Tag: San Diego Padres betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets

San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (7-3) and Pittsburgh Pirates (3-6) tangle in a Monday evening game at PNC Park with a 6:35 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Yu Darvish is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. Over the last two seasons (2020-21) combined, Darvish is 8-3 with a 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 86 2/3 IP over 14 starts. Darvish faced the Pirates once last season and tossed 6 innings of scoreless, 2-hit ball.

RHP Trevor Cahill is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. Over 12 appearances in 2020 and 2021, Cahill is 1-3 with a 4.97 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 29 IP. He’s looking for a bounce-back after allowing seven runs in four frames against the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday. Cahill has often struggled out of the gate with a first-month OPS of .800-plus in four of his last six seasons.

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Padres at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Pirates +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-135) | Pirates +1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Padres 6, Pirates 4

Money line (ML)

PASS: The Padres have enough value, even on the minus side, on the run-line play.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Padres are 3-0 in road games against the run line. The San Diego offense has been just fine so far with a .759 OPS), but since April 4 the Friars have hit just .174 with runners in scoring position. This Padres offense is capable of more. It’s one that has hit Cahill well in the past (.977 OPS), although in small doses in just 29 plate appearances.

Add in a bullpen clicking on all cylinders with a 0.84 ERA, and the visitors are a decent play on the run line. TAKE SAN DIEGO -1.5 (-135).

Over/Under (O/U)

The factors underpinning a call on the total have some cross signals. Both clubs have leaned toward the Under so far this season (combined 12-4 mark), but tag Monday’s contest — with a projected hitter’s breeze — and some more offense in the tank for perhaps both teams as being a potential double-digit game.

TAKE THE OVER 8 (-110) on a slight lean.

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San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (5-3) try to pick up where they left off with starter Joe Musgrove’s Friday no-hitter when they play the Texas Rangers (3-4) in Game 2 Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

  • Season series: Padres 1-0

RHP Chris Paddack (0-1) takes the mound for the Padres. In his first start of 2021, he lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks 3-1 Sunday. He pitched four innings, giving up two earned runs on four hits and three walks with three strikeouts.

  • 2020 vs. Rangers: 0-0 in 6 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 5 K, 2 BB at home in his only career appearance against Texas

RHP Jordan Lyles (1-0) is making his second start of the year for the Rangers. Lyles beat the Kansas City Royals 7-3 Sunday in his first outing of the season. He pitched 5 2/3 innings, surrendering two earned runs on five hits with eight strikeouts and no walks.

  • 2020 vs. Padres: 0-1 with 4 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 K, 1 BB in 1 start

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Padres at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:07 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Rangers +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+100) | Rangers +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Rangers 6, Padres 5

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to RANGERS (+135) for a half unit, but I like the RANGERS (+125) in the FIRST 5 INNINGS even better because I don’t have a lot of confidence in San Diego’s starter.

One of the biggest complaints seamheads or Padres fans have about Paddack is his limited pitch arsenal, which pretty much is only a fastball and changeup.

In his first two seasons in the big leagues, 89% of Paddack’s pitches were either the fastball or changeup, but in his last start vs. the Diamondbacks that climbed to 100%.

Also, Paddack struggles on the road for his career. He’s just 4-7, allowing a full run more per nine with a 1.19 WHIP (0.94 WHIP at home) and Paddack has given up nine more homers in one fewer inning pitched away from San Diego.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the RANGERS +1.5 (-120) for a half unit because San Diego’s bullpen is obviously well-rested and leads the Majors in ERA whereas Texas ‘pen is 25th in ERA and 22nd in WHIP.

According to Pregame.com, 75% of the wagers are on San Diego’s run line, but the “House” has made Texas’ run line more expensive. For me, it’s a red flag when bookmakers make the more popular side cheaper.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (+100) for a half unit for a few reasons.

Lyles has a 4.91 ERA in his last five starts against the Padres and Paddack’s limited pitch arsenal combined with an inherent bounce-back effort from the Rangers lineup steers me toward the Over.

Finally, far more money is on the Over while more bets have been placed on the Under.

Typically, it’s more profitable to follow the money in sports gambling rather than the crowd.

The OVER 9 (+100) is my favorite play in Padres-Rangers.

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San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (4-3) start a three-game interleague set with the Texas Rangers (3-3) at Globe Life Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Joe Musgrove (1-0) is San Diego’s projected starter Friday.

Musgrove pitched six scoreless innings, giving up three hits, striking out eight with no walks and got the win in San Diego’s 7-0 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday.

Last season while at the Pittsburgh Pirates, Musgrove was 1-5 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 8 starts.

RHP Kohei Arihara (0-0) makes his second career start for the Rangers Friday.

The 28-year-old Arihara was in line to win his MLB debut but ended up with a no-decision after pitching five innings and giving up three earned runs in Texas’ 11-4 loss to the Kansas City Royals.

Even though Arihara gave a lead to the Texas bullpen, he only had one strikeout with a 50% hard-hit rate, 5.80 SIERA and 6.24 xFIP against Kansas City.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Padres at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -190  (bet $190 to win $100) | Rangers +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-120) |  Rangers +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Padres 11, Rangers 1

Money line (ML)

The Padres (-190) might tee off on the Rangers (+155), but that’s evident in the pricing, which is a little too expensive for my taste.

However, San Diego’s implied probability based on the money line is 65.5%, and that equates to roughly 100 wins in a 162-game season. If this Padres team played this Rangers team 162 times, they’d comfortably win 100 games.

PASS with a “LEAN” to Padres (-190) because I’d entertain putting them in a parlay with Cleveland’s money line for a plus-money payout.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET PADRES -1.5 (-120) for 1.25 units. San Diego’s lineup is top-5 vs. righties in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS since the beginning of last season.

Finally, Musgrove is a pitcher I’m going to be looking to bet on a lot this season because San Diego rescued him from a bad Pittsburgh team that wasted his good stuff.

According to Statcast, he was in the 93rd percentile for exit velocity, 90th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in whiff%.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-120) for a quarter-unit if at all. Globe Life Field has been a notoriously hitter-friendly park, and the Rangers were 2-0-1 to the Under in their first three home games of the season.

My hesitation with the Over is because I’m buying Musgrove’s stock this season, and the Padres have the lowest bullpen ERA and second-lowest WHIP in the Majors.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (2-3) and San Diego Padres (4-2) close out a three-game series with a Wednesday matinee at Petco Park. First pitch will be at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Kevin Gausman is the projected starting pitcher for the Giants. Last year, the veteran hurler went 3-3 with a 3.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 11.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 59 2/3 IP over 12 appearances. Gausman allowed just four base runners in 6 2/3 IP in his 2021 debut vs. Seattle.

LHP Blake Snell takes the pill for the Padres. In 2020 with Tampa Bay, Snell went 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 50 IP over 11 starts. The 28-year-old went 4 2/3 scoreless frames in his Padres debut (April 2 vs. Arizona). Snell walked two and punched out eight.

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Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Padres -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-150) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Padres 5, Giants 3

Money line (ML)

Peg Kevin Gausman as a bounce-back candidate after his fine season debut against the Mariners. Gausman has a history as a slow starter (.770 OPS allowed in March/April appearances).

The Padres are without SS Fernando Tatis, Jr. (shoulder), and that may be impacting San Diego fade bettors a bit too much. A year ago, the Friars went 8-2 against the Giants, and overall San Diego was a robust 21-11 on its home turf.

TAKE SAN DIEGO -160.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Padres went 8-2 against the Giants last season and outscored San Francisco 59-35. San Diego won more than one-third of its games by 5-plus runs in 2020.

CONSIDER PADRES -1.5 (+125) AS A SMALLER-UNIT PLAY IN WEDNESDAY’S MATINEE GET-AWAY GAME.

Over/Under (O/U)

The NL West foes have split two low-scoring games so far in the series.  The best arms in the bullpens are a bit less available for this one. Peg the rubber match as a line watch: consider the evenly priced OVER 7.5 (-115).

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (2-2) and San Diego Padres (3-2) play the second game of a three-game set Tuesday at 10:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Aaron Sanchez is the projected starting pitcher for the Giants. He was 5-14 with a 5.89 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 131 1/3 IP in his 27 starts in 2019 with the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros. He hasn’t pitched in a Major League game since Aug. 20, 2019, after having reconstructive shoulder surgery.

RHP Yu Darvish is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 over 4 2/3 IP through his first start of the 2021 season. He hasn’t faced the Giants since Aug. 21, 2019, when he allowed 7 runs – 6 earned – and 7 hits in 5 1/3 innings with no walks and 8 strikeouts in a no-decision as a member of the Chicago Cubs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Padres -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-115) | Padres -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Padres 6, Giants 2

Money line (ML)

The Padres (-200) are a risky play at two times your potential return, although I do expect them to bounce back after losing the series opener.

San Diego’s offense should get back on track against Sanchez, although the Padres did lose SS Fernando Tatis Jr. to a left shoulder subluxation Monday. He will be forced to miss some time.

PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The PADRES -1.5 (-105) are a better play at near even money despite the lack of Tatis.

They’re facing a guy who hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since Aug. 2019. Sanchez could come in rather tentative, or he could be amped up which could lead to a lot of mistakes. Either way, it’s hard to imagine Sanchez keeping the Giants in this one.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 7.5 (-115) is the lean in Game 2 of this series.

Again, it has been a while since Sanchez has pitched, so the Padres should be able to jump all over him early.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (1-2) and San Diego Padres (3-1) tangle in a Monday night NL West series opener at Petco Park. First pitch will be at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Anthony DeSclafani is the projected starting pitcher for the Giants. Last year for the Cincinnati Reds, the veteran hurler went 1-2 with a 7.22 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, and 4.3 BB/9 in 33 2/3 IP over nine games (seven starts). DeSclafani has allowed a mere .608 OPS in nine career March/April games.

LHP Adrian Morejon is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. In 2020, Morejon went 2-2 with a 4.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 in 19 1/3 IP over nine appearances (four starts). The third-year Major Leaguer has big stuff; his ERA in 2020 was inflated by 39% of fly balls allowed leaving the yard. Morejon throws 96, and he induced a 13.0% swinging-strike rate last summer.

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Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Padres -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-150) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Padres 4, Giants 3

Money line (ML)

DeSclafani had a solid spring and the Giants are the lean if any price bounce avails itself. The tag here plummeted in the morning.

Take the Giants if you can wait out a +130.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BACK THE GIANTS +1.5 (-150).

San Francisco figures to be at its best against lefty pitching.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Under 8.5 (-115) is the lean, but on a humid night with an outward breeze and plenty of pitching uncertainly, a PASS is suggested.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (0-3) and San Diego Padres (3-0) close out a four-game series Sunday at 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Taylor Widener takes the ball for the Diamondbacks. A year ago, he went 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, and 5.4 BB/9 in 20 IP over 12 relief appearances. Widener was stretched out as a starter in spring training. He finished the Cactus League with a 3.68 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 14 2/3 innings.

RHP Chris Paddack is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. In 2020, he went 4-5 with a 4.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 in 59 IP over 12 starts. Current Arizona batters own an aggregate .555 OPS against the 25-year-old righty.

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Diamondbacks at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:09 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Diamondbacks +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Padres -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-105) | Padres -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3

Money line (ML)

San Diego went 31-16 against under-.500 teams in 2020. The Friars have a versatile top-10 offense, and its one that figures to be at its best against right-handers.

The Snakes have had their struggles against Paddack. The Friars hurler was undone by a high rate of fly balls leaving the yard a year ago. Advanced-analytic ERA measures are kinder to Paddack than the 4.73 surface mark he posted in 2020. The last five times San Diego had two-game win streaks last season, it turned them into three-game win streaks.

Take the PADRES -225.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS in this wind-in, pitcher’s park game with Paddack being a starter whose skills outpace his stats.

Over/Under (O/U)

The forecast calls for a 10-mile-an-hour breeze in the hitters’ faces. Peg this one as a get-away-day six-or-seven-run contest.

Take UNDER 9 (-115).

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