Fantasy Football DFS Domination: Week 14

Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 14 DFS fantasy football.

It is Week 14 and we have six teams on bye. What are the schedule makers doing to us? Plus, we had a bunch of franchise-altering injuries sustained last week that will make setting the lineups even tougher here. Why don’t any of those teams get to be on bye here? At least the NFL moved the Broncos’ likely slaughter out of primetime. I’m not sure anybody wants to watch them anymore.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Sunday Night

Miami @ Los Angeles Chargers

According to Mike McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa (QB2 – ankle) suffered an injury in-game this past weekend. He gritted his way through it and kept the game closer than the final score would show. If Tua is out, Teddy Bridgewater (knee – QB5) could return as the starter. At his price, he would be a fabulous pivot. If neither of them can play, Skylar Thompson (QB6) would find himself back under center. He was serviceable earlier this year, but I wouldn’t trust him.

Justin Herbert (QB1) had a horrible start to last week’s game until he remembered he had Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen on his team. Once he started targeting them, Herbert looked very good. Miami is middling against the pass, so comfortably start Herbert.

Facing their former team, both Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB3) and Raheem Mostert (RB5) did nothing last week. This matchup is light-years easier. Only two RB1s have not gone off against this defense. The problem is that we don’t know which of these two will be the RB1 going forward. Mostert scored in Weeks 9 and 10 and then was hurt, only to return to be the best of the worst this past week. Wilson scored in Weeks 10 and 11 and then did zilch this past week. I trust Wilson more, but neither is better than an RB2. If you want a fun dart throw for Showdown contests, use Alec Ingold (RB9). He seems to vulture a TD or two every season.

As mentioned above, Austin Ekeler (RB1) was woefully underutilized in the first half of Week 13. Once the team targeted him, they climbed their way back into the game. I doubt the coaching staff makes the same mistake this week. Isaiah Spiller (RB8) and Joshua Kelley (RB7) will split reserve snaps. We can ignore them.

Tyreek Hill (WR1) proved last week that he is truly matchup-proof. Regardless of who starts at QB, you can trust him as one of three potential WR1s on the board. Jaylen Waddle (leg – WR4) left the game Sunday, but he was able to jog off the field. This suggests that the leg injury couldn’t have been too severe. Both are usable if Tua starts. I’d feel less secure about Waddle if Thompson or Bridgewater starts. If Waddle ends up missing time, reserve WRs Trent Sherfield (WR14) and River Cracraft (WR15) could have WR3 value. Meanwhile, the more talented Cedrick Wilson (WR16) has been nowhere to be found.

Keenan Allen (WR5) salvaged his slow start with a long TD in the second half. He will be my favorite WR2 option on this slate. Joshua Palmer (WR6) continues to produce regardless of who is healthy here. He could also be a WR2 or a third leg of a Herbert-Allen stack. Mike Williams (ankle – WR7) has missed a pair of games. He returned too early from an injury earlier this season, leading to this absence. I doubt LA will use him until he is 100%. That said, he put in a full practice on Thursday, so he might be there. I’d be cautious about relying on him as anything more than a WR2. DeAndre Carter (WR9) had a strong Week 12, but he was M.I.A. in Week 13. Versus MIA, he may be M.I.A. again here. He is a punt WR3.

Mike Gesicki (TE5) has two or fewer catches in eight games this season, including each of his last four. Durham Smythe (TE4) has basically surpassed him. The matchup is positive this week, but trusting either of them is risky.

Gerald Everett (TE1) took advantage of a soft opponent last week. This week’s opponent is even softer. The matchup is so juicy that even Tre’ McKitty (TE6) could garner some flex love.

Monday Night

NEW ENGLAND @ ARIZONA

Mac Jones (QB4) has one game with more than one total score all season. Don’t start him. Just don’t.

Kyler Murray (QB3) has eight scores over his last three starts. He also has only three games this year where he has not scored at least twice. Unfortunately, the matchup isn’t great here.

With Damien Harris (thigh – RB6) out last week, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB2) had another solid week. Stevenson has been very good through the air, but he failed to score for the fourth time in his last five games. If Harris remains out, Stevenson will be a solid RB2. If Harris plays, they are both closer to flex plays.

James Conner (RB4) appears fully healthy. He has four scores over the last three games. Unfortunately, New England is elite against the run. If he finishes with 80 total yards and a score, be happy. That should be strong enough to use as an RB2. Keaontay Ingram (RB10) has zero value with Conner healthy.

Jakobi Meyers (WR8) will be one of my favorite WR3 plays. The other Patriots WRs are more dart throws at flex. This includes Nelson Agholor (WR11), DeVante Parker (WR10), Kendrick Bourne (WR17), Marcus Jones (WR18), and Tyquan Thornton (WR19). Frankly, Agholor is the only one to consider.

Arizona has more reliable options for the position. Either Marquise Brown (WR3) or DeAndre Hopkins (WR2) could be your WR1. Plus, either Rondale Moore (groin – WR12) or Greg Dortch (thumb – WR13) could be used at WR3, if they return from injury. If both remain out, A.J. Green (WR20) or Robbie Anderson (WR21) would still have only minimal value.

Hunter Henry (TE2) being ranked this high is because of the matchup and because the position is devoid of talent. Heck, against Arizona, even Jonnu Smith (TE6) could be used.

New England has actually struggled against TEs this year. It is one of the few positions that you can feel ok using against them. Trey McBride (TE3) has done little since taking over for the injured Zach Ertz. Still, on a weak slate, think about it. The team also promoted Maxx Williams (TE8) from their practice squad. He had some solid games last season when pressed into duty. I like him as a Showdown play.

The Main Slate: recommended DFS lineups

DK Lineup: QB Jared Goff ($5.6k), RB D’Onta Foreman ($5.4k), RB Tony Pollard ($6.7k), WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7.8k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($7.5k), WR Zay Jones ($4.7k), TE T.J. Hockenson ($5.1k), FLEX Greg Dulcich ($3.4k), DST Dallas Cowboys ($3.8k)

FD Lineup: QB Jared Goff ($7.1k), RB D’Onta Foreman ($6.9k), RB Tony Pollard ($7.5k), WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8.6k), WR Zay Jones ($6.3k), WR Michael Gallup ($6k), TE T.J. Hockenson ($6.5k), FLEX Isaiah McKenzie ($5.6k), DST Dallas Cowboys ($5.2k)

FB Lineup: QB Tua Tagovailoa ($6.5k), RB D’Onta Foreman ($5.1k), RB Tony Pollard ($6.3k), WR Tyreek Hill ($7.6k), WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6.9k), WR K.J. Osborn ($3.2k), TE T.J. Hockenson ($4.8k), FLEX Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5.4k), FLEX Gerald Everett ($4k)

Quarterbacks DraftKings FanDuel
Josh Allen $8,300 $8,700
Jalen Hurts $8,100 $8,700
Patrick Mahomes $8,000 $8,800
Pat Freiermuth $7,000 $8,300
Dak Prescott $6,500 $8,000
Deshaun Watson $6,400 $7,000
Geno Smith $6,200 $7,700
Kirk Cousins $6,100 $7,500
Trevor Lawrence $5,700 $7,200
Jared Goff $5,600 $7,100
Tom Brady $5,600 $7,100
Mike White $5,500 $6,800
Tyler Huntley $5,500 $7,000
Daniel Jones $5,400 $6,900
Kenny Pickett $5,200 $6,600
Ryan Tannehill $5,200 $6,700
Sam Darnold $5,200 $6,600
Brock Purdy $5,100 $6,500
Russell Wilson $5,100 $6,500
Noah Brown $5,000 $6,300
C.J. Beathard $4,800 $6,100

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – This is the week to consider spending down here. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts both seem overpriced. Dak Prescott is the only high-priced option I really trust. Still, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence (foot), and Mike White make more sense based on price. Tyler HuntleyRyan Tannehill, and Sam Darnold are potential punt choices.

Fantasy Four-pack

Jalen Hurts, Eagles @ NYG
($8,100 DK, $8,700 FD) 
Since Week 5, Hurts has posted at least two total TDs every game. He also has been getting the job done both on the ground and through the air, whichever way the game commanded. The Giants have been solid against the pass, but they have given up rushing yards to the two “running” QBs they have faced.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. HOU ($6,500 DK, $8,000 FDHouston has also been solid against the pass. This is primarily because teams don’t bother to throw against them. Of course, their stats have also been aided by facing some stiff QBs. The Cowboys will run the ball this week, but they should also throw for a few scores, too. Prescott has 13 total scores over his last five games. I like him to add another pair here.

Josh Allen, Bills vs. NYJ
($8,300 DK, $8,700 FD)
Over his last six games, Allen has been on a passing yardage and TD slide. Fortunately, he is still thrashing the opposition with his rushing skills. The Jets are stingy against the pass, so don’t expect a magical boost in passing numbers for Allen. He ran for 86 yards and a pair of scores against them back in Week 9. That is what he will need to replicate this week to approach value.

Kirk Cousins, Vikings @ DET
($6,100 DK, $7,500 FDDetroit has allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game. When you pair that with a Minnesota defense that has allowed the most passing yards per game, you get the script for a shootout. Just remember that Jeff Okudah has shut down Garrett Wilson in the two career games that they have faced off against each other.

DFS Sleepers

Jared Goff, Lions vs. MIN
($5,600 DK, $7,100 FD)
As mentioned above, both teams are abysmal against the pass. Goff actually gets the better matchup and, since he is cheaper, use him more often this week. Stack him with either Amon-Ra St. Brown or DJ Chark Jr. and then run it back with T.J. Hockenson or K.J. Osborn.

Mike White, Jets @ BUF ($5,500 DK, $6,800 FDBuffalo hasn’t been the untouchable pass defense of prior seasons. Meanwhile, White is coming off of back-to-back 300-plus-yard passing games. He may not hit that number this week, but he should have a reasonable volume-led performance.

Running Backs DraftKings FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey $8,500 $8,500
Saquon Barkley $8,000 $8,200
Derrick Henry $7,900 $9,000
Nick Chubb $7,800 $8,400
Dalvin Cook $7,300 $8,700
Joe Mixon $6,900 $8,500
Kenneth Walker III $6,800 $7,600
Tony Pollard $6,700 $7,500
Travis Etienne Jr. $6,400 $7,400
Samaje Perine $6,300 $7,800
Miles Sanders $6,200 $7,100
Ezekiel Elliott $6,100 $8,000
Dameon Pierce $6,000 $6,500
Jamaal Williams $5,900 $7,000
D’Andre Swift $5,800 $7,200
Najee Harris $5,800 $6,700
Devin Singletary $5,700 $6,600
Isiah Pacheco $5,700 $7,300
Leonard Fournette $5,600 $6,800
Rachaad White $5,500 $6,800
D’Onta Foreman $5,400 $6,900
Michael Carter $5,300 $6,300
Gus Edwards $5,200 $6,200
Latavius Murray $5,200 $6,200
Kenyan Drake $5,100 $5,600
Zonovan Knight $5,100 $6,300
Kenneth Gainwell $5,000 $5,300
Travis Homer $5,000 $5,800
Alexander Mattison $4,900 $5,500
DeeJay Dallas $4,900 $6,000
Ty Johnson $4,900 $5,200
Chuba Hubbard $4,800 $5,500
Darrell Henderson $4,800 $5,000
Tony Jones Jr. $4,800 $5,500
JaMycal Hasty $4,700 $5,200
James Cook $4,600 $6,100
Jerick McKinnon $4,600 $5,400
Kareem Hunt $4,600 $5,700
Dontrell Hilliard $4,600 $5,000
James Robinson $4,500 $5,400
Jaylen Warren $4,500 $5,000
Jordan Mason $4,400 $5,200
Melvin Gordon $4,300 $5,000
J.K. Dobbins $4,000 $6,000
Justice Hill $4,000 $4,900

Running Back

Weekly strategy – A returning Joe Mixon (concussion) would be an easy start. If he doesn’t clear protocol, Samaje Perine should be locked in as your RB2. There are many other questions up top. I like both Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry, but I feel more comfortable with Dalvin Cook or one of the Cowboys at RB1. Dameon Pierce or one of the Lions makes cheaper pivots. D’Onta Foreman is my favorite option at RB2. You could also roll out whoever starts for the Jets or Seahawks.

Fantasy Four-pack

Nick Chubb, Browns @ CIN
($7,800 DK, $8,400 FD)
Earlier this season Chubb went off against Cincy for 23-101-2. That was the third time in his last four meetings with the Bengals that he scored multiple TDs. If he can score twice again, he will finish as a top-three back this week.

Derrick Henry, Jaguars vs. JAX ($7,900 DK, $9,000 FDThe matchup suggests a gigantic game for Henry. Unfortunately, Henry has produced back-to-back duds. I hope that this keeps his ownership number down since Henry has posted 345-5 against Jacksonville in his last two games against them.

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers vs. TB
($8,500 DK, $8,500 FD
Obviously, the rushing numbers won’t be great here. The reason you are starting McCaffrey this week is that he will get all the rushing volume he can handle and will add close to double-digit receptions. Tampa has allowed 15 RB receptions over the last three weeks. So, this is a strategy that just might work.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings @ DET
($7,300 DK, $8,700 FD)
Detroit is allowing a league second-worst 5.2 YPC and 1.5 rushing TDs per game. Cook’s yardage hasn’t been huge this season, but he has scored in six of his last eight games. The yardage will finally be there this week.

DFS Sleepers

D’Onta Foreman, Panthers @ SEA ($5,400 DK, $6,900 FD) Since taking over as the lead back in Week 7, Foreman has the fifth-most rushing yards among RBs. Meanwhile, only one team has allowed more rushing yards per game than Seattle. This includes allowing 615 rushing yards over their last three games.

Dameon Pierce, Texans @ DAL ($6,000 DK, $6,500 FD) Houston’s offense hasn’t been good this year. Their only saving grace has been Pierce. His 1,026 total yards are nearly doubles that of the next offensive player on the team. Dallas will not be a cakewalk, but Pierce should be a volume play.

Wide receivers DraftKings FanDuel
Justin Jefferson $9,000 $9,300
Stefon Diggs $8,300 $8,500
A.J. Brown $8,000 $8,400
Ja’Marr Chase $7,900 $8,700
Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,800 $8,600
Jamal Agnew $7,500 $8,200
DK Metcalf $7,100 $7,900
Tee Higgins $7,000 $7,800
Chris Godwin $6,700 $7,500
Christian Kirk $6,600 $7,600
Tyler Lockett $6,500 $7,700
Mike Evans $6,400 $7,000
DeVonta Smith $6,300 $7,000
Amari Cooper $6,200 $7,300
Deebo Samuel $6,100 $7,100
Garrett Wilson $5,900 $7,200
Brandon Aiyuk $5,800 $6,700
JuJu Smith-Schuster $5,600 $6,600
DJ Moore $5,500 $6,900
Jerry Jeudy $5,400 $6,500
Gabe Davis $5,300 $6,200
Courtland Sutton $5,200 $6,800
Darius Slayton $5,100 $6,300
Diontae Johnson $5,100 $6,500
George Pickens $5,000 $6,300
Tyler Boyd $5,000 $5,900
Adam Thielen $4,900 $6,400
Donovan Peoples-Jones $4,900 $6,100
Kadarius Toney $4,800 $5,900
Treylon Burks $4,700 $6,000
Zay Jones $4,700 $6,300
Michael Gallup $4,600 $6,000
Robert Woods $4,500 $5,800
Devin Duvernay $4,400 $5,600
Jameson Williams $4,400 $4,500
Nico Collins $4,400 $5,900
DJ Chark Jr. $4,300 $5,700
Corey Davis $4,200 $5,700
Isaiah McKenzie $4,200 $5,600
Mecole Hardman $4,200 $5,500
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4,100 $5,800
Demarcus Robinson $4,000 $5,900
Julio Jones $4,000 $5,400
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $4,000 $5,500
Marvin Jones
$3,800 $5,400
Quez Watkins $3,800 $5,400
Russell Gage Jr. $3,700 $5,300
Terrace Marshall Jr. $3,600 $5,500
Elijah Moore $3,500 $5,400
Isaiah Hodgins $3,500 $5,500
K.J. Osborn $3,500 $5,300
Marquise Goodwin $3,500 $5,200
Noah Brown $3,500 $5,100
Chris Moore $3,400 $5,300
DeSean Jackson $3,400 $5,000
Josh Reynolds $3,400 $5,500
Kendall Hinton $3,400 $5,100
Kalif Raymond $3,300 $5,200
Laviska Shenault Jr. $3,300 $5,200
Jamal Agnew $3,200 $5,100
Kenny Golladay $3,200 $5,000
Skyy Moore $3,200 $5,100
Justin Watson $3,100 $4,900
Braxton Berrios $3,000 $4,700
James Washington $3,000 $5,000
Jauan Jennings $3,000 $5,500
Phillip Dorsett
$3,000 $4,900

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – Justin Jefferson gets a tough rematch with Detroit. The game will be high scoring, but I don’t want to risk it with him. His opponent, Amon-Ra St. Brown, will be my top WR1 option. I don’t mind Stefon DiggsA.J. BrownCeeDee Lamb, or Tee Higgins as a pivot. Below them is a crapshoot of WR2s. I don’t love anyone in that mid-price range except Christian Kirk (assuming Trevor Lawrence plays). If you don’t use Kirk, I’d suggest using one of the other Jaguars. Michael Gallup is another potential WR2 if you don’t use Lamb. For WR3, consider one of the Ravens, Nico Collins, DJ Chark Jr.K.J. Osborn, or Isaiah McKenzie.

Fantasy Four-pack

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions vs. MIN
($7,800 DK, $8,600 FD)
Facing a potentially shorthanded Minnesota secondary, St. Brown should feast this Sunday. This game should be a shootout, so start everyone on both sides.

A.J. Brown, Eagles @ NYG ($8,000 DK, $8,400 FDThe Giants’ pass defense has posted some solid numbers this season. Unfortunately, those numbers have been padded by facing a growing list of midcard-level talent. The few legit offenses to face New York have posted solid lines. Brown should be safe for 7-80-1 as a floor.

Stefon Diggs, Bills vs. NYJ
($8,300 DK, $8,500 FD)
The Jets upset the Bills back in Week 9. Diggs finished that game with a scoreless line of 5-93 on 10 targets. The yardage was satisfactory, but you know he wants the TDs and more receptions. With Mike White under center for New York, this game could be a sneaky source of points as he can at least try to keep up with Josh Allen. Plus, I suspect that ownership rates will be minimal for the skill position players here, making this an excellent pivot game to target.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys vs. HOU
($7,500 DK, $8,200 FD)
I’m slightly concerned about Dallas only running the ball. Still, Lamb is the type of receiver who demands his share of the spoils. This is clear as his 111 targets trail only four other WRs. Lamb also has four TDs over his last five games. Chalk him up for a minimum of 7-70-1. 

DFS Sleepers

Zay Jones, Jaguars @ TEN ($4,700 DK, $6,300 FDFor some absurd reason, Jacksonville ignored both Zay and Marvin Jones for the first half of last week’s game against Detroit. Despite the slow start, Zay ended up tied for second on the team with seven targets. This gives him 31 targets over his last three games. Assuming Trevor Lawrence (foot) plays this week, I expect the coaching staff to use the full complement of passing-game weapons from the get-go. 

K.J. Osborn, Vikings @ DET ($3,500 DK, $5,300 FDDetroit has figured out a way to stifle Justin Jefferson by bodying him on the line and then shadowing him with Jeff Okudah. This strategy has opened the door for Osborn to take advantage and score in back-to-back meetings. I like him to record the hat trick here.

Tight ends DraftKings FanDuel
Travis Kelce $7,600 $8,000
Mark Andrews $6,500 $6,800
T.J. Hockenson $5,100 $6,500
Pat Freiermuth $4,500 $5,800
Dalton Schultz $4,400 $6,200
George Kittle $4,300 $5,900
David Njoku $3,900 $5,600
Dawson Knox $3,800 $5,000
Greg Dulcich $3,400 $5,400
Daniel Bellinger $3,300 $4,800
Evan Engram $3,300 $5,100
Noah Fant $3,100 $5,200
Tyler Conklin $3,100 $4,900
Cameron Brate $3,000 $4,500
Austin Hooper $2,900 $4,900
Brock Wright $2,900 $4,600
Cade Otton $2,800 $4,700
Harrison Bryant $2,800 $4,900
Jack Stoll $2,800 $4,700
Jake Ferguson $2,800 $4,500
Jordan Akins $2,800 $4,700
Chigoziem Okonkwo $2,700 $4,800
Ian Thomas $2,700 $4,500
Mitchell Wilcox $2,700 $4,600
Will Dissly $2,700 $4,600
C.J. Uzomah $2,500 $4,400

Tight End

Weekly strategy – I don’t dislike Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews this week. That said, they both seem overpriced. Plus, T.J. Hockenson is in a smash spot. If you want to fade the Hockenson chalk, use Pat FreiermuthDalton Schultz, or David Njoku (knee). There are several punt options, including Greg DulcichEvan EngramJordan Akins, or one of the Titans.

Fantasy Four-pack

T.J. Hockenson, Vikings @ DET
($5,100 DK, $6,500 FD
Hockenson finally gets his revenge game against Detroit. The Lions have allowed three TE scores over their last four games. Minnesota will make sure that Hockenson gets one here.

Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ DEN
($7,600 DK, $8,000 FD
This isn’t a great matchup for Kelce. At this price, I don’t blame you for fading him. Still, there isn’t any other TE on the board who can break a slate any given Sunday. Throw out a couple of lineups with Kelce and Patrick Mahomes just for the variance factor.

Mark Andrews, Ravens @ PIT
($6,500 DK, $6,800 FD
The same logic used on Kelce can be used on Andrews here. Plus, Pittsburgh’s defense is nowhere near as strong as Denver’s. Throw out a lineup or two with Andrews stacked with Tyler Huntley and one of the Ravens WRs. This will free up enough salary to roster a pair of high-dollar RBs.

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers vs. Ravens ($4,500 DK, $5,800 FD) Considering their respective prices, I actually feel better using Freiermuth over Andrews this week. Baltimore struggled earlier this season with quality TEs. They then went on a brief run of competency against some scrubs. Of course, Greg Dulcich exposed the cracks last week. Since Week 7, only Travis Kelce has more receiving yards among TEs. Don’t be surprised to see Freiermuth end up with 6-70-1.

DFS Sleepers

Greg Dulcich, Broncos vs. KC ($3,400 DK, $5,400 FDDulcich had a mini breakout in Week 13. If Courtland Sutton (hamstring) remains limited this week, be prepared for Denver to continue to pepper their young TE. The Chiefs defense isn’t particularly good and Denver will play from behind, so the game script will be in Dulcich’s favor.

David Njoku, Browns @ CIN ($3,900 DK, $5,600 FDNjoku continues to be limited in practice. This stinks, as everyone is excited to see what sort of connection he can develop with Deshaun Watson. Cincy has allowed Njoku to score in four of their last seven meetings. If Njoku is ruled out, get Harrison Bryant into your lineup.

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 14

It may take scratching and clawing, but this Panther will pounce on the opportunity.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 14

Tracking my predictions: 6-7-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Last week’s inclusion was Washington Football Team tight end Logan Thomas. For the second time in three weeks, the tight end I correctly picked left injured and is expected to miss the rest of the year. Maybe there is something to that “Bonini black cloud” idea after all….

RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

My first thought was to go with Minnesota Vikings wideout K.J. Osborn, but something came up that prevented me from getting this article out as early as I had hoped to give readers enough runway to factor him into their lineups ahead of the Thursday Night Football meeting with Pittsburgh.

Therefore, I pivoted to Hubbard, even though he may not seem like a huge gamble to many, there are several factors working against him.

  • Carolina comes off its bye week with a new offensive coordinator after news broke of Joe Brady being fired during last Sunday’s slate of games. What can we expect on such a short turnaround?
  • Then there’s the Cam Newton stealing TDs factor that always is a huge risk. I’d be remiss if the possibility of Cam getting benched again wasn’t mentioned as a slight fear.
  • I’m not convinced running back Ameer Abdullah won’t see enough action from Hubbard to make him so one-dimensional that he is forced to find the end zone to live up to even being a fantasy flex play. That’s one fall-back option we have with versatile backs … no TD doesn’t automatically mean no bueno in a lineup.

The last time we saw Hubbard starting in place of Christian McCaffrey was Week 8 at this very opponent. The Falcons allowed the rookie to score 16.1 PPR points, which turned out to be the second-highest number of his young career. He ran 24 times for 82 yards and a TD, adding one catch on two targets for a nine-yard gain.

[lawrence-related id=462783]

In the five weeks since, Atlanta has given up three performances of at least 20 PPR points, and all of those backs caught at least three passes, which I feel is a key metric to enable Hubbard to have a career day. That said, he still can be effective in fantasy without breaking personal records.

Of those five games, three other running backs managed to get into double figures, including a Mark Ingram, Tony Pollard and James Robinson — all doing so on as few as 14 touches.

Over the course of 2021, running backs have averaged 26.7 points per game in PPR, and that’s just 0.3 of a point away from making this the third-worst defense at stopping the position. We’ll have to settle with it being the sixth-biggest cupcake. Darn.

It hasn’t exactly been easy, though, as the position has averaged only 4.0 yards per carry and 93 yards a game on the ground. In the aerial game, running backs have balled out, going for 78 catches, 590 yards and a trio of scores to create a TD-per-game average on the season. Only five teams have permitted more receptions, on average, than the 6.5 allowed by Atlanta.

That’s the primary concern here is Abdullah catching five passes or so and effectively kneecapping the upside of Hubbard to whatever he can muster rushing. The veteran was targeted five times in to Hubbard’s two in Week 8, catching three for 35 yards.

It’s a risk I’m willing to take to see this Carolina Cat eat some Dirty Birds for lunch, and the top reason why —  beyond all of the metrics — is head coach Matt Rhule wanting to improve upon the team’s lack of rushing the ball. A dozen teams have run at a higher ratio of plays in relation to pass attempts, and I’m willing to buy into that coach-speak thanks to this matchup. Also, it doesn’t hurt Carolina is coming off a bye week, nor can it be a harmful playing at home.

With all of that established, Hubbard will be the first back to break the century mark against Atlanta in 2021, and he’ll find himself celebrating in the end zone along the way.

My projection: 103 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 catches, 21 yards (21.4 PPR points)

Fantasy football start/bench list: Week 14

Check out where your roster options fit into our Week 14 start/bench tiers.

Player analysis and projections can be found in our Start/Bench Tool customized to your myHuddle league scoring and rosters. All player listings by groups are in no particular order.

Key: Upgrade / Downgrade

QUARTERBACKS WIDE RECEIVERS
BEST BETS Opp BEST BETS Opp
Patrick Mahomes LVR Tyreek Hill LVR
GREAT STARTS Opp Diontae Johnson @MIN
Josh Allen @TB J. Jefferson PIT
Tom Brady BUF GREAT STARTS Opp
B. Roethlisberger @MIN Davante Adams CHI
SOLID STARTERS Opp Hunter Renfrow @KC
Kyler Murray LAR Stefon Diggs @TB
Aaron Rodgers CHI Cooper Kupp @ARI
M. Stafford @ARI DK Metcalf @HOU
Lamar Jackson @CLE SOLID STARTERS Opp
Joe Burrow SF Mike Evans BUF
Russell Wilson @HOU Chris Godwin BUF
Dak Prescott @WAS Jalen Guyton NYG
Kirk Cousins PIT Chase Claypool @MIN
FRINGE FANTASY PLAYS Opp Cole Beasley @TB
Cam Newton ATL Tyler Lockett @HOU
Taysom Hill @NYJ Jarvis Landry BAL
Derek Carr @KC CeeDee Lamb @WAS
Matt Ryan @CAR Darnell Mooney @GB
T. Bridgewater DET K.J. Osborn PIT
Justin Herbert NYG R. Gage Jr. @CAR
Ryan Tannehill JAC Elijah Moore NO
Jimmy Garoppolo @CIN Brandon Aiyuk @CIN
SIT ‘EM IF YOU GOT ‘EM Opp Tee Higgins SF
Taylor Heinicke DAL Ja’Marr Chase SF
Andy Dalton @GB D.J. Moore ATL
Davis Mills SEA O. Beckham Jr. @ARI
Baker Mayfield BAL Jerry Jeudy DET
Jared Goff @DEN DeAndre Hopkins LAR
Jake Fromm @LAC FRINGE FANTASY PLAYS Opp
Trevor Lawrence @TEN Tyler Boyd SF
Justin Fields @GB C. Sutton DET
Zach Wilson NO Gabriel Davis @TB
RUNNING BACKS Christian Kirk LAR
BEST BETS Opp M. Valdes-Scantling CHI
Austin Ekeler NYG Josh Reynolds @DEN
L. Fournette BUF Tim Patrick DET
GREAT STARTS Opp Rashod Bateman @CLE
Javonte Williams DET Jamison Crowder NO
C. Patterson @CAR L. Treadwell @TEN
Joe Mixon SF Tre’Quan Smith @NYJ
Chuba Hubbard ATL Terry McLaurin DAL
SOLID STARTERS Opp L. Shenault Jr. @TEN
Antonio Gibson DAL A. St. Brown @DEN
Alvin Kamara @NYJ Julio Jones JAC
A. Mattison PIT A.J. Green LAR
Devonta Freeman @CLE A. Robinson II @GB
AJ Dillon CHI D. Peoples-Jones BAL
Ezekiel Elliott @WAS Brandin Cooks SEA
D’Onta Foreman JAC Amari Cooper @WAS
M. Gordon III DET DeAndre Carter DAL
James Conner LAR N. Westbrook-Ikhine JAC
C. Edwards-Helaire LVR Van Jefferson @ARI
Nick Chubb BAL Michael Gallup @WAS
Najee Harris @MIN SIT ‘EM IF YOU GOT ‘EM Opp
D. Montgomery @GB Mike Williams NYG
Aaron Jones CHI Keenan Allen NYG
FRINGE FANTASY PLAYS Opp S. Shepard @LAC
Kareem Hunt BAL Deebo Samuel @CIN
Sony Michel @ARI Kadarius Toney @LAC
Jeff Wilson Jr. @CIN Bryan Edwards @KC
Adrian Peterson @HOU M. Callaway @NYJ
Darrel Williams LVR Robby Anderson ATL
JaMycal Hasty @CIN Byron Pringle LVR
Ameer Abdullah ATL L. Humphrey @NYJ
Tony Pollard @WAS Dez Fitzpatrick JAC
James Robinson @TEN Rondale Moore LAR
Jamaal Williams @DEN Sammy Watkins @CLE
D. Hilliard JAC Kalif Raymond @DEN
Mike Davis @CAR Darius Slayton @LAC
Chase Edmonds LAR Chris Conley SEA
Saquon Barkley @LAC Adam Humphries DAL
Josh Jacobs @KC Randall Cobb CHI
D. Henderson @ARI Kenny Golladay @LAC
SIT ‘EM IF YOU GOT ‘EM Opp Marvin Jones @TEN
Tevin Coleman NO Tajae Sharpe @CAR
Rashaad Penny @HOU Allen Lazard CHI
Ronald Jones BUF Freddie Swain @HOU
Rex Burkhead SEA DEFENSIVE TEAMS
Latavius Murray @CLE BEST BETS Opp
D. Singletary @TB Chargers NYG
Peyton Barber @KC GREAT STARTS Opp
Matt Breida @TB Saints @NYJ
J.D. McKissic DAL SOLID STARTERS Opp
Dalvin Cook PIT Buccaneers BUF
D’Andre Swift @DEN Broncos DET
Elijah Mitchell @CIN Titans JAC
Mark Ingram @NYJ Packers CHI
TIGHT ENDS Seahawks @HOU
BEST BETS Opp FRINGE FANTASY PLAYS Opp
Travis Kelce LVR Panthers ATL
George Kittle @CIN Cowboys @WAS
GREAT STARTS Opp Chiefs LVR
Mark Andrews @CLE 49ers @CIN
SOLID STARTERS Opp Vikings PIT
Rob Gronkowski BUF Bengals SF
Pat Freiermuth @MIN Ravens @CLE
Dawson Knox @TB Cardinals LAR
T.J. Hockenson @DEN Browns BAL
Evan Engram @LAC Jets NO
Tyler Conklin PIT Rams @ARI
FRINGE FANTASY PLAYS Opp Steelers @MIN
R. Seals-Jones DAL Bills @TB
Dalton Schultz @WAS Football Team DAL
Austin Hooper BAL SIT ‘EM IF YOU GOT ‘EM Opp
Zach Ertz LAR Jaguars @TEN
Gerald Everett @HOU Falcons @CAR
Cole Kmet @GB Lions @DEN
Noah Fant DET Raiders @KC
Kyle Pitts @CAR Giants @LAC
SIT ‘EM IF YOU GOT ‘EM Opp Bears @GB
C.J. Uzomah SF Texans SEA
Foster Moreau @KC
Darren Waller @KC
David Njoku BAL
Jared Cook NYG
J. O’Shaughnessy @TEN
Tyler Higbee @ARI
Brevin Jordan SEA