Tag: Giants Padres odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The San Diego Padres (2-2) welcome the San Francisco Giants (1-1) to Petco Park for the 3rd of a 4-game series Saturday. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

The Padres lost their season-opening game 5-2 to the Los Angeles Dodgers but won the following 2, scoring at least 6 in both games. In its 4th game of the season, San Diego lost to the Giants 8-3. It has yet to hold a team to under 4 runs. The Padres finished 3rd in the National League West last season with an 82-80 record. They were 44-37 at home.

The Giants lost to the Padres 6-4 on Opening Day as a slight underdog then took down the Padres 8-3 Friday, closing +124 on the moneyline. The Giants have the league’s 10th-highest payroll, so expectations are high for them this season. San Fran finished last season 79-83 and was 34-47 on the road. They are 1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season and 2-0 O/U.

Giants at Padres projected starters

RHP Jordan Hicks vs. RHP Dylan Cease

Hicks (3-9, 3.29 ERA) made 65 appearances and 0 starts in 2023. He owned a 1.35 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 65 2/3 IP.

• 2023 road splits: 2-3, 0.87 ERA (31 IP, 3 ER — 2 HR), 9 BB, 42 K in 31 appearances.
• Hasn’t pitched against San Diego since April 7, 2019
• Spent last season split between the Cardinals and Blue Jays

Cease (7-9, 4.58 ERA) made 33 starts last season for the White Sox. He finished with a 1.42 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 177 IP.

• 2023 home splits: 3-7, 4.20 ERA (94 1/3 IP, 44 ER — 8 HR), 48 BB, 104 K in 17 starts
• White Sox were 16-17 in the 33 games Cease started last season
• 2023 vs. San Francisco: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER (1 HR), 5 BB, 1 H in a 7-3 home victory

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Giants at Padres odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Giants +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Padres -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-194) | Padres -1.5 (+160)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Giants at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Giants 3

Moneyline

BET PADRES (-130).

The Giants will likely play most of their game from the bullpen with Hicks transitioning to the rotation. San Fran didn’t have a terrific set or relievers last season, finishing 14th in the MLB in reliever ERA.

San Diego was solid at home last season, ending 44-37. It was also 43-37 following a loss last season. The Padres should have the pitching edge and have tallied at least 6 runs in 2 of their last 3 games.

Take the home side here and back PADRES (-130).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s no real value here. The Giants are too expensive to play as a run-line underdog while the Padres are too risky to take as a run-line favorite. Ultimately, the moneyline has the best team-specific value.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-112).

If there’s one thing both teams have done well this season, it is hit the Over. The Padres are averaging 8 runs per game over their last 3 games and are 3-1 O/U on the season.

The Giants are 2-0 O/U and have scored at least 4 per game while allowing 4.5 per game in their 2 performances this season. Neither team has an ace taking the mound.

With that in mind, expect the offenses to stay hot and take OVER 7.5 (-112).

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The San Francisco Giants (0-1) and San Diego Padres (2-1) play the 2nd game of a 4-game set Friday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 1-0

San Francisco dropped Thursday’s series opener 6-4. With the setback, the Giants are now 2-5 across their last 7 season openers. Dating back to last September, San Francisco is 1-6 in their last 7 games against San Diego.

San Diego plated 4 runs in the bottom of the 7th inning, pulling off a comeback from a 3-2 deficit in Thursday’s contest. The Padres went 4 of 12 with runners in scoring position.

Giants at Padres projected starters

LHP Kyle Harrison vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

Harrison (1-1, 4.15 ERA in 2023) makes his 1st start this season and 8th of his career. He had a 1.15 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 34 2/3 innings last season.

• 2023 with Sacramento (AAA): 1-3, 4.66 ERA (65 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 48 BB in 20 starts
• 2023 road stats: 0-1, 6.28 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 10 ER) in 3 starts
• Career vs. Padres: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 1 start, a 6-1 road loss Sept. 2, 2023

Musgrove (0-0, 16.88 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 5 ER on 7 H and 2 BB with 2 K in 2 2/3 IP in his debut vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in Seoul, South Korea March 21.

• Missed last 3 months of 2023 with a shoulder injury
• Per ESPN, has held current Giants batters to a collective .627 OPS
• 2023 stats: 10-3, 3.05 ERA (97 1/3 IP, 33 ER) in 17 starts
• 2023 home stats: 6-1, 3.04 ERA (56 1/3 IP, 19 ER) in 10 starts
• 2023 vs. Giants: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 16-11 home win April 29
• Career vs. Giants: 4-3, 3.86 ERA (74 2/3 IP, 32 ER) in 13 starts

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Giants at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Giants +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Padres -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-165) | Padres -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Giants at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Giants 4

Moneyline

The San Diego weather report calls for an outward breeze, and Harrison figures as a fly-ball pitcher. There are questions on both sides of this mound match-up, but Musgrove figures as the more projectable and dependable hurler.

The Friars (-150) do have a left-leaning lineup and one that struggled against port-siders in 2023 (.683 OPS), but in his rookie-season small sample, Harrison did not exactly mow down lefty batters (1.068 OPS allowed).

Dating back to last August, San Diego is 11-4 across its last 15 games at Petco Park.

BET PADRES (-150).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: Peg the ML as having the best leverage in this matchup.

Over/Under

The last 9 games of this series have seen the winning club score at least 5 runs. Peg the Padre bats as having some confidence after Thursday’s comeback. San Francisco had a robust .817 OPS in spring training, and batters on both sides get the likely benefit of a breeze blowing out.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the best value price here: BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-112).

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The San Francisco Giants (0-0) open the season against the San Diego Padres (1-1) on Thursday. The NL West rivals meet at Petco Park with 1st pitch scheduled for a 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Padres won last year’s series 8-5

By many accounts, San Diego underplayed its talent level in going 82-80 a year ago. The Padres, now several pieces lighter after shedding salary, placed 3rd in the NL West, 3 games ahead of San Francisco.

The Giants went 79-83 last season. They were quite good May-June, going 35-20 with a run differential to match. But San Francisco faded down the stretch, especially late. They went just 9-19 after Sept. 1.

Thursday’s game marks the Giants’ season opener. The Friars split 2 feature games against the Los Angeles Dodgers on March 20-21 in Seoul, South Korea.

Giants at Padres projected starters

Logan Webb vs Yu Darvish

Webb went 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA last season. He logged a 1.07 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 216 IP last season.

• Owns a tidy 3.07 ERA across the last 3 seasons (92 games)
• Faced San Diego just once last season, allowing 1 run in 9 IP
• Struggled in spring training, allowing 37 hits and 26 ER in 21 1/13 IP

Darvish went 8-10 with a 4.56 ERA last season. He notched a 1.3 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 across 136 1/3 IP.

• Started March 20 game vs. Dodgers in South Korea: went 3 2/3 IP, allowing 1 unearned run on 2 H with 3 BB and 3 K
• Pitched 12 IP against the Giants in 2023: allowed 8 R on 12 H

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Giants at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:45 9.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Giants -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Padres -115 (bet $100 to win $115)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants -1.5 (+210) | Padres +1.5 (-170)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Giants at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Giants 4, Padres 3

Moneyline

The Giants are a decent futures play in 2024, and Webb on the mound puts a good foot forward for the visitors. Plus the Giants banged the ball around pretty good in Cactus League play. Their .817 OPS ranked 3rd in MLB batting.

San Diego has to deal with the baseball rarity of multi-day travel and extra off days.

BET SAN FRANCISCO (-105).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: Peg the ML as having the best leverage in this matchup.

Over/Under

The Under has cashed in 5 straight San Francisco-San Diego meetings and is the slight lean here.

The pitching starts at (mostly) square one for both sides. Rotations are at the top and bullpens are fresh. Mix in a weather report that calls for a double-digit win blowing in from left, and the low side is the way to go.

BACK THE UNDER 7.5 (-110).

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The San Francisco Giants (70-64) and San Diego Padres (62-73) meet Friday at  9:40 p.m. ET for the 2nd game of a 4-game series at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Giants lead 4-3

San Francisco won Thursday’s series opener 7-2, and the Giants are 4-1 over their last 5 games. They are also 4-1 across the last 5 games of their season series with the Padres.

San Diego has lost 3 straight games and 6 of its last 7. The Friars own a shaky 4.54 ERA over their last 12 games.

Giants at Padres projected starters

RHP Tristan Beck vs. RHP Michael Wacha

Beck (3-2, 3.52 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 30th appearance. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 71 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K in 8-5 home win vs. Atlanta Braves Sunday
• 2023 road stats: 0-1, 2.25 ERA in 32 IP across 15 relief appearances
• Has never faced the Padres as a starter

Wacha (10-2, 2.84 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8 K/9 through 101 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 5 K in a 10-6 loss at Milwaukee Brewers Sunday
• 2023 home stats: 7-2, 2.21 ERA in 57 IP across 10 starts
• Last 5 starts vs. Giants: 1-0, 2.52 ERA in 25 IP (2016-23)
• Has made just 3 starts in the 2nd half — all since Aug. 15 — after missing time in July-August with a shoulder injury
• Faced the Giants on June 19: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 0 K in 7-4 road loss
• Has benefited from a .252 batting average on balls in play this season

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Giants at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:06 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Giants +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Padres -135 (bet $134 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Off the board
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: -+100)

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Giants at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Giants 4

Moneyline

Wacha is a definite fade. He is fortunate to have an ERA under 4.00 let alone under 3.00 considering the quality of contact he allows and his rates for walks, whiffs and ground balls.

San Diego is the overall team lean without any pitching attached. Add in Wacha going against a bullpen combo for San Francisco. It equals a PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

This play is OTB but I have no interest in a side either way, even when this line is released. PASS.

Over/Under

Beck has been a long reliever this season, but his pitch count jumped a couple of levels when he threw 70 pitches in his last start. How does he bounce back in this one?

Both starters — especially Wacha — are fly-ball hurlers. The weather report for this one calls for a 10-mile-an-hour breeze blowing out.

The Friars’ offense has been a disappointing one, with San Diego averaging just 4.47 runs per game. The Padres have been awful in high-leverage situations, and in those clutch plate appearances, they’ve logged a very low .247 BABIP.

FanDuel Sportsbook has an OVER 8 (-114) on the board, and that’s a solid play in this one.

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