The San Diego Padres (5-3) try to pick up where they left off with starter Joe Musgrove’s Friday no-hitter when they play the Texas Rangers (3-4) in Game 2 Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
- Season series: Padres 1-0
RHP Chris Paddack (0-1) takes the mound for the Padres. In his first start of 2021, he lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks 3-1 Sunday. He pitched four innings, giving up two earned runs on four hits and three walks with three strikeouts.
- 2020 vs. Rangers: 0-0 in 6 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 5 K, 2 BB at home in his only career appearance against Texas
RHP Jordan Lyles (1-0) is making his second start of the year for the Rangers. Lyles beat the Kansas City Royals 7-3 Sunday in his first outing of the season. He pitched 5 2/3 innings, surrendering two earned runs on five hits with eight strikeouts and no walks.
- 2020 vs. Padres: 0-1 with 4 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 K, 1 BB in 1 start
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Padres at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:07 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Rangers +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+100) | Rangers +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Rangers 6, Padres 5
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to RANGERS (+135) for a half unit, but I like the RANGERS (+125) in the FIRST 5 INNINGS even better because I don’t have a lot of confidence in San Diego’s starter.
One of the biggest complaints seamheads or Padres fans have about Paddack is his limited pitch arsenal, which pretty much is only a fastball and changeup.
In his first two seasons in the big leagues, 89% of Paddack’s pitches were either the fastball or changeup, but in his last start vs. the Diamondbacks that climbed to 100%.
Also, Paddack struggles on the road for his career. He’s just 4-7, allowing a full run more per nine with a 1.19 WHIP (0.94 WHIP at home) and Paddack has given up nine more homers in one fewer inning pitched away from San Diego.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the RANGERS +1.5 (-120) for a half unit because San Diego’s bullpen is obviously well-rested and leads the Majors in ERA whereas Texas ‘pen is 25th in ERA and 22nd in WHIP.
According to Pregame.com, 75% of the wagers are on San Diego’s run line, but the “House” has made Texas’ run line more expensive. For me, it’s a red flag when bookmakers make the more popular side cheaper.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (+100) for a half unit for a few reasons.
Lyles has a 4.91 ERA in his last five starts against the Padres and Paddack’s limited pitch arsenal combined with an inherent bounce-back effort from the Rangers lineup steers me toward the Over.
Finally, far more money is on the Over while more bets have been placed on the Under.
Typically, it’s more profitable to follow the money in sports gambling rather than the crowd.
The OVER 9 (+100) is my favorite play in Padres-Rangers.
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