Tag: Ryan Nielsen

Breaking down the issues with the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense

Breaking down the issues with the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter their Week 10 home bout against Minnesota with questions surrounding their defensive play which has been, at best, inconsistent since early in the campaign.

Jacksonville’s offense has become a strength as the season has progressed, at least when it has been healthy, with much of its success coming from quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s right arm, the legs of second-year running back Tank Bigsby and the hands of rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.

However, the Jaguars’ defense continues to give up numerous big plays every week. The unit currently ranks in the bottom five in points allowed per game and expected points added (EPA) per play allowed.

Jaguars Wire takes a closer look at why the defense has struggled and what improvements are needed at the halfway point.

Inconsistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks

On paper, Jacksonville has enough talent to be an aggressive defense, especially when it comes to getting pressure on the quarterback. First-year defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen relies on his four-man fronts to generate the pressures without the constant need for blitzes.

While the experiment looked promising in Week 1, it has not been successful in the eight games since. The Jaguars have the 11th-fewest pressures in the league, the fourth-lowest quarterback pressure percentage, the sixth-lowest sack rate, and the lowest blitz rate.

Defensive linemen are not winning at the point of attack. Some are not winning their matchups and struggle to generate effective pass-rush moves and combinations to defeat their blocks.

The only exceptions are defensive ends Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, who have been terrors in recent weeks against opposing offensive tackles. Both pass rushers have 34 pressures each while the rest of the defense has 31 in total.

For the Jaguars to improve their efficiency in chasing the quarterback, Nielsen must begin to be more creative in generating pressure. They also must sacrifice some of their man coverage deployment. This leads to the next issue.

Jacksonville must become more diverse with its coverage calls

In theory, man-heavy defenses can be successful. You need stout defensive linemen in the trenches, especially ones that can generate pressure and win one-on-one matchups consistently.

Linebackers must have the athleticism and fluidity to cover running backs and tight ends. Cornerbacks need to be physically at the line of scrimmage while also bestowing steady technique in their footwork and press jams.

Jacksonville doesn’t have enough of those kinds of players. This defense continues to struggle more often than not in this regard. Its contributors’ skill sets are not fit for man-heavy defenses that force little margin for error.

According to Football Insights, the Jaguars have played man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL this season behind Detroit while having one of the lowest zone coverage rates in the league. They are a true Cover 1 and Cover 2-man unit.

It’s a defense that could turn itself around quickly with more Cover 3 and quarters coverage while maintaining their base looks out of single or two-high.

If Jacksonville is to turn its season around by some miracle, diversifying the coverage variations would allow a talented unit to play to their strengths instead of being forced out of position through the system.

Better discipline in all phases is required

Earlier in the season, it looked like the Jaguars were set to have a stout defense, especially with their performances against Miami and Cleveland in the first two weeks. Instead, the defense has turned into one of the league’s worst.

While Jacksonville has a talented defense, it remains undisciplined in all phases. While plenty of the blame can be placed on the players themselves, this is a coaching issue and it starts with defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen.

Defenders have struggled to tackle in space and the statistics can back this up. The Jaguars have allowed the most yards after the catch (1,379), the 11th-most YAC over-expected (plus-147) and the most yards per play in the league (6.0).

Nielsen’s unit has been giving up way too many big plays this season. A couple of notable ones have been against Green Bay and Philadelphia in the last two weeks.

 

On film, players are often out of position relative to their assignments and responsibilities, specifically against the pass. For a defense that was supposed to be a strength this season, its lack of success falls on coaching and a lack of proper fundamentals instilled.

Head coach Doug Pederson replaced most of his defensive staff coaching from last season yet the unit has regressed under new leadership. It is now fair to wonder if Pederson will get another chance to fix the unit’s issues this offseason.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Key matchups

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Key matchups

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter Week 9 coming off a rough loss to Green Bay at home and look to get back into the win column in a tough road matchup in Philadelphia.

However, the Jaguars may be without several key players at key positions this weekend. This could pose some issues for a team that is looking to secure their second win in three weeks. A win against the Eagles could boost a ton of confidence into a roster and coaching staff that needs it.

Philadelphia has seemed to right the ship after a rocky start to the season, having played some of its best football in all phases in recent weeks. Jacksonville looks to slow their momentum and steal the home field advantage in this weekend’s late Sunday afternoon bout.

Jaguars Wire takes a closer look at a couple of the key matchups against the Eagles that could be critical in securing win No. 3 for the Jaguars.

Jacksonville’s skill players vs. Philadelphia’s secondary

The Jaguars got beat up this past weekend against the Packers.

Standout slot receiver Christian Kirk went down with a broken collarbone and is out for the season. Rookie sensation Brian Thomas Jr. is said to be a game-time decision with a rib injury but head coach Doug Pederson suggested earlier this week it will likely come down to pain tolerance for team’s top playmaker. Receiver Gabe Davis is also nursing a shoulder injury.

This means second-year wideout Parker Washington, top tight end Evan Engram, Tim Jones, and a practice squad call-up could be the ones trotting out against a sound Eagles secondary.

Philadelphia is getting some quality play from some of their younger talents, including rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. While Darius Slay is out with a groin injury this week, the Eagles have capable depth in Kelee Ringo and Isaiah Rodgers.

Their safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Reed Blankenship, and Sydney Brown make up the rest of a secondary that is built to take on the vertical stretching ability of the Jaguars offense.

The Eagles 57.1 passer rating against deep targets is the fifth-lowest in football, according to Next Gen Stats. This doesn’t bold well for Trevor Lawrence skill players, especially if Thomas can’t go this weekened.

Yet, should Thomas be healthy, it will be a significant boost for an offense that will need him to continue to be the top playmaker he has been this season. Look for the Eagles to play plenty of disguised coverages from a Cover 3 base alignment that will allow them to rotate to play more match and quarters coverage.

Jacksonville’s defense vs. Philadelphia’s offense

This is seemingly nightmare fuel for a Jaguars defense that is in the bottom-five in most statistical defenses.

Quarterback Jalen Hurts and running back Saquon Barkley have been terrors on the ground against opposing defenses. These two have allowed the Eagles to field the second-best rushing offense in the NFL behind the juggernaut Baltimore Ravens run game.

It doesn’t help that wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have been outstanding this season in the passing game, posing more trouble for a lowly Jaguars secondary.

Jacksonville has struggled to penetrate the backfield consistently this season despite the talents of pass rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker along with interior linemen DaVon Hamilton and Arik Armstead. Inconsistency has been a constant theme for defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen and his defense overall.

Putting it bluntly, this is not a well-coached defense and a man-heavy system that has put players on all three levels in a disadvantageous position. However, the key to finding some improvement is simple: an increase in zone coverage variations and blitzes.

Jacksonville has the lowest blitz-rate in the league and that must change if they want to give their secondary a chance to make plays on pressure-influenced passes. If this were to happen Sunday and the Jaguars force Hurts into bad decisions with the football, there is a path to a successful day against a strong Eagles offense.

Key matchups ahead of Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots

Key matchups ahead of Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter their final game in London hoping to end their overseas trip on a high note as they take on the New England Patriots. Both teams sit at 1-5 looking for their second win of the season and some glimmer of hope as the campaign approaches halfway.

The Jaguars have another opportunity to pick up a win against a lowly opponent and can do so with the resurgent Trevor Lawrence under center. The biggest questions Jacksonville faces now are if the coaching staff can develop a steady game plan and if the offense can display better ball security.

Jaguars Wire takes a closer look at a few key matchups in the Jaguars “home” bout against the Patriots as they look to return to the United States encouragement and intrigue.

Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby vs. Patriots run defense

One of the few bright spots from Jacksonville’s 1-5 campaign to this point has to be the emergence of Bigsby. The second-year tailback from Auburn leads the NFL with 7.2 yards per carry (minimum of 20 carries) and his explosiveness has not gone unnoticed with plus-143 yards over expected, the third-most in football, according to Next Gen Stats.

Bigsby is the total package as he is a shifty runner who generates yards after contact thanks to his low center of gravity and contact balance. Furthermore, he’s become another explosive element for the Jaguars offense that is near the top of the league in big plays.

Bigsby enters Sunday with a favorable matchup against the Patriots’ defense, which ranks in the bottom 10 in RYOE allowed and a below-average run defense in most categories. The Jaguars should stay committed to the ground game this week, especially with an offensive line that has improved in run blocking and overall play in recent weeks.

If Bigsby were to receive at least 15 touches Sunday, it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see the young running back have another explosive day and carry Jacksonville to a win.

Jaguars defense vs. Patriots QB Drake Maye

It has become clear that Jacksonville defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen does not have the personnel capable of consistently operating a man coverage-heavy defense. His unit is next to last in points allowed and in the bottom five in most statistical pass-defense categories, including allowing over 225 yards passing in all but one game this season.

If Jacksonville wants to right the ship, Nielsen must change the way he is calling this defense. There needs to be a more balanced approach in man and zone coverage calls. The Jaguars have the personnel defensively to field a sound zone defense, but the players are not often placed in a position to succeed in coverage. 

That could excite Patriots rookie signal-caller Drake Maye. However, his outlook could be dampened considering the Jaguars have been adequate in terms of applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Jacksonville is one of six teams to have multiple defenders with more than 20 pressures this season, per Next Gen Stats. Pass rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker have been terrific this season and have shown why they are core defensive pieces for the foreseeable future.

New England leads the league in pressure rate allowed, meanwhile, which might spell trouble for the young Maye.

The No. 3 overall selection from North Carolina may be an escape artist of sorts, but the NFL is a different beast and attempting to evade the likes of Walker and Hines-Allen is never an easy task.

Jacksonville’s path to success begins with getting consistent pressure on a rookie quarterback behind New England’s subpar offensive line.

Jaguars TE Evan Engram vs. Patriots defensive secondary

Jacksonville was without its No. 1 tight end since Week 2 when he injured his hamstring in pregame warmups before their loss to Cleveland. In his return last Sunday, Engram showed why he’s a crucial piece to the team’s offense, hauling in 10 catches for 102 yards.

Engram is a versatile tight end who has yet to lose an ounce of his athleticism and play-making ability as he has gotten older. Since 2022, he has aligned in the slot at the sixth-highest rate among players at his position with at least 800 snaps, per Next Gen Stats. The Jaguars have also shown they are willing to move him all over the formation as an H-back, fullback, and big slot. 

This will pose an issue for the Patriots, who have allowed the seventh most yards per attempt to tight ends in the slot this season. The days when New England was an above-average defensive unit are over and its secondary has been struggling for most of the season, another reason why this looks to be a favorable game for Jacksonville overall.

Engram will once again be a focal point of the offense as long as he stays healthy. Lawrence’s play has improved in the past two weeks, flashing promise that Jacksonville can continue to be a productive offense so long as the unit can protect the ball and catch it cleanly. 

Analysis: Jaguars trade Roy Robertson-Harris to the Seahawks

Could veteran defensive tackle Arik Armstead contribute more following Roy Robertson-Harris’ departure?

Following Jacksonville’s fifth loss in six games, the Jaguars shipped defensive tackle Roy Robertson-Harris to the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for a 2026 sixth-round draft pick, allowing a fresh start to both parties. 

After a productive first four seasons in the NFL with the Chicago Bears, Robertson-Harris signed a free-agent deal with Jacksonville in March 2021 and earned a three-year contract extension from the club in 2023. He played in black and teal for over three seasons and saw varying levels of success with the Jaguars.

According to Pro Football Focus, Robertson-Harris posted ten sacks, 18 quarterback hits, 81 hurries, 77 tackles and 64 run stops across 1,944 snaps in his first three seasons with Jacksonville. Robertson-Harris graded out best as a Jaguar in 2022, his second season with the team, with a 63.9 defensive score out of 100. 

In the first six games of 2024, Robertson-Harris recorded four tackles, two sacks, two quarterback hits and seven pressures over 210 snaps, 140 of which came against the pass, per PFF. 

Robertson-Harris’ impact along the interior has largely declined, which led to his rotational role in Jacksonville’s lackluster defense under first-year coordinator Ryan Nielsen. 

The Jaguars rank No. 31 in the NFL in touchdowns allowed (21), only to be outdone by Carolina, which has allowed 24 touchdowns in six games.

Jacksonville’s defensive issues stem in part from its inconsistent pass rush, which has helped cause the Jaguars to rank dead last in passing touchdowns allowed in the NFL with 14 through six games. Their 14 sacks are tied with four other teams for 12th-fewest in the league. 

With Robertson-Harris gone and interior snaps to fill, the Jaguars could deploy 30-year-old lineman Arik Armstead, who has struggled in his move to defensive end, back to the position he played and thrived at with the San Francisco 49ers, tackle.

162 of Armstead’s 198 defensive snaps have come at defensive end this year. 

While the Jaguars’ coaching staff was adamant about moving Armstead around the front this past offseason, the veteran has yet to produce to the tune of his three-year, $43.5 million price tag. 

So far this season, Armstead’s play has been rather unnoticeable. He recorded one sack against Miami in Week 1, but has logged just seven tackles in his five games since, with none in the backfield.

While Armstead could be dealing with lingering effects from his 2023 meniscus injury, which prevented him from playing in the preseason, and aging in general, his drop-off in production as a defensive end compared to when he primarily played defensive tackle is clear.

Upon signing with Jacksonville in March, Armstead said he was “very confident” in his body to hold up, explaining to reporters that he could continue to play at a high level for the foreseeable future. 

“Injuries are a part of sports and I have my plan together in place to make sure I’m putting my body and myself in the best position to be out there for my team. I’m going to do that, and I think it’s going to go very well,” Armstead said at the time.

“I plan to have a long career; I think I got a good five or six more years in me. I don’t plan on stopping anytime soon.”

Yet, six games into his new contract, Armstead has recorded a 57.7 grade, the second-worst season by PFF’s metric of his ten-year NFL career. 

Given his inefficiency on the edge, the Jaguars should explore moving Armstead back inside to help the prized free-agent addition contribute to the defense, which gave up 226 passing yards and four touchdowns to rookie Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams in Week 6. 

But if Armstead isn’t the answer at defensive tackle, the Jaguars will need their second-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft, Maason Smith, to emerge as one. 

Smith recorded one of Jacksonville’s three sacks against Chicago on Sunday, the first of his career. He has had a relatively quiet rookie season otherwise, however, with five total tackles. He has averaged just over 27 snaps per game over his five appearances.

Jacksonville could also turn to second-year defensive tackle Esezi Otomewo, who started the last two games and accumulated two tackles, two quarterback hits and half a sack against the Colts and Bears. 

Ahead of another London matchup this week, against the Patriots, there is no better time than now to shake things up as the Jaguars continue to search for answers on defense. 

While Robertson-Harris was once a steady contributor to the unit, the Jaguars ultimately viewed him as expendable. They have options to replace him at defensive tackle, but it remains to be seen if the team will deploy them and if the players are up to the task.

All-22 review: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

All-22 review: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter their London road trip with one tick in the win column for the first time since last season, following their 37-34 victory over Indianapolis. 

It was a feel-good victory for a franchise that needed it and saw its offense play its best football of the season. While there were still some inconsistencies with the offensive play-calling and decision-making by the coaching staff, the Jaguars should feel good as they make the trip overseas.

This week, Jaguars Wire takes a closer look at the All-22 to explore some of the standouts from Sunday’s triumph. Let’s take a deeper dive into the game film.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence’s big day

Two games ago, talk began of whether the Jaguars were right to extend Lawrence following a string of games where the former No. 1 draft selection looked lost and broken as a passer. After one game against the lowly Colts defense, that narrative has quieted significantly.

Lawrence was excellent in Sunday’s victory, completing 28-of-34 passes for 371 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. His completion percentage over expected was 10.3 percent along with a 10.8 EPA. The film matches the box score and analytics and it was exciting to watch.

The former Clemson Tiger standout did an excellent job spreading the ball around, including passes to nine different receivers. His offensive line also gave him opportunities to keep himself and the offense on schedule, allowing him to get the ball out with efficiency.

Throughout the game, Lawrence made the correct reads and had great full-field progressions on longer-developing plays. He was accurate and on time with his passes, fitting passes into tight windows and trusting his reads and progressions. Lawrence was able to make the big throws when they were available, including two big completions to wide receivers Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk.

While Lawrence was excellent, he wasn’t perfect, as seen by his interception. Midway into the third quarter on a second-and-intermediate, the Jaguars came out of empty against the Colts’ Cover 4. Instead of taking the open outlets to Kirk in the middle of the field or tight end Brenton Strange underneath off the left tackle, Lawrence chose to test the field vertically and it cost him with a throw into double coverage.

Overall, though, Lawrence must continue stacking performances close to this each week. It will allow him to gain more confidence as a passer while helping his team rack up more wins. 

Key Jaguars defensive performances

While defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen gave up 34 points and nearly 450 total yards, there were still plenty of standouts from this defense despite a rough day.

Cornerback Montaric Brown had a solid day, despite some big plays given up, he never seemed out of position overall. He’s a physical tackler in the run game and is generally a solid press-man corner who displays adequate one and two-hand jams at the line of scrimmage.

Brown will play with physicality in the five-yard contact window and use that to his advantage. He also flashes a patient backpedal that will allow him to mirror receivers more consistently.

In the trenches, pass rusher Travon Walker had an exceptional day with three sacks and three tackles for loss. His speed-to-power was freakish and makes a handful for any opposing offensive tackle. His rare get-off and athleticism will overwhelm them and that was the case on numerous pressures and a couple of his sacks. 

The scary thing about Walker is that he has added more rush combinations that make him a better player. If he continues to take over games like he did Sunday, the rest of the league will begin to take notice of an edge rusher who is on his way to being one of the best in the game. 

Second-year linebacker Ventrell Miller was steady against the Colts with seven tackles while displaying a level of competency in coverage drops. He’s also a physical tackler and doesn’t see ball carrier break his tackles often. 

Miller showed straight-line explosiveness to close through the alley and make tackles for short gains, proving Sunday that he could be in store for more playing time as the linebacker room gets healthy.

Young skill players showed out with explosive games

When Jacksonville drafted Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round this offseason, he offered the ceiling to be a top vertical threat in the NFL in a short time while having plenty of room to grow as a playmaker.

Sunday was the day Thomas finally made a significant impact where defenses had to respect his vertical ability. On his 85-yard touchdown reception, the former LSU standout reached a top speed of 22.15 mph, the fastest by a ball carrier this season and by a Jaguars player in the Next Gen Stats era. 

Thomas continued to show progression as a receiver with separation underneath on short in and out-breaking routes. While he did get free vertically on his long touchdown due to blown coverage, his speed was a sight to see as he zoomed away from the Colts secondary.

As it’s been known for some time, Thomas is great with separation on vertical planes, using the threat of speed to create it. He is still learning, yet progressing, finding spots against empty zone areas while making himself a potential outlet for Lawrence in run-after-catch opportunities.

Second-year running back Tank Bigsby had his breakout game against the Colts, displaying a possible idea of him taking over as the bell-cow ball carrier on Jacksonville’s offense. Bigsby showed quick and choppy footwork that allowed him to work the base of the line of scrimmage and find creases outside the tackle box. 

Bigsby is a shifty runner with adequate contact balance and explosive second-level acceleration. What may come as a surprise is that he leads the NFL in yards after contact per attempt at 5.1, according to Next Gen stats. This is an example of the Jaguars having explosive elements on their offense but not being able to put them in places to succeed consistently within the unit. 

The former Auburn running back is still growing more than a quarter of the way through his second season. His ceiling remains high and big reason why he could find his way as the team’s RB1 by next year. 

Key matchups for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears

Key matchups for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears

The Jacksonville Jaguars are across the pond on their two-week trip abroad, preparing to face Chicago and New England in London. This week, they will be the designated away team against rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and the Bears. 

Jacksonville is coming off its first win of the season after an 0-4 start. Star signal-caller Trevor Lawrence turned in one of the best performances of his career in Sunday’s 37-34 win over Indianapolis, signaling a possible start of a steady stretch of games for the franchise quarterback.

However, the Bears will not be an easy matchup following a productive victory over the Carolina Panthers as Williams produced career-high numbers. 

Jaguars Wire takes a closer look at some of the key matchups for Sunday’s matchup against the 3-2 Bears.

Jacksonville’s rushing offense vs. Chicago’s run defense

A constant of the Jaguars’ offense in 2024 has been their run game, which has begun to alternate between their one-two punch of Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby. The latter exploded last Sunday with a 103-yard game, including a long touchdown run that added another explosive element to Jacksonville’s offense.

While the Bears have played sound defense overall, their Achilles heel to this point has been to defend the run. They currently rank 18th in rushing yards allowed and 15th in rushing allowed, and at times have been pushed around in the trenches, failing to maintain gap discipline and fit the run.

Jacksonville must lean more into the run game this week. Their offensive line has generated movement at the line of scrimmage consistently for two straight weeks, helping them to second in rushing yards per play. 

Bigsby’s role is expanding and the advanced statistics show this. He currently ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards over expected with +142 despite playing in just four games, according to Next Gen Stats. He could be an impact player this Sunday and a crucial piece to Jacksonville’s path to success. 

Jaguars’ passing offense vs. Bears’ secondary

One of the promising signs last week was the Jaguars’ notable progression and improvement in the passing game. They used frequent play-action to open up the run game.

The passing game thrived, too, as Lawrence completed 28-of-34 passes for over 370 yards and two touchdowns. Jacksonville’s offensive line thrived and gave Lawrence ample time in yet another consistent performance.

However, the front five will face a Chicago defense featuring five defenders with double-digit pressures. The Bears’ defensive front owns a quick pressure rate that ranks seventh in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats.

The Bears are a heavy-man defense, which could pose problems for the Jaguars. Last week against Carolina, Chicago limited Andy Dalton to just 136 yards passing with very few outlets to work with.

Jacksonville has struggled against heavy man coverage units this season but with the recent usage of Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas Jr., that could change this week.

Thomas has shown to be an explosive and reliable vertical threat while Kirk has been a separator savant in the slot. The good news for the Jaguars is that versatile tight end Evan Engram returns to the field for the first time since Week 1, giving them another quality piece to counter the Bears’ secondary.

Chicago’s top cornerback, Tyrique Stevenson, is not expected to suit up Sunday in London. His absence could allow Jacksonville to exploit some matchups for another explosive day.

Jacksonville’s defensive line vs. Chicago’s offensive line

Ryan Nielsen’s defense has struggled as of late with some significant letdowns throughout the last few weeks. His unit is now ranked near the bottom of the league in most categories. However, a slew of injuries to key players have led to some inconsistencies with the unit overall.

The Jaguars have a talented defensive line that deploys a constant rotation. They did get pushed around by the Colts last week but face a more favorable matchup against the Bears’ average offensive line.

Jacksonville edge rushers Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen will be a handful. Next Gen Stats shows that after not having seven pressures in any game during his career, Walker has now had two consecutive games of over seven pressures, including three sacks in the Jaguars’ first win of the season. Hines-Allen has begun to emerge as well with back-to-back games of six-plus pressures.

Williams has not faired well against pressure and has put the ball in harm’s way often in an attempt to play hero ball. With Walker and Hines-Allen starting to heat up as of late, that could pose a problem for the rookie signal-caller.

While the Jaguars have succeeded lately on the offensive side of the trenches, the defensive side must step up again this weekend. If their pass rushers continue to have productive afternoons, the path to success against the Bears’ offense becomes much smoother. 

All-22 review: How the Jaguars can beat the Colts

All-22 review: How the Jaguars can beat the Colts

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter Week 5 as the only winless team in the NFL following their 24-20 defeat at Houston last Sunday. 

But not all hope is lost in Jacksonville as the Jaguars head into a potentially favorable matchup against Indianapolis.

Jacksonville has not played functional, sound football this year, although we saw the Jaguars’ offensive identity begin to emerge in their loss to the Texans.

This offense can balance the run with a dose of play-action and can take advantage of favorable explosive mismatches. If the Jaguars want to avoid sinking to 0-5 this weekend, their offensive game plan from last week gives them the best chance to win.

Sunday presents a Colts team without star running back Jonathan Taylor, likely without starting quarterback Anthony Richardson and with an underperforming defense that could lend the Jaguars their first win of the season.

Jaguars Wire reviewed the All-22 to present a few ways for Jacksonville to secure a victory against Indianapolis. 

Lean on Trevor Lawrence and the rushing attack

The focus of this film review begins with the $275 million man, quarterback Trevor Lawrence, whose play is under scrutiny after a rough start to the season. It seems he is pressing as a passer, staring down targets and playing flat-footed at times. His footwork has certainly become a concern.

Lawrence has also shown to bail from clean pockets and put even more stress on his offense. Despite offering the pre-snap acumen required to operate as an NFL quarterback, he has been inconsistent with his post-snap awareness this season.

Some have called the former No. 1 draft selection “broken,” and while that might be the case right now, his issues are fixable.

Surprisingly enough, it is Lawrence and Jacksonville’s run game that makes the Jaguars go. If he can get into a stretch within games where he can play in rhythm more consistently, this unit will look much improved.

Using play-action more frequently could help with this as the Colts’ defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to go 21-for-35 with 298 yards, one touchdown and one interception against such calls this year.

Entering Sunday, the Colts rank dead-last in the NFL in yards-per-game allowed, next-to-last in rushing yards and rushes of 10-plus yards allowed, and 25th in passing yards allowed. 

Indianapolis’ defense has underperformed relative to its expectations which has cost the Colts games to this point. Jaguars running backs Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby could be in for plenty of touches and big play opportunities, accordingly. 

Jacksonville enters the weekend ranked No. 2 in football in rushing yards per play and No. 9 in team rushes of 10-plus yards. This is an advantageous matchup for the Jaguars’ run game to explode onto the scene.

Jaguars’ improved trench play vs. Colts’ underperforming defensive front

One of the bright spots from Sunday’s loss to Houston was the steady improvement of Jacksonville’s offensive line and the trenches overall. In general, the Jaguars’ front five displayed better consistency in pass protection while opening up rushing lanes for Etienne and Bigsby. 

Offensive tackles Anton Harrison and Cam Robinson were specifically better, especially in their pass sets moving rushers beyond the arc and giving Lawrence clean pockets. The offensive line also did a better job handling games such as twists and stunts, displaying better communication on this front. 

However, when the offense looked to run a play-action with a set-slide protection, the line did not wash defenders out as cleanly as it needed to, allowing pressure on Lawrence almost immediately.

Still, this was the offensive line’s best performance of the season and the unit must build on it, especially against a subpar Colts defense.

Defensively, coordinator Ryan Nielsen knows how to make offenses one-dimensional. That’s what Jacksonville will have to do against Indianapolis’ rushing attack.

With players like linebacker Devin Lloyd and safety Darnell Savage Jr. expected to return from injury, the Jaguars should be able to limit the Colts’ big play opportunities on the ground.

The Jaguars’ consistent defensive line rotation has generated plenty of pressure from the four-man fronts deployed. Rookie interior lineman Maason Smith flashed at times against Houston, including an impressive swim move in the first quarter that got pressure on C.J. Stroud. He could present an intriguing rotational rush threat on passing downs against the Colts. 

Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker were fantastic last Sunday with Walker producing a team-high seven pressures on 33 pass rushes and Hines-Allen recording six pressures on 19 rushes. Hines-Allen cleared concussion protocol on Saturday and is set to play.

Target Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas Jr. 

The Colts’ passing defense remains an underwhelming unit in 2024 and that should leave Kirk and Thomas licking their chops at the opportunity for a productive weekend. Indianapolis has allowed the fifth-most yards in downfield passing attempts at 13.3, per Next Gen Stats.

Kirk saw his targets increase from four and three in Weeks 1 and 2 respectively to 10 and 12 against Buffalo and Houston. Kirk is very good at setting up defenders with hesitation moves and fakes along with great short-area quickness.

Furthermore, Kirk is light on his feet and offers smooth acceleration in and out of breaks. He was open on almost every target last week. Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor must utilize him in motions and grant him free releases to create potential mismatches. 

Thomas is already the most talented playmaker on the roster four games into his career, as he flashed vertical separation and the necessary quickness to cut routes short and work back to the football.

Next Gen Stats shows Thomas is leading all rookies in deep directions and receiving yards this season while his average route depth is the third-deepest among first-year receivers. His 16.2 yards per catch rank No. 14 among all qualifying NFL pass-catchers. 

When Jacksonville attacks Indianapolis through the air Sunday, Trevor Lawrence needs to continue looking Kirk and Thomas’ way.

Key matchups for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills

Key matchups for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills

After starting the regular season 0-2, the Jacksonville Jaguars look to get in the win column for the first time this year as they travel to Buffalo for Monday Night Football in Week 3. 

This week the Jaguars are still searching for their identity on offense and are currently facing scrutiny for their inconsistent offensive execution and play-calling. This could prove detrimental in trying to keep up with the Bills, which feature one of the powerhouse offenses in the AFC, led by quarterback Josh Allen.

Week 3 of the regular season is now a must-win for the Jaguars and they must prove they can contend with top teams in the conference like the Bills. Finding their offensive identity and consistency will be key, and if they fail to do so at this crucial point of the season on the national stage, it will become fair to wonder if their issues can be fixed this year.

With that in mind, Jaguars Wire is here to identify three key matchups for Jacksonville’s Week 3 road matchup against Buffalo, which the Jaguars must win to avoid digging themselves into a deeper hole. 

Jaguars WR Christian Kirk vs. Bills’ linebackers and slot cornerback

Through two games, the Jaguars starting slot receiver has just two catches on seven targets for 29 yards. While it is early in the season, Kirk’s lack of significant targets has been concerning, especially amid Jacksonville’s offensive struggles. 

Yet, Monday night presents an opportunity for Jaguars offensive coordinator Press Taylor and head coach Doug Pederson to get Kirk heavily involved in the offensive game plan.

The Bills’ man coverage rate this season is just 20 percent as they remain a zone-heavy, two-high safety team that will leave plenty of green grass. That creates an advantage for Kirk, who has a knack for identifying the soft spots in zone coverage. 

A top target in the middle of the field for quarterback Trevor Lawrence over the last two seasons, Kirk led the Jaguars with 1,108 receiving yards in 2022 and was on track for over 1,000 in 2023 before a Week 13, year-ending injury. He has proven productive and effective with an average target separation of over three yards in the last two seasons.

With linebacker Terrel Bernard and nickel corner Taron Johnson out for Monday night’s bout, Buffalo could be thin at both spots, meaning Jacksonville could open up its passing game with Kirk as the focal point.

Baylon Spector and Cam Lewis are expected to start in place of Bernard and Johnson, respectively.

Jacksonville’s defense vs. Buffalo’s offense

While the Jaguars’ offense has sputtered to this point, Jacksonville’s defense is respectable, and daring in coverage.

According to Next Gen Stats, Jacksonville aligned its outside corners in press coverage on 36 percent of snaps. That is the fourth-highest mark in the league, showing that defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen trusts his corners on an island.

The unit deploys Cover 1 coverage 53% of the time, per Hayden Winks, despite the absence of cornerback Tyson Campbell. Nielsen utilizes broad man coverage on 52.6 percent of opposing dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL.

Thus far, passers are averaging 6.5 passing yards per play against the Jaguars, ranking No. 21 in the league. Quarterbacks are struggling to score through the air against Jacksonville, though, as Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson combined to throw for one touchdown in Weeks 1-2.

Jacksonville’s man coverage will be tested against arguably the best NFL signal-caller not named Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and his offensive coordinator Joe Brady on Monday night.

Next Gen Stats show Allen producing the lowest air yards per attempt of his career at 7.4 this season, despite his career-high 73.8% completion percentage through the first two games. This shows that Brady is allowing Allen to distribute the ball around the offense and trusting receivers to compete after the catch.

Considering how difficult Allen is to defend as both a passer and runner, there’s a possibility Nielsen could veer off his man coverage path and play more zone this week. Perhaps it is unlikely given his tendencies as a play-caller, but this is something to keep in mind ahead of Monday night.

Not only will Allen present a tough task, but so will tight end Dalton Kincaid, running back James Cook and receiver Khalil Shakir. The latter owns the highest catch rate of all wide receivers in the league at 88.7 percent.

If Jacksonville can force Allen into bad decisions against its man-heavy defense and limit his rushing opportunities, the Jaguars’ struggling offense should obtain more opportunities to find a rhythm compared to previous games.

Jacksonville’s offense vs. Buffalo’s defense 

While Kirk could be the focus of the Jaguars’ passing offense against the Bills, the unit must perform better situationally across the board in its attempt to establish an identity of any sort.

It starts up front. Lawrence’s protection must improve Monday night against a strong Bills pass rush featuring Von Miller and Gregory Rousseau.

Lawrence has been sacked on a league-high 11.5 percent of dropbacks this season, according to Next Gen Stats. Perhaps Lawrence is responsible for some of the pressure he has faced, but Pro Football Focus dings Jacksonville’s offensive line for allowing six of the seven sacks he has taken.

Next Gen Stats also notes the Jaguars own the third-worst time to pressure in the NFL in 2024, 2.57 seconds.

While explosive plays have occasionally popped up from the likes of running back Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr, the Jaguars must do a better job of winning on early downs to make third downs more manageable and become less reliant on chunk gains.

Jacksonville has converted just over 26% of its third-down attempts, the fifth-worst mark in the league ahead of Denver, Atlanta, Cleveland and Carolina. The offense will sail much smoother if it can improve drastically in this area.

The Jaguars will be without versatile tight end Evan Engram again this week after suffering a hamstring injury during pregame warmups last Sunday. His absence is why Kirk will be the X-factor for the Jaguars’ passing offense, paired with the Bills’ top linebacker and nickel cornerback out. 

Pederson cannot afford his team to fall to a 0-3 record. His defense is capable of helping win games, but it is Jacksonville’s offense, Pederson’s bread and butter, costing the Jaguars the most.

That has to change on Monday night.

Ryan Nielsen looking forward to Jaguars DB Darnell Savage Jr.’s return

Ryan Nielsen looking forward to Jaguars DB Darnell Savage Jr.’s return

Following the versatile defensive back’s Week 2 absence due to a quadriceps injury, Jacksonville defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen is looking forward to having starting safety Darnell Savage Jr. back on game day.

Savage, who signed a three-year, $21.8 million free-agent deal with the Jaguars in March, experienced his injury in practice last Thursday, leading him to be ruled out against the Browns on Friday. He returned to practice in a limited fashion this week.

“Having him back, now we’ve got another guy out there who’s a good player and allows some other guys to free up in personnel packages and do things like that,” Nielsen explained on Friday.

“So, we never want to lose a guy for a game or two games or whatever it is, but happy to have him back and get him back into the role and routine of playing football and we’ll see him out there on Monday.”

Nielsen’s comment follows that of Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson, who on Thursday expressed that “hopefully” Savage will be available for Jacksonville’s Week 3, Monday Night Football matchup with Buffalo.

Although his sample size in the Jaguars’ defensive scheme is limited to one game, Savage has already emerged as a valuable, multi-positional contributor under Nielsen.

Savage logged snaps at four different defensive positions in various alignments during Week 1 against Miami: 25 as a slot cornerback, 11 as a free safety, 11 as a box safety and two as an outside linebacker.

Savaged recorded two defended passes and, according to Pro Football Focus, allowed two receptions over five targets for four yards against the Dolphins.

While he is eager to see Savage back in action, Nielsen commended rookie Jaguars cornerback Jarrian Jones for his performance in place of the starter against the Browns. Jones took the field for 57 snaps defensively in Week 2, exclusively as a slot corner.

“You always want to have good players, and he’s a good player. But last week didn’t feel like — you know, next man up, and Jarrian went out there and he performed pretty well,” Nielsen said. “As well as the group, thought we covered really well last week.”

Although Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson completed 64.7% of his passes against Jacksonville in Week 2, the Jaguars limited the quarterback to 186 passing yards with no touchdowns scored through the air.

Jones, the Jaguars’ third-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft, allowed three receptions over four targets for 26 yards to Browns pass-catchers, per PFF.

Key matchups for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns

Key matchups for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns

Coming off a tough loss in South Florida, the Jacksonville Jaguars are set for their home opener against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday as both teams look to avoid an 0-2 start. 

This week Jacksonville looks to be more consistent with its offensive production while Cleveland is again forced to deal with quarterback Deshaun Watson and his off-field issues as the Browns await the return of all-world running back Nick Chubb.

Week 2 will give both teams a better picture of what and who they are moving forward into the 2024 campaign. The Jaguars hope for better execution in their offensive approach following their blown lead to the Miami Dolphins.

With that in mind, Jaguars Wire is here to identify some key matchups for Jacksonville’s Week 2 matchup with Cleveland. Here are three matchups the Jaguars must win to avoid a winless start to the season.

Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson vs. Jacksonville’s defense

One of the key takeaways from this past Sunday was the Jaguars’ admirable defensive performance against the explosive Dolphins offense. They mostly limited significant explosive plays and generated four-man pressures through their front four.

Browns head coach and play-caller Kevin Stefanski is known for his offensive creativity and has put Watson in positions to succeed. But since returning from suspension nearly two seasons ago, the former Clemson standout has yet to return to his pre-2021 form.

Watson’s performance against the Dallas Cowboys offered a clear sign of his current abilities.

According to Next Gen Stats, Watson was pressured on 44.6% of dropbacks, finishing 5-of-17 for 22 yards against pressure while being sacked six times. His 23.2 percent dropback success rate was the lowest in a game in the Next Gen Stats era.

Watson has declined, and the Jaguars have the defense to force him off his spot and into bad decisions. Plus, Jacksonville has the athletic defenders necessary to stick with Watson in quarterback contain.

If defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen’s unit can generate pressures and rattle Watson early, it should be a good day for Jacksonville.

Jacksonville’s offensive line vs. Cleveland’s defensive line

The trenches will be a key matchup in this game but none more crucial than the Jaguars offensive line against the Browns stellar pass rush, led by All-Pro defensive end Myles Garrett.

Jacksonville’s front five did a decent job of protecting franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence against the Dolphins, allowing a pressure rate of 32%, ranking No. 14 in the NFL in Week 1.

However, Cleveland defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is arguably the best in the game at his position and finds ways of consistently getting to the QB. Against the Cowboys, most of the Browns’ pressures came from a defensive front featuring three defensive ends and one defensive tackle.

Having an extra edge rusher lined up at the three-technique could prove disadvantageous for Jacksonville’s guards due to the speed and quickness of Cleveland’s rushers. Schwartz will likely deploy this fairly often in passing situations.

The biggest concern will be if the Jaguars can limit Garrett, arguably the best pass rusher in the world. This offensive line will also have to account for defensive tackles Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris, and defensive ends Za’Darius Smith and Alex Wright.

Jacksonville seems up for the challenge considering its Week 1 performance. Right guard Brandon Scherff must have a better game after an up-and-down showing in Miami. However, left guard Ezra Cleveland and center Mitch Morse held their own against the Dolphins and can build upon their performances this week. 

Tackles Cam Robinson and Anton Harrison will have a lot on their plate Sunday, but another solid day from these five linemen could signal success for the Jaguars in Week 2. 

Jacksonville’s skill players vs. Cleveland’s back-seven

Once again, the Jaguars’ group of offensive skill players will face another tough secondary only this time on their home turf.

The Browns have a defensive unit that allowed a negative .20 expected points added (EPA) per play allowed. Their back seven is led by star linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and three-time Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward with more quality defenders roaming the second and third level.

For most teams, including Jacksonville, facing Cleveland’s back seven is a tall task. Nevertheless, the Jaguars have last week’s first-half performance to go off of when it comes to taking on other stout back seven defenders.

Rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. must be a focal point Sunday. The offense was humming when he was being targeted and he adds a level of explosiveness and playmaking ability this unit has not had in quite some time. His zero targets in the second half were inexcusable.

This weekend could be a good time for the Jaguars to deploy Evan Engram into the passing game in his new versatile role as the F-move tight end and fullback. He could be the X-factor against a tough Browns secondary.

Finding explosive plays and getting the ball to the team’s best playmakers will be another crucial aspect in their pursuit of a home-opener victory.Â