required 12 weeks before I began to find my groove in this series, but here we are … Denver Broncos RB Javonte Williams performed almost exactly as expected last week, actually gaining a full point over forecasted value. My projected line was 70 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 31 receiving yards, and one offensive TD (19.1 PPR fantasy points). He went 54-1, 3-57-0 for a career-high 20.1 points.

Can I continue to ride the wave for a third straight successful week? If so, it all comes down to trusting in …

TE Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders

Last week, Thomas returned from a hamstring injury that had him sidelined since Week 4, and he managed to play 79 percent of the offensive snaps (66 plays). In his first three starts of 2021, the former quarterback played 100 percent of the snaps in each of those contests. He was still getting his legs back underneath him in Week 12 and should be much closer to feeling like himself vs. the Raiders.

Washington is on a three-game winning streak and has built some confidence around quarterback Taylor Heinicke as a result, even if he has thrown multiple touchdown passes just once in the last seven games. During the three-game winning stretch, he has completed more than 72.7 percent of his throws in every outing — not too shabby for a self-described gunslinger.

The Football Team could be without RB J.D. McKissic’s valuable receiving skills in Week 13 after he suffered a concussion vs. the Seattle Seahawks. The offense really has lacked a No. 2 target away from the line of scrimmage when Terry McLaurin is being doubled almost every play, and while DeAndre Carter has stepped up to a respectable degree in relation to expectations, he still has no more than four grabs in any contest on the year.

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Thomas’ return to the field saw him land three of six targets for 31 yards and narrowly missed scoring his third TD in four ’21 games. In his three healthy games prior the injury, the 2020 breakthrough posted 12, 9.5 and 14.2 PPR points, respectively.

The Raiders have struggled to contain tight ends in 2021 somewhat due to their inability to bottle up running backs. When defenses choke up to the line of scrimmage in anticipation of slowing a backfield, it frees up play-action passing to make quick-hitting throws over the middle and down the seam, which tends to disproportionately benefit tight ends.

In the last five weeks, the position has averaged 18 PPR points against Vegas, which is 50.1 percent greater than the league average allowed. The amount of fantasy points yielded as remained quite consistent throughout the season, too, and four players have gone over that figure. Seven have at least made it into double-digit PPR territory, and half of the eight total scores have come in the last four games alone, spread among as many players.

The Raiders have struggled vs. wide receivers a great deal of late, and Thomas’ athleticism effectively makes him a big-bodied wideout when lined up in the slot. He has spent 50.4 percent of his season-long snaps in that role. Size itself hasn’t played much of a factor vs. Las Vegas, but it certainly cannot hurt around the stripe.

As the Raiders are forced to remain laser focused on running back Antonio Gibson, Thomas has one of the finest matchups of the week. He is poised to get back into the end zone against a defense that has permitted a TE touchdown every 5.8 grabs since Week 7 and every 8.4 catches on the year — all when the league average is once per 12.1 snares.

My projection: 5 catches, 53 yards, 1 TD (16.3 PPR points)

Will Washington TE Logan Thomas build on his 2020 success?

A 2020 breakout puts fantasy expectations on Thomas.

In 2020, seemingly out of nowhere, the Washington Football Team’s Logan Thomas — a former quarterback converted to tight end — would up finishing eighth in standard fantasy football scoring and fourth in leagues that reward receptions. Most casual gamers likely were not familiar with him, and now he should have elevated fanfare across the drafting community.

But will he live up to the hype of being TE10 in the current average draft position (ADP) charts? On the surface, after finishing as the fourth-best player at his position in PPR, Thomas going as the 10th tight end, on average, is an apparent bargain.

A situational examination indicates it may be far closer to an appropriate market valuation. In 2021, several of the factors that led to Thomas thriving a year ago may no longer work in his favor:

Wide receiver Curtis Samuel joined the offense in free agency, and the former Carolina Panther is not only well-versed in the Scott Turner offense, but he also thrives as a short-to-intermediate weapon — Thomas’ domain.
Running back J.D. McKissic will reprise his role as a pass-catching outlet from the backfield. As his 2020 involvement grew in the second half of the year, he out-targeted Thomas by seven over the same span from Week 9 on. Incidentally, Thomas saw the same difference in looks in the first seven games.
No. 1 receiver Terry McLaurin saw nearly two fewer targets per game in the second half of the year as Washington cycled through four quarterbacks after its Week 8 bye last year.
With the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions easing across the nation, a more traditional offseason program will be in place, which bodes well for younger players. Washington has second-year receiver Antonio Gandy-Golden challenging for the No. 3 role, and any step forward in his development potentially cuts into Thomas’ share of the pie. Rookie receiver Dyami Brown (Round 3), veteran slot guy Adam Humphries, Steven Sims Jr., Cam Sims, and Kelvin Harmon (knee) all will compete for WR roster spots and, ultimately, touches during the regular season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick takes over at quarterback, and while he should bring some stability to the aerial game, there’s no telling what kind of, if any, chemistry he will have with Thomas. We saw three inexperienced quarterbacks a year ago, plus a safety-minded Alex Smith, rely heavily on the tight end position — that simply may not translate to the gunslinger mentality Fitzpatrick possesses, especially if he has a cast of viable options among the wide receivers.

Thomas finished the season with 110 targets, or 19.2 percent of the team’s total target share. He represented 94.8 percent of Washington’s looks among the tight end position, and he fortunately doesn’t have any competition to speak of in this regard.

Last year, only two other players — Travis Kelce and Darren Waller — saw more than 110 targets from this position. Those two stars, plus Zach Ertz, accomplished the same in 2019. The year before that, only four players, including Ertz and Kelce, managed to reach the 110-target mark.

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Looking at it from another angle, last year, Kelce accounted for five more receiving touchdowns than Thomas and more than twice the yardage. Waller generated 46 percent more yards and three extra touchdowns.

With the addition of Samuel, and the likely improvement of the reserve receiving corps at large, there’s a stronger than not probability Thomas will see a noticeable reduction in passes coming his way. That is not to say he won’t have a meaningful role, but we haven’t seen enough from Thomas to believe he is ready to either score more touchdowns or rack up huge yardage figures to offset the expected dip in volume.

Fantasy football outlook

In terms of value, his ADP of 9:04 isn’t terrible. His placement as the 10th tight end chosen is fair, as well. Where we caution gamers to avoid getting themselves into trouble is by assuming he will either manufacture comparable stats or even have a snowball’s prayer in you know here to exceed last year’s strong showing. It was a combination of factors outlined above and an overall depreciated contribution by tight ends not named Kelce or Waller that created a perfect scenario for his statistical outburst.

Thomas turns 30 years old July 1, and while that’s far from ancient in today’s NFL, he is at the age where athletic traits tend to begin their decline. He’s more likely to benefit from Fitzpatrick’s ability to keep plays alive and improvise within the red zone than to thrive via volume. Thomas is more likely to turn in a few big games rather than steadily contribute. And he’s more likely to help fantasy rosters in deeper leagues than more casual ones.

Don’t be afraid to invest once the position starts to thin out in the middle of PPR drafts, so long as you recognize there’s a capped ceiling below the standard he set in 2020’s fantastic breakthrough season.